View Full Version : Oct. 19: Seven Battleground States Remain (Bush 274 EVs, Kerry 258 EVs, Tied 6 EVs)

10-19-2004, 02:41 PM
Changes from the last three days: New polls show the race either very tight for Kerry in Ohio (University of Cincinatti) or leaning Bush (Fox, Rasmussen), polls show Florida very tight (with the last poll from Survey USA putting Kerry up by one point, though he still trails in the blended average), Wisconsin moving from a safe state to a toss-up (largely from the Chicago Tribune poll and earlier polls getting aged and dropped from the averages) while New Hampshire moves into the "safe Kerry" category. We're still left with seven Battlegrounds as of the averaged polls from the past couple weeks.

Looking at the current polls the number of true Battleground states has started to firm up. Looking at the averages from the recent polls there are now only a handful of states where a) both candidates are drawing more than 45% in the poll results and b) both candidates are drawing less than 50% in the poll results.

Here's my list with 14 days to go based on the averages of the most recent polls taken in the last week:

<B>Florida:</B> Bush 48.5, Kerry 47.0 (Leans Bush +1.5)
<B>Ohio:</B> Bush 47.3, Kerry 47.0 (Leans Bush +0.3)
<B>Pennsylvania:</B> Bush 46.0, Kerry 48.8 (Leans Kerry +2.8)
<B>Iowa:</B> Bush 46.8, Kerry 47.5 (Leans Kerry +0.7)
<B>Oregon:</B> Bush 45.0, Kerry 48.8 (Leans Kerry +3.8)
<B>Wisconsin:</B> Bush 46.3, Kerry 47.0 (Leans Kerry +0.7)
<B>New Mexico:</B> Bush 46.5, Kerry 46.5 (Tied)

States that have previously been designated "Battleground" states that are now STRONG Bush or STRONG Kerry (one candidate achieving more than 50% of the poll result or one candidate not achieving more than 45% of the poll result) include: Arkansas (BUSH), Arizona (BUSH), Louisiana (BUSH), North Carolina (BUSH), Tennessee (BUSH), Missouri (BUSH), Nevada (BUSH), Colorado (BUSH), West Virginia (BUSH), Minnesota (KERRY), Michigan (KERRY), Maine (KERRY - although the way the state proportions its electoral votes it is likely Bush will receive one of Maine's four EVs - but I'm leaving that single EV as "tied" for right now), Washington (KERRY), New Jersey (KERRY), Maryland (KERRY).

The states that are STRONG Bush now account for 227 EVs. States that are STRONG Kerry now account for 214 EVs. There are seven states that account for 97 EVs that fall within my definition of Battleground or "toss-up". If the toss-up states go the way they are leaning right now the final results would be Bush 274 EVs, Kerry 258 EVs, Tied 6 EVs.