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View Full Version : Which Pollster Was Most Accurate?


RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 12:47 PM
As the results come in I'll update the list below...

<B>Florida:</B>
FOX News | 10/30-31 700 LV 3.0 44 49 1 Kerry +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-30* 1138 LV 4.1 47 50 - Kerry +3
ARG | 10/30-11/1 600 LV 4.0 48 50 1 Kerry +2
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 48 48 - TIE
Insdr Adv | 10/29-31 400 LV 5.0 48 48 1 TIE
SurveyUSA | 10/29-31 742 LV 3.7 49 48 - Bush +1
Rasmussen | 10/25-31 600 LV 4.0 50 47 - Bush +3
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 49 45 - Bush +4
Quinnipiac | 10/27-31 1098 LV 3.0 51 43 1 Bush +8

<B>Ohio:</B>
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-31 1111 LV 4.0 46 50 - Kerry +4
Ohio Poll/UofC | 10/27-31 877LV 3.3 50.1 49.2 - Bush +0.9
SurveyUSA | 10/29-31 816 LV 3.5 49 47 - Bush +2
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 48 46 - Bush +2
FOX News | 10/30-31 700 LV 3.0 50 47 - Bush +3
Clev. Plain Dealer | 10/26-28 1500 LV 2.6 48 45 - Bush +3
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 49 43 - Bush +4
Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31 600 LV 4.0 50 46 - Bush +4

<B>Pennsylvania:</B>
Rasmussen | 10/25-31 600 LV 4.0 47 49 - Kerry +2
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 46 48 - Kerry +2
SurveyUSA | 10/31-11/1 657 LV 3.9 48 49 - Kerry +1
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 46 50 - TIE
Quinnipiac | 10/27-31 909 LV 3.3 47 47 - TIE
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-31 601 LV 4.1 50 46 - Bush +4

<B>Wisconsin:</B>
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 45 51 - Kerry +6
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 46 48 - Kerry +2
ARG | 10/25-10/27 601 LV 4.1 47 48 1 Kerry +1
FOX News | 10/30-31 700 LV 3.0 48 45 1 Bush +3
Badger Poll | 10/23-10/27 545 LV 4.1 48 45 3 Bush +3
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/27-30 1119 LV 4.0 52 44 - Bush +8

<B>Iowa:</B>
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 45 50 - Kerry +5
SurveyUSA | 10/29-11/1 519 LV 4.4 47 50 - Kerry +3
DM Register | 10/25-10/29 806 LV 3.5 45 48 1 Kerry +3
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 49 44 - Bush +5
FOX News | 10/30-31 700 LV 3.0 48 44 1 Bush +4
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/27-30 LV 4.0 48 46 - Bush +2
Research 2000 | 10/25-10/27 600 LV 4.0 49 48 1 Bush +1
ARG | 10/25-10/27 600 LV 4.0 48 47 1 Bush +1

<B>Minnesota:</B>
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-30 1098 LV 3.0 44 52 - Kerry +8
Star-Tribune | 10/26-29 996 LV 3.5 41 49 - Kerry +8
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 45 51 - Kerry +6
Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31 600 LV 4.0 47 48 - Kerry +1
St. PP/Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 48 47 - Bush +1
Humphrey Inst | 10/24-10/27 690 LV 4.1 47 44 5 Bush +3

<B>Michigan:</B>
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 46 52 - Kerry +6
Rasmussen | 10/25-31 600 LV 5.0 46 50 - Kerry +4
Research 2000 | 10/25-27 600 LV 4.0 46 50 1 Kerry +4
Survey USA | 10/28-30 671 LV 3.9 47 50 - Kerry +3
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 45 47 - Kerry +2
Detroit News | 10/26-28 600 LV 4.0 41 43 2 Kerry +2

<B>Missouri:</B>
Research 2000 | 10/22-10/24 800 LV 3.5 48 45 - Bush +3
KC Star | 10/22-26 553 LV 4.1 49 45 - Bush +4
SurveyUSA| 10/29-31 694 LV 3.8 52 47 - Bush +5
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 49 44 - Bush +5

<B>New Mexico:</B>
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 48 51 - Kerry +3
ARG | 10/27-10/30 600 LV 4.0 47 48 1 Kerry +1
Albq Jrnl | 10/26-29 - 3.0 47 44 1 Bush +3
Rasmussen | 10/26 500 LV 4.5 48 44 2 Bush +4
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 49 45 - Bush +4

<B>Nevada:</B>
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 50 45 - Bush +5
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 50 44 - Bush +6
SurveyUSA | 10/30-11/1 636 LV 4.0 53 45 - Bush +8

<B>Colorado:</B>
Survey USA | 10/30-11/1 705 LV 3.8 50 47 - Bush +3
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 600 LV 4.1 49 47 - Kerry +3
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 50 43 1 Bush +7
Rocky Mtn News | 10/25-27 500 LV 4.3 51 42 - Bush +9

<B>New Hampshire</B>
Research 2000 | 10/26-28 600 LV 4.0 46 49 2 Kerry +3
UNH Tracking | 10/29-31 716 LV 3.7 49 50 1 Kerry +1
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 46 47 - Kerry +1
ARG | 10/30-11/1 600 LV 4.0 49 48 1 Bush +1

<B>Maine:</B>
Zogby | 10/21-10/22 402 LV 5.0 39 50 1 Kerry +11
SurveyUSA | 10/28-30 1008 LV 3.2 44 52 - Kerry +8

<B>West Virginia:</B>
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 51 43 - Bush +8
Zogby/WSJ** | 10/25-28 398 LV 4.9 52 43 - Bush +9

<B>Oregon:</B>
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 44 50 - Kerry +6
Oregonian/KATU | 10/25-27 608 LV 3.8 43 49 - Kerry +6
ARG | 10/25-10/27 600 LV 4.0 46 50 - Kerry +4
SurveyUSA | 10/25-10/27 687 LV 3.8 47 50 - Kerry +3

<B>New Jersey:</B>
SurveyUSA | 10/27-29 794 LV 3.5 42 54 - Kerry +12
Quinnipiac | 10/27-31 984 LV 3.1 43 48 2 Kerry +5
Star-Ledger | 10/27-29 740 LV 3.6 41 45 - Kerry +4

<B>Arkansas:</B>
SurveyUSA | 10/31-11/1 550 LV 4.3 51 46 - Bush +5
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 51 43 - Bush +8

<B>Hawaii:</B>
Honolulu Advertiser| 10/13-18 600 LV 4.0 43.3 42.6 - Bush +0.7
SMS Research | 10/17-20 612 LV 4.0 46 45 - Bush +1