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View Full Version : November 1 (Last Update): Avg. Of All State Polls Shows Bush 296, Kerry 242


RINGLEADER
11-01-2004, 10:09 PM
A final data dump into the polling program shows that when all of the available Battleground state polls are averaged out and those undecideds that are projected to vote (historically 50% of the remaining undecideds on the final day of polling) are allocated 33% for Bush and 67% for Kerry the following results are generated:

Bush starts with 191 safe non-Battleground electoral votes.
Kerry starts with 160 safe non-Battleground electoral votes.

Bush wins the following states, representing 36 Electoral Votes, by more than 3.0%: WV (B+7.95), CO (B+5.57), MO (B+3.58), NV (B+3.19), AR (B+3.4)

Bush wins the following states, representing 20 Electoral Votes, by 1.0%-3.0%: OH (B+1.53)

Bush wins the following states, representing 49 Electoral Votes, by less than 1.0%: NM (B+0.82), FL (B+0.57), WI (B+0.41), IA (B+0.02)

Kerry wins the following states, representing 4 Electoral Votes, by less than 1.0%: HI (K+0.79)

Kerry wins the following states, representing 25 Electoral Votes, by 1.0%-3.0%: NH (K+1.52), PA (K+1.91)

Kerry wins the following states, representing 53 Electoral Votes, by more than 3.0%: MN (K+3.32), MI (K+4.20), OR (K+5.64), NJ (K+8.24), ME (K+10.72)

That gives Bush a final total of Electoral Votes from the averages of all available Battleground polls, including undecideds that are projected to vote, of 296 Electoral Votes versus a final tally for Kerry from the same data of 242.

Obviously, the states that Bush is polling after adjustments under 1.0% represent a much larger (and necessary) contribution to his final total than Kerry's 4 EVs from Hawaii. Kerry can take the lead if he is able to secure 85% of the undecided vote in Florida and 78% of the undecided vote in Wisconsin (thus swinging 37 EVs to his column).

This isn't my prediction, but it does represent what the polls are showing with the voting undecideds going 2-1 for Kerry.

RINGLEADER
11-01-2004, 10:18 PM
Using the same formulas on the national polls reveals that Bush wins 12 of the national polls once voting undecideds have been factored in and loses three of them (Fox News, American Research Group and Marist). The blended average of all the national polls with half of the remaining undecideds voting 2-1 for Kerry results in a final popular vote tally of 49.91% for Bush and 48.88% for Kerry (the rest go to Nader plus other third parties that are projected to draw .5%).

RINGLEADER
11-01-2004, 10:22 PM
My final projection will be either Bush 276 or Bush 269 depending on whether he loses Ohio or Florida. I see Bush switching WI, IA and NM with an outside chance at HI (but I'll give that to Kerry for now). Kerry wins PA, MI, MN, and NH.

That's my (revised) pick...we'll see how well it holds up (and how well the pollsters are doing ;) )

Bearcat2005
11-01-2004, 10:29 PM
Yeah I got kerry taking NJ,MN,NM,Penn,Mich! Bush I believe will take Fl,OH,IA,WI,CO! But we will see tomorrow! :hmmm:

Inspector
11-01-2004, 10:59 PM
D enise and some of the others said that Kerry was winning.

I'm so confused.....

The Pedestrian
11-01-2004, 11:37 PM
Where's my interactive map, damnit?! :cuss: