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Rausch
11-26-2004, 12:22 PM
My friend in vegas just bet $50 and I'm wondering what the opinins are on here about it.

He bet a 3 game parlay: Eagles -7.5 VS Giants, Packers -7(MNF) VS Rams, Pats -7 VS Ravens...bet $50 at 6-1 odds...

Also bet $50 on the Eagles.

If you were a betting man these choices look good to you?

Phobia
11-26-2004, 12:24 PM
It looks too good. Normally, I'd take those odds. Normally I'd put a lot on those odds. Normally I'd lose my ass on those odds.

Rausch
11-26-2004, 12:25 PM
It looks too good. Normally, I'd take those odds. Normally I'd put a lot on those odds. Normally I'd lose my ass on those odds.

Normally, you do pretty well on the gambling thread...

Phobia
11-26-2004, 12:30 PM
Normally, you do pretty well on the gambling thread...

Not in a while. Which is why I'm saying this. Every year, there's a bunch of sure things on a week in the middle of the season. Every year, I bet large. Every year I lose my ass. Those 3 games scare me this week. If he were hedging, I'd be all over it. But in a parlay? I don't think he's gonna hit on this one.

jspchief
11-26-2004, 12:42 PM
Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.

Phobia
11-26-2004, 12:48 PM
Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.

Truth.

Calcountry
11-26-2004, 12:50 PM
My friend in vegas just bet $50 and I'm wondering what the opinins are on here about it.

He bet a 3 game parlay: Eagles -7.5 VS Giants, Packers -7(MNF) VS Rams, Pats -7 VS Ravens...bet $50 at 6-1 odds...

Also bet $50 on the Eagles.

If you were a betting man these choices look good to you?
I would say that it is a "good" bet.

Whether it is a "winning" bet or not is yet to be seen. lmao.

Rausch
11-26-2004, 02:10 PM
Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.

Eli is starting, and even though he walks on water, he's still a rookie. While the Iggles defense is average their coordinator is damned good and likely able to 0WN a rookie QB.

Plus the Giants defense is without Stray-hand and not all that impressive.

cdcox
11-26-2004, 02:35 PM
Parlays seem to be a bad bet. For arguement's sake, let's say the odds being on the winning side of any individual game are 50/50.

So his odds of winning the parlay are (0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.125 or 1 in 8. The payout is 1 in 6. After figuring for the 10% vig, his expected return is $41.25 on the $50 bet.

Had he bet equally on the three games independently without the parlay, his expected return would be $47.50 on a $50 bet.

Over the long term, he is essentially giving the bookie $6.25 everytime he makes that bet.

Rausch
11-26-2004, 02:40 PM
Parlays seem to be a bad bet. For arguement's sake, let's say the odds being on the winning side of any individual game are 50/50.

So his odds of winning the parlay are (0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.125 or 1 in 8. The payout is 1 in 6. After figuring for the 10% vig, his expected return is $41.25 on the $50 bet.

He's paying $1.50 to bet, twice. So that's $3.00 for two $50 bets.

And of course your odds are less on a parlay than normal bet, but the question was do you think these teams are a good bet this week in a parlay.

Edit: so this thread is more of a football question than a betting question. Will the Pack beat the Lambs by 8?...etc..

jspchief
11-26-2004, 02:50 PM
No juice on parlays.

Another way of looking at is, if I have 3 games that I love, I can get 6 to 1 instead of 1 to 1 times three. The logic is that you feel you have better than a coin flip chance of winning all three games. Higher risk, but higher reward.

Rausch
11-26-2004, 02:55 PM
No juice on parlays.

Another way of looking at is, if I have 3 games that I love, I can get 6 to 1 instead of 1 to 1 times three. The logic is that you feel you have better than a coin flip chance of winning all three games. Higher risk, but higher reward.

Exactly.

And he won $50 last week, so he's really betting on the parlay with their money, not his.

The 2nd $50 is his loss if the Iggles don't come through...

Skip Towne
11-26-2004, 03:06 PM
Eight points is a LOT in pro football. Beating those odds three times is HUGE.

jspchief
11-26-2004, 03:09 PM
Eight points is a LOT in pro football. Beating those odds three times is HUGE.

Agreed. Another reason I don't like it. I'd be more inclined to bet the opposite based solely on trends.

Rausch
11-26-2004, 03:50 PM
Agreed. Another reason I don't like it. I'd be more inclined to bet the opposite based solely on trends.

I don't like the idea of taking 3 teams that are all giving up pts. That's for sure.
It's bad enough they all have to win, but to all win by 8 is rough. If I had to pick three games it would probably be these three. Maybe the Texans game, I think he said they were 1 pt favorites at home.

He asked about the Chiefs (2 pt favorites) but I told him not to touch that one...

FloridaChief
11-26-2004, 04:00 PM
No juice on parlays.

Another way of looking at is, if I have 3 games that I love, I can get 6 to 1 instead of 1 to 1 times three. The logic is that you feel you have better than a coin flip chance of winning all three games. Higher risk, but higher reward.

Agree. I'm not much of a gambler myself, but word on the street is that NFL parlay bets are for suckers...

Rausch
11-26-2004, 04:11 PM
Agree. I'm not much of a gambler myself, but word on the street is that NFL parlay bets are for suckers...

Football's the only game I bet on, and I've never bet a parlay. I've seen people win some good $$$ but more often I've seen someone pulling their hair out because (insert lock here) only won by 2 instead of 4...

cdcox
11-26-2004, 04:14 PM
With a cost of $1.50 per bet, the single bets still have the higher expected return on even odds on the line. If you can be at least 54% sure on each side of the odds, then the parlay becomes the better bet. If you can do that well consistently, quit your day job and gamble for a living.

WRT the particular lines he took, no I don't like giving so many points in 3 different games. Especially with one of the teams on the road.

Rausch
11-26-2004, 04:24 PM
With a cost of $1.50 per bet, the single bets still have the higher expected return on even odds on the line. If you can be at least 54% sure on each side of the odds, then the parlay becomes the better bet. If you can do that well consistently, quit your day job and gamble for a living.


What really pisses me off is you know there's someone in Vegas doing just that. And winning... :mad:

cdcox
11-26-2004, 04:26 PM
What really pisses me off is you know there's someone in Vegas doing just that. And winning... :mad:

Yep. I did real well in the simulated gambling thread last year and thought I might be on to something. This year has disabused me of that notion.

Rausch
11-26-2004, 04:27 PM
Yep. I did real well in the simulated gambling thread last year and thought I might be on to something. This year has disabused me of that notion.

Well, the average Joe isn't going to be doing it, but there are "pro gamblers" that make a life out of it. Know the casinos, odds, sports, etc...

jspchief
11-26-2004, 04:48 PM
Parlays are sucker bets, but it all relates to how you approach your gambling.
I like to bet big on games that I really like. If I have three, I usually put them in a parlay as well as single bets. If I can justify risking $300 to win $270, why wouldn't I justify another $45 to win another $270 on the exact same games? I've made a heck of a lot better profit margin on parlays than I have singles.

Of course, I also bet a ten team parlay every week. It's my "lottery ticket". I put $10 on ten teams, and it usually pays in the neighborhood of $7000. I've already won one. If I do the same thing for the rest of my life, I'll still come out ahead. I've also had 9 of 10 going into monday night and hedged my bet with $2000 on the other team. I ended up winning the $2000 (actually $1790 after juice and the other ten I lost).

tk13
11-27-2004, 02:12 PM
Personally I think the Pats/Ravens might be the one you miss out on... that game scares me, especially with Boller playing pretty well in recent weeks. The Boston Sports Guy even agrees with me, and when he's doing that on his own team, that's not a good sign... :)

Ravens (+7) over PATRIOTS
Why does this game scare the living crap out of me? Is it because there are only like three other legitimate upset possibilities on the entire slate? Because the Pats played on Monday night? Because Jamal Lewis has been suspiciously quiet for about six weeks? Because the Pats never seem to beat anyone by more than a touchdown? Because Trent Green threw for 377 yards on Monday despite the fact that his WRs dropped another 150 yards in passes? Because the Pats secondary is so banged up right now, Troy Brown looks like the '97 version of Deion Sanders compared to everyone else out there? Ugh. If you gave me "16-14, Pats" right now, I'd take it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/041124

jspchief
11-27-2004, 02:15 PM
Personally I think the Pats/Ravens might be the one you miss out on... that game scares me, especially with Boller playing pretty well in recent weeks. The Boston Sports Guy even agrees with me, and when he's doing that on his own team, that's not a good sign... :)



http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/041124

Jamal Lewis is out, otherwise I might agree.

Rausch
11-28-2004, 06:27 PM
Someone got lucky today...

Saulbadguy
11-28-2004, 07:06 PM
Someone got lucky today...
Packers vs rams hasn't happened yet.

Rausch
11-28-2004, 07:08 PM
Packers vs rams hasn't happened yet.

Today, he was lucky. Tommorow, who knows.

He's a niners fan, so he's due something I suppose... :)

Nzoner
11-28-2004, 09:02 PM
I'm assuming your buddy has now flip-flopped on tomorrow night to gurantee himself a win.

Rausch
11-28-2004, 09:03 PM
I'm assuming your buddy has now flip-flopped on tomorrow night to gurantee himself a win. :spock:

Nzoner
11-28-2004, 09:17 PM
heh,I've been up too long,I'm now in the dipshit zone.

Rausch
11-29-2004, 08:21 PM
Packers vs rams hasn't happened yet.

He he he... :)

Rausch
11-29-2004, 10:10 PM
He he he... :)

Yay...win for me. My buddy just called and decided to split the winnings since I convinced him to take the eagles and Packers... :)

Coach
11-29-2004, 10:13 PM
Yay...win for me. My buddy just called and decided to split the winnings since I convinced him to take the eagles and Packers... :)

How much you gettin?

Rausch
11-29-2004, 10:14 PM
How much you gettin?
He said he thought it came to $210...

Which of course I'll use to bet next weekend... :)

Coach
11-29-2004, 10:19 PM
He said he thought it came to $210...

Which of course I'll use to bet next weekend... :)

Not bad. Good luck with the earnings.

Rausch
11-29-2004, 10:21 PM
Not bad. Good luck with the earnings.

Yeah, there's a planeteer I need to share some of that with...

tk13
11-29-2004, 10:25 PM
Yeah, there's a planeteer I need to share some of that with...
Yeah, thanks man, I'm sure you're talking about me, right? I could put that to good use. :)

o:-)