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View Full Version : Bush Leads Kerry By 22 Points On Terrorism Issue In Two Polls (Battleground/Gallup)


RINGLEADER
10-17-2004, 11:02 PM
Obviously the terrorism issue isn't going to sway everyone, but with two new polls each showing Bush leading Kerry by the same margins (59-37) on the issue of who will handle the war on terror better it brings up the point that Kerry is going to have to convince a lot of people to pick the candidate that they admit is not the best to keep them safe.

BTW, both the bi-partisan Battleground poll and the Gallup internals show Bush has once again reclaimed double digit leads on leadership, Iraq (although Gallup has it closer), and most of the personality questions now favor Bush.

It'll be interesting over the next few days if the state polls better reflect the national changes the way they did before the debates when Bush held similar leads.

Bearcat2005
10-18-2004, 12:16 AM
I hope this continues, at least for another two and a half weeks! :thumb:

Hel'n
10-18-2004, 01:14 AM
You are talking a poll about a specific subset of the election issue...

You are presenting a slanted viewpoint when the election is really neck-n-neck... and will remain that way until Nov 2nd.

To intimate that Bush has any kind of significant lead in the polls is disingenuous and I expected better of you.

Cochise
10-18-2004, 07:57 AM
You are talking a poll about a specific subset of the election issue...

You are presenting a slanted viewpoint when the election is really neck-n-neck... and will remain that way until Nov 2nd.

To intimate that Bush has any kind of significant lead in the polls is disingenuous and I expected better of you.

Uhhh. the title of the thread is that Bush leads 22 points on terrorism. Is that not correct?

The only slanted viewpoint being presented is the public's viewpoint on the terrorism issue, which is slanted toward Bush by a wide margin :thumb:

Chief Henry
10-18-2004, 09:14 AM
Uhhh. the title of the thread is that Bush leads 22 points on terrorism. Is that not correct?

The only slanted viewpoint being presented is the public's viewpoint on the terrorism issue, which is slanted toward Bush by a wide margin :thumb:


(sorry for this guys, but i can't help it)


OOPS, the crickets are getting louder because of Kerrys weakness
on the war on terrorism. The lambs on the left are quit disturbed
on this monday morning.

Donger
10-18-2004, 09:17 AM
To intimate that Bush has any kind of significant lead in the polls is disingenuous and I expected better of you.

Did you see the poll (CNN?) that has Bush up by eight amongst likely voters?

siberian khatru
10-18-2004, 09:18 AM
One thing I'd like to know about every poll that comes out is what their sample is composed of. For instance, the Newsweek poll fluctuates wildly between oversampling Republicans and then oversampling Democrats. So it goes from Bush being up big to Kerry closing the gap. It's a false image comparing apples to oranges.

Unless a poll is consistent in its sampling size and makeup, I ignore it.

RINGLEADER
10-18-2004, 11:28 AM
You are talking a poll about a specific subset of the election issue...

You are presenting a slanted viewpoint when the election is really neck-n-neck... and will remain that way until Nov 2nd.

To intimate that Bush has any kind of significant lead in the polls is disingenuous and I expected better of you.


Well, on the issue of terrorism (and leadership and decisiveness and Iraq) Bush DOES have a significant lead. That was kind of the point of the post. Kerry must persuade about 10% of the electorate to vote for him despite the fact that they believe voting for Kerry will make them less safe.

The fact is that when Bush was riding high in the mid-300s of Electoral Votes last month before the debates he had a 5 point lead in the blended and averaged national polls. He now has about a 4 point lead. My point wasn't that I was trying to be predictive, but rather to say that if the state polls start to widen out for Bush in the polls his national leads will have significance. If the state polls don't show Bush taking the lead then the national poll results showing Bush reclaiming his pre-debate lead will be insignificant. I don't see how you can argue that point Hel'n. Why not wait and see if the state polls start to reflect the national polls (or wait and see if the tracking polls from TIPP and ABC/Washington Post or the Battleground poll or Gallup or NBC/WSJ or CBS/NY Times start to look like the Zogby and Rasmussen polls that show a tied race)

This just in: <a href="http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/election/article/0,1299,DRMN_36_3262788,00.html">Bush widens his lead in Colorado from 1-point to 5-points</a>.

RINGLEADER
10-18-2004, 11:39 AM
One thing I'd like to know about every poll that comes out is what their sample is composed of. For instance, the Newsweek poll fluctuates wildly between oversampling Republicans and then oversampling Democrats. So it goes from Bush being up big to Kerry closing the gap. It's a false image comparing apples to oranges.

Unless a poll is consistent in its sampling size and makeup, I ignore it.

There are two schools of thought and I there are pros and cons to each. Gallup and the newsweeklies do not weight their results. Their reasoning is that they have done research that shows that partisanship is not a strongly-held belief among a lot of voters and sentiments can change from election to election.

The upside of this thinking is that, unlike the weighted polls, you can actually change Dems into GOPers and vice-versa. When you weight the polls it is very difficult for there to be real changes in the results outside of a pretty well defined high and low (as you seen in Zogby and Rasmussen). It depresses both candidate's ability to gain any real lead because regardless of what the respondants say they get tacked up or down based on prior elections.

The downside is that, at least to me, it removes the statistically provable aspects about the electorate (even if what is known could be wildly wrong - if Republicans achieve parity with Democrats in turnout, the Zogby and Rasmussen results would go from ties to Bush being up by 4-5 points).

Bottomline, no matter how enjoyable it is to poke fun at the other side when their guy is down the pollsters that weight polls are guessing what the weighting will be. The pollsters that don't weight polls are gaining the partisan make-up from what the respondants are telling them, but when a poll like Gallup shows more GOPers than Dems it is bucking a trend that has been in place for years (they may not be guessing, or hoping, but their results are definitely contrarian to past elections).

You can really only look at all the polls to find trends. Bush was on a roll before the debates. Kerry stopped that momentum but never quite got the lead, and now Bush is expanding his smaller lead into a larger one. But as I said to Hel'n above, it doesn't matter if the national trends are going in Bush's direction if the state polls don't follow suit or if the bulk of the other polls show it tightening (the way Zogby and Rasmussen do this morning - although, because they weight the polls, it won't be surprising if Bush or Kerry has a four-point lead in tomorrow's poll).