PDA

View Full Version : The practical impacts of draft position in the first round.


Rain Man
12-06-2004, 12:52 AM
I took a look at the ten drafts from 1990 through 1999, and classified players as either world-beaters, solid pros, disappointing pros, or busts. (I stopped at 1999 because that gives us at least five years of experience to evaluate each player.)

I came up with this matrix. The total points reflects 2 points for a world beater, 1 point for a solid pro, 0 points for a disappointing pro, and -1 points for a bust.



Position in Draft World Beaters Solid Pros Disappointing Pros Busts Points
1 3 3 1 3 6
2 3 1 1 5 2
3 3 2 2 3 5
4 4 2 4 0 10
5 2 2 2 4 2
6 2 5 0 3 6
7 2 4 2 2 6
8 1 5 3 1 6
9 2 4 4 0 8
10 3 5 2 0 11
11 1 4 3 2 4
12 2 5 1 2 7
13 1 6 0 3 5
14 1 4 2 3 3
15 0 7 1 2 5
16 2 4 1 3 5



A quick trend line shows no average difference in drafting round, since you lose only .0014 points for each draft pick you drop. If we increase the value of a world beater to 2 points, the difference becomes more significant - 0.15 points lost per draft number you drop.

Offhand, this tells me that the draft order in the top half of the first round doesn't really impact one's ability to find a solid pro, but it has some impact on the ability to find a world beater.

Here are the draft lists if you're interested.



1 1990 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois
1 1991 Russell Maryland Cowboys DT Miami (FL)
1 1992 Steve Emtman Colts DT Washington
1 1993 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State
1 1994 Dan Wilkinson Bengals DT Ohio State
1 1995 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State
1 1996 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC
1 1997 Orlando Pace Rams OT Ohio State
1 1998 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee
1 1999 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky

2 1990 Blair Thomas Jets RB Penn State
2 1991 Eric Turner Browns DB UCLA
2 1992 Quentin Coryatt Colts LB Texas A&M
2 1993 Rick Mirer Seahawks QB Notre Dame
2 1994 Marshall Faulk Colts RB San Diego State
2 1995 Tony Boselli Jaguars OT USC
2 1996 Kevin Hardy Jaguars LB Illinois
2 1997 Darrell Russell Raiders DT USC
2 1998 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State
2 1999 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse

3 1990 Cortez Kennedy Seahawks DT Miami (FL)
3 1991 Bruce Pickens Falcons DB Nebraska
3 1992 Sean Gilbert Rams DT Pittsburgh
3 1993 Garrison Hearst Cardinals RB Georgia
3 1994 Heath Shuler Redskins QB Tennessee
3 1995 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State
3 1996 Simeon Rice Cardinals DE Illinois
3 1997 Shawn Springs Seahawks DB Ohio State
3 1998 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State
3 1999 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon

4 1990 Keith McCants Buccaneers LB Alabama
4 1991 Mike Croel Broncos LB Nebraska
4 1992 Desmond Howard Redskins WR Michigan
4 1993 Marvin Jones Jets LB Florida State
4 1994 Willie McGinest Patriots DE USC
4 1995 Michael Westbrook Redskins WR Colorado
4 1996 Jonathan Ogden Ravens OT UCLA
4 1997 Peter Boulware Ravens DE Florida State
4 1998 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan
4 1999 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL)

5 1990 Junior Seau Chargers LB USC
5 1991 Todd Lyght Rams DB Notre Dame
5 1992 Terrell Buckley Packers DB Florida State
5 1993 John Copeland Bengals DE Alabama
5 1994 Trev Alberts Colts LB Nebraska
5 1995 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State
5 1996 Cedric Jones Giants DE Oklahoma
5 1997 Bryant Westbrook Lions DB Texas
5 1998 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State
5 1999 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas

6 1990 Mark Carrier Bears DB USC
6 1991 Eric Swann Cardinals DE None
6 1992 David Klingler Bengals QB Houston
6 1993 Eric Curry Buccaneers DE Alabama
6 1994 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers QB Fresno State
6 1995 Kevin Carter Rams DE Florida
6 1996 Lawrence Phillips Rams RB Nebraska
6 1997 Walter Jones Seahawks OT Florida State
6 1998 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska
6 1999 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State

7 1990 Andre Ware Lions QB Houston
7 1991 Charles McRae Buccaneers OT Tennessee
7 1992 Troy Vincent Dolphins DB Wisconsin
7 1993 Curtis Conway Bears WR USC
7 1994 Bryant Young 49ers DT Notre Dame
7 1995 Mike Mamula Eagles DE Boston College
7 1996 Terry Glenn Patriots WR Ohio State
7 1997 Ike Hilliard Giants WR Florida
7 1998 Kyle Turley Saints OT San Diego State
7 1999 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia

8 1990 Chris Singleton Patriots LB Arizona
8 1991 Antone Davis Eagles OT Tennessee
8 1992 Bob Whitfield Falcons OT Stanford
8 1993 William Roaf Saints OT Louisiana Tech
8 1994 Sam Adams Seahawks DT Texas A&M
8 1995 Joey Galloway Seahawks WR Ohio State
8 1996 Tim Biakabutuka Panthers RB Michigan
8 1997 James Farrior Jets LB Virginia
8 1998 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina
8 1999 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State

9 1990 Richmond Webb Dolphins OT Texas A&M
9 1991 Stanley Richard Chargers DB Texas
9 1992 Tommy Vardell Browns RB Stanford
9 1993 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons OT Washington
9 1994 Antonio Langham Browns DB Alabama
9 1995 Kyle Brady Jets TE Penn State
9 1996 Rickey Dudley Raiders TE Ohio State
9 1997 Tom Knight Cardinals DB Iowa
9 1998 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida
9 1999 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC

10 1990 Ray Agnew Patriots DE North Carolina State
10 1991 Herman Moore Lions WR Virginia
10 1992 Ray Roberts Seahawks OT Virginia
10 1993 Jerome Bettis Rams RB Notre Dame
10 1994 Jamir Miller Cardinals LB UCLA
10 1995 J.J. Stokes 49ers WR UCLA
10 1996 Willie Anderson Bengals OT Auburn
10 1997 Chris Naeole Saints OG Colorado
10 1998 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL)
10 1999 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona

11 1990 Anthony Smith Raiders DE Arizona
11 1991 Pat Harlow Patriots OT USC
11 1992 Leon Searcy Steelers OT Miami (FL)
11 1993 Dan Williams Broncos DE Toledo
11 1994 John Thierry Bears DE Alcorn State
11 1995 Derrick Alexander Vikings DE Florida State
11 1996 Alex Molden Saints DB Oregon
11 1997 Michael Booker Falcons DB Nebraska
11 1998 Tra Thomas Eagles OT Florida State
11 1999 Daunte Culpepper Vikings QB Central Florida

12 1990 James Francis Bengals LB Baylor
12 1991 Alvin Harper Cowboys WR Tennessee
12 1992 Marco Coleman Dolphins DE Georgia Tech
12 1993 Patrick Bates Raiders DB Texas A&M
12 1994 Aaron Glenn Jets DB Texas A&M
12 1995 Warren Sapp Buccaneers DT Miami (FL)
12 1996 Regan Upshaw Buccaneers DE California
12 1997 Warrick Dunn Buccaneers RB Florida State
12 1998 Keith Brooking Falcons LB Georgia Tech
12 1999 Cade McNown Bears QB UCLA

13 1990 Percy Snow Chiefs LB Michigan State
13 1991 Mike Pritchard Falcons WR Colorado
13 1992 Eugene Chung Patriots OT Virginia Tech
13 1993 Brad Hopkins Oilers OT Illinois
13 1994 Joe Johnson Saints DE Louisville
13 1995 Mark Fields Saints LB Washington State
13 1996 Walt Harris Bears DB Mississippi State
13 1997 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs TE California
13 1998 Takeo Spikes Bengals LB Auburn
13 1999 Troy Edwards Steelers WR Louisiana Tech

14 1990 Renaldo Turnbull Saints DE West Virginia
14 1991 Leonard Russell Patriots RB Arizona State
14 1992 Derek Brown Giants TE Notre Dame
14 1993 Steve Everitt Browns C Michigan
14 1994 Bernard Williams Eagles OT Georgia
14 1995 Reuben Brown Bills OG Pittsburgh
14 1996 Eddie George Oilers RB Ohio State
14 1997 Reinard Wilson Bengals DE Florida State
14 1998 Jason Peter Panthers DT Nebraska
14 1999 John Tait Chiefs OT BYU

15 1990 Lamar Lathon Oilers LB Houston
15 1991 Huey Richardson Steelers LB Florida
15 1992 Johnny Mitchell Jets TE Nebraska
15 1993 Wayne Simmons Packers LB Clemson
15 1994 Wayne Gandy Rams OT Auburn
15 1995 Ellis Johnson Colts DT Florida
15 1996 John Mobley Broncos LB Kutztown (PA)
15 1997 Yatil Green Dolphins WR Miami (FL)
15 1998 Anthony Simmons Seahawks LB Clemson
15 1999 Anthony McFarland Buccaneers DT LSU

16 1990 James Williams Bills DB Fresno State
16 1991 Dan McGwire Seahawks QB San Diego State
16 1992 Chester McGlockton Raiders DT Clemson
16 1993 Sean Dawkins Colts WR California
16 1994 Aaron Taylor Packers OT Notre Dame
16 1995 Hugh Douglas Jets DE Central State (OH)
16 1996 Duane Clemons Vikings DE California
16 1997 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers WR Florida
16 1998 Kevin Dyson Oilers WR Utah
16 1999 Jevon Kearse Oilers LB Florida

Valiant
12-06-2004, 01:13 AM
Now just use the Chiefs ability of top ten picks compared to the other picks and you get a different story...(1 point for probowler, .5 pt for average, no points for bust...)

DT
Neil Smith
Ryan Sims, two all pros and one average player...

2.5 out of three.. for a 83% we will get a great player from previous draft..

compared to
slymo bust
tait average
victor riley bust
Tony G all star
Woods average
jenkins bust
hill bust
dale carter all star
harvey williams bust
percy snow bust

3 out of 10.. Got as many playmakers in 10 picks as we did with our 3 choices fromthe 10 ten...



hmm statistics even show we have a better chance at drafting playmakers with better picks...

the Talking Can
12-06-2004, 08:02 AM
that's a lot of work


I eat Cheese.

CosmicPal
12-06-2004, 08:26 AM
slymo bust

He's an unfortunate bust- the guy looked outstanding before his persistent injuries. He did have the makings of a star WR- his injuries were rather unfortunate, and I really felt bad for him for he had a promising career.

tait average

He's better than average- I'd rather have Tait than Welbourne.

Woods average

Not sure what happened to Woods this year, but he WAS a Pro Bowl player on a crappy D last year. His previous years were also better than average....Pro Bowl players are not "average"

harvey williams bust

He did have a couple of 100 yd games on a team that was a RB by committee. I wouldn't call him a bust, but expectations of him were high. Had he not been on a team filled with RB's like we had then- he may have panned out better.



[/QUOTE]

wutamess
12-06-2004, 09:21 AM
Now just use the Chiefs ability of top ten picks compared to the other picks and you get a different story...(1 point for probowler, .5 pt for average, no points for bust...)

DT
Neil Smith
Ryan Sims, two all pros and one average player...

2.5 out of three.. for a 83% we will get a great player from previous draft..

compared to
slymo bust
tait average
victor riley bust
Tony G all star
Woods average
jenkins bust
hill bust
dale carter all star
harvey williams bust
percy snow bust

3 out of 10.. Got as many playmakers in 10 picks as we did with our 3 choices fromthe 10 ten...



hmm statistics even show we have a better chance at drafting playmakers with better picks...


Tait & Riley will start for any of the 32 teams. Hardly a bust.
Also, Slymo is often injured so he can't be considered a bust if he's never hardly played. Same for Woods... Wasn't he a probowler at some point?

I think your judgement is a little biased.

~Need to calibrate your ratings scale.