OK, forget about who you WANT to win...

[alnorth]

Who WILL win, period. Your lunch money, your house, your life, its all on the line on this coin-flip bet, who do you think will win, regardless of who you plan on voting for.

[RINGLEADER]

Ask me a week from now. There won't be a lot of movement in the final 3 days (barring some surprise of course). I still think whoever wins will do it with more than 300 EVs though.

If you needed an answer today, based on the polls, it is very tight (although the chances for a landslide still exist for both sides).

Basically, it breaks down like this:

If you assume Kerry wins WA, MI, NJ, MD, ME, PA among the Battlegrounds favoring the Dems by a blended 3 points or more while also assuming Bush wins NV, CO, MO, AR, and other states where he is up by the same margins, he must do the following:

- If Kerry wins Ohio and Florida he's president unless Bush wins NH, WI, MN, NM, IA and OR (not very likely that Bush would win all of them - especially if Kerry is winning both OH and FL).

- If Kerry wins OH and loses FL, he must either win WI, MN and one of IA, NM and OR or he must win either WI or MN and all three of IA, NM, OR.

- If Kerry wins FL and loses OH, he must either win WI and MN or he must win either WI or MN and two out of three from IA, NM, and OR.

- If Kerry loses OH and loses FL there is no way he can win. This is the clearest path to a Bush victory, but Kerry has successfully tightened the race in both states (although Rasmussen's tracking poll now has Bush up +5 in OH where he was running behind.)

An interesting scenario would be this: Kerry wins FL, Bush wins OH, they split WI and MN and they split OR and IA. If Bush wins NH or one of the four EVs from ME that are partitioned, then he wins. If Kerry wins NH and all four of the EVs from ME then they tie and Bush wins in the House of Representatives (provided, of course, that the CO amendment dividing up their EVs is shot down, as it appears it will be, at the ballot box).

[MadProphetMargin]

I put the odds at 5:4 in Bush's favor.

[Ugly Duck]

BushCo wins. No way can an incumbant lose with the worst attack against the country as the background. Even an administration as atrociously inept as BushCo cannot lose with 9/11 under its belt. They may have squandered their post-attack 91% approval rating by being bumbling buffoons, but all it will take is a "surprise" move to Terror Code RED!!!! just before the election to frighten the populace into a patriotic support-the-incumbant fervor. Even Alfred E. Newman could not lose this election as the incumbant... (Oh wait, thats essentially the situation at hand...)

[Bowser]

If I were to bet, I would probablly say Bush . But I wouldn't bet just because voter turnout is going to be a record high, and the vote is so close. Honestly, I'm not going to be suprised at whoever wins.

[Slayer]

Whatever scenario can make them tie will happen...and I definately see Maine splitting their electoral votes among Kerry and Bush. IF there's too much controversy and the Dems feel that there's something huge that needs to be done for them in order to allow a Bush victory, they might be willing to "compromise"...could be anything from pulling the troops out of Iraq to agreeing to shooting down an abortion ban if it comes up.

[Taco John]

The encumbant will always have the edge in a question like this...