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View Full Version : Polls Now Showing Bush Up Big In MN, IA, NM and MI


RINGLEADER
10-21-2004, 01:20 PM
Will be out later today.

I posted to Hel'n earlier this week that if the state polls start to trend in the same direction as the national polls were showing it would spell bad news for Kerry (while a shift in the national number or a closer race in the state polls would reveal a possible shift back to Kerry).

Since then we've seen Bush up +6 in Wisconsin (Gallup), Bush up +4 in Michigan (Detroit News), and the new batch of Mason-Dixon polls out this evening will apparently show Bush with 5-point leads in New Mexico and Iowa and a 2-point lead in Minnesota.

Kerry has definitely tightened things up in Ohio and Florida (although the most recent polls are showing Bush up slightly in both states while the averages of the polls in the past week show Kerry up by .2 in Ohio and Bush up more than a point in Florida - both within the margin of error). And the polls out today can, of course, change. But the national polls do seem to be dragging th states with them.

If you incorporate these new polls into the current electoral vote counts it would be Bush 310, Kerry 228.

David.
10-21-2004, 01:37 PM
I hear that Bush will win Missouri easily too. Not sure if that's true or not.

siberian khatru
10-21-2004, 01:39 PM
IIRC, Mason-Dixon did well in the 2002 state races.

Still, I'm skeptical (esp. that Detroit News poll). I don't think anyone's got a handle on a good turnout model, and I think lots of polls are going down in flames on Nov. 2.

Cochise
10-21-2004, 01:40 PM
I hear that Bush will win Missouri easily too. Not sure if that's true or not.

From what I saw when I checked polls last week Bush was up outside the margin of error.

However, in both St. Louis and Kansas City now there are more registered voters than there are eligible voters. There is massive voter fraud going on in both KC and (as usual) in St.L. I just hope it isn't enough to swing the state over to the blue side.

RINGLEADER
10-21-2004, 01:53 PM
IIRC, Mason-Dixon did well in the 2002 state races.

Still, I'm skeptical (esp. that Detroit News poll). I don't think anyone's got a handle on a good turnout model, and I think lots of polls are going down in flames on Nov. 2.


I agree...at least until I see additional polls with Bush moving in the right direction in MI (I still think his chances in PA are better than in MI, but we'll know more in a week).

FWIW, if Bush can sustain his leads in MO, AZ, CO, NV, WV and other places where he is outside the MoE and keep Florida in his column and win the one EV by carrying part of Maine (as I think he will) it becomes vitually impossible for Kerry to win:

If Bush wins OH, he wins re-election.
If Bush loses OH, but wins PA he wins re-election.
If Bush loses OH and PA, but wins NJ he wins re-election.
If Bush loses OH, PA and NJ, but wins any combination of MN, WI, IA or OR he wins re-election.

To turn that around, Kerry must win all of his safe states (California, New York, Illinois, the New England states, etc.) and also win OH, PA, NJ, OR, MN, WI, IA, NM and NH to win the election.

If Kerry can pick off Florida his path to the White House obviously becomes a lot easier, but without that state it's pretty clear that Kerry needs to run the table to win the election. And with polls showing Bush ahead or even in all of these blue states the trends don't look good for Kerry.

John_Wayne
10-21-2004, 01:53 PM
Will be out later today.

I posted to Hel'n earlier this week that if the state polls start to trend in the same direction as the national polls were showing it would spell bad news for Kerry (while a shift in the national number or a closer race in the state polls would reveal a possible shift back to Kerry).

Since then we've seen Bush up +6 in Wisconsin (Gallup), Bush up +4 in Michigan (Detroit News), and the new batch of Mason-Dixon polls out this evening will apparently show Bush with 5-point leads in New Mexico and Iowa and a 2-point lead in Minnesota.

Kerry has definitely tightened things up in Ohio and Florida (although the most recent polls are showing Bush up slightly in both states while the averages of the polls in the past week show Kerry up by .2 in Ohio and Bush up more than a point in Florida - both within the margin of error). And the polls out today can, of course, change. But the national polls do seem to be dragging th states with them.

If you incorporate these new polls into the current electoral vote counts it would be Bush 310, Kerry 228. Do you have links to these polls? Also, where can a good electoral map be found? You seem to be the right guy to ask.

John_Wayne
10-21-2004, 01:54 PM
From what I saw when I checked polls last week Bush was up outside the margin of error.

However, in both St. Louis and Kansas City now there are more registered voters than there are eligible voters. There is massive voter fraud going on in both KC and (as usual) in St.L. I just hope it isn't enough to swing the state over to the blue side. I was shocked to hear yesterday on the radio that Blunt is 6 pts up in the Mo. Gov. race. Who knows if that's enough considering the inherent voter fraud in Mo.

RINGLEADER
10-21-2004, 02:00 PM
Do you have links to these polls? Also, where can a good electoral map be found? You seem to be the right guy to ask.


The Mason-Dixon numbers aren't out yet, but there are a variety of bloggers who get head's up on the figures. You can go to <a href="http://dalythoughts.com/index.php?p=2252">Daly Thoughts</a> to see the results.

Also, a good electoral map that you can play around with can be found over at the LA Times via <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash?coll=la-home-multimedia">this link</a>. A good source for all the polls is <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com">RealClearPolitics</a>.

Cochise
10-21-2004, 02:01 PM
I was shocked to hear yesterday on the radio that Blunt is 6 pts up in the Mo. Gov. race. Who knows if that's enough considering the inherent voter fraud in Mo.

McCaskill married the nursing home business, and there has been a lot of scandal in Missouri about them lately. There were a lot of questions about whether she might have used her influence to decrease regulatory pressure on her husband's interests. They have been running a lot of commercials about that lately.

John_Wayne
10-21-2004, 02:13 PM
McCaskill married the nursing home business, and there has been a lot of scandal in Missouri about them lately. There were a lot of questions about whether she might have used her influence to decrease regulatory pressure on her husband's interests. They have been running a lot of commercials about that lately. Mo. needs a Rep. Gov. badly. I hope Blunt pulls out the win. :thumb:

Loki
10-21-2004, 02:14 PM
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Hoover
10-21-2004, 02:15 PM
The Dems are not going to turn out.

almost 90% of republicans think Bush will win.

only 67% of democrats think Kerry will win.

If you don't think your guy is going to win, people stay home.

John_Wayne
10-21-2004, 02:16 PM
The Mason-Dixon numbers aren't out yet, but there are a variety of bloggers who get head's up on the figures. You can go to Daly Thoughts (http://dalythoughts.com/index.php?p=2252) to see the results.

Also, a good electoral map that you can play around with can be found over at the LA Times via this link (http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash?coll=la-home-multimedia). A good source for all the polls is RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com).

I'm also interested in seeing the latest poll results for these local races:

Moore vs. Kobach
Boyda vs. Ryan
Bi-state II

I've searched and searched and can't find poll numbers. Do you have any suggestions? I've tried the KC Star and RealClearPolitics.

John_Wayne
10-21-2004, 02:17 PM
The Dems are not going to turn out.

almost 90% of republicans think Bush will win.

only 67% of democrats think Kerry will win.

If you don't think your guy is going to win, people stay home.

:clap: :)

SoCalBronco
10-21-2004, 02:40 PM
Winning 2 of: Iowa, Wisconsin or Minnesota would insulate Bush from a loss of Fla. or Ohio.

I personally dont think Bush will capture Mich. or Penn. even if the polling is looking better right now.

If Bush can shave off New Mexico as well from the Dems, it would help balance out an increasingly possible loss in New Hampshire.

Just keep focusing on Ohio and Florida, Mr. President.

RINGLEADER
10-21-2004, 02:49 PM
Winning 2 of: Iowa, Wisconsin or Minnesota would insulate Bush from a loss of Fla. or Ohio.

I personally dont think Bush will capture Mich. or Penn. even if the polling is looking better right now.

If Bush can shave off New Mexico as well from the Dems, it would help balance out an increasingly possible loss in New Hampshire.

Just keep focusing on Ohio and Florida, Mr. President.


Bush has to win Florida or it becomes very difficult for him to win re-election - not impossible, but with Florida, as I showed above, it puts so much pressure on Kerry to run the table that he literally has no room for error.

KCN
10-21-2004, 02:51 PM
However, in both St. Louis and Kansas City now there are more registered voters than there are eligible voters. There is massive voter fraud going on in both KC and (as usual) in St.L. I just hope it isn't enough to swing the state over to the blue side.

You can count me as one of those cases of "voter fraud". It couldn't possibly be that people have moved out of KC and STL but are still registered there.

SoCalBronco
10-21-2004, 02:55 PM
i dunno ringleader if you do the math, lets say everything stays the way it was last time its 278-260. Lets say Kerry wins Fla. Thats 287. Then, Bush holds serve on the rest (will need some good luck in NH) and picks off Iowa (Kerry is down to 280) and Wisconsin (Kerry is down to 268)... Bush wins.
Just pick off two out of: Iowa, Wisc. and Minn (i think Minn is pretty much a kerry lock despite the close polls) and you can afford to lose Fla. or Ohio.
Getting NM as i said earlier to help wash out a loss in NH maintains this scenario as well.

Lomax
10-21-2004, 02:59 PM
Don't forget that Amendment 36 must be defeated to keep all 9 Colorado votes in one column. If you're talking about Kerry at 268 (without Colorado) and he gets 4 of the 9 here, he goes over the top.

RINGLEADER
10-21-2004, 03:08 PM
Don't forget that Amendment 36 must be defeated to keep all 9 Colorado votes in one column. If you're talking about Kerry at 268 (without Colorado) and he gets 4 of the 9 here, he goes over the top.


Last poll on 36 that I saw showed it down 15 points.

RINGLEADER
10-21-2004, 03:18 PM
i dunno ringleader if you do the math, lets say everything stays the way it was last time its 278-260. Lets say Kerry wins Fla. Thats 287. Then, Bush holds serve on the rest (will need some good luck in NH) and picks off Iowa (Kerry is down to 280) and Wisconsin (Kerry is down to 268)... Bush wins.
Just pick off two out of: Iowa, Wisc. and Minn (i think Minn is pretty much a kerry lock despite the close polls) and you can afford to lose Fla. or Ohio.
Getting NM as i said earlier to help wash out a loss in NH maintains this scenario as well.


Yes, Bush can still win losing Florida. But if he loses Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey it requires that BUSH run the table and win previously blue states OR, NM, IA, MN, WI and keep NH if he hopes to win. If Bush loses Florida and Ohio I doubt he wins all of those six states.

Now, if Bush wins Ohio and loses Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey (as well as the other safe Kerry states) he would need to win either Minnesota or Wisconsin AND two out of New Mexico, Iowa and Oregon.

Florida is key if it is a close race.

Baby Lee
10-21-2004, 03:22 PM
I hear that Bush will win Missouri easily too. Not sure if that's true or not.
I might be able to survive a Kerry presidency, but if MO goes Kerry, I'm packing up and moving to the coast. If you're gonna be surrounded by kooks, you might as well have decent weather.

;) ;)

Calcountry
10-21-2004, 03:25 PM
IIRC, Mason-Dixon did well in the 2002 state races.

Still, I'm skeptical (esp. that Detroit News poll). I don't think anyone's got a handle on a good turnout model, and I think lots of polls are going down in flames on Nov. 2.
Do you really think that the Blacks will turn out for an "elitist" like Kerry?

Not as good as the plain speaking Gore or Bubba.

In places like Pennsylvania, and Michigan, that will be HUGE.

Jews are trending more Republican this time due to Bush's unwavering support of Israel. Will he get a majority? By no means, but a tilt of this block is not good when you needed ALL of them to tie in Florida.

Ohio is Kerry's best chance at a pick up due to the loss of Jobs, but in the end, the war trumps the jobs, Bush in a squeeker.

KCN
10-21-2004, 03:27 PM
If you're gonna be surrounded by kooks, you might as well have decent weather.

;) ;)

My exact feelings when I moved to Texas.

KCN
10-21-2004, 03:31 PM
Jews are trending more Republican this time due to Bush's unwavering support of Israel. Will he get a majority? By no means, but a tilt of this block is not good when you needed ALL of them to tie in Florida.

There are so many possible "tilts" I am hearing that my head is about to spin right off. I'm saying F--- it. I'll find out election day. Or Christmas Day. Whenever.

siberian khatru
10-21-2004, 03:34 PM
Do you really think that the Blacks will turn out for an "elitist" like Kerry?

Not as good as the plain speaking Gore or Bubba.

In places like Pennsylvania, and Michigan, that will be HUGE.

Jews are trending more Republican this time due to Bush's unwavering support of Israel. Will he get a majority? By no means, but a tilt of this block is not good when you needed ALL of them to tie in Florida.

Ohio is Kerry's best chance at a pick up due to the loss of Jobs, but in the end, the war trumps the jobs, Bush in a squeeker.

Good points all, but everytime I factor stuff like that in, I feel like I'm being a homer or being overconfident. I'm trying to go into Nov. 2 with zero expectations and will just see how things play out. The huge increase in voter registrations, coupled with the desire of Democrats to litigate every conceivably close race, has me taking absolutely nothing for granted.

John_Wayne
10-21-2004, 03:43 PM
Yes, Bush can still win losing Florida. But if he loses Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey it requires that BUSH run the table and win previously blue states OR, NM, IA, MN, WI and keep NH if he hopes to win. If Bush loses Florida and Ohio I doubt he wins all of those six states.

Now, if Bush wins Ohio and loses Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey (as well as the other safe Kerry states) he would need to win either Minnesota or Wisconsin AND two out of New Mexico, Iowa and Oregon.

Florida is key if it is a close race. Ah-Nold is going to campaign in Ohio for Bush. He could be the difference maker. :thumb:

Calcountry
10-21-2004, 04:13 PM
Don't forget that Amendment 36 must be defeated to keep all 9 Colorado votes in one column. If you're talking about Kerry at 268 (without Colorado) and he gets 4 of the 9 here, he goes over the top.
Was this an initiative that was put on the ballot by the Colorado state legislature, or was it originated by petition?

If it is the latter, I have a tough time believing it will pass constitutional muster.

According to the constitution, electors are to be selected by state legislatures.

Calcountry
10-21-2004, 04:15 PM
I might be able to survive a Kerry presidency, but if MO goes Kerry, I'm packing up and moving to the coast. If you're gonna be surrounded by kooks, you might as well have decent weather.

;) ;)
ROFL Why do you think I stay here?

RINGLEADER
10-21-2004, 04:57 PM
Do you really think that the Blacks will turn out for an "elitist" like Kerry?

Not as good as the plain speaking Gore or Bubba.

In places like Pennsylvania, and Michigan, that will be HUGE.

Jews are trending more Republican this time due to Bush's unwavering support of Israel. Will he get a majority? By no means, but a tilt of this block is not good when you needed ALL of them to tie in Florida.

Ohio is Kerry's best chance at a pick up due to the loss of Jobs, but in the end, the war trumps the jobs, Bush in a squeeker.


New Rasmussen poll in Ohio shows Bush up +3 (was tied a couple days ago). Rasmussen also shows Minnesota deadlocked at 49% when you include leaners and Bush reclaiming his 3-point lead in Florida as well in today's tracking polls.

Kerry's leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania were also narrowed.

Chief Henry
10-21-2004, 05:08 PM
Any news on the SD senate race between Dascle and Thune? THanks in advance.

RINGLEADER
10-21-2004, 05:20 PM
Any news on the SD senate race between Dascle and Thune? THanks in advance.

Recent polls I've seen shown Thune up a bit, Daschle up a bit and the race tied.

Here's a link to all the polls for that race: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/sd_polls.html

Chief Henry
10-21-2004, 05:22 PM
Recent polls I've seen shown Thune up a bit, Daschle up a bit and the race tied.

Here's a link to all the polls for that race: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/sd_polls.html


I've seen the real clear politics sight. I dip inot it several times a day,
but i don't pay for their $$$ page which I beleave had more polls.
I did see that Thune has been up in 5 of the 9 polls listed on that
sight.

Thanks.

patteeu
10-21-2004, 09:18 PM
Don't forget that Amendment 36 must be defeated to keep all 9 Colorado votes in one column. If you're talking about Kerry at 268 (without Colorado) and he gets 4 of the 9 here, he goes over the top.

There are a lot of nuts in Colorado (especially in Boulder), but the state as a whole can't be dumb enough to pass that amendment.

Joe Seahawk
10-21-2004, 09:23 PM
I might be able to survive a Kerry presidency, but if MO goes Kerry, I'm packing up and moving to the coast. If you're gonna be surrounded by kooks, you might as well have decent weather.

;) ;)


:hmmm: ..... :banghead:

roman gnome
10-21-2004, 10:46 PM
"There are a lot of nuts in Colorado (especially in Boulder), but the state as a whole can't be dumb enough to pass that amendment."

Good God I hope not.

This state is really changing fast with the big influx of people.

Duck Dog
10-22-2004, 08:36 AM
There are so many possible "tilts" I am hearing that my head is about to spin right off. I'm saying F--- it. I'll find out election day. Or Christmas Day. Whenever.

If we're lucky.