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Hel'n
11-01-2004, 06:40 PM
News from the Votemaster

We have another bumper crop of polls today, 50 in all. Since Sept. 1, the total number of polls in the Polling data file is 937. Toss in another 252 polls from May 24 to Aug. 31 and we have the most studied election in the history of the world. And what's the conclusion? Nobody knows. If we just look at the most recent poll in every state, John Kerry will be elected the 44th President of the United States tomorrow with 298 votes in the electoral college vs. 231 for George Bush, with New Mexico and New Hampshire exact ties. However, even if Bush carries both of these states, Kerry still wins 298 to 240. But again, a caution is in order, Kerry's margin is razor thin in Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. Pennsylvania will probably go to Kerry. Ohio is more iffy. Bush won it in 2000 and stands a decent chance of winning it in 2004 although he trails by 2% using the average of the Zogby and Gallup polls taken Oct. 28-31. Thus after 4 years of campaigning, more money spent on attack ads than the gross national product of small countries, and an exhausted electorate, what do we have? In the immortal words of Yogi Berra: "It's deja vu all over again." The whole thing comes down to Florida where Kerry currently holds a tenuous 48% to 47% lead according to the most recent poll, from Zogby. The reality is that everything depends on turnout, how many voting machines fail, and how much monkey business happens. Oh, yeah. And there are those 10,000 lawyers ready to do what lawyers are trained to do--file lawsuits.

If Bush picks up Florida and the two states that are tied (NH and NV), then Kerry wins 271 to 267, the same margin Gore should have lost by last time. Actually, he lost 271 to 266 because one Gore elector from D.C., Barbara Lett-Simmons cast a blank ballot in protest of D.C.'s not having representation in Congress. It could be a long night, especially if Bush picks up either Florida or Ohio and a couple of small Kerry states in the East or Midwest, so everything depends on New Mexico.

As I have discussed repeatedly, normally people with a cell phone but no landline are not polled. Most of these are in the 18-29 year old group. Up until now, no one has known how their absence from the polling data might affect the results. Zogby has now conducted a very large (N = 6039) poll exclusively on cell phones using SMS messaging to get a feeling of how they will vote. The results are that they go strongly for Kerry, 55% to 40%, with a margin of error of only 1.2%. If they all vote tomorrow, the pollsters are going to spend the rest of the week wiping egg from their faces. But historically, younger voters have a miserable turnout record, so the pollsters need not yet stock up on paper towels.

Here are some things to remember about voting. Read carefully. Your vote could decide this election.

Find out today where your polling place is by calling your county clerk or checking www.mypollingplace.com
Alternatively, call 1-866-MYVOTE1 to find your polling place.
Check the hours the polls are open with your city or county clerk.
Print the League of Women Voters' card in English or Spanish and put it in your wallet or purse.
Bring a government-issued picture ID like a driver's license or passport when you vote. Some states require it but if there are problems, you will certainly need it. If you have a cell phone, take it to call for help if need be.
As you enter the polls, note if there is an Election Protection person outside the polling place.
If you are not listed as a registered voter, try to register on the spot. Some states allow that. Otherwise, talk to the Election Protection person if there is one or call 1-866-OUR-VOTE for instructions. If neither of these helps, ask for a provisional ballot, but you will need a picture ID to get one.
For other election resources, see the League of Women Voters website. Your vote counts. Don't let anyone take it away from you.A

For the longer term, we need voting machines we can trust. One group working on this is the Open voting consortium. If you want to help ensure fair voting in 2006, check out their website.

Here are the current national polls for 2004.

Pollster News
organization Dates Kerry Bush Nader
Opinion Dynamics Fox News Oct. 29-30 47 45 1
Zogby Reuters Oct. 28-30 48 48 1
ABC ABC Oct. 27-30 48 49 1
PSRAI Pew Oct. 27-30 46 45 1
Gallup CNN/USA Today Oct. 29-31 47 49 1
Hart/McInturff NBC/WSJ Oct. 29-31 47 48 1
CBS/NYT CBS/NYT Oct. 28-30 46 49 1
Greenberg Oct. 29-30 48 47 0
American Research Grp Oct. 28-30 48 48 1
PSRAI Newsweek Oct. 27-29 44 48 1

For reference, here are the final 2000 polls. The election was held Nov. 6, 2000.

Pollster News
organization Dates Gore Bush Nader
ABC ABC Nov. 3-5 45 48 3
American Viewpoint (R) Oct. 18-22 40 42 5
CBS News CBS Nov. 4-6 45 44 4
CBS/NYT CBS/NYT Nov. 1-4 42 47 5
Gallup CNN/USA Today Nov. 5-6 46 48 4
Harris Nov. 3-5 47 47 5
Hart (D) / Teeter (R) NBC/WSJ Nov. 3-5 44 47 3
Marist College Nov. 1-2 44 49 2
Opinion Dynamics Fox Nov. 1-2 43 43 3
Princeton Survey Pew Nov. 2-5 47 49 4
Princeton Survey Newsweek Oct. 31-Nov. 2 43 45 5
Princeton Survey Bloomberg Oct. 23-29 43 46 5
Wirthline (R) Oct. 20-23 43 47 4
Yankelovich Time/CNN Oct. 25-26 43 49 3
Zogby Reuters Nov. 4-6 48 46 5

The final 2000 results were: Gore 48.38%, Bush 47.87%, Nader 2.74%

A survey USA poll conducted Oct. 28-30 on Colorado's amendment 36, which would split the state's 9 electoral votes in proportion to the popular vote looks like it is going down to defeat 65% to 32%.

In the event of another attack on the Website, please try www.electoral-vote3.com, www.electoral-vote4.com, www.electoral-vote5.com, etc. But stick with the main site if it works. After an update, half a dozen 60-MB files get shipped all over the country and it takes a while to get there, so the main site is always more up to date. I just upgraded each of the main servers to 2 GB each. They should be able to handle 500-1000 requests/sec each now. I hope that is enough. Cross your fingers.


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Projected Senate: 45 Democrats, 52 Republicans, 1 independent, 2 tossups

http://www.electoral-vote.com

NaptownChief
11-01-2004, 06:43 PM
I expect a Bush win but it certainly looks to be very close...However I would be shocked if Kerry won by a Kerry 298 Bush 231 margin. I'm betting that will be one of the most off base pre-election predictions flying around.

Donger
11-01-2004, 06:48 PM
There was a blurb on Federal Review today discussing how EV was cooking numbers. I'll see if I can find it.

Michael Michigan
11-01-2004, 07:14 PM
There was a blurb on Federal Review today discussing how EV was cooking numbers. I'll see if I can find it.

My guess is he is using Zogby's numbers as the "latest" as Zogby is now waiting until early evening to release his state-by-state numbers.

The folks I talk with believe it is to influence web sites like that one that use the "latest" numbers.

RINGLEADER
11-01-2004, 07:49 PM
Even if he uses Zogby numbers Bush is still going to win (if you give Bush FL due to the fact that all the polls from FL today except for Zogby's and Fox's went for Bush).

Fox state polls show Bush winning.
Survey USA state polls show Bush winning.
Rasmussen state polls show Bush winning.
Gallup state polls show Bush winning.
Mason-Dixon state polls show Bush winning.

ARG state polls show Kerry winning.

Zogby state polls show same as last time with FL tied.

RINGLEADER
11-01-2004, 07:50 PM
Also, I'd lay money Zogby had this planned from the beginning of his tracking polls...the daily updates have made no sense (with candidates swapping 10 point leads in single days of polling), but at the end he comes back and makes it look just like the 2000 election. What a great story! I'm sure he'll be interviewed everywhere...

HolmeZz
11-01-2004, 08:17 PM
Polls mean nothing. You'll all find that out tomorrow.

MadProphetMargin
11-01-2004, 08:18 PM
Polls mean nothing. You'll all find that out tomorrow.

This is the correct answer.

RINGLEADER
11-01-2004, 08:19 PM
I just went to this website and they get this total by giving both Ohio and Florida to Kerry. How they do this is a mystery since there were eight polls in both states in the past two days. In Ohio the results were 7 for Bush and 1 for Kerry and in Florida it was 4 for Bush, 2 tied and 2 for Kerry. Even the Zogby results he's relying on appear to be the ones from yesterday.

If you're going to have a website that supposedly bases the results on polling it would be a good idea to listen to what the polls are saying.

MadProphetMargin
11-01-2004, 08:22 PM
I just went to this website and they get this total by giving both Ohio and Florida to Kerry. How they do this is a mystery since there were eight polls in both states in the past two days. In Ohio the results were 7 for Bush and 1 for Kerry and in Florida it was 4 for Bush, 2 tied and 2 for Kerry. Even the Zogby results he's relying on appear to be the ones from yesterday.

If you're going to have a website that supposedly bases the results on polling it would be a good idea to listen to what the polls are saying.


In this election, moreso than in many others, ALL polling is witchdoctery.

Many people will vanish from many forums for a while, tomorrow, one side or the other.

memyselfI
11-01-2004, 08:36 PM
In this election, moreso than in many others, ALL polling is witchdoctery.

Many people will vanish from many forums for a while, tomorrow, one side or the other.

Not a chance. I'll be here. Maybe not tomorrow night (no matter who wins) but shortly thereafter...

if I showed up after a certain SB appearance then I'll certainly not dodge another stolen election. :p