Rassmussen: Kerry "the closer" pulling ahead of Bush...

[Taco John]

Monday October 25, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

This is the first time Senator Kerry has held the lead since August 23. The 48.4% for Kerry is the Senator's highest total since August 17. Data for this update is collected on a three-day rolling average basis and Senator Kerry held the lead on each of the three days of polling.

When "leaners" are included, Kerry leads 49% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.

For the first time in a month, the number saying the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror and the number saying Bush is a better leader than Kerry both dipped below 50%.

Yesterday, we released state polling data for Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection now shows Bush with 222 Electoral Votes and Kerry with 207. Additional state polling data will be released today at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[BIG_DADDY]

Kerry "the closer" ROFL

[Duck Dog]

Kerry "the closer" ROFL


More like skerry the liar.

[Taco John]

Kerry "the closer" ROFL



Your lack of knowledge aside... That's the reputation Kerry has earned due to his tendancy to surge late. Or didn't you pay any attention to the primaries, when he came out of nowhere to take the whole thing?

[KCWolfman]

What a dumbass... Nobody leads statistical ties.

[MadProphetMargin]

Your lack of knowledge aside... That's the reputation Kerry has earned due to his tendancy to surge late. Or didn't you pay any attention to the primaries, when he came out of nowhere to take the whole thing?

Yeah, he owned the hell out of my betting book.

[Taco John]

Yes, of course Russ... Which is why I didn't say he was leading, but starting to pull ahead. This is the first time since August 23 that Kerry has registered ahead of Bush on the Rassmussen poll, which is the only one I pay much attention to. Since it's the first time since August that Kerry has registered ahead of Bush in a Republican pollster's numbers, I figured it significant.


For what it's worth, the margin on this poll is +/- 2.

[KCWolfman]

Yes, of course Russ... Which is why I didn't say he was leading, but starting to pull ahead.
That's a lie. The word "starting" is not in your title at all.

Rassmussen: Kerry "the closer" pulling ahead of Bush...
Can someone else give me an instance in which the words "pulling ahead" does not mean "leading"?


Nice attempt at CYA, but per your own words, you are a dumbass.

[Donger]

Was Nader included in his poll?

[BCD]

SOmeone change the header. Teej is a LIAR!

[KCWolfman]

SOmeone change the header. Teej is a LIAR!
He wasn't a liar in the header, he was a liar later on in the thread.

Per his own words, he is a dumbass in the header.

[Baby Lee]

Kerry "the closer" ROFL
You need to listen closer, it's actually Kerry the cunthair.

[Hel'n]

I'm expecting Kerry to take Florida and Iowa...

but no scientific data to back up my "hunch"

[Taco John]

That's a lie. The word "starting" is not in your title at all.




Ok... Well, whatever. The word "starting" is inherent because this is the strongest showing Kerry has had in this poll since August. But have it your way if if maks you feel any better about the bad news.

[KCWolfman]

Ok... Well, whatever. The word "starting" is inherent because this is the strongest showing Kerry has had in this poll since August. But have it your way if if maks you feel any better about the bad news.
I don't take the news one way or the other. I believe you poll worshippers to be wasting your time anyway.

However, I do like the word "inherent" in your statement to attempt to build up some sort of credence to the lie, it shows you to be a bigger fool than I thought instead of just saying "I was wrong".

[Donger]

Ok... Well, whatever.

ROFL

[Calcountry]

For what its worth, I just had 2 women say they had to vote for Bush in my store.

[Taco John]

I don't take the news one way or the other. I believe you poll worshippers to be wasting your time anyway.

However, I do like the word "inherent" in your statement to attempt to build up some sort of credence to the lie, it shows you to be a bigger fool than I thought instead of just saying "I was wrong".


Why are you so afraid of the word inherent? Is it not true that is was inherent in the story? Of course it's true.

You've just got a red ass because of the lies I busted you in over the weekend, with your whole "laughing because Kerry is taller than Bush" debacle. I can understand why you're desperately grasping at straws now and trying to save face. You wear desperation like Mike Tyson wears a face tattoo. It's ugly, but it somehow fits.

[KCWolfman]

For what its worth, I just had 2 women say they had to vote for Bush in my store.
Did you talk them into it? I hear there is some prime property in Washington where it is feasible to take 10 minutes and change someone's mind.

[KCWolfman]

Why are you so afraid of the word inherent? Is it not true that is was inherent in the story? Of course it's true.

You've just got a red ass because of the lies I busted you in over the weekend, with your whole "laughing because Kerry is taller than Bush" debacle. I can understand why you're desperately grasping at straws now and trying to save face. You wear desperation like Mike Tyson wears a face tattoo. It's ugly, but it somehow fits.
I didn't state I was "afraid" of anything.

I made my point, others have already noticed your statement for what it is. It is apparent in the responses. But rationalize away, it makes the situation even more funny.

[Taco John]

Did you talk them into it? I hear there is some prime property in Washington where it is feasible to take 10 minutes and change someone's mind.


It was more like a 20 minute conversation. But he did confirm this weekend that his mind has been changed, and he's now casting a vote for Kerry. Apparently he was kind of on the fence and leaning Bush. But now he's not.

[Cochise]

Ok... Well, whatever. The word "starting" is inherent

ROFL ROFL

[KCWolfman]

It was more like a 20 minute conversation. But he did confirm this weekend that his mind has been changed, and he's now casting a vote for Kerry. Apparently he was kind of on the fence and leaning Bush. But now he's not.
It's gotta be the shoes.

[KCWolfman]

ROFL ROFL
Exactly

[Taco John]

I didn't state I was "afraid" of anything.


I know you didn't. I did.


I made my point, others have already noticed your statement for what it is. It is apparent in the responses. But rationalize away, it makes the situation even more funny.


My statement, for what it is, is the truth. Of course people have noticed it for what it is. Kerry pulled ahead in the Rassmussen poll for the first time since August. That is the truth.

He is "starting" to pull ahead, given that it is the first time since August that he's registered ahead of Bush. That is inherent in the data.

Your red ass isn't changing any of the facts. It's just making you look like Red Ass Russ. So in other words, things are on par.

[Donger]

I know you didn't. I did.





My statement, for what it is, is the truth. Of course people have noticed it for what it is. Kerry pulled ahead in the Rassmussen poll for the first time since August. That is the truth.

He is "starting" to pull ahead, given that it is the first time since August that he's registered ahead of Bush. That is inherent in the data.

Your red ass isn't changing any of the facts. It's just making you look like Red Ass Russ. So in other words, things are on par.

If the Rasmussem poll doesn't include third-party candidates (or at least Nader), it's inherently inaccurate.

[Taco John]

If the Rasmussem poll doesn't include third-party candidates (or at least Nader), it's inherently inaccurate.


Well, do the math: 48% + 46% = 94%


That leaves 6% to account for third party candidates. That sounds about right... 3% for Nader and 3% for Badnarik.

[Cochise]

He is "starting" to pull ahead, given that it is the first time since August that he's registered ahead of Bush.

These two sentences are mutually exclusive. If someone is "starting" to pull ahead, they are not ahead yet, or they would be done pulling ahead.

Then in the very next sentence, you say that he actually IS ahead. Well, which is it?

[KingPriest2]

I know you didn't. I did.





My statement, for what it is, is the truth. Of course people have noticed it for what it is. Kerry pulled ahead in the Rassmussen poll for the first time since August. That is the truth.

He is "starting" to pull ahead, given that it is the first time since August that he's registered ahead of Bush. That is inherent in the data.

Your red ass isn't changing any of the facts. It's just making you look like Red Ass Russ. So in other words, things are on par.


The truth? You know nothing about the truth. Anyway it is only one poll.

[Donger]

Well, do the math: 48% + 46% = 94%


That leaves 6% to account for third party candidates. That sounds about right... 3% for Nader and 3% for Badnarik.

And, other polls show that Nader usually takes about two points out of Kerry and around .5 from Bush when he's included.

So, the results of this poll are inaccurate, since Rasmussen does not include Nader.

[KCWolfman]

My statement, for what it is, is the truth.
Sure it is, sure it is.

[KCWolfman]

These two sentences are mutually exclusive. If someone is "starting" to pull ahead, they are not ahead yet, or they would be done pulling ahead.

Then in the very next sentence, you say that he actually IS ahead. Well, which is it?
It is "inherent".

LMAO

[KCWolfman]

Well, do the math: 48% + 46% = 94%


That leaves 6% to account for third party candidates. That sounds about right... 3% for Nader and 3% for Badnarik.
And the undecideds?

[Mr. Kotter]

FWIW, Zogby did the best in 2000....here's his most recent.

[Taco John]

These two sentences are mutually exclusive. If someone is "starting" to pull ahead, they are not ahead yet, or they would be done pulling ahead.

Then in the very next sentence, you say that he actually IS ahead. Well, which is it?



Uh... Counting or syntax is not your strong point. You referenced two sentances, but posted one...

[Mr. Kotter]

One poll saying Kerry is "pulling ahead" in the last week....hmmmmmmm. :hmmm:

2004 Presidential Race - 3 Way
Poll Date Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Nader/
Camejo Spread
RCP Average 10/17 - 10/24 48.8% 45.7% 1.4% Bush +3.1
Reuters/Zogby (1207 LV) 10/22 - 10/24 48% 45% 1% Bush +3
TIPP (792 LV) 10/21 - 10/24 50% 42% 2% Bush +8
ABC/Wash Post (1248 LV)* 10/21 - 10/23 49% 48% 1% Bush +1
Newsweek (880 LV) 10/21 - 10/22 48% 46% 1% Bush +2
Time (803 LV) 10/19 - 10/21 51% 46% 2% Bush +5
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/18 - 10/21 49% 45% 1% Bush +4
AP-Ipsos (976 LV) 10/18 - 10/20 46% 49% 2% Kerry +3
Marist (772 LV w/leaners) 10/17 - 10/19 49% 48% 1% Bush +1
FOX News (1000 LV) 10/17 - 10/18 49% 42% 2% Bush +7
Click Here to See All 3-Way Polling Data | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average

[Mr. Kotter]

Rassmussen also says Bush's approval ratings are at 52%; and GW is up in the electoral vote count....surprised those weren't posted here.


Election 2004

National Political Tracking DataUpdated daily by Noon Eastern

Last Update Monday

Click on Topic for Details

Presidential Tracking Kerry 48 Bush 46
Congress Dem 46 GOP 42
President Bush Job Approval 52
Electoral College Bush 222 - Kerry 207

[mlyonsd]

Uh... Counting or syntax is not your strong point. You referenced two sentances, but posted one...

And spelling isn't yours.....as long as we're nitpicking.

[RINGLEADER]

If you break down Rasmussen's daily responses this represents a five-point shift in five days. During the same period Zogby has Bush up by a larger margin every day in the past three days (including by 50-43 two days ago). TIPP's tracking poll also has Bush expanding his lead over the past few days. The ABC/WP tracking poll, meanwhile, shows Kerry closing in and, based on a conversation I just had, will show Kerry tied or ahead later this afternoon.

So you have Zogby/TIPP showing Bush leading (and if you get into the internals of the Zogby poll there are nearly twice as many people leaning towards Bush from the dwindling pool of undecideds) while Rasmussen and ABC/WP show Kerry gaining.

By Thursday or Friday of this week I think you'll have a pretty good handle on who's going to win. If Kerry can maintain a lead/show momentum then he could pull it out (despite the new Zogby state polls that show Kerry losing FL, OH, WI, IA, NM, and barely winning MN, PA).

[RINGLEADER]

FWIW, Zogby did the best in 2000....here's his most recent.


Actually, Harris did the best (nailed the final results dead-on) and using the 2000 model they have Bush up +8.0. Second best goes to Fox News/Opinion Dynamics that had the net dead-on (although they had the final numbers at 43-43) who have Bush up +7.0 in their most recent poll.

Rasmussen had Bush winning 49-40 in his last Portrait Of America poll before the election.

Just to reiterate the record, I think Zogby has done a better job than Rasmussen on the national totals, but Zogby was just terrible calling states in 2000 and 2002 (which is why I eye his latest results with Bush sweeping the Battlegrounds - except for CO and MI - with just a tad bit of suspicion).

[Cochise]

Uh... Counting or syntax is not your strong point. You referenced two sentances, but posted one...

I meant 'statements' and not 'sentences'. Sorry, I thought that was inherent.

[penchief]

More like skerry the liar.

Unlike "Bush the Poser's" deadly lies.

[RINGLEADER]

Here are the full results for all the pollsters from the 2000 election (although it should be noted that a couple of these results were surveyed before the DUI story broke that undoubtedly depressed Bush support on election day):

In order of their accuracy on the net results (with ties going to the firm that got the gross numbers of support more accurate) as well as their current results in the race:

1. Harris (11/3-5) Bush 47, Gore 47, Nader 5 (Tied) - Now Bush +8
2. Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (11/1-2) Bush 43, Gore 43, Nader 3 (Tied) - Now Bush +7
3. CBS News (11/4-6) Bush 44, Gore 45, Nader 4 (Gore +1) - Now Bush +2
4. Zogby Int'l (11/5-6) Bush 46, Gore 48, Nader 5 (Gore +2) - Now Bush +3
5. TIPP (11/4-6) Bush 48, Gore 46, Nader 4 (Bush +2) - Now Bush +8
6. Gallup (11/5-6) Bush 48, Gore 46, Nader 4 (Bush +2) - Now Bush +8
7. Newsweek (10/31-11/2) Bush 45, Gore 43, Nader 5 (Bush +2) - Now Bush +2
8. ICR (11/1-5) Bush 46, Gore 44, Nader 7 (Bush +2) - Now Bush +5
9. Wash. Post (11/4-6) Bush 48, Gore 45, Nader 3 (Bush +3) - Now Bush +1
10. NBC/WSJ (11/3-5) Bush 47, Gore 44, Nader 3 (Bush +3) - Now Tied
11. Pew (11/1-4) Bush 46, Gore 43, Nader 3 (Bush +3) - Now Tied
12. Marist Inst. (11/1-2) Bush 49, Gore 44, Nader 2 (Bush +5) - Now Bush +1
13. Battleground (11/5-6) Bush 50, Gore 45, Nader 4 (Bush +5) - Now Bush +4
14. Rasmussen/Portrait Of America (11/4-6) Bush 49, Gore 40, Nader 4 (Bush +9) - Now Kerry +2

<I>On Edit: I had Rasmussen's numbers wrong in my first posts...he was even worse in 2000 with Bush leading by 9.0 points, not 7.0 points</I>

[Duck Dog]

Unlike "Bush the Poser's" deadly lies.

Bush isn't a poser. You get what you get with Bush.

sKerry on the other hand. That's a poser. He poses as a wind surfer. he poses as an X gaming teenager. He poses as a hunter, after he voted to take away the guns and ammo hunters use. He posed as someone who spoke to ALL the UN delegates. He posed when he said he had the endorsement of many foreign leaders. He was posing when he was 'in' Cambodia.

Now that I think about it. I was wrong. I should have said 'skerry the lying poser'.

[penchief]

Bush isn't a poser. You get what you get with Bush.

sKerry on the other hand. That's a poser. He poses as a wind surfer. he poses as an X gaming teenager. He poses as a hunter, after he voted to take away the guns and ammo hunters use. He posed as someone who spoke to ALL the UN delegates. He posed when he said he had the endorsement of many foreign leaders. He was posing when he was 'in' Cambodia.

Now that I think about it. I was wrong. I should have said 'skerry the lying poser'.

Bush not a poser? My god, I'm laughing so hard I can hardly contain myself. He is the ultimate poser. He is neither compassionate nor conservative. He says one thing and does another. He plays "down home" but behaves beligerently. He's a self-righteous moron who thinks he has a hotline to God but doesn't have a clue.

He's a "bought and paid for" business suit. He pretends to be president when his only job is to act resolute while all the other business suits set policy. Meanwhile, the American people, our values and traditions, our military, our economy, our environment, our families, and our social structure come under assault by this compassionate conservative.

[penchief]

Bush not a poser? My god, I'm laughing so hard I can hardly contain myself. He is the ultimate poser. He is neither compassionate nor conservative. He says one thing and does another. He plays "down home" but behaves beligerently. He's a self-righteous moron who thinks he has a hotline to God but doesn't have a clue.

He's a "bought and paid for" business suit. He pretends to be president when his only job is to act resolute while all the other business suits set policy. Meanwhile, the American people, our values and traditions, our military, our economy, our environment, our families, and our social structure come under assault by this compassionate conservative.

Oh, I forgot, he's a "uniter, not a divider," too.

[penchief]

Oh, I forgot, he's a "uniter, not a divider," too.

We won't even talk about the outright lies and distortions. You can't have it both ways. He's either a poser or a liar. Which is it?

I say he is both.

[HC_Chief]

Why don't you call him a nzai and complete the psychosis trifecta, penchief?

:rolleyes:

[Taco John]

Bush is an nzai...

Whatever one of those is...

[penchief]

Why don't you call him a nzai and complete the psychosis trifecta, penchief?

:rolleyes:

I don't have any proof of that. The others are obvious.

[Cochise]

Thanks for this RL, good information.

1. Harris - Bush +8
2. Fox News/Opinion Dynamics - Bush +7
3. CBS News - Bush +2
4. Zogby Int'l - Bush +3
5. TIPP - Bush +8
6. Gallup - Bush +8
7. Newsweek - Bush +2
8. ICR - Bush +5
9. Wash. Post - Bush +1
10. NBC/WSJ - Tied


So if you average the top 10 most accurate polls from last time around you end up with Bush +4.4

[KCWolfman]

I meant 'statements' and not 'sentences'. Sorry, I thought that was inherent.
LMAO

Rep

[Ugly Duck]

Wow... its even showing up on Rasmussen - the poll with the omnipresent Bush lead. Time for Rove to do something scurillous and degenerate...

Date Bush Kerry
Today 46.4 48.4
Oct 24 47.6 47.2
Oct 23 48.0 46.7
Oct 22 49.1 45.9
Oct 21 48.8 46.2
Oct 20 48.3 46.9
Oct 19 48.2 46.6
Oct 18 47.5 47.3
Oct 17 48.5 46.4
Oct 16 48.3 46.2
Oct 15 49.0 45.5
Oct 14 48.1 45.9
Oct 13 47.6 46.2
Oct 12 47.4 45.8
Oct 11 49.0 45.4
Oct 10 49.5 45.5

[Mr. Kotter]

Here are the full results for all the pollsters from the 2000 election (although it should be noted that a couple of these results were surveyed before the DUI story broke that undoubtedly depressed Bush support on election day):

In order of their accuracy on the net results (with ties going to the firm that got the gross numbers of support more accurate) as well as their current results in the race:

1. Harris (11/3-5) Bush 47, Gore 47, Nader 5 (Tied) - Now Bush +8
2. Fox News/Opinion Dynamics (11/1-2) Bush 43, Gore 43, Nader 3 (Tied) - Now Bush +7
3. CBS News (11/4-6) Bush 44, Gore 45, Nader 4 (Gore +1) - Now Bush +2
4. Zogby Int'l (11/5-6) Bush 46, Gore 48, Nader 5 (Gore +2) - Now Bush +3
5. TIPP (11/4-6) Bush 48, Gore 46, Nader 4 (Bush +2) - Now Bush +8
6. Gallup (11/5-6) Bush 48, Gore 46, Nader 4 (Bush +2) - Now Bush +8
7. Newsweek (10/31-11/2) Bush 45, Gore 43, Nader 5 (Bush +2) - Now Bush +2
8. ICR (11/1-5) Bush 46, Gore 44, Nader 7 (Bush +2) - Now Bush +5
9. Wash. Post (11/4-6) Bush 48, Gore 45, Nader 3 (Bush +3) - Now Bush +1
10. NBC/WSJ (11/3-5) Bush 47, Gore 44, Nader 3 (Bush +3) - Now Tied
11. Pew (11/1-4) Bush 46, Gore 43, Nader 3 (Bush +3) - Now Tied
12. Marist Inst. (11/1-2) Bush 49, Gore 44, Nader 2 (Bush +5) - Now Bush +1
13. Battleground (11/5-6) Bush 50, Gore 45, Nader 4 (Bush +5) - Now Bush +4
14. Rasmussen/Portrait Of America (11/4-6) Bush 49, Gore 40, Nader 4 (Bush +9) - Now Kerry +2

<I>On Edit: I had Rasmussen's numbers wrong in my first posts...he was even worse in 2000 with Bush leading by 9.0 points, not 7.0 points</I>

Nice research there RL. Thanks. :thumb:

[RINGLEADER]

Wow... its even showing up on Rasmussen - the poll with the omnipresent Bush lead. Time for Rove to do something scurillous and degenerate...


I mentioned a few days ago that the reaction to Kerry leading in a poll by a few points would be much different than all of the polls out there that are showing Bush leading by the same amount. So far there are three polls where Kerry is at or over 46%. EVERY poll has Bush at or over 46%.

[Calcountry]

Well, do the math: 48% + 46% = 94%


That leaves 6% to account for third party candidates. That sounds about right... 3% for Nader and 3% for Badnarik.
Do you really think that Badnarik and Nader will get 3 each? Puh lease. Others: will get less than 2 points in this election, and that includes Nader and Bad n a rik.

[Calcountry]

Bush isn't a poser. You get what you get with Bush.

sKerry on the other hand. That's a poser. He poses as a wind surfer. he poses as an X gaming teenager. He poses as a hunter, after he voted to take away the guns and ammo hunters use. He posed as someone who spoke to ALL the UN delegates. He posed when he said he had the endorsement of many foreign leaders. He was posing when he was 'in' Cambodia.

Now that I think about it. I was wrong. I should have said 'skerry the lying poser'.
Dude, that would make a GREAT commercial.

Dont get hosed by the poser.

[Mr. Kotter]

Hmmm......wonder why TJ didn't update his post; er, I guess he may have, and I might not be able to see it....

Looks like the "closer" is slippin' again--even after the Non-Missing Weapons story of the past few days..... :hmmm:

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.8% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.0%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[KCWolfman]

You can't have it both ways......

I say he is both.

Irony, your seat is prepared.

[KCWolfman]

Hmmm......wonder why TJ didn't update his post; er, I guess he may have, and I might not be able to see it....

Looks like the "closer" is slippin' again--even after the Non-Missing Weapons story of the past few days..... :hmmm:

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.8% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.0%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
I can help TJ on this one...

He is pulling ahead. It is inherent that he must go backwards a little bit to gather speed to move ahead of GWB.

[memyselfI]

Hmmm......wonder why TJ didn't update his post; er, I guess he may have, and I might not be able to see it....

Looks like the "closer" is slippin' again--even after the Non-Missing Weapons story of the past few days..... :hmmm:

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48.8% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47.0%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/


Good. :thumb:

[Hel'n]

Good. :thumb:

Some more from Rasmussen:

Election 2004

National Political Tracking Data

Updated daily by Noon Eastern

Last Update Wednesday

Click on Topic for Details

Presidential Tracking Bush 49 Kerry 47
Congress Dem 44 GOP 42
President Bush Job Approval 52
Electoral College Bush 222 - Kerry 207
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47
Kerry Favorable 51 Unfavorable 48
Battleground States Bush 48 Kerry 48
Right Track? Right 43 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 49 Kerry 41
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 52 Kerry 43
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 Kerry 46
Winning the War on Terror US 49 Terrorists 27
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 45 Poor 43
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 43 Poor 42

[Hel'n]

Electoral-vote.com: Kerry 257 : Bush 274

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct27.png

News from the Votemaster
The polling continues apace. We have 28 new polls today with changes in three states. First, Wisconsin has now switched to the Kerry column, according to a Zogby tracking poll conducted Oct 23-26. Kerry is now ahead 48% to 46% in one of the swingingest of the swing states. But with a margin of error of 4%, it is still a statistical tie there.

Zogby also shows that Iowa has become a tie at 45% each, according to its Oct. 23-26 poll. Gallup ran a poll in Iowa Oct. 22-25, only a day before Zogby's, and found that among registered voters, Kerry leads 48% to 47%. However, among what Gallup believes are likely voters, Bush is ahead 50% to 46%, a surprisingly large difference. This immediately brings up the issue of how Gallup decides to reject some respondents as unlikely voters. The likely voter screen involves questions about past voting behavior, interest in the election, and knowledge of where the polling place is. Given the huge number of new voters this year, there are legitimate questions about how accurately pollsters can predict likely voters. For this reason, the spreadsheet and map just use the registered voter data where that is available. In this specific case, Zogby's poll is more recent so the issue is moot.

The third change is in Arkansas, where Bush now leads again. This result is not surprising as most observers didn't think there was much of a horse race in Arkansas to begin with. All in all, Kerry gains ground in the electoral college today, reducing Bush's lead to 17 EVs.

Also noteworthy are the four Florida and four Ohio polls today although neither of those states changed hands. Of the four Florida polls, two of them (ARG and Survey USA) give Kerry leads of 3% and 2%, respectively, one of them (Rasmussen) is a tie at 48% apiece, and one of them (Zogby) shows Bush ahead by 4%. I find it ironic that all summer long I was bombarded with e-mail from Republicans denouncing John Zogby as an unreliable Democrat, but that now that he is the only one showing Bush ahead in the key swing states, the e-mail has abruptly ceased. But Zogby's poll is the most recent, so it is the one I am using. Nevertheless, trouble is clearly brewing for Bush in Florida.

We also have four polls in Ohio today. Kerry leads in two (ARG and Survey USA) and trails in two (Zogby and Rasmussen). As in Florida, everything will depend on turnout. It will be very close in any case.

Rasmussen did a survey asking people if they were worried about a Florida-style mess again this year. The results are that 48% of the Kerry voters are worried about this as well as 16% of the Bush voters. I think it is very disturbing when a third of the electorate have doubts about whether there will be a fair election. No doubt these fears are enhanced when election officials reject voter registrations because the paper was the wrong weight. And having states go to court to fight for the right to discard provisional ballots cast by voters in the wrong precinct (for example, because they have moved) doesn't exactly send the message that every vote is important. The BBC has scooped the U.S. media by obtaining a secret document that reports on more upcoming voter suppression activities, possibly in violation of U.S. law

The Los Angeles Times has a story today that explains why this election is so much more emotionally charged than previous ones. It is not about economics, but part of a cultural war. A new LA Times poll shows Bush doing well among lower and middle income whites, whereas Kerry leads among whites earning more than $100,000 a year despite his promise to roll back the Bush tax cuts for people making more than $200,000 a year. As president, Bush has enacted big tax cuts for the rich but the rich are voting for Kerry. What's up here? The same poll shows that 2/3 of the people who attend a house of worship at least once a week are voting for Bush, whereas 60% of those who attend religious services less than once a week are voting for Kerry, in part because these voters recoil at Bush's constant use of religious imagery. Lower income whites like Bush's proposal to ban gay marriage but only a quarter believe his policies have been good for the economy. In contrast, affluent whites who have benefitted the most from the Bush tax cuts believe Bush's policies have hurt the economy. In short, far more than in previous years, economic policy is taking a back seat to cultural issues. The real divide seems to be between deeply religious lower income, lower education, voters living in small towns and rural areas who have conservative values on abortion and gay marriage versus higher income, higher education, secular, urban voters who have progressive views on cultural issues. Maybe James Carville was wrong: It's NOT the economy, stupid. With this background and the fact that eight of the nine Supreme Court justices are past the traditional retirement age of 65 and four of them have been treated for cancer, it is likely that the choice of who the next president will nominate to the Court will weigh increasingly heavily on the minds of many voters as we approach election day. For more on this issue, see this story also, in the LA Times.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[memyselfI]

Some more from Rasmussen:

Election 2004



I really, really want Kerry a couple of points down so I'm getting alittle nervous with him getting so close to catching the chimp.

[Mr. Kotter]

Hel'n showed hers, here's one of mine...

[Mr. Kotter]

And another....

Bush 274, Kerry 257

[Mr. Kotter]

Yet another...

Bush 234, Kerry 228....rest "toss-up"

[go bowe]

those ec maps are interesting, but could you provide the sources of the map data for the last 2 maps?

i'm curious as to which pollster's numbers are used to determine the maps...

i'd like to compare/evaluate them with ringleader's observations about the accuracy of the various polls...

[Taco John]

That Federal Review one is a joke.

The other ones look pretty accurate.

For what it's worth, yesterday Rassmussen had Kerry and Bush a 48% apiece... Today it's 49% Bush, 47% Kerry...

[Mr. Kotter]

those ec maps are interesting, but could you provide the sources of the map data for the last 2 maps?

i'm curious as to which pollster's numbers are used to determine the maps...

i'd like to compare/evaluate them with ringleader's observations about the accuracy of the various polls...

Sorry John, one is from http://www.electoral-vote.com/

and the other is from:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html

the federal review one is here:

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

[go bowe]

Sorry John, one is from http://www.electoral-vote.com/

and the other is from:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html

the federal review one is here:

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm the first two, electoral-vote and realclearpolitics, seem to rely on an amalgamation of the various polls, yet end up with considerably different ec totals...

the federal review one seems to rely on its weighting system regarding the various polls, and there are a lot of assumptions made that seem to make the assumptions about "likely voters" look tame by comparison...

seems like the ev map and the rcp map are probably better gauges, but aren't they saying the same thing that most all the polls are saying, that it's too close to call (aka as a statistical dead heat)?

[Taco John]

Looks like it might have been inherent afterall, eh Russ?

[KCWolfman]

Looks like it might have been inherent afterall, eh Russ?
Umm, no. There is a difference between truth and inherent - you didn't have either in your statement.

[Taco John]

Actually, I had them both... Kerry was pulling ahead of Bush, and it was just starting. Truth and inherency.

I expect your denial to last for quite some time though. That's also inherent.

[KCWolfman]

Actually, I had them both... Kerry was pulling ahead of Bush, and it was just starting. Truth and inherency.

I expect your denial to last for quite some time though. That's also inherent.
Still have those "inherent" truths?

Buwauhahahaa

[Ultra Peanut]

<img src="http://www.allhatnocattle.net/Bush%20chinese%20finger.jpg" style="width: 320px; height: 426px; border: 0" alt="" />

"Close this, mother****er!"

[WilliamTheIrish]

Damn, that's hilarious.

[Mr. Kotter]

Bumpity.... ROFL

[Cochise]

ROFL ROFL ROFL

Come on guys, it's inherent that Kerry won the election ROFL ROFL ROFL

[Mr. Kotter]

ROFL ROFL ROFL

Come on guys, it's inherent that Kerry won the election ROFL ROFL ROFL

DEVASTATING... ROFL