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View Full Version : Oops, this was unexpected, NOT. Bush takes 4 point lead.


jjjayb
10-15-2004, 07:48 AM
Sorry for the Cliched MeMe type title. Couldn't resist. New Reuters poll shows Bush has taken a 4 point lead.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/nm/20041015/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc

Donger
10-15-2004, 07:54 AM
Sorry for the Cliched MeMe type title. Couldn't resist. New Reuters poll shows Bush has taken a 4 point lead.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/nm/20041015/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc

"An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise."

How can this be? I keep being told that Kerry won all three debates? Perhaps folks think won the debates (stylistically) but didn't believe him?

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 08:13 AM
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out. :clap:

Donger
10-15-2004, 08:15 AM
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out. :clap:

Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

Soupnazi
10-15-2004, 08:17 AM
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out. :clap:

spin, spin, spin

roman gnome
10-15-2004, 08:26 AM
"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

The checks are in the mail!

Baby Lee
10-15-2004, 08:31 AM
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out. :clap:
The people dumb enough to need that as motivation will sit there until November 5th or 6th and then say "d@mn, I should've voted. Our democratic traditions demand I be given a do-over."

mlyonsd
10-15-2004, 08:41 AM
IMHO I've always thought polls didn't matter till after the debates. That being said if Bush pulls ahead by 5 points it's over.

John_Wayne
10-15-2004, 08:42 AM
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out. :clap: She also wants the Chiefs to be down by 3 TD's going into the 4th quarter just to make sure they play hard. :cuss:

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 09:00 AM
spin, spin, spin

No it's not. I posted this opinion BEFORE this poll yesterday or the day before when it was thought that Kerry had the lead in most polls.

I think Kerry needs to be a couple of points down or tied in order for Dems to be motivated to get out the vote. Seeing that their candidate is not setting them on fire the thought of them NOT going to the poll and DUHbya squeaking by is enough to get people out to the polls.

Dems are not like Pavlov's dog where you throw out a few sound bites full of red meat and they salivate...

seems DUHbya has rallied his base doing this. :hmmm:

Brock
10-15-2004, 09:00 AM
Landslide.

RINGLEADER
10-15-2004, 09:00 AM
"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.


Maybe the Dems can hold another convention to introduce Kerry to the American people...

RINGLEADER
10-15-2004, 09:06 AM
No it's not. I posted this opinion BEFORE this poll yesterday or the day before when it was thought that Kerry had the lead in most polls.

I think Kerry needs to be a couple of points down or tied in order for Dems to be motivated to get out the vote. Seeing that their candidate is not setting them on fire the thought of them NOT going to the poll and DUHbya squeaking by is enough to get people out to the polls.


I understand what you're saying D-Nise, but I don't agree with you at all. Kerry's problem is his base and right now he's having trouble in multiple polls getting it above 80-85%. If Kerry goes into election day down 5-6 points that's going to depress his turnout even further. If the perception is that Kerry's losing ground it won't energize his base, it will keep them at home.

That said, I wouldn't put much stock into the tracking polls. Not because they're not fun to quote when you're guy's ahead...but because of some research I read recently that showed they were pretty much all wrong in 2000.

KCWolfman
10-15-2004, 09:10 AM
Dems are not like Pavlov's dog where you throw out a few sound bites full of red meat and they salivate...


She said while garnering registrants from concert venues and potato chip giveaways.

mlyonsd
10-15-2004, 09:13 AM
I understand what you're saying D-Nise, but I don't agree with you at all. Kerry's problem is his base and right now he's having trouble in multiple polls getting it above 80-85%. If Kerry goes into election day down 5-6 points that's going to depress his turnout even further. If the perception is that Kerry's losing ground it won't energize his base, it will keep them at home.

That said, I wouldn't put much stock into the tracking polls. Not because they're not fun to quote when you're guy's ahead...but because of some research I read recently that showed they were pretty much all wrong in 2000.

I agree...the farther Bush is ahead the less the dem base will want to break away from Comedy Central reruns.

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 09:13 AM
but....but....but.....HOW can that be?

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 09:15 AM
Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

I'm one of the 21% of Democrats who not only have a hard time voting for Kerry...I've already decided I won't.

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 09:19 AM
I understand what you're saying D-Nise, but I don't agree with you at all. Kerry's problem is his base and right now he's having trouble in multiple polls getting it above 80-85%. If Kerry goes into election day down 5-6 points that's going to depress his turnout even further. If the perception is that Kerry's losing ground it won't energize his base, it will keep them at home.

That said, I wouldn't put much stock into the tracking polls. Not because they're not fun to quote when you're guy's ahead...but because of some research I read recently that showed they were pretty much all wrong in 2000.


Ah but the perception of Kerry losing is not that at all. He's within the MOE which he has been for weeks. He's actually closed the gap and it's statistically tied. My point is is that if he's ahead he risks more than if he's a couple of points behind and people see that he's close and might need their vote to get him over the top. People who might be sitting on the fence who don't want to vote for Kerry but certainly don't want DUHbya to win might be inclined to sit it out if Kerry is sitting on a 2-4 point lead...

let DUHbya have it. I like being the underdog instead.

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 09:21 AM
I'm one of the 21% of Democrats who not only have a hard time voting for Kerry...I've already decided I won't.

But will you be voting FOR DUHbya?

RINGLEADER
10-15-2004, 09:28 AM
Ah but the perception of Kerry losing is not that at all. He's within the MOE which he has been for weeks. He's actually closed the gap and it's statistically tied. My point is is that if he's ahead he risks more than if he's a couple of points behind and people see that he's close and might need their vote to get him over the top. People who might be sitting on the fence who don't want to vote for Kerry but certainly don't want DUHbya to win might be inclined to sit it out if Kerry is sitting on a 2-4 point lead...

let DUHbya have it. I like being the underdog instead.


Okay...if that's what you want to believe.

What if the polls show Bush ahead outside the margin of error next week though? What if the polls show Bush ahead by 10 the day before the election?

I'm not making a prediction, just testing your theory... ;)

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 09:28 AM
But will you be voting FOR DUHbya?

Yup--because of homeland security and the cause of democracy in the ME; short term things aren't pretty but there is light at the end of the tunnel....and, no, it ain't a train either.

stevieray
10-15-2004, 09:32 AM
Yup--because of homeland security and the cause of democracy in the ME; short term things aren't pretty but there is light at the end of the tunnel....and, no, it ain't a train either.

Interesting, I just had a client who protested the Vietnam war, and she is voting for Bush for the same reasons.

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 11:57 AM
Interesting, I just had a client who protested the Vietnam war, and she is voting for Bush for the same reasons.

And I haven't been polled; nor anyone I know.

Problem is, we tend to blow off polling organizations if they do call. Wonder who that will "help?" My guess is Bush....

ZepSinger
10-15-2004, 12:10 PM
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out. :clap:

Well, that's certainly one way of looking at it. :hmmm:

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 12:28 PM
Okay...if that's what you want to believe.

What if the polls show Bush ahead outside the margin of error next week though? What if the polls show Bush ahead by 10 the day before the election?

I'm not making a prediction, just testing your theory... ;)

Again, I'm stating within MOE, 2-5%. If W is ten points ahead CONSISTENTLY on many polls for many days and in many different states then I think he's won and this theory is out the window.

And I base this on what happened with Gore in 2000. Many Dems or voters who were not crazy about the guy stayed home thinking he had it in the bank...

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 12:38 PM
...And I base this on what happened with Gore in 2000. Many Dems or voters who were not crazy about the guy stayed home thinking he had it in the bank...

Are you imagining things? Bush was up 3-6% before the "October Surprise" that Gore & the rest of the party sprung to try and win soccer moms. And bein' the suckers they were/are that 25 yr old DWI drove enough of them to Al to make it close....

What election are you recalling?

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 12:41 PM
Are you imagining things? Bush was up 3-6% before the "October Surprise" that Gore & the rest of the party strung to try and win soccer moms. And bein' the suckers they were/are that 20 yr old DWI drove enough of them to Al to make it close....

What election are you recalling?

That would be MOE, wouldn't it? He was expected to pull it out in the end and he did with the popular vote. If the same thing happens again people who feel that Kerry will pull it out with other people's votes won't take the chance and stay home.

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 12:43 PM
That would be MOE, wouldn't it? He was expected to pull it out in the end and he did with the popular vote.

MOE?

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 12:43 PM
MOE?

margin of error.

IIRC Gore was the front runner again by Nov. 1st ish.

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 12:46 PM
margin of error.

3-6% consistently across 90% of the polls the week leading into the election.

The ONLY reason the election was close was enough soccer moms were snookered by the pathetic "October Surprise." I'm expecting one this time too; just hope Bush has one to answer it with.

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 12:46 PM
....
IIRC Gore was the front runner again by Nov. 1st ish.

No, you are wrong. Only one or two major polls gave the edge to Gore going in....

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 12:47 PM
3-6% consistently across 90% of the polls the week leading into the election.

The ONLY reason the election was close was enough soccer moms were snookered by the pathetic "October Surprise." I'm expecting one this time too; just hope Bush has one to answer it with.

And yet Gore still won the popular vote and lost the election in the strange manner he did.

FWIW, I think it's entirely possible DUHbya will win the popular vote and Kerry the EC this time.

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 12:48 PM
No, you are wrong. Only one or two major polls gave the edge to Gore going in....

Well thank you for clarifying because I did not remember it was 'one or two major polls' only that he was ahead in some.

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 12:48 PM
...FWIW, I think it's entirely possible DUHbya will win the popular vote and Kerry the EC this time.

I won't discount that; but a 3-5% Bush victory is more likely....thus the Electoral vote won't be that close...JMHO

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 12:49 PM
Well thank you for clarifying because I did not remember it was 'one or two major polls' only that he was ahead in some.

If I recall, Zogby was the only one that had it right two-three days out; a couple of other caught it the MORNING of the election IIRC.

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 12:51 PM
If I recall, Zogby was the only one that had it right two-three days out; a couple of other caught it the MORNING of the election IIRC.

I honestly don't remember specifics. Four years ago is a lifetime in my household...too much going on. :eek: ;)

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 12:52 PM
I honestly don't remember specifics. Four years ago is a lifetime in my household...too much going on. :eek: ;)

Were I not such a political wonk, I could relate.

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 12:55 PM
Were I not such a political wonk, I could relate.

I am too but I think some of that stuff was blacked out...to avoid Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome. ;)

Raiderhader
10-15-2004, 01:28 PM
Landslide.


Yep.

jettio
10-15-2004, 01:35 PM
Are you imagining things? Bush was up 3-6% before the "October Surprise" that Gore & the rest of the party sprung to try and win soccer moms. And bein' the suckers they were/are that 25 yr old DWI drove enough of them to Al to make it close....

What election are you recalling?

Interesting use of language.

Don't betray your true political affiliation after describing yourself as a Democrat who can't vote for the clearly better candidate, Kerry.

jettio
10-15-2004, 01:40 PM
3-6% consistently across 90% of the polls the week leading into the election.

The ONLY reason the election was close was enough soccer moms were snookered by the pathetic "October Surprise." I'm expecting one this time too; just hope Bush has one to answer it with.

How exactly was Bush's DUI scandal a planned October Surprise, Mr. Democrat?

You had the nerve to criticize me in a thread and you can't even build a name for yourself without being a self-conscious phony.

DonksRCrap
10-15-2004, 01:50 PM
How exactly was Bush's DUI scandal a planned October Surprise, Mr. Democrat?

You had the nerve to criticize me in a thread and you can't even build a name for yourself without being a self-conscious phony.

Planned? Because operatives in our party held onto the story until 10 days before the election. Go back and read about it.

Phony? Yeah, I know to the party wackos and radicals us DLC types, John Breaux, Evan Byah, Zell Miller types are not considered real Democrats. And it's precisely that sort of condescension and arrrogance which caused us to vote for Reagan and the Bushes for President, although many of us still vote for the party at the state and local level.

Taco Bell
10-15-2004, 02:44 PM
Hmmmm

Taco Bell
10-15-2004, 02:48 PM
Election 2004

National Political Tracking Data

Updated daily by Noon Eastern

Last Update Friday

Click on Topic for Details

Presidential Tracking Bush 49 Kerry 46
Congress Dem 44 GOP 42
President Bush Job Approval 54
Electoral College Bush 240 - Kerry 194
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 53 Unfavorable 46
Kerry Favorable 50 Unfavorable 48
Battleground States Bush 47 Kerry 47
Right Track? Right 43 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 51 Kerry 39
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 53 Kerry 42
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 52 Terrorists 26
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 44 Poor 44
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 42 Poor 41

www.rasmussenreports.com

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 02:51 PM
Planned? Because operatives in our party held onto the story until 10 days before the election. Go back and read about it.

Phony? Yeah, I know to the party wackos and radicals us DLC types, John Breaux, Evan Byah, Zell Miller types are not considered real Democrats. And it's precisely that sort of condescension and arrrogance which caused us to vote for Reagan and the Bushes for President, although many of us still vote for the party at the state and local level.

Uh, a real Democrat would not put Evan Byah and Zellot Miller in the same category. :banghead:

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 02:53 PM
Election 2004

National Political Tracking Data

Updated daily by Noon Eastern

Last Update Friday

Click on Topic for Details

Presidential Tracking Bush 49 Kerry 46
Congress Dem 44 GOP 42
President Bush Job Approval 54
Electoral College Bush 240 - Kerry 194
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 53 Unfavorable 46
Kerry Favorable 50 Unfavorable 48
Battleground States Bush 47 Kerry 47
Right Track? Right 43 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 51 Kerry 39
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 53 Kerry 42
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 52 Terrorists 26
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 44 Poor 44
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 42 Poor 41

www.rasmussenreports.com


Does this mean you are back in DUHbya's corner? FWIW, I think some of the folks here were counting Zogby as a rather unreliable poll source over the past few months.

I don't think any of these polls mean much until 11-2-04.

Taco Bell
10-15-2004, 02:56 PM
Does this mean you are back in DUHbya's corner? FWIW, I think some of the folks here were counting Zogby as a rather unreliable poll source over the past few months.

I don't think any of these polls mean much until 11-2-04.

BACK?

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 02:56 PM
BACK?

Sorry, I mixed you up with the other Taco. My bad.

Taco Bell
10-15-2004, 03:04 PM
Sorry, I mixed you up with the other Taco. My bad.

ROFL

He'll love that.

Baby Lee
10-15-2004, 03:11 PM
How exactly was Bush's DUI scandal a planned October Surprise, Mr. Democrat?

You had the nerve to criticize me in a thread and you can't even build a name for yourself without being a self-conscious phony.
Someone disagrees with jettio, and he pulls the 'phony' card. Geez, the sun must have risen in the East this morning.

Calcountry
10-15-2004, 04:36 PM
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out. :clap:
Please keep drinking that sweet Kool Aid. Oh and by the way, please , on the way back from the polls, could you keep all those sweet Democrat voters from turning over cars and launching molitof cocktails?

jettio
10-15-2004, 04:40 PM
Planned? Because operatives in our party held onto the story until 10 days before the election. Go back and read about it.

Phony? Yeah, I know to the party wackos and radicals us DLC types, John Breaux, Evan Byah, Zell Miller types are not considered real Democrats. And it's precisely that sort of condescension and arrrogance which caused us to vote for Reagan and the Bushes for President, although many of us still vote for the party at the state and local level.


I looked it up and found articles from the days the story broke, did not see anything about the story being Known and held for any period of time.

According to accounts a lawyer,with some affiliation with the democrats, tipped of a Maine TV reporter and she confirmed the story and reported it 5 days before the election.

Even though voters could very well have held B*sh's and Karen Hughes' lying sack of sh*t ways against them, that was not the explanation for differences in the polls and the election results. That would have been turnout.

And considering how Clinton and Gore were founding fathers of the DLC, funny how they were not your choice for President.

Baby Lee
10-15-2004, 05:08 PM
I looked it up and found articles from the days the story broke, did not see anything about the story being Known and held for any period of time.

According to accounts a lawyer,with some affiliation with the democrats, tipped of a Maine TV reporter and she confirmed the story and reported it 5 days before the election.
Funny, considering I knew about it months before.

jettio
10-15-2004, 05:20 PM
Funny, considering I knew about it months before.

Do tell.

What about the purported cocaine use and the procurement of an abortion before Roe v. Wade?

Probably know about that too, I suppose.

Baby Lee
10-15-2004, 05:46 PM
Do tell.

What about the purported cocaine use and the procurement of an abortion before Roe v. Wade?

Probably know about that too, I suppose.
Yeah, Larry Flynt didn't get his book out after all. When he had the doctor and the former poor bewildered teen.

MonicaLewinski
10-15-2004, 05:51 PM
Yeah, Larry Flynt didn't get his book out after all. When he had the doctor and the former poor bewildered teen.

SO is Kerry's "bimbogate" about to be let loose.....or is she still out of the country?

jettio
10-15-2004, 06:14 PM
Yeah, Larry Flynt didn't get his book out after all. When he had the doctor and the former poor bewildered teen.

Yeah when I googled to find out about the DUI, I found a site discussiing Flynt suggesting he might prove something about that. Supposedly said that he was waiting to get the lady's permission.

I had also heard that Kitty Kelley may have something about an abortion in her recent book.

So what did you know and when did you know it?