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Bootlegged
10-17-2004, 11:43 AM
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Choice for President

Likely Registered
Voters Voters

Bush 52% 49%
Kerry 44 46
Nader 1 1

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL

FOR RELEASE: Sunday, October 17 at noon

Interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 788 likely voters and 942 registered voters, conducted by telephone on October 14-16, 2004

Although Americans think John Kerry did the best job in the debates, that has not translated into an increase in his popularity, which in turn means that he appears to have lost a little ground to Bush. Among registered voters, a 48%-48% tie is now a 49%-46% edge for Bush -- not much of a difference and, with the sampling error, not a significant change. The Gallup likely voter model, which identified those respondents who are most likely to cast a ballot, is magnifying those shifts, with a 49%-48% advantage for Kerry turning into a 52%-44% lead for Bush. What's going on?

For one thing, the charge that Kerry is too liberal, which Bush emphasized mostly in the third and last debate on Wednesday night, seems to be sticking. Nearly half say Kerry's political views are too liberal. (Four in ten say Bush is too conservative.) But didn't Kerry win the debate? Yes, as with the first two debates, the public thinks Kerry did the better job on Wednesday night. But as Al Gore learned in 2000, winning a debate on points does not necessarily translate into votes or make a candidate more popular. As in 2000, Bush's favorable ratings -- Americans view of him as a person -- went up after a debate that he lost. Kerry's favorable rating has remained flat. Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election, and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in the Gallup likely voter model.

Bush may have energized his base in the final debate at the expense of not appealing to a wider audience -- but he managed to do so in a way that made him more popular than Kerry.

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Now Oct. 9-10

Bush 52% 48%
Kerry 44 49
Nader 1 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts

QUESTION: Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats,Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Nader and Camejo, the independent candidates?

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Favorable Ratings

Now Oct. 9-10
Bush 55% 51%
Kerry 52 52

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Opinion of George W. Bush

Now Oct. 9-10
Favorable 55% 51%
Unfavorable 44 46
Sampling error: +/-3% pts

QUESTION: Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. A. George W. Bush B. John Kerry

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Kerry's Political Views

Too liberal 47%
About right 38
Too conservative 9

Sampling error: +/-3% pts

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 14-16
Bush's Political Views

Too liberal 14%
About right 41
Too conservative 40

end

Hel'n
10-17-2004, 11:56 AM
Don't know the methodology between likley and registered... sound very strange...

I see the race as tied until election day...

Bootlegged
10-17-2004, 12:36 PM
Don't know the methodology between likley and registered... sound very strange...

I see the race as tied until election day...


Great input.

Hel'n
10-17-2004, 01:08 PM
Great input.

Thank you.

Hel'n
10-17-2004, 02:27 PM
http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct17.png

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry = 253
Bush = 247

WoodDraw
10-17-2004, 03:13 PM
So it looks like Florida has a good chance of deciding the election again.

unlurking
10-17-2004, 03:14 PM
Who cares.

The Chiefs lost.

:(

RINGLEADER
10-17-2004, 03:23 PM
Don't know the methodology between likley and registered... sound very strange...

I see the race as tied until election day...


Go to RealClearPolitics.com. There have been nearly sixty polls since the GOP convention. Kerry leads in four of them. If you include the tracking polls Kerry has led 0 times in the Rasmussen tracking poll, 0 times in the TIPP poll, 3 times in the Zogby poll and 1 time in the ABC/WP poll (out of a total of 77 daily tracking poll results Kerry has led 4 times).

When you look at Gallup and Newsweek and TIPP and Battleground and ABC/WP you see that the results now aren't much different from the results before the debates (when everyone was conceding that Bush was clearly leading).

Could explain why Kerry is lying about the draft and lying about social security...dude has been reduced to making things up about what Bush will do instead of talking about what he will do.

FringeNC
10-17-2004, 03:30 PM
I don't trust the objectivity or competence of pollsters anymore. I think Bush is up, but after Gallup poll's troubles in 2000 and the way the have jumped around this election, Gallup isn't credible.

Cochise
10-17-2004, 04:02 PM
Well isn't this about the time that the libs said we could trust the polls? About 2 weeks out?

RINGLEADER
10-17-2004, 04:28 PM
I don't trust the objectivity or competence of pollsters anymore. I think Bush is up, but after Gallup poll's troubles in 2000 and the way the have jumped around this election, Gallup isn't credible.


I think Bush lost a good chunk of support to his DUI story though. Out of all the pollsters Gallup has a pretty good track record over the past seven decades. I don't think Bush is up 8, but I also don't think the winner will get more than 51% of the vote.

RINGLEADER
10-17-2004, 04:30 PM
Well isn't this about the time that the libs said we could trust the polls? About 2 weeks out?


No, no, no.

They said that we could trust those polls with enough respondants who are registered, but not likely, voters as long as the weighting on the poll ends up with a result that shows Kerry in the lead.

Otherwise say the state polls that matter and, in the event those show Bush winning, claim that polls aren't reliable.

Cochise
10-17-2004, 04:31 PM
I think Bush lost a good chunk of support to his DUI story though. Out of all the pollsters Gallup has a pretty good track record over the past seven decades. I don't think Bush is up 8, but I also don't think the winner will get more than 51% of the vote.

You have to also think that the Democrats still have yet to unleash their just before the election dirty trick too, ie. the DUI story that was sat on until just before, the Weinberger indictment, etc.

Hel'n
10-17-2004, 05:15 PM
Well isn't this about the time that the libs said we could trust the polls? About 2 weeks out?

Don't trust the polls... The race is too darn close... It can swing either way...

We'll know on Nov. 2nd...

chiefqueen
10-17-2004, 05:52 PM
You have to also think that the Democrats still have yet to unleash their just before the election dirty trick too, ie. the DUI story that was sat on until just before, the Weinberger indictment, etc.
The Dems don't have another DUI story but Laura Bush has a MAJOR skeleton in her closet, if the Dems get desparate they may go there, however it may kick them in their rears 10x worse than Kerry's statement about Mary Cheney Wed. night.

I will not elaborate.

If you've seen her biography on TV you know what it is.

Brock
10-17-2004, 06:22 PM
The Dems don't have another DUI story but Laura Bush has a MAJOR skeleton in her closet, if the Dems get desparate they may go there, however it may kick them in their rears 10x worse than Kerry's statement about Mary Cheney Wed. night.

I will not elaborate.

If you've seen her biography on TV you know what it is.

I guess you're referring to her car accident. And you are right, there is no depth the libs won't sink to if it suits their purposes. No matter what penchief says.

Hel'n
10-17-2004, 06:38 PM
I guess you're referring to her car accident. And you are right, there is no depth the libs won't sink to if it suits their purposes. No matter what penchief says.


Won't happen... There are no SSMT (SUV Soccer Moms for Truth) 527s out there...

chiefqueen
10-17-2004, 06:42 PM
I guess you're referring to her car accident. And you are right, there is no depth the libs won't sink to if it suits their purposes. No matter what penchief says.

You nailed it on the head.

unlurking
10-17-2004, 06:47 PM
Guess I missed that one.

What happened?

Wait a minute, I don't wanna know. Nevermind.

RINGLEADER
10-17-2004, 07:26 PM
http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct17.png

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry = 253
Bush = 247


Problem with your map is that the new Rasmussen poll has Bush up in Florida (Kerry 253, Bush 274), Nevada hasn't polled for Kerry in weeks (Kerry 248, Bush 279), the last Oregon poll has Bush up +5 (Kerry 241, Bush 286), but New Hampshire is now in Kerry's column (Kerry 245, Bush 286) and Iowa remains tied.

Kerry trails Ohio by a couples points, Florida by a couple points and Bush trails Michigan by a couple points, Pennsylvania by one point and Minnesota by a couple points.