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View Full Version : Zogby calls it for Kerry: 311 EVs


the Talking Can
11-02-2004, 04:49 PM
I don't know how they do this, but there it is...


zogby (http://www.zogby.com/)

Bowser
11-02-2004, 04:53 PM
I'll believe it when I see it.

HolmeZz
11-02-2004, 04:53 PM
Wow, I had the same thing when I just filled out my map. I decided to not put a whole lot of stock in the exit polls though, and even gave Florida, Hawaii, New Hampshire and New Mexico to Bush, and Kerry STILL won. At this point it looks like it could be a rough night for George. Should be fun to follow this all night.

listopencil
11-02-2004, 04:56 PM
The only info I'm finding is that the actual results won't be released until at least 5pm Pacific Time. But the Redskin Rule says that Kerry will win.

B2chiefsfan
11-02-2004, 04:57 PM
Where the hell are they getting their info???

beavis
11-02-2004, 04:57 PM
How can he call states that are still red, but "trending" Kerry, for Kerry? (ie OH & FL)

B2chiefsfan
11-02-2004, 04:58 PM
The only info I'm finding is that the actual results won't be released until at least 5pm Pacific Time. But the Redskin Rule says that Kerry will win.


:hmmm:

DaKCMan AP
11-02-2004, 04:59 PM
wow.

listopencil
11-02-2004, 05:01 PM
Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)
2004 Presidential Election
Electoral Votes:Bush213Kerry311Too Close To CallNevada (5)Too Close To CallColorado (9)
<HR>Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2<HR>Here's how we got there...2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:George Bush (Electoral Vote) UT5KS6WY3MS6ID4SC8AK3IN11NE5KY8ND3AL9MT3GA15SD3LA9OK7TX 34John Kerry (Electoral Vote)ME4MD10VT3CT7IL21HI4RI4NY31DE3MA12NJ15DC3CA55Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

2004 Battleground States:
20002004
Our CallBush Electoral VotesKerry Electoral Votes
%Margin%MarginArizona (10)*
Bush + 6.28%Bush 6%10-Arkansas (6)*
Bush + 5.44%Bush 3%6-Colorado (9)
Bush + 8.36%Too Close To Call--Florida (27)
Bush + 0.01%Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry-27Iowa (7)
Gore + 0.31%Kerry 5%-7Michigan (17)
Gore + 5.13%Kerry 6%-17Minnesota (10)
Gore + 2.4%Kerry 6%-10Missouri (11)*
Bush + 3.34%Bush 3%11-Nevada (5)
Bush + 3.55%Too Close To Call--New Hampshire (4) *
Bush + 1.27%Kerry 5%-4New Mexico (5)
Gore + 0.06%Kerry 3%-5North Carolina (15)*
Bush + 12.83%Bush 3%15-Oregon (7)*
Gore + 0.44%Kerry 10%-7Ohio (20)
Bush + 3.51%Bush 2%
Trending Kerry-20Pennsylvania (21)
Gore + 4.17%Trending Kerry-21Tennessee (11)*
Bush + 3.86%Bush 4%11-Virginia (13)*Bush + 7.00%Bush13-Washington (11)*
Gore + 5.58%Kerry 11%-11West Virginia (5)*
Bush + 6.32%Bush 4%5-Wisconsin (10)
Gore + 0.22%Kerry 6%-10Battleground State Totals71139Current Grand Total:213311* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)


(11/1/2004)

HolmeZz
11-02-2004, 05:02 PM
My original prediction was that I thought Bush would win it closely, but if Kerry won it would be by an electoral landslide, which I think it how it'll end up. I don't see Bush winning by a landslide.

BIG_DADDY
11-02-2004, 05:02 PM
Wow, break out a can of sweet corn the bitch is pulling it off.

listopencil
11-02-2004, 05:03 PM
This Zogby stuff is a bunch of shit. They used results from the 2000 election and a phone poll of less than 1000 people. Fake news, yippee!

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 05:15 PM
I'm not questioning Zogby, he could end up being dead on, but I do find it funny that the reportedly best pollster out there waits until the exit polls are rolling in to make his final prediction. ROFL

HolmeZz
11-02-2004, 05:16 PM
I'm not questioning Zogby, he could end up being dead on, but I do find it funny that the reportedly best pollster out there waits until the exit polls are rolling in to make his final prediction. ROFL

Yeah, it's a bit like placing a bet on a football game halfway through the first quarter.

RINGLEADER
11-02-2004, 05:23 PM
Yeah, it's a bit like placing a bet on a football game halfway through the first quarter.

Exactly. :thumb:

KC Jones
11-02-2004, 05:26 PM
You'll have my prediction tomorrow morning!

However it will be only penciled in until I see how the court cases and recounts go.

:D

Infidel Goat
11-02-2004, 05:28 PM
I'm not questioning Zogby, he could end up being dead on, but I do find it funny that the reportedly best pollster out there waits until the exit polls are rolling in to make his final prediction. ROFL

Yeah. He had neither candidate with 270 with Florida as the remaining toss up this afternoon.

And this morning, it was tied with VA and PA left.

He needs to make his final prediction before polls open...

--Infidel Goat

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 05:29 PM
Wow, break out a can of sweet corn the bitch is pulling it off.

Remember, it is still early in the evening...

Trending is fine... but it's the actual votes that count...

If it holds up... well... "Yeah, baby!"

Don't say I didn't tell ya so...

;)

Calcountry
11-02-2004, 05:33 PM
Wow, break out a can of sweet corn the bitch is pulling it off.
ROFL

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 05:34 PM
ROFL

Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY
Wow, break out a can of sweet corn the bitch is pulling it off.


My real name is Teresa Heinz and I approved this message...

BIG_DADDY
11-02-2004, 05:42 PM
Remember, it is still early in the evening...

Trending is fine... but it's the actual votes that count...

If it holds up... well... "Yeah, baby!"

Don't say I didn't tell ya so...

;)

Yea well I ofered all you liberals a chance to take all my money and not one of you had the huevos to step up to the plate. Oh well I better save up and hide my money we may have "I never met a tax I didn't like" Tobiko Balls Kerry as our Commander and Queef.

Bob Dole
11-02-2004, 06:12 PM
We have no exit data and Bush won it last year, but it's trending Kerry.

We have exit data and Bush is winning by 2%, and he won it in 2000...but by golly it's trending Kerry.

Okie dokie.

Taco John
11-02-2004, 06:13 PM
Yea well I ofered all you liberals a chance to take all my money and not one of you had the huevos to step up to the plate. Oh well I better save up and hide my money we may have "I never met a tax I didn't like" Tobiko Balls Kerry as our Commander and Queef.



I wish I'd have known... I called Kerry in a landslide in the other thread, and I'd have been willing to put a side wager on it...

HolmeZz
11-02-2004, 06:16 PM
I would be a bit worried that South Carolina hasn't been put into the Bush column as of yet, if I was a Bush supporter. He'll carry the state, but it really shouldn't be close.

Bob Dole
11-02-2004, 06:19 PM
Anyone else notice that they are already calling Vermont for Kerry and show 0% reporting?

Bob Dole
11-02-2004, 06:20 PM
I would be a bit worried that South Carolina hasn't been put into the Bush column as of yet, if I was a Bush supporter. He'll carry the state, but it really shouldn't be close.

The county numers would indicate that both SC and VA are going to Bush.

Ralphy Boy
11-02-2004, 06:23 PM
We have no exit data and Bush won it last year, but it's trending Kerry.

We have exit data and Bush is winning by 2%, and he won it in 2000...but by golly it's trending Kerry.

Okie dokie.

And they forgot about Poland :p

Even if you give Colorado's 9 votes to Bush along with Nevada's 5, New Hampshire's 4 & Ohio's 20, Bush only gains 38 electoral votes and if as they are projecting Florida's 27 votes go to Kerry, he still wins.

If Florida goes to Bush, he wins, so once again, it will all come down to Florida and a virtual repeat of 2000. :banghead:

HolmeZz
11-02-2004, 06:24 PM
The county numers would indicate that both SC and VA are going to Bush.

You missed my point, which was that neither of those states shouldn't have even be close at all, and the fact that there has yet to be a declared winner can't be a good thing for Bush.

Bob Dole
11-02-2004, 06:25 PM
You missed my point, which was that neither of those states shouldn't have even be close at all, and the fact that there has yet to be a declared winner can't be a good thing for Bush.


You missed Bob Dole's point.

If you take the time to LOOK at the actual numbers reported thus far, you don't need some media outlet to call it for you. :)

HolmeZz
11-02-2004, 06:28 PM
Then maybe I should look at the numbers and call New Hampshire for Bush, seeing as he's winning 61% to 34% with like 1% of the vote in.

Ralphy Boy
11-02-2004, 06:31 PM
Then maybe I should look at the numbers and call New Hampshire for Bush, seeing as he's winning 61% to 34% with like 1% of the vote in.

Considering that Democrats traditionally vote early, yes I think it would be fair to say that those numbers would tend to be a somewhat accurate sampling, depending I guess on the demographics of the counties reporting.

Ralphy Boy
11-02-2004, 06:42 PM
Fox news shows that Bush leads 56% to Kerry's 43% in Florida, if he wins that state, he wins the election, IMO.

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 06:43 PM
Fox news shows that Bush leads 56% to Kerry's 43% in Florida, if he wins that state, he wins the election, IMO.

It is way closer than that in Florida... I don't know what Fox is smoking...

HolmeZz
11-02-2004, 06:45 PM
Fox news shows that Bush leads 56% to Kerry's 43% in Florida, if he wins that state, he wins the election, IMO.

It's very early on, and he hardly wins the election by simply winning Florida. I think most people expected him to carry it. I think the upper midwest is going to end up deciding this election.

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 06:55 PM
It is way closer than that in Florida... I don't know what Fox is smoking...


BTW, FWIW, I think that Fox might be a little more blatant with their numbers in hopes of influencing those who still haven't voted and making an impact on the polls that are still open around the country and in key battleground states...

Just pure speculation on my part...

Patriot 21
11-02-2004, 06:59 PM
BTW, FWIW, I think that Fox might be a little more blatant with their numbers in hopes of influencing those who still haven't voted and making an impact on the polls that are still open around the country and in key battleground states......

Oh the FUGGIN horror of it.........a news outlet trying to influence an election!

:banghead:

KCWolfman
11-02-2004, 07:00 PM
Oh the FUGGIN horror of it.........a news outlet trying to influence an election!

:banghead:
Not FLORIDA!!! NEVUHHHH !!!

Of all states, who could have seen that.

Raiderhader
11-02-2004, 07:02 PM
Zogby is smoking some pretty good shit.

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 07:04 PM
Zogby is smoking some pretty good shit.


Hey, it's election night. Maybe we all should be smokin some good $hit...

;)


This from the girl who never knew what a bong was until it was explained to her after she saw Brenda inhale smoke in a glass tube on Six Feet Under...

:shake:

Raiderhader
11-02-2004, 07:13 PM
Hey, it's election night. Maybe we all should be smokin some good $hit...

;)


This from the girl who never knew what a bong was until it was explained to her after she saw Brenda inhale smoke in a glass tube on Six Feet Under...

:shake:



I'll stick with my Wild Turkey.

KCWolfman
11-02-2004, 07:19 PM
I'll stick with my Wild Turkey.
And Night Train
And Muscatel
And Ol Grandad
And Jim Beam
And Black Label
And ...............

Raiderhader
11-02-2004, 07:21 PM
And Night Train
And Muscatel
And Ol Grandad
And Jim Beam
And Black Label
And ...............



:D Just the Turkey tonight.

Patriot 21
11-02-2004, 07:31 PM
Hey, it's erection night. Maybe we all should be smokin some good $hit...
:shake:

Really? That sounds interesting. ROFL

Hel'n
11-02-2004, 07:44 PM
Really? That sounds interesting. ROFL

Clever...

BIG_DADDY
11-02-2004, 08:45 PM
I wish I'd have known... I called Kerry in a landslide in the other thread, and I'd have been willing to put a side wager on it...

Yea I offer you bets all the time and you turn me down, I would be glad to take some your Taco money.

Bwana
11-02-2004, 11:07 PM
So much for polls.

KCWolfman
11-02-2004, 11:13 PM
Looks like Soggy is wrong about FL


eh, what is 27 EVs?

Ultra Peanut
11-02-2004, 11:14 PM
Good lookin' out Zogz.

Phobia
11-02-2004, 11:21 PM
I just put in a call to my broker. I'm selling all my Zogby. You should, too.

ROYC75
11-02-2004, 11:23 PM
Seems like they got the cart in front of the horse !

listopencil
11-02-2004, 11:40 PM
This Zogby stuff is a bunch of shit. They used results from the 2000 election and a phone poll of less than 1000 people. Fake news, yippee!

I agree with what listopencil posted 6.5 hours ago.

KCWolfman
11-02-2004, 11:45 PM
Soggy missed Ohio too, Talking Can.


Say it with me, four more years!!!!

Mr. Kotter
11-03-2004, 12:09 PM
ZOGBY is toast....

ROFL

Stinger
11-03-2004, 12:28 PM
ZOGBY is toast....

ROFL

as posted on nother thread:

Speaking of which from his website ( http://zogby.com/ )

Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:


“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.

“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side."