RINGLEADER
11-01-2004, 09:09 PM
A final data dump into the polling program shows that when all of the available Battleground state polls are averaged out and those undecideds that are projected to vote (historically 50% of the remaining undecideds on the final day of polling) are allocated 33% for Bush and 67% for Kerry the following results are generated:
Bush starts with 191 safe non-Battleground electoral votes.
Kerry starts with 160 safe non-Battleground electoral votes.
Bush wins the following states, representing 36 Electoral Votes, by more than 3.0%: WV (B+7.95), CO (B+5.57), MO (B+3.58), NV (B+3.19), AR (B+3.4)
Bush wins the following states, representing 20 Electoral Votes, by 1.0%-3.0%: OH (B+1.53)
Bush wins the following states, representing 49 Electoral Votes, by less than 1.0%: NM (B+0.82), FL (B+0.57), WI (B+0.41), IA (B+0.02)
Kerry wins the following states, representing 4 Electoral Votes, by less than 1.0%: HI (K+0.79)
Kerry wins the following states, representing 25 Electoral Votes, by 1.0%-3.0%: NH (K+1.52), PA (K+1.91)
Kerry wins the following states, representing 53 Electoral Votes, by more than 3.0%: MN (K+3.32), MI (K+4.20), OR (K+5.64), NJ (K+8.24), ME (K+10.72)
That gives Bush a final total of Electoral Votes from the averages of all available Battleground polls, including undecideds that are projected to vote, of 296 Electoral Votes versus a final tally for Kerry from the same data of 242.
Obviously, the states that Bush is polling after adjustments under 1.0% represent a much larger (and necessary) contribution to his final total than Kerry's 4 EVs from Hawaii. Kerry can take the lead if he is able to secure 85% of the undecided vote in Florida and 78% of the undecided vote in Wisconsin (thus swinging 37 EVs to his column).
This isn't my prediction, but it does represent what the polls are showing with the voting undecideds going 2-1 for Kerry.
Bush starts with 191 safe non-Battleground electoral votes.
Kerry starts with 160 safe non-Battleground electoral votes.
Bush wins the following states, representing 36 Electoral Votes, by more than 3.0%: WV (B+7.95), CO (B+5.57), MO (B+3.58), NV (B+3.19), AR (B+3.4)
Bush wins the following states, representing 20 Electoral Votes, by 1.0%-3.0%: OH (B+1.53)
Bush wins the following states, representing 49 Electoral Votes, by less than 1.0%: NM (B+0.82), FL (B+0.57), WI (B+0.41), IA (B+0.02)
Kerry wins the following states, representing 4 Electoral Votes, by less than 1.0%: HI (K+0.79)
Kerry wins the following states, representing 25 Electoral Votes, by 1.0%-3.0%: NH (K+1.52), PA (K+1.91)
Kerry wins the following states, representing 53 Electoral Votes, by more than 3.0%: MN (K+3.32), MI (K+4.20), OR (K+5.64), NJ (K+8.24), ME (K+10.72)
That gives Bush a final total of Electoral Votes from the averages of all available Battleground polls, including undecideds that are projected to vote, of 296 Electoral Votes versus a final tally for Kerry from the same data of 242.
Obviously, the states that Bush is polling after adjustments under 1.0% represent a much larger (and necessary) contribution to his final total than Kerry's 4 EVs from Hawaii. Kerry can take the lead if he is able to secure 85% of the undecided vote in Florida and 78% of the undecided vote in Wisconsin (thus swinging 37 EVs to his column).
This isn't my prediction, but it does represent what the polls are showing with the voting undecideds going 2-1 for Kerry.