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View Full Version : Kerry Draws Even With Bush at 45 Percent in Zogby Tracking Poll


Hel'n
10-18-2004, 02:54 PM
Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry moved into a tie with President George W. Bush in the latest Reuters/Zogby tracking poll of likely voters.

Bush and Kerry, the four-term senator from Massachusetts, each got 45 percent in the survey of 1,211 likely voters taken Friday through yesterday. Seven percent were undecided, and 1 percent said they support independent candidate Ralph Nader.

Kerry has gained on Bush in the running Zogby poll in recent days. Bush led Kerry by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent, in tracking polls Oct. 12-14 and Oct. 13-15. The lead narrowed to two points, 46 percent to 44 percent, on Oct. 14-16. The margin of error in each poll is 2.9 percentage points.

Two national polls showed the president ahead by as many as 8 percentage points as the last two weeks of campaigning begins. Bush, 58, today will be in New Jersey, where he has been running almost even with Kerry in statewide polls. Kerry, 60, heads to Florida, where early voting gets under way today in a state where the race also is too close to call.

A tracking poll is done daily and its result is the rolling average of three or four consecutive days' polls. It is updated daily by dropping the earliest day's results as new responses are added.

Zogby International is based in Utica, New York. Reuters Group Plc, the world's largest publicly traded provider of financial information, is based in London.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aU23xTWnkePI&refer=us#

Iowanian
10-18-2004, 02:56 PM
BUSH WIDENS LEAD
3 of 4 polls show Bush's Lead growing

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6273430/


I think you and Zogby both stepped in a huge pile of political Dogcrap.

Hel'n
10-18-2004, 03:03 PM
BUSH WIDENS LEAD
3 of 4 polls show Bush's Lead growing

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6273430/


I think you and Zogby both stepped in a huge pile of political Dogcrap.

Politics is all about the voodoo that you do on doodoo...

Here's another site: http://www.electoral-vote.com

RINGLEADER
10-18-2004, 03:39 PM
And ABC/WP has Bush +3. And TIPP has Bush +4. And Battleground has Bush +3. And Time has Bush +2. And Newsweek has Bush +6. And Gallup has Bush +8.

Zogby (and Rasmussen) have a strange tradition of flipping 3-4 points in a day and then flipping back. But, like I said in the other thread, it will be interesting to see if the state polls stay where they are, trend to Bush (like the national polls) or trend to Kerry (irrespective of the national polls).

BTW, the electoral-vote count doesn't include new polls in Florida (which Rasmussen shows in Bush's column), Oregon (which Riley has Bush leading +5.0), Minnesota (which Rasmussen shows tied at 47%), Nevada (which Survey USA shows for Bush - along with every other recent poll), and New Jersey (which Fairleigh shows tied at 46%).

If they bothered to update their polls with today's results it would show Bush at 286 EVs, Kerry at 220 EVs, and 32 EVs tied.

Of course, the way things stand now, you can change 1% of the vote in four states and Bush would win 339-199 (of course, the same holds true for Kerry today - if he gets 2% of the vote to move in Ohio and 1% in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and New Jersey he will win 272-266).

RINGLEADER
10-18-2004, 04:18 PM
New poll just released by Survey USA has Kerry ahead by one in Florida and six in Pennsylvania. That's what Kerry needs to do to win (consolidate Blue states and swipe a red state or two).

So maybe you'll be right Hel'n...