Kerry Takes the Lead In New Newsweek Poll (47-45)

[RINGLEADER]

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1nw.htm

If the other polls support this finding I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bush is cooked. I said I'd give my final prediction on Oct. 15, but if Kerry takes the lead in multiple polls I don't see how Bush gets out from under. He's not going to reverse the trend in the debates. The Democracy Corp poll and the ABC News poll still have Bush ahead, but flash polls are of less importance than those conducted in the days after the debate. Kerry still trails by double-digits on a whole host of issues, but people - at least in this poll - seem ready and willing to look past whatever problems they have with Kerry to get rid of Bush.

:shrug:

[RINGLEADER]

That's an 8-point swing since the last Newsweek poll a month ago.

[|Zach|]

Whoa

[Michael Michigan]

I'm going to guess this is an outlier for now.

The sample looks good, but no way Kerry leads among men.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041002/nysa013_1.html



Women----Bush 44 Kerry 48 Nader 1 Undc 7

Men------Bush 45 Kerry 47 Nader 2 Undc 6

[FringeNC]

I'm going to guess this is an outlier for now.

The sample looks good, but no way Kerry leads among men.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041002/nysa013_1.html



Women----Bush 44 Kerry 48 Nader 1 Undc 7

Men------Bush 45 Kerry 47 Nader 2 Undc 6

Didn't Dole even win the male vote?

[Jenson71]

More proof women should have very little rights in the world.

[memyselfI]

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1nw.htm

If the other polls support this finding I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bush is cooked.

:shrug:

You are forgetting the OBL trump card? :hmmm:

[Hydrae]

More proof women should have very little rights in the world.


With an attitude like that at your age, I feel sorry for you when you decide that you would like to get one of those "women" to go out on a date with you.

[Jenson71]

I'm just kidding. I don't want Denise to put one of her witch spells on me. :D

[Hydrae]

I'm going to guess this is an outlier for now.

The sample looks good, but no way Kerry leads among men.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041002/nysa013_1.html



Women----Bush 44 Kerry 48 Nader 1 Undc 7

Men------Bush 45 Kerry 47 Nader 2 Undc 6


So for the unenlightened, why do you say that?

[Jenson71]

With an attitude like that at your age, I feel sorry for you when you decide that you would like to get one of those "women" to go out on a date with you.

You don't need to ask. All you need is duct tape and a strong rope.

[RINGLEADER]

Not that I want to revist the whole partisan weighting issue again, but the last poll had 391 Republicans, 300 Democrats and 270 Independents. The new poll has 345 Republicans, 364 Democrats and 278 Independents. That's an 11.4% shift from one poll to the next. I'd venture that if you applied this poll's weighting to the last one, or the last one's to this one, you'd get pretty much the same result.

But the story will be Kerry is ahead which is good for Kerry.

And it could be that a huge partisan shift occured because of the debate. The men's numbers lead me to believe that this poll might have some problems, but it won't surprise me too terribly if others show something similar in the days ahead.

[Michael Michigan]

So for the unenlightened, why do you say that?

The GOP always carries the male vote.

And if the women's vote is as close as this poll says, Kerry leading only 48-44, then this poll likley has some problems.

For instance Gore won the women's vote by 11 points in 2000, Bush won the men's vote by 11 points in 2000.



I'm guessing Bush is still up by 2-4 points.

[BigOlChiefsfan]

I credit this Kerry dead-bounce to recent reruns of Johnny Nuance (http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2004/10/classic_tv_scri.html)

[memyselfI]

I'm just kidding. I don't want Denise to put one of her witch spells on me. :D

I knew you were kidding...

most men who actually feel this way usually are not 'man' enough to come out and say it. :thumb:

[Michael Michigan]

Didn't Dole even win the male vote?

I think so. I can't find the exact numbers though.

http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/Facts/Elections/gg2000.html

The gender gap in the 2000 presidential race was of the same magnitude as the 11 percentage point gender gap in the 1996 presidential race and much larger than the 4 percentage point gender gap evident in the 1992 presidential race. (See CAWP Fact Sheet entitled "The Gender Gap.")

http://starbulletin.com/98/08/26/editorial/borreca.html

For instance, there was an 11-point gender gap between women favoring Bill Clinton and men voting for Bob Dole in 1996, according to the Center for the American Woman and Politics at Rutgers Unversity.

[Michael Michigan]

I knew you were kidding...

most men who actually feel this way usually are not 'man' enough to come out and say it. :thumb:


I'm man enough to say it--don't put a witch spell on me.

;)

[Hel'n]

The Race is On
With voters widely viewing Kerry as the debate’s winner, Bush’s lead in the NEWSWEEK poll has evaporated

WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Updated: 6:04 p.m. ET Oct. 2, 2004


Oct. 2 - With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race.

Removing Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who draws 2 percent of the vote, widens the Kerry-Edwards lead to three points with 49 percent of the vote versus the incumbent’s 46 percent. Four weeks ago the Republican ticket, coming out of a successful convention in New York, enjoyed an 11-point lead over Kerry-Edwards with Bush pulling 52 percent of the vote and the challenger just 41 percent.

Among the three-quarters (74 percent) of registered voters who say they watched at least some of Thursday’s debate, 61 percent see Kerry as the clear winner, 19 percent pick Bush as the victor and 16 percent call it a draw. After weeks of being portrayed as a verbose “flip-flopper” by Republicans, Kerry did better than a majority (56 percent) had expected. Only about 11 percent would say the same for the president’s performance while more than one-third (38 percent) said the incumbent actually did worse that they had expected. Thirty-nine percent of Republicans felt their man out-debated the challenger but a full third (33 percent) say they felt Kerry won.


Kerry’s perceived victory may be attributed to the fact that, by a wide margin (62 percent to 26 percent), debate watchers felt the senator came across as more confident than the president. More than half (56 percent) also see Kerry has having a better command of the facts than Bush (37 percent). As a result, the challenger’s favorability ratings (52 percent, versus 40 percent unfavorable) are better than Bush’s, who at 49 percent (and 46 percent unfavorable), has dipped below the halfway mark for the first time since July. Kerry, typically characterized as aloof and out of touch by his opponents, came across as more personally likeable than Bush (47 percent to the president’s 41 percent).

In fact, Kerry’s numbers have improved across the board, while Bush’s vulnerabilities have become more pronounced. The senator is seen as more intelligent and well-informed (80 percent, up six points over last month, compared to Bush’s steady 59 percent); as having strong leadership skills (56 percent, also up 6 points, but still less than Bush’s 62 percent) and as someone who can be trusted to make the right calls in an international crisis (51 percent, up five points and tied with Bush).

Meanwhile, Bush’s approval ratings have dropped to below the halfway mark (46 percent) for the first time since the GOP convention in late August. Nearly half of all voters (48 percent) say they do not want to see Bush re-elected, while 46 percent say they do. Still, a majority of voters (55 percent versus 29 percent) believe the president will be re-hired on Nov. 2.

Neither man was seen as a particularly stronger leader (44 percent Bush, 47 percent Kerry), more negative (37 percent Bush, 36 percent Kerry) or more honest (43 percent Bush, 45 percent Kerry).

Perhaps because the debate topic focused on foreign policy—and largely was dominated by the war in Iraq—that issue rates higher as a voter concern than it did a month ago. Twenty percent of all voters say Iraq is the issue that will most determine their vote, up from 15 percent. Tied with Iraq is the economy (21 percent), and still leading the list is terrorism and homeland security (26 percent). And key for the president is the fact that he is the preferred man on the issues more important to voters. On homeland security, Bush is preferred 52 percent to Kerry’s 40 percent (a significant spread, but a narrowing one: Last month the spread, in the president’s favor, was 58 percent to 34 percent). On Iraq Bush is preferred 49 percent to 44 percent (compared to 54 percent versus 39 percent a month ago). Kerry is even with the president on the question of which man is better suited to guide foreign policy in general (48 percent Bush to the challenger’s 46 percent) and clamping down on the proliferation of nuclear materiel (47 percent Bush, 43 percent Kerry).

Where Kerry clearly leads is on domestic issues, which will be the focus of the third debate on Oct. 13, in Tempe, Ariz. The Democrat is preferred to Bush by double-digit spreads on who would be better at handling the economy (52 percent to 39 percent), foreign competition (54 percent to 36 percent) and health care (56 percent to 34 percent).

Although the subject of the draft was only briefly addressed during the debate, four in ten voters (38 percent) believe that because of the war in Iraq—which 50 percent of all voters now view as unnecessary—a second Bush administration would reinstate the draft. Just 18 percent feel the same would happen if Kerry were elected. Nearly two thirds (62 percent) feel a draft should not be considered at this time and 28 percent said a draft should at least be considered. But only 46 percent feel going to war was the right decision in the first place with just as many (45 percent) under the impression that the administration deliberately misled the nation into war with falsified evidence of weapons of mass destruction.

Finally, echoing a recurring refrain of Kerry’s, more than half of all voters (51 percent) think the Bush administration has not done enough to engage other nations (43 percent feel they have done enough or even gone too far in that direction as it is).

For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,013 registered voters aged 18 and older between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

© 2004 Newsweek, Inc.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6159637/site/newsweek/

[MadProphetMargin]

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1nw.htm

If the other polls support this finding I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bush is cooked.

Only one poll counts.

[chiefqueen]

I believe I posted yesterday that Bush performed so poorly that Kerry would reclaim the lead.

Unfortunately I expect this lead to grow up until 11/2. History will note this campaign as one the completely changed in just one night (80 min. to be precise).

[MadProphetMargin]

I believe I posted yesterday that Bush performed so poorly that Kerry would reclaim the lead.

Unfortunately I expect this lead to grow up until 11/2. History will note this campaign as one the completely changed in just one night (80 min. to be precise).

Naw. I'm a lib, and even I'm not willing to say that Kerry's won it.

There's still 30 days to go...one, or both, candidates still have time to make total asses of themselves...so it ain't NEARLY over.

[the Talking Can]

I don't spend any time watching or worrying about polls because a) I don't understand the "science" of polls enough to know if any particular poll is worth paying attention to, b) polls are irrelevant almost as soon as they are taken and c) they have nothing to do with anyone's actual understanding of an issue....BUT, they do seem to guide the media's reporting of the race....for the last couple of weeks the media has been reporting that Bush has a huge lead and is unstoppable and Godlike etc....at least now, regardless of the "validity'" of this poll, the media will do something other than say "Look how awesome Bush is"....that's worth something, I guess...though I'd rather they actually reported on stories...guess I'm old school that way

[Taco John]

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1nw.htm

If the other polls support this finding I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bush is cooked. I said I'd give my final prediction on Oct. 15, but if Kerry takes the lead in multiple polls I don't see how Bush gets out from under. He's not going to reverse the trend in the debates. The Democracy Corp poll and the ABC News poll still have Bush ahead, but flash polls are of less importance than those conducted in the days after the debate. Kerry still trails by double-digits on a whole host of issues, but people - at least in this poll - seem ready and willing to look past whatever problems they have with Kerry to get rid of Bush.

:shrug:



He's still got his brother in Florida, so there's hope for him yet...

[Taco John]

The sample looks good, but no way Kerry leads among men.



ROFL

I think these results show the real mood of America, men and women. Kerry showed on Thursday that he's a viable alternative. A president who does the important homework and can rise to the challenge... Before Thursday, nobody knew if he could rise to the occassion.

I mentioned a momentum shift earlier... Polls had started showing it slightly prior to the debate... But the debates added rocket fuel to it.

Bush has a chance. Pulling Osama out of his ass in October would give him a huge bump. Probably seal it for him... Save that, it'll be a tight one all the way.

[MadProphetMargin]

ROFL

Save that, it'll be a tight one all the way.


With any luck at all, it'll be tied up in recounts & courts for at least 6 months.

ROFL

[Metrolike]

Like I said, polls don't mean shiat.

[Taco John]

The other thing that would give Bush a huge bounce would be the discovery of WMDs...

[Hydrae]

Like I said, polls don't mean shiat.


Unless they are strippers poles! :)

[Michael Michigan]

I think these results show the real mood of America, men and women.

You base this on what?

[go bowe]

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1nw.htm

If the other polls support this finding I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bush is cooked. * * *i know i must be hallucinating... http://instagiber.net/smiliesdotcom/contrib/Bizkit/confused.gif http://instagiber.net/smiliesdotcom/contrib/Bizkit/confused.gif http://instagiber.net/smiliesdotcom/contrib/Bizkit/confused.gif http://instagiber.net/smiliesdotcom/contrib/Bizkit/confused.gif http://instagiber.net/smiliesdotcom/contrib/Bizkit/confused.gif

[Pitt Gorilla]

USA Today has Kerry overtaking Bush after the first debate.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-30-debate-poll.htm

[whoman69]

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1nw.htm

If the other polls support this finding I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bush is cooked. I said I'd give my final prediction on Oct. 15, but if Kerry takes the lead in multiple polls I don't see how Bush gets out from under. He's not going to reverse the trend in the debates. The Democracy Corp poll and the ABC News poll still have Bush ahead, but flash polls are of less importance than those conducted in the days after the debate. Kerry still trails by double-digits on a whole host of issues, but people - at least in this poll - seem ready and willing to look past whatever problems they have with Kerry to get rid of Bush.

:shrug:
Wow, already to bury Bush. Just a few weeks ago you called it in the bad. Alot can still happen. Bush was clearly not ready for this debate and was only able to memorize about 5 sound bite moments and did not come with the facts to back himself up. This campaign can still turn on a well place jab or horrible miscommunication in the next two debates. And Bush better wipe that look off his face in the next two debates.

[RINGLEADER]

Wow, already to bury Bush. Just a few weeks ago you called it in the bad. Alot can still happen. Bush was clearly not ready for this debate and was only able to memorize about 5 sound bite moments and did not come with the facts to back himself up. This campaign can still turn on a well place jab or horrible miscommunication in the next two debates. And Bush better wipe that look off his face in the next two debates.


I've never thought it was "in the bag"...and I'm not writing Bush off...but the problem that he's going to have is changing the dynamic. There are only so many pivotal moments when people are going to pay attention long enough to reward one side or the other. I knew Kerry would smoke Bush, and I'm not sure if his superior debating skills will overcome his screwy (IMO of course) ideas. The reason I'm negative on Bush - if the other polls end up showing the same kind of movement for Kerry - is that he is not going to reclaim the momentum in any of the debates IMO. Kerry is very skilled in conveying his POV...even when he takes multiple positions within the same 90 minutes (Iraq was a mistake...Iraq was not a mistake...Iraq was a collassal error). Bush is not. I said some days ago that this race was interesting in the sense that Kerry supporters can't believe he wasn't leading a buffoon like Bush, while Bush supporters should have been surprised that the prez wasn't leading by more over a guy running such an incompetent campaign.

Kerry's debating skills don't change the fact that his economic, foreign policy, terrorism and Iraq "plans" are really political parlour tricks...but there are some in the population - as I said before - that are interested in a fresh start as long as they can trust the guy replacing them. Kerry made inroads to that voter I think. Whether he can sustain them is another thing. But I do believe that by the middle of this month, whoever is leading, is going to win barring some dynamic-shifting event in the other direction.

[RINGLEADER]

So far we have:

ABC News - Bush loses 0.0
Democracy Corps (Carville) - Bush loses 2.0
Newsweek - Bush loses 8.0
LA Times - Bush loses 1.0 among registered voters who followed debate
Rasmussen - Bush loses .6 (although only 1/3 of the sample was after debate)

BTW, the Newsweek poll has a shift in partisan weighting that is equal to 11.4% in the Democrats favor. If you refigure the numbers from the last poll that showed Bush up 11% using the partisan weighting of this poll then Kerry gained 1-2%. But I'm real torn between weighted and unweighted polls. There's a certain scientific realism in the weighted polls, but they do diminish the ability for one side or the other to actually "convert" people from one party to the other. That's part of the reason why the Rasmussen and Zogby numbers hardly move. The only way to move the numbers is to get a sizeable portion of the other party over to your side because the amount of movement amoung independents is small. The Newsweek/Time/Gallup polls base partisan weighting on the respondants to a larger extent, but you have to deal with the wilder shifts like the ones Bush enjoyed the past two months and the one Kerry is enjoying now (in the Newsweek poll).