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View Full Version : Zogby: "Could Undecideds Be Breaking For Bush?"


RINGLEADER
10-23-2004, 11:56 AM
Pollster John Zogby: "Bush had a stronger single day of polling, leading Kerry 49% to 46%. For the first time, in the one-day sample Bush had a positive re-elect, 49% to the 48% who feel it's time for someone new. Also in the one-day sample, Undecideds were only 4%. Could Undecideds be breaking for Bush?

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=902

Calcountry
10-23-2004, 01:33 PM
I hope that the bandwagon people see Bush as the winner and hop on.

nychief
10-23-2004, 02:19 PM
wow. John Zogby, there is reliable source. What are Barry Goldwater's numbers?

Saggysack
10-23-2004, 02:54 PM
One day zogby is unreliable. The next he is. I guess reliablity depends on which direction the results lean.

nychief
10-23-2004, 02:58 PM
One day zogby is unreliable. The next he is. I guess reliablity depends on which direction the results lean.

Zogby has alway leaned to the right. FLIP FLOPPER.

Ugly Duck
10-23-2004, 02:58 PM
Could Undecideds be breaking for Bush?no.

Donger
10-23-2004, 02:59 PM
Zogby has alway leaned to the right. FLIP FLOPPER.

I think you're mistaking Zogby with Rasmussen.

nychief
10-23-2004, 03:05 PM
I think you're mistaking Zogby with Rasmussen.

Freedom hater.

Donger
10-23-2004, 03:09 PM
Freedom hater.

Factually challenged.

nychief
10-23-2004, 03:09 PM
I think you're mistaking Zogby with Rasmussen.

by the way, I think youare mistaking Rasmussen with Rasputin. Rasputin the soothsaying monk, Dennis Rasmussen the former Yankee pitcher:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rasmude01.shtml

Donger
10-23-2004, 03:15 PM
by the way, I think youare mistaking Rasmussen with Rasputin. Rasputin the soothsaying monk, Dennis Rasmussen the former Yankee pitcher:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rasmude01.shtml

If you are joking, ROFL . I think of Rasputin every time I hear Rasmussen.

If not, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

nychief
10-23-2004, 03:18 PM
i am just having a laugh... falling asleep at work.

RINGLEADER
10-23-2004, 09:03 PM
Zogby has alway leaned to the right. FLIP FLOPPER.


Zogby's a Dem. He's living off the results of the 2000 election (he sucked in the mid-terms and was wrong on most of the state polls in 2000), but he wasn't the most accurate - Opinion Dynamics and Harris were the only two to have the margin dead-on and Harris was the only one to call the exact numbers.

But the earlier poster was right...Dems seem to like Zogby (especially when he was calling the race for Kerry back in August) until his results don't concur with partisan beliefs.

RINGLEADER
10-23-2004, 09:08 PM
no.


It really is a myth that late-deciders always break against the incumbant. If you look at the data the only time that really happened was in 1980. All the other years the incumbant party either gained ground in the polls at the end (as recently as Al Gore in 2000) or the undecideds broke fairly evenly.

Dick Morris is one of the biggest proponents of the late deciders break against the incumbant (on the theory that if they've had four years of someone and they can't commit they must not want the guy in office). Zogby's been arriving at that conclusion because undecideds are giving the president poor re-elect and right-track/wrong-track numbers (two indicators that have a terrible track record...Clinton, for instance, had a right-track number of 39 on election day 1996).

RINGLEADER
10-24-2004, 10:49 AM
Today's Zogby poll shows Bush up 50-43.

Saturday results: Bush 50-43
Friday results: Bush 49-46

Looks pretty likely that Bush will be up around 49/50 to 44/45 for Kerry tomorrow. More evidence of the undecideds breaking against Kerry who has only managed to poll over 45% two times in the month of October.

FWIW, the trends are mirrored in the TIPP tracking poll (Bush ahead 49-43) but not in the Rasmussen survey (Bush ahead only a fraction).