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KingPriest2
10-15-2004, 10:42 AM
Economy on Track as Retail Sales Jump

2 hours, 28 minutes ago Business - Reuters


By Alister Bull

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A surprisingly big climb in U.S. retail sales in September and a larger-than-expected gain in underlying producer prices bolstered hopes for an economic revival and views the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) will keep raising interest rates.


A Commerce Department (news - web sites) report on Friday showed U.S. retail sales rose by 1.5 percent in September, propelled by the sharpest jump in auto sales in nearly three years.


Wall Street had expected a 0.7 percent gain, following a revised 0.2 percent fall in August that was initially reported as a 0.3 percent decline.


In a separate release, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said U.S. producer prices -- those received by farms, factories and refineries -- edged up just 0.1 percent in September, held back by a big energy-price drop. But the so-called core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 percent.


Economists on Wall Street had been expecting both the overall and so-called core readings on producer prices to edge up 0.1 percent.


U.S. government bonds and the dollar dipped after the reports as dealers mulled the implication of stronger growth and pipeline price pressures for the U.S. central bank.


"This makes a December rate hike more likely," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.


The Fed meets twice more this year on Nov. 10 and Dec. 14 and futures markets are pricing at least one more quarter percentage point rise this year to take short-term rates to 2 percent.


BIGGEST SINCE MARCH


The overall retail sales increase was the biggest since March. Year-on-year, sales were up 7.7 percent, the Commerce Department said.


Economists scrutinize retail sales as a dominant component in consumer spending, which in turn makes up two-thirds of U.S. economic output and the numbers signal the third quarter ended strong as shoppers shrugged off record oil prices.


A surge in energy costs had crimped output in the second quarter, when growth slowed to 3.3 percent from 4.5 percent in the first quarter. But analysts expect a stronger performance for the period between July and September as consumption makes a bigger contribution.


"What is the most important is that the ex-auto component is twice what is expected," Low said.


Excluding autos, which can swing sharply from month to month, retail sales advanced a solid 0.6 percent after growing 0.2 percent in August. Analysts had expected this measure to edge up by just 0.3 percent.


Sales of motor vehicles and parts jumped 4.2 percent, the largest increase since October 2001 when they soared 24.2 percent as car makers offered attractive incentives to tempt buyers in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks on U.S. cities.


According to the Labor Department report, prices for finished energy goods tumbled 0.9 percent last month, while food costs inched ahead just 0.1 percent.

RINGLEADER
10-15-2004, 11:42 AM
The Kerry/DEM attacks on the economy are weak. The economy is growing more than it was during 1996 when Clinton sought re-election. The jobless rate is lower than it was during 1996 when Clinton sought re-election.

KingPriest2
10-15-2004, 11:45 AM
The Kerry/DEM attacks on the economy are weak. The economy is growing more than it was during 1996 when Clinton sought re-election. The jobless rate is lower than it was during 1996 when Clinton sought re-election.


Have you noticed that they have not posted in here and on the Greenspan thread?

Also yesterday Denise stated that Kerry was not pulling out but I proved her wrong and guess what? She never responed.

I posted a question to TCan 3 times about Kerry and his plan he never responded.


I guess they are afraid to see the truth.

memyselfI
10-15-2004, 12:06 PM
Have you noticed that they have not posted in here and on the Greenspan thread?

Also yesterday Denise stated that Kerry was not pulling out but I proved her wrong and guess what? She never responed.

I posted a question to TCan 3 times about Kerry and his plan he never responded.


I guess they are afraid to see the truth.

Oh, I see 'truth'...


-stock market under 10k 10/14/04

-deficit announced as a record $413 billion in 2004 10/14/04

-new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 15,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted level of 352,000. The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out weekly changes, rose by 4,000 to a seven-month high of 352,000. 10/14/04

-Bush administration takes emergency steps to avoid debt ceiling 10/14/04

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=2&u=/nm/20041015/bs_nm/economy_consumers_dc

U.S. Consumer Sentiment in Surprise Fall

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell more sharply in early October than analysts had expected, according to a survey released on Friday.


The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of its consumer confidence index for October was 87.5, down from September's final reading of 94.2, according to market sources who saw the subscription-only report, and well below the median market expectation of a dip to 94.0.


The index's two components also fell. The consumer expectations gauge dropped to 79.6 in early October from September final's 88.0, and the current conditions component slipped to 99.6 from the final September reading of 103.7.


"You get a sense that consumer optimism is not what it was at the beginning of the year. My guess is you should attribute some of (the) decline to stepped up conflicts, geopolitical events and the unsettled global view, as much as the bread and butter issues that usually affect these surveys," said Bob Gay, global strategist at Commerzbank Securities in New York.


Consumer confidence is considered a barometer in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the U.S. economy, although the correlation between confidence and retail sales has not been strong in recent years.


Earlier Friday, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said U.S. retail sales rose by a surprisingly big 1.5 percent in September, more than twice the increase that Wall Street had expected.

Brock
10-15-2004, 12:11 PM
Oh, I see 'truth'...


-stock market under 10k 10/14/04

-deficit announced as a record $413 billion in 2004 10/14/04


Listening to you complain about the stock market is like watching a monkey critique Baroque art.

KCWolfman
10-15-2004, 12:14 PM
Listening to you complain about the stock market is like watching a monkey critique Baroque art.
Actually, I pointed out the stock market directly to Duhnise when it was over 10K, she had an excuse then as well.

HolyHandgernade
10-15-2004, 12:16 PM
I'm not saying that this isn't correct, but it seems to me, the last three times we had a reported "rosier economic outlook" it is followed up a few weeks later along the lines of "earlier reports were overstated/overprojected/less than was thought". I hope it is better, but I've learned to take these upbeat reports with a grain of salt lately.

-HH

Amnorix
10-15-2004, 12:19 PM
I haven't read alot of info about the economic indices lately, but it seems like the recovery is gaining at least some traction. Unevenly, stop-and-start-wise, perhaps, but still, some recovery definitely seems to be occurring.

I note that this has been partially achieved by running up insane budget deficits which, if Bush has his way, will be essentially made permanent. I'd have no problem with SHORT term deficits, but that doesn't appear to be BushBaby's plan.

KCWolfman
10-15-2004, 12:22 PM
I haven't read alot of info about the economic indices lately, but it seems like the recovery is gaining at least some traction. Unevenly, stop-and-start-wise, perhaps, but still, some recovery definitely seems to be occurring.

I note that this has been partially achieved by running up insane budget deficits which, if Bush has his way, will be essentially made permanent. I'd have no problem with SHORT term deficits, but that doesn't appear to be BushBaby's plan.
It doesn't appear to be the plan of EITHER candidate.

And in fact, several news organizations have said that Kerry is overpromising, most recently a Washington Post story Feb 29. The Post said Kerry is proposing to spend at least $165 billion more on new programs in the next four years than his tax plan would pay for. Kerry disputed that, saying the Post failed to account for his plan to save $139 billion by repealing Bush's Medicare prescription drug benefit, and overestimated what Kerry planned to spend -- temporarily, he said -- to stimulate the economy.

But Kerry hasn't yet shown in detail how he would close the gap between his spending promises and his somewhat vague promise to repeal portions of Bush's tax cuts.

Kerry's health-care plan alone would cost $895 billion over 10 years, according to the Thorpe study , which Kerry has accepted. And it's not clear how that would be paid for.

Amnorix
10-15-2004, 12:23 PM
It doesn't appear to be the plan of EITHER candidate.

And in fact, several news organizations have said that Kerry is overpromising, most recently a Washington Post story Feb 29. The Post said Kerry is proposing to spend at least $165 billion more on new programs in the next four years than his tax plan would pay for. Kerry disputed that, saying the Post failed to account for his plan to save $139 billion by repealing Bush's Medicare prescription drug benefit, and overestimated what Kerry planned to spend -- temporarily, he said -- to stimulate the economy.

But Kerry hasn't yet shown in detail how he would close the gap between his spending promises and his somewhat vague promise to repeal portions of Bush's tax cuts.

Kerry's health-care plan alone would cost $895 billion over 10 years, according to the Thorpe study , which Kerry has accepted. And it's not clear how that would be paid for.


Believe me, I'm not very happy with either candidate in terms of economic matters.

KingPriest2
10-15-2004, 12:29 PM
Believe me, I'm not very happy with either candidate in terms of economic matters.


At least you are honest.

Amnorix
10-15-2004, 12:37 PM
At least you are honest.

Unless the guy was Adolf Hitler, I'm almost at the point now where I would vote for ANYBODY who said something like the following:

"Unfortunately, although none of us wish it were true, Social Security as we have known it for teh last three generations is simply doomed. The American people and American economy cannot sustain the current system indefinitely. We must accept hard facts and make difficult choices to reform it in a way that it can be permanently self-sustaining, or find a different system to supplement or assist the elderly in leading independent lives."

Honest to fugging Hell, it's beyond ridiculous. As I've posted elsewhere, it's the 1,000 pound gorilla sitting at the dinner table eating with its feet. Nobody likes it, but everyone is too scared to say anything.

And yes, I realize that neither my comment, nor yours, was really Social Security related, but it's just one example of my immense frustration with economic matters.

Soupnazi
10-15-2004, 12:49 PM
Believe me, I'm not very happy with either candidate in terms of economic matters.

Without a doubt. I've often wondered what the point was of having a conservative in office if he's going to spend money like a liberal. Simply because "my side" is in power ain't good enough.