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RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 11:39 AM
Bush up 49-41 in the exit polling in Ohio so far...Doesn't mean it ends up that way, but that's what the exit polling is showing as of a couple minutes ago...

Will post more as I hear/read it...

Bearcat2005
11-02-2004, 11:42 AM
I hope this keeps up for GW, lets just hope that if whoever wins people can accept it and move on!

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 11:43 AM
I give the OH numbers a big :shrug: so far...I understand how you can get a 10% unresponsive on an exit poll, but there's a pretty sizeable margin of error in there considering Nader isn't on the ballot.

Captain Obvious
11-02-2004, 11:46 AM
Hey RL,

You got a link to this stuff, or is this some of your insider info? I'm telling my bro what you've posted and he wants to check for himself...I'm a bit curious as well.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 11:48 AM
This comes from NRO. It's probably the best place to get the inside scoop on the early numbers (has been in the past).

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 11:49 AM
I did just trade e-mails with another media person who's got a contact inside both the Bush and Kerry campaign who says he'll pass along any big info...when I hear it I'll post it here.

alnorth
11-02-2004, 11:51 AM
NRO also has a precautionary note saying the first round of exit polling is not usually reliable. If you have a Clinton-Dole avalanche it might show that, but for close elections you apparently need to wait for the afternoon totals coming in an hour or two.

That said, having Bush up by 8 in an "unreliable" poll is better than having him down in an "unreliable" poll!

Baby Lee
11-02-2004, 11:52 AM
I hope this keeps up for GW, lets just hope that if whoever wins people can accept it and move on!
In the past few days, I've gotten an increasing fear that Bush's re-election could result in an assassination attempt.

That's a FEAR, folks. Not an allegation, or a suggestion of evidence.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 11:53 AM
Now Lopez says the data shows Kerry up +4 in Ohio. Again, just passing along what I hear...

alnorth
11-02-2004, 11:54 AM
Speak of the devil, the second wave of exit polling is out in Ohio, and Kerry is now apparently up 4.

Calcountry
11-02-2004, 11:56 AM
I give the OH numbers a big :shrug: so far...I understand how you can get a 10% unresponsive on an exit poll, but there's a pretty sizeable margin of error in there considering Nader isn't on the ballot.
Look at it like the Chiefs lead at halftime last Sunday.

With each tick of the clock, the percent chance that they will be able to overcome the deficit diminishes at an accelrating rate.

Calcountry
11-02-2004, 11:57 AM
I did just trade e-mails with another media person who's got a contact inside both the Bush and Kerry campaign who says he'll pass along any big info...when I hear it I'll post it here.
This makes the Planet your news leader for breaking election news.

I love it RL :thumb:

Amnorix
11-02-2004, 12:00 PM
I did just trade e-mails with another media person who's got a contact inside both the Bush and Kerry campaign who says he'll pass along any big info...when I hear it I'll post it here.

Can I ask what it is you do for a living, even if only in a general way?

Saggysack
11-02-2004, 12:05 PM
Can I ask what it is you do for a living, even if only in a general way?

Well, I'm really a rocket scientist but that field wasn't complimentary to my skills. Now I walk dogs. I'm a super pooper scooper. Still holding out hope to be a budtender though.

OH......nevermind. :doh!:

MOhillbilly
11-02-2004, 12:05 PM
In the past few days, I've gotten an increasing fear that Bush's re-election could result in an assassination attempt.

That's a FEAR, folks. Not an allegation, or a suggestion of evidence.


yep,the frankies of the world will shit.

SoCalBronco
11-02-2004, 12:14 PM
Zogby is saying his exit polls have the following:
PA: Tied
VA: Tied (this surprises me)
FL: Bush ahead
CO: Kerry ahead

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 12:14 PM
Kerry ahead +1 in FL

SoCalBronco
11-02-2004, 12:21 PM
its important to remember either way the first batch of polling isnt necessarily accurate. This is why i am still cautious despite hearing of substantially higher turnout and better numbers in rural counties (i.e. bush counties).

KCN
11-02-2004, 12:26 PM
Speak of the devil, the second wave of exit polling is out in Ohio, and Kerry is now apparently up 4.

We Kerry voters like to sleep in.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 12:30 PM
The exit polling is as accurate as any polling. And, like any other polling, it's always nicer to be on the north side of the results ;)

That said, the early results in 2000 had Bush up in PA and down in FL.

Florida doesn't bother me as much as OH...I was really hoping Bush could take them both. And it isn't outside the realm of possibility that Kerry could sweep all the remaining Battlegrounds (WI, IA, MN, NM, HI, and OR).

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 12:31 PM
We Kerry voters like to sleep in.


Slacker.

ROFL ROFL ROFL

KCN
11-02-2004, 12:34 PM
Zogby is saying his exit polls have the following:
PA: Tied
VA: Tied (this surprises me)
FL: Bush ahead
CO: Kerry ahead

Are these exit polls? If you go to zogby's webpage, these look to be projected results from yesterday.

alnorth
11-02-2004, 12:35 PM
Bush is down all over the place.

Down 4 in Ohio, 4 in Florida, 1 in NM, 1 in Mich, 2 in Iowa

SoCalBronco
11-02-2004, 12:36 PM
KCN, i dont know thats what i just read. It was today supposedly.
From NRO, supposedly part of the first batch:
FL: Kerry 4
OH: Kerry 4
MI: Kerry 1
IA: Kerry 2

they did mention that the first batch is generally unreliable but im just passing the info along.

alnorth
11-02-2004, 12:36 PM
New Hampshire is rumored to be totally lost, Florida is looking surprisingly bad.

alnorth
11-02-2004, 12:38 PM
OK apparently, these exit polls coming out now are still from this morning. None of the afternoon exit polls have hit the line yet, so this all still falls in the "unreliable" category. That said, its better to be winning an "unreliable" poll than lose.

KingPriest2
11-02-2004, 12:40 PM
Bush is down all over the place.

Down 4 in Ohio, 4 in Florida, 1 in NM, 1 in Mich, 2 in Iowa


Where are you getting this from? link?

SoCalBronco
11-02-2004, 12:42 PM
how do you know its morning stuff alnorth?

John_Wayne
11-02-2004, 12:46 PM
Looking good so far.

alnorth
11-02-2004, 12:46 PM
Where are you getting this from? link?

NRO (http://www.nationalreview.com/)

how do you know its morning stuff alnorth?

Radio interview. Makes sence, the "afternoon" is right now, hard to believe theyd have "afternoon" results till an hour or two.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 12:54 PM
Evidently Bush is doing better than expected in MI and PA and Kerry is doing better than expected in FL and OH. I don't feel like the chances of Bush winning either MI or PA are very strong though.

alnorth
11-02-2004, 01:12 PM
Drudge is reporting that the early exit polls are 60-40 women/men, which is fine for the networks since men would presumably vote later in the day, but it makes these midday polls biased towards Kerry if true. (Historically male voters slightly outnumber women, we wont have that reversed to 60-40 women this year)

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 01:19 PM
If the exit polls are 60/40 women to men then Bush is going to win in a landslide. As I said I got an e-mail from my friend who says that a move of one or two points in FL, OH, MI, PA, WI and IA will move all of the states into Bush's column.

Again, as I said upthread, it's always nice to be on the side above 50% even if the past exit polls have wildly wrong (another site pointed to the CO senate race in 2000 that showed Allred down 10 points in the early afternoon) in the past.

I feel like I'm getting perilously close to "polls don't matter" territory ;)

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 01:21 PM
If the exit polls are 60/40 women to men then Bush is going to win in a landslide. As I said I got an e-mail from my friend who says that a move of one or two points in FL, OH, MI, PA, WI and IA will move all of the states into Bush's column.

Again, as I said upthread, it's always nice to be on the side above 50% even if the past exit polls have wildly wrong (another site pointed to the CO senate race in 2000 that showed Allred down 10 points in the early afternoon) in the past.

I feel like I'm getting perilously close to "polls don't matter" territory ;)

I think you might be dreaming a bit... Women are very concerned about sons and other folks' boys being sent to godforsaken Iraq...

I think you're going to be a bit surprised at the vote...

But, hell, I might be the one who's surprised...

mlyonsd
11-02-2004, 01:22 PM
I feel like I'm getting perilously close to "polls don't matter" territory ;)

Wow, someplace somewhere is getting close to freezing over.

Baby Lee
11-02-2004, 01:24 PM
I think you might be dreaming a bit... Women are very concerned about sons and other folks' boys being sent to godforsaken Iraq...

I think you're going to be a bit surprised at the vote...

But, hell, I might be the one who's surprised...
I think you are misreading the point. He's saying, if the morning exit polls are 60/40 favoring women votes, and Bush/Kerry are still this close, Bush is gonna open up a lead when the men's votes start rolling in later in the day.

Amnorix
11-02-2004, 01:30 PM
I think you are misreading the point. He's saying, if the morning exit polls are 60/40 favoring women votes, and Bush/Kerry are still this close, Bush is gonna open up a lead when the men's votes start rolling in later in the day.

I recently read, I think in the WSJ, that the female preference for Democrats has been pretty much completely eliminated. I don't follow this stuff as close as some (including Ringleader certainly), but I know I read that somewhere....

alnorth
11-02-2004, 01:31 PM
Gender gap has closed a tad, but it wasnt eliminated. (60/40 split 4 years ago would be a 8+ point lead, not 1-4 points like now)

KCTitus
11-02-2004, 01:33 PM
I recently read, I think in the WSJ, that the female preference for Democrats has been pretty much completely eliminated. I don't follow this stuff as close as some (including Ringleader certainly), but I know I read that somewhere....

I read something like that, but it was the Soccer Moms favoring Bush and the Career Women/College Woment favoring Kerry by large margin.

alnorth
11-02-2004, 01:35 PM
In other news, the Senate is a mixed bag in the early exits. Thune is apparently going to scalp Daschle, but aside from him, the GOP might have a +1 net right now. (maybe more if the bad weighting proves true)

SoCalBronco
11-02-2004, 01:40 PM
I am VERY relieved now that i know it is 59/41 women. The other posters are right to an extent, the gender gap has been amelerioated somewhat, but its well settled Kerry has a statistically significant lead among women and Bush does among men. If Kerry is ahead in OH by 4, FL by 3, with men underreported by about 9%, Kerry is in trouble.

Calcountry
11-02-2004, 01:42 PM
Evidently Bush is doing better than expected in MI and PA and Kerry is doing better than expected in FL and OH. I don't feel like the chances of Bush winning either MI or PA are very strong though.
Brother Jeb WILL deliver Florida. If he doesn't, thanksgiving is gonna be heck at the Bush's.

Brando
11-02-2004, 01:49 PM
Brother Jeb WILL deliver Florida. If he doesn't, thanksgiving is gonna be heck at the Bush's.

Could you please pass the...dagger in my back..oh thanks Jeb :)

jcl-kcfan2
11-02-2004, 01:49 PM
I think you might be dreaming a bit... Women are very concerned about sons and other folks' boys being sent to godforsaken Iraq...

I think you're going to be a bit surprised at the vote...

But, hell, I might be the one who's surprised...


Yes, me and my wife are both concerned for our daughter, that is why we are voting for Bush. As I stated, she will be in Iraq in Jan. 05.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 01:57 PM
I think you might be dreaming a bit... Women are very concerned about sons and other folks' boys being sent to godforsaken Iraq...

I think you're going to be a bit surprised at the vote...

But, hell, I might be the one who's surprised...


I don't think Bush is going to carry the women vote, but I also think there is almost no chance that women make up 59% of the electorate (it's been around 52% for many election cycles).

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 01:59 PM
I recently read, I think in the WSJ, that the female preference for Democrats has been pretty much completely eliminated. I don't follow this stuff as close as some (including Ringleader certainly), but I know I read that somewhere....

You're dead-on Amnorix...which is why I've been discounting the stories showing Bush leading (or almost leading) the women's vote and doubling his Jewish and African-American vote. If Bush actually does this there is absolutely no way that Kerry wins and I don't believe that there is absolutely no way that Kerry can't win.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 02:02 PM
I am VERY relieved now that i know it is 59/41 women. The other posters are right to an extent, the gender gap has been amelerioated somewhat, but its well settled Kerry has a statistically significant lead among women and Bush does among men. If Kerry is ahead in OH by 4, FL by 3, with men underreported by about 9%, Kerry is in trouble.


Drudge is reporting Kerry up 1% in FL and 1% in OH.

Remember, exit polling is a poll with the same levels of margin of error as others (and even higher if it is skewed to women).

Drudge also reminds us that Gore was up +3 in Florida in the exit polling in 2000.

Still comes down to FL and OH. And if they split it then comes down to MN, WI, IA and NM (with a very slim outside chance that HI may matter).

Infidel Goat
11-02-2004, 02:57 PM
On Slate:

Fl:
Kerry 50
Bush 49

OH:
Kerry 50
Bush 49

PA:
Kerry 54
Bush 45

WI:
Kerry 51
Bush 46

MI:
Kerry 51
Bush 47

MN:
Kerry 58
Bush 40

NV:
Kerry 48
Bush 50

NM:
Kerry 50
Bush 48

NC:
Kerry 49
Bush 51

CO:
Kerry 46
Bush 53

These numbers probably have the same gender problems mentioned below. FWIW, I've also seen it reported that Kerry is doing better with Hispanics in FL (particularly Cubans) than Gore did in 2000. Without the Elian Gonzalez wildcard that might well be true.

--Infidel Goat

BIG_DADDY
11-02-2004, 03:04 PM
These numbers probably have the same gender problems mentioned below. FWIW, I've also seen it reported that Kerry is doing better with Hispanics in FL (particularly Cubans) than Gore did in 2000. Without the Elian Gonzalez wildcard that might well be true.

--Infidel Goat

Wonder how ol Elian is doing these days.

Brando
11-02-2004, 03:05 PM
Wonder how ol Elian is doing these days.

I heard that he tripped Castro a couple of weeks back :thumb:

DaKCMan AP
11-02-2004, 03:10 PM
FWIW, I've also seen it reported that Kerry is doing better with Hispanics in FL (particularly Cubans) than Gore did in 2000. Without the Elian Gonzalez wildcard that might well be true.

--Infidel Goat

Less to do with Elian and more to do with the policy of only 1 visit every 3 years.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 03:11 PM
Hearing pretty much what Goat posted, although PA, WI, MI and MN are closer than what Slate has from what I hear (but Bush still trails).

Ugly Duck
11-02-2004, 03:13 PM
On Slate:


So Kerry is leading in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Bush is leading in Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado.

This'll be a freakin slaughter if that holds up.....

Amnorix
11-02-2004, 03:16 PM
So Kerry is leading in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Bush is leading in Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado.

This'll be a freakin slaughter if that holds up.....

Was North Carolina even in play? Even remotely? I hadn't thought so...

It's still ridiculously early, so I wouldn't hold my breath on these early exit poll results, although obviously I'M hoping they hold up... :):p

ENDelt260
11-02-2004, 03:17 PM
All this Bush/Kerry stuff is fine and good... but, I need updates on the So. St. Paul, MN City Council race. C'mon, Planet... hook me up.

BIG_DADDY
11-02-2004, 03:19 PM
So Kerry is leading in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Bush is leading in Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado.

This'll be a freakin slaughter if that holds up.....

Then we can finally have a pussified metro for a Commander and Chief happy, happy, joy joy.

Brando
11-02-2004, 03:24 PM
All this Bush/Kerry stuff is fine and good... but, I need updates on the So. St. Paul, MN City Council race. C'mon, Planet... hook me up.

Some guy that puts slabs of beef in his cocoa is ahead.

the Talking Can
11-02-2004, 03:24 PM
if these early turnout #'s are right, Bush is in big trouble....I think I'm developing an ulcer

ROYC75
11-02-2004, 03:24 PM
Somebody needs to get all the left wing wackos in Ca. and NY to swing over to Bush ! :p

Brando
11-02-2004, 03:25 PM
Somebody needs to get all the left wing wackos in Ca. and NY to swing over to Bush ! :p

I'm one of those wackos from NY :harumph:

Boozer
11-02-2004, 03:28 PM
All this Bush/Kerry stuff is fine and good... but, I need updates on the So. St. Paul, MN City Council race. C'mon, Planet... hook me up.

"Madland in 2004...For a more ruling South Saint Paul."

OmahaChief
11-02-2004, 03:57 PM
I would guess that while most Republicans are working the Dems had a chance to get out and vote while picking up their government checks. :p

Bosko
11-02-2004, 04:02 PM
More democrats are unemployed.
Well, it's 5:00 central. Time for the working people to start showing up at the polls.

BIG_DADDY
11-02-2004, 04:04 PM
More democrats are unemployed.
Well, it's 5:00 central. Time for the working people to start showing up at the polls.

Boy if that ain't the truth.

Calcountry
11-02-2004, 04:10 PM
Boy if that ain't the truth.
I hope they care enough to sweat the lines.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 04:12 PM
if these early turnout #'s are right, Bush is in big trouble....I think I'm developing an ulcer


Hang in there Can...it's almost over... :thumb:

Infidel Goat
11-02-2004, 04:13 PM
More democrats are unemployed.
Well, it's 5:00 central. Time for the working people to start showing up at the polls.

It's also time for college age students to vote.

I just saw footage of UNC Greensboro. HUGE lines. All youth vote except the random octogenarian they let cut in line.

--Infidel Goat

Infidel Goat
11-02-2004, 04:20 PM
http://www.slate.com/id/2109081/

It's not exit poll data. It's turnout data.

Joel Lockhardt is indicating there is higher turnout in democratic areas than republican areas (in most of the swing states)--based upon simple counting of voters who have turned out.

If true, it's better news for dems than the early exit poll data.

--Infidel Goat

Logical
11-02-2004, 04:25 PM
Somebody needs to get all the left wing wackos in Ca. and NY to swing over to Bush ! :pExactly why Giulianni needs to run in the next open Republican year.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 04:25 PM
Wow...that was a turnaround...Drudge has OH tied, Bush way up in NH, Kerry +2 in FL and MI (FWIW, the GOPer I know is convinced that Bush will win FL by at least 2 points based on the demographic internals...but again, couldn't tell you if it is spin or not).

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 04:27 PM
Also, I hear Kerry is trailing in the exit polls in OR! I don't buy it, but that's what the AP polling is showing.

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 04:32 PM
Also, I hear Kerry is trailing in the exit polls in OR! I don't buy it, but that's what the AP polling is showing.


This is one hell of a squeaker! I gotta get my squeaky voice ready!

Gawd, I love it! Elections are as close to sex as I'll ever get!

;)

HolmeZz
11-02-2004, 04:38 PM
Also, I hear Kerry is trailing in the exit polls in OR! I don't buy it, but that's what the AP polling is showing.

Yeah, I don't believe that either. Just like I don't believe that Virginia or North Carolina will be close.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 04:38 PM
This is one hell of a squeaker! I gotta get my squeaky voice ready!

Gawd, I love it! Elections are as close to sex as I'll ever get!

;)

Um, you know that brings up an interesting question that...well, er, um...you know, Hel'n, if...well, er, um...oh nevermind...

ENDelt260
11-02-2004, 04:40 PM
Um, you know that brings up an interesting question that...well, er, um...you know, Hel'n, if...well, er, um...oh nevermind...
Are you trying to ask Helen out on a date?

Don't be shy.

KCN
11-02-2004, 04:40 PM
Um, you know that brings up an interesting question that...well, er, um...you know, Hel'n, if...well, er, um...oh nevermind...

Yeah lets just leave it at that :)

Chief Henry
11-02-2004, 04:40 PM
This is one hell of a squeaker! I gotta get my squeaky voice ready!

Gawd, I love it! Elections are as close to sex as I'll ever get!

;)



I know your just kidding, but why kid about SEX ? :p

KCN
11-02-2004, 04:40 PM
Are you trying to ask Helen out on a date?

Don't be shy.

ROFL

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 04:44 PM
Are you trying to ask Helen out on a date?

Don't be shy.


ROFL ROFL ROFL

No.

I was concerned she might be fantasizing about John Kerry in the buff...it was too much for me to grapple with...

Boozer
11-02-2004, 05:37 PM
Wow...if even half of this holds...
Florida
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Michigan
Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 1

Pennsylvania
Kerry 53
Bush 46

Iowa
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Nader 1

Minnesota
Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 2

New Hampshire
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Nader 1

Colorado
Kerry 49
Bush 50
Nader 1

Arkansas
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1

Missouri
Kerry 47
Bush 52

New York
Kerry 62
Bush 36
Nader 2

Nevada
Kerry 49
Bush 48
Nader 1

New Jersey
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1

West Virginia
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1

Why is Slate running these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 4:20 p.m. PT

Continue Article

Late Afternoon Exit Polls: It's a tight squeeze: In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he's up by three, and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one.

Why is Slate running these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 3:16 p.m. PT

Early Exit: A sqeaker: The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning dexit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 05:40 PM
ROFL ROFL ROFL

No.

I was concerned she might be fantasizing about John Kerry in the buff...it was too much for me to grapple with...


I might be desperate... (yeah, I probably am)...

...but I ain't THAT desperate...

;)