PDA

View Full Version : Another National Poll Shows Bush With Huge Lead (Time Mag: Bush 51, Kerry 46)


RINGLEADER
10-22-2004, 03:07 PM
Bush had a +1.0 lead last week. This marks the fifth (out of 13) poll in the last week that shows Bush at or over 50% and the ninth poll to show Kerry stuck at or below 45%. Bush does no worse than 46% (and only in one poll). Also, Bush has leads of more than 3 points in half of the polls while Kerry leads by more than 3 in none (in fact, he only leads in one of them at all). Bush now has an average of 48.85% in the 13 most recent polls while Kerry has an average of 45.69% (Bush lead of 3.2%).

This just in, the new Washington Post poll has Bush winning 50% to 46%. And Rasmussen's Battleground tracking polls have Bush up in Florida, Minnesota, and Ohio (while Kerry retains his Michigan and Pennsylvania leads).

<I>On Edit: RealClearPolitics has it 51-46 so I've changed it, although on CNN they showed it Bush up 51-43. Dunno why.</I>

Mr. Kotter
10-22-2004, 03:10 PM
But....but.....thisss....thisssss.......cannnnnn't.....bbbbeeeee......trrrrrruuuuuuuueeeeee!!! :deevee:

I do suspect it's a bit skewed for Bush though... :hmmm:

Chief Henry
10-22-2004, 03:12 PM
So much for the great de-baiter

Taco John
10-22-2004, 03:13 PM
Boy these polls are getting odder and odder...

RINGLEADER
10-22-2004, 03:15 PM
OK...the 50-43 figure was from registered voters. I guess all those new registered voters going for Kerry story just hit a speed bump for this news cycle.

Still worried about Bush getting the job done in Ohio and Florida. Would rather he just get those two states locked down good than worry so much about getting the lead in Minnesota or Iowa or Wisconsin or Michigan...oops! new polls show that he already has the leads there!

memyselfI
10-22-2004, 03:17 PM
Bush had a +1.0 lead last week. This marks the fifth (out of 13) poll in the last week that shows Bush at or over 50% and the ninth poll to show Kerry stuck at or below 45%. Bush does no worse than 46% (and only in one poll). Also, Bush has leads of more than 3 points in half of the polls while Kerry leads by more than 3 in none (in fact, he only leads in one of them at all). Bush now has an average of 48.85% in the 13 most recent polls while Kerry has an average of 45.69% (Bush lead of 3.2%).

This just in, the new Washington Post poll has Bush winning 50% to 46%. And Rasmussen's Battleground tracking polls have Bush up in Florida, Minnesota, and Ohio (while Kerry retains his Michigan and Pennsylvania leads).

<I>On Edit: RealClearPolitics has it 51-46 so I've changed it, although on CNN they showed it Bush up 51-43. Dunno why.</I>

Ringo, it's too close to call. You can keep posting polls that favor your candidate and ignore the ones that don't for the next week but it doesn't change the fact that this race is neck and neck and likely will remain so until election day and I remain convinced that Kerry within MOE or alittle outside is NOT reason for panic for him.

RINGLEADER
10-22-2004, 03:23 PM
Ringo, it's too close to call. You can keep posting polls that favor your candidate and ignore the ones that don't for the next week but it doesn't change the fact that this race is neck and neck and likely will remain so until election day and I remain convinced that Kerry within MOE or alittle outside is NOT reason for panic for him.


When did I ignore a poll that didn't favor my candidate? I readily admit that Bush only leads 10 of the 13 most recent polls and that Kerry leads 49-46 in the new AP/Ipsos poll as well as in...er, well...um, well he leads in the AP/Ipsos poll.

RINGLEADER
10-22-2004, 03:24 PM
Ringo, it's too close to call. You can keep posting polls that favor your candidate and ignore the ones that don't for the next week but it doesn't change the fact that this race is neck and neck and likely will remain so until election day and I remain convinced that Kerry within MOE or alittle outside is NOT reason for panic for him.


Trailing by 7 points among the supposedly more Kerry-friendly registered voters is not a reason for concern? What do you think the news would be saying if a poll came out that showed Bush behind by 7?

Mr. Kotter
10-22-2004, 03:29 PM
..... What do you think the news would be saying if a poll came out that showed Bush behind by 7?

No sh*t. Were the situation reversed, the Headlines would read:

"Kerry Takes Commanding Lead; Tereza Picking Out WH Drapes."

Or,

"Kerry Crushing Bush; Citizens Finally Get It!"

:rolleyes:

:shake:

Patriot 21
10-22-2004, 03:30 PM
Boy these polls are getting odder and odder...

No kidding. It's just proof as to how difficult it is for pollsters to keep their stories straight in their attempt to aid Kerry through the polls.

:hmmm:

memyselfI
10-22-2004, 03:33 PM
When did I ignore a poll that didn't favor my candidate? I readily admit that Bush only leads 10 of the 13 most recent polls and that Kerry leads 49-46 in the new AP/Ipsos poll as well as in...er, well...um, well he leads in the AP/Ipsos poll.


I've heard all day long that in the poll of polls the MOE is 2-3 points...so you are ignoring something somewhere.

Cochise
10-22-2004, 03:38 PM
I think that pollsters realize that they need to maintain credibility at the end of the day. I mean, what would happen if a news organization ran a poll that had the race at a dead heat and then one of the candidates won by 7%? Their credibility would be flushed instantly.

Something is going on. I've been hearing on this board for months that you can't trust the polls until about 2 weeks out. So, I guess all these polls that have Bush ahead and the numbers trending his way are all wrong?

Mr. Kotter
10-22-2004, 03:46 PM
I...Something is going on. I've been hearing on this board for months that you can't trust the polls until about 2 weeks out. So, I guess all these polls that have Bush ahead and the numbers trending his way are all wrong?

It's a vast right wing/conservative media conspiracy... :rolleyes:

Calcountry
10-22-2004, 03:46 PM
Boy these polls are getting odder and odder...
What do you know about poles?

RINGLEADER
10-22-2004, 03:50 PM
I've heard all day long that in the poll of polls the MOE is 2-3 points...so you are ignoring something somewhere.

Nope. Go to Real Clear Politics and pull up their last 13 polls (these were the ones they had highlighted until a moment ago when they dropped off the polls from last weekend). I could have gone back even further and made it look worse.

Also, the Job Approval ratings for Bush are trending in the right direction in the last week (current average is 50.4%):

Rasmussen: 54%
Time Magazine: 53%
ABC News: 51%
Washington Post: 51%
Marist: 49%
NBC/WSJ: 49%
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: 49%
AP/Ipsos: 47%

RINGLEADER
10-22-2004, 03:53 PM
I think that pollsters realize that they need to maintain credibility at the end of the day. I mean, what would happen if a news organization ran a poll that had the race at a dead heat and then one of the candidates won by 7%? Their credibility would be flushed instantly.

Something is going on. I've been hearing on this board for months that you can't trust the polls until about 2 weeks out. So, I guess all these polls that have Bush ahead and the numbers trending his way are all wrong?


The current line of thinking among the left is that a) the polls are flawed, b) the polls are missing some vast sea of cellphone-only users, c) registered surveys are better than likely voter surveys (although the Time, ABC and Washington Post polls all show BETTER results for Bush among registered voters - Bush leads by 7 points in all three of those polls among RVs), d) the polls are missing some sub-set of the population.

Cochise
10-22-2004, 03:54 PM
Nope. Go to Real Clear Politics and pull up their last 13 polls (these were the ones they had highlighted until a moment ago when they dropped off the polls from last weekend). I could have gone back even further and made it look worse.

I wonder if you posted poll numbers from a week out of Bush/Dukakis '88 if Duhnise could find a way to argue that Dukakis was up huge.

Cochise
10-22-2004, 03:56 PM
The current line of thinking among the left is that a) the polls are flawed, b) the polls are missing some vast sea of cellphone-only users, c) registered surveys are better than likely voter surveys (although the Time, ABC and Washington Post polls all show BETTER results for Bush among registered voters - Bush leads by 7 points in all three of those polls among RVs), d) the polls are missing some sub-set of the population.

I think the only thing they are missing are fraudulet absentee ballots.

And, FWIW, I'm one of these cellphone-only people, and I got called for a poll back in the spring, maybe April or May. I don't remember what firm it was or anything. I was surprised since I have never been called for one before. I was at home in the evening, and got a call from blah polling services, the guy was talking kind of fast and I had the TV on loud so I didn't catch all of the intro.

He asked me a few questions, like how old I was, race if I cared to identify it, income if I cared to identify, if I was registered where I lived, and how likely I was to vote on Nov 2 (on a definitely/strongly/somewhat likely or unlikely scale). He then asked me if I generally considered myself Repub, Demo, Indep, or Other, and who I favored for President.

It sounded like a reputable deal to me, I have no idea how the guy got my number, but he addressed me by my last name so it wasn't a random call.

RINGLEADER
10-22-2004, 03:59 PM
Oops!

Another poll just released (ICR) shows Bush up 44-39 (Kerry at 39!!!)...another 5-point Bush lead.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/22/news/economy/icr/

New York (CNN/Money) - Registered voters continue to give President Bush a five-point lead over Senator Kerry, 44 percent to 39 percent, said a recent MONEY Magazine/ICR poll.

When asked which candidate would do a better job on a range of important issues facing the country, President Bush led in managing the war on terrorism while Senator Kerry led on domestic issues.

Senator Kerry had a significant lead for managing health care and job creation, and a marginal lead on managing the federal deficit.

Of respondents polled, 52 percent thought Bush would be more effective in the war on terror and 37 percent thought Kerry would do a better job.

Kerry had a wide lead on the question of job creation, with 50 percent of respondents for Kerry and 38 percent for Bush.

Forty-seven percent thought Kerry would better deal with the deficit, versus 41 percent for Bush. On health care costs, 48 percent voted for Kerry and 39 percent for Bush.

The poll revealed that President Bush has a solid lead among voters who make more than $50,000 a year, voters in the midwest and those over the age of 55.

If the Presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters with household incomes over $50,000 would vote for Bush, while only 34 percent would vote for Kerry.

Fifty percent of mid-western voters polled would vote for Bush, and 35 percent for Kerry; while 48 percent of voters older than 55 would vote for Bush and 34 percent would vote for Kerry.

Among total Americans, President Bush maintains a five-point lead over Senator Kerry, 43 percent versus 38 percent.

The MONEY/ICR poll was conducted with a nationwide sample of 1,015 Americans between October 13 and October 17, 2004. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Of the total sample, 857 were registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

The poll was fielded by International Communications Research (ICR) a market and opinion research firm headquartered in Media, Pennsylvania.

Duck Dog
10-22-2004, 04:39 PM
When did I ignore a poll that didn't favor my candidate? I readily admit that Bush only leads 10 of the 13 most recent polls and that Kerry leads 49-46 in the new AP/Ipsos poll as well as in...er, well...um, well he leads in the AP/Ipsos poll.

You forgot the Demoratic Underground poll. It clearly shows sKerry in the lead. And that's the only poll that matters and if you don't agree with me, I'll throw a tantrum then I'll throw a pie at you.

Brando
10-22-2004, 05:52 PM
Here's an interesting site that uses a premise that undecideds will break 2 to 1 for the challenger which they historically always do.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

the Talking Can
10-22-2004, 07:04 PM
there are lots of polls:

Kerry by 2% USA 47-49-1-(3.1) LV 10/20 - 10/21 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Bush by 7% " 50-43-4-(3) RV 10/19 - 10/21 TIME Magazine
Bush by 5% " 51-46-2-(4) LV 10/19 - 10/21 TIME Magazine
Kerry by 1% " 46-47-3-(2.5) RV 10/18 - 10/20 Associated Press/Ipsos Poll
Kerry by 3% " 46-49-2-(3) LV 10/18 - 10/20 Associated Press/Ipsos Poll
Kerry by 2% " 46-48-1-(2) RV 10/18 - 10/20 Economist/YouGov
Kerry by 2% " 46-48-1-(2) A 10/18 - 10/20 Economist/YouGov
Kerry by 1% " 47-48-1-(2) LV 10/18 - 10/20 Economist/YouGov
Tie " 47-47-1-(3) RV 10/17 - 10/19 Marist College
Bush by 1% " 48-47-1-(3.5) LV 10/17 - 10/19 Marist College
Kerry by 3% " 47-50-1-(3.1) LV 10/17 - 10/18 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner




and state polls:


10-22 21 Kerry by 6% Pennsylvania 41-47-5-(2.9) 10/16 - 10/20 Quinnipiac University
10-22 15 Kerry by 8% New Jersey 41-49-0-(4.5) 10/13 - 10/21 Fairleigh Dickinson University
10-22 20 Kerry by 6% Ohio 43-49-2-(4.9) 10/17 - 10/21 Scripps/Ohio University
10-22 17 Kerry by 6% Michigan 43-49-1-(4) 10/18 - 10/21 EPIC/MRA
10-22 -- Bush by 5% USA 44-39-n-(3.4) 10/13 - 10/17 ICR
10-22 7 Kerry by 7% Oregon 45-52-n-(4.5) 10/6 - 10/19 Rasmussen Reports
10-22 -- Kerry by 2% USA 47-49-1-(3.1) 10/20 - 10/21 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner



but the only story the "liberal" press reports is that Bush is surging.....yeah.....

memyselfI
10-23-2004, 07:01 AM
Oops!

Another poll just released (ICR) shows Bush up 44-39 (Kerry at 39!!!)...another 5-point Bush lead.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/22/news/economy/icr/

New York (CNN/Money) - Registered voters continue to give President Bush a five-point lead over Senator Kerry, 44 percent to 39 percent, said a recent MONEY Magazine/ICR poll.

When asked which candidate would do a better job on a range of important issues facing the country, President Bush led in managing the war on terrorism while Senator Kerry led on domestic issues.

Senator Kerry had a significant lead for managing health care and job creation, and a marginal lead on managing the federal deficit.

Of respondents polled, 52 percent thought Bush would be more effective in the war on terror and 37 percent thought Kerry would do a better job.

Kerry had a wide lead on the question of job creation, with 50 percent of respondents for Kerry and 38 percent for Bush.

Forty-seven percent thought Kerry would better deal with the deficit, versus 41 percent for Bush. On health care costs, 48 percent voted for Kerry and 39 percent for Bush.

The poll revealed that President Bush has a solid lead among voters who make more than $50,000 a year, voters in the midwest and those over the age of 55.

If the Presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters with household incomes over $50,000 would vote for Bush, while only 34 percent would vote for Kerry.

Fifty percent of mid-western voters polled would vote for Bush, and 35 percent for Kerry; while 48 percent of voters older than 55 would vote for Bush and 34 percent would vote for Kerry.

Among total Americans, President Bush maintains a five-point lead over Senator Kerry, 43 percent versus 38 percent.

The MONEY/ICR poll was conducted with a nationwide sample of 1,015 Americans between October 13 and October 17, 2004. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Of the total sample, 857 were registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

The poll was fielded by International Communications Research (ICR) a market and opinion research firm headquartered in Media, Pennsylvania.


OOOPs indeed.

RCP has the POP spread at 2.4% Bush...

so keep reassuring yourself that a landslide is in the making. ;)

Calcountry
10-23-2004, 10:37 AM
I wouldn't call 5 points with a ME of 4 a huge lead.

Mr. Kotter
10-23-2004, 10:41 AM
I wouldn't call 5 points with a ME of 4 a huge lead.

Neither would I.

A 2-4 point lead in politics, this close to an election--across MOST polls.....is the equivalent, in football, to....a 7 point lead with about 3 minutes left, you have the ball near mid field first and ten, and your opponent is out of time-outs. You can still lose, but it will take a good effort for the other guy to beat you....

Kinda like the Jacksonville game last week. :banghead:

Chief Henry
10-23-2004, 11:24 AM
Neither would I.

A 2-4 point lead in politics, this close to an election--across MOST polls.....is the equivalent, in football, to....a 7 point lead with about 3 minutes left, you have the ball near mid field first and ten, and your opponent is out of time-outs. You can still lose, but it will take a good effort for the other guy to beat you....

Kinda like the Jacksonville game last week. :banghead:


I wouldn't call it a 7 point lead, I would call it a 3 pt lead. With the race as close as it is. I just hope President Bush doesn't have the Chiefs defense as back up in the 4th qtr.

Mr. Kotter
10-23-2004, 12:58 PM
I wouldn't call it a 7 point lead, I would call it a 3 pt lead. With the race as close as it is. I just hope President Bush doesn't have the Chiefs defense as back up in the 4th qtr.

Unless there's another October "Surprise," Kerry's gonna need a TD with only 10 days to go, IMO.

beavis
10-23-2004, 03:40 PM
You forgot the Demoratic Underground poll. It clearly shows sKerry in the lead. And that's the only poll that matters and if you don't agree with me, I'll throw a tantrum then I'll throw a pie at you.
I saw that one. I think it was like 93-7 Kerry, wasn't it?

wazu
10-23-2004, 04:44 PM
Too bad no poll can predict what paperless computer voting systems will do.

Calcountry
10-23-2004, 06:23 PM
Neither would I.

A 2-4 point lead in politics, this close to an election--across MOST polls.....is the equivalent, in football, to....a 7 point lead with about 3 minutes left, you have the ball near mid field first and ten, and your opponent is out of time-outs. You can still lose, but it will take a good effort for the other guy to beat you....

Kinda like the Jacksonville game last week. :banghead:
Where we need a first down to win the game, yeah, don't remind me.