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Mr. Laz
12-09-2004, 09:41 PM
MARVIN'S DEAL NOT QUITE SO MARVELOUS

While the mainstream media continues to parrot (to the delight of agent Tom Condon) the numbers that Marvin Harrison will receive from the Colts -- $66 million over six years! $23 million in guaranteed money!! -- a league source has given us the real skinny on Marvin's not-so-marvelous deal.

For starters, Harrison's deal contains a paltry (in comparison to the reports) signing bonus of $6 million.

So where's the other $17 million in guaranteed money? Um, there isn't any -- unless Harrison suffers a career-ending injury between now and the dates on which two obscenely large roster bonuses come due.

Specifically, the Colts owe Harrison a roster bonus of $7 million on the second day of the 2005 league year, and a whopping $10 million on the second day of the 2006 league year. The Colts have the right to guarantee both of these roster boni, which would spread the cap hit over the remainder of the deal.

As for salaries, Harrison will finish 2004 at the prorated rate of $4.559765 million, roughly a million less than his prior rate of $5.56 million salary under his prior contract. But since he's already been paid 13 of 17 weeks at the higher rate, the real reduction in his salary is only 4/17th of the gross difference, or $235,349.

In 2005, Harrison's total salary will be only (only?) $1 million.

In 2006, his base salary will be only (only?) $2 million.

In 2007, the base salary moves to $4 million. In 2008, it goes to $7.6 million. In 2009, it goes to $9 million. In 2010, $10 million. In 2011, $11.4 million.

So what does it all mean? In our view, it's a two-year (i.e., 2004 and 2005) deal that will earn Harrison a total of $14.75 million in new money.

The question then will become whether the Colts pick up a $10 million roster bonus in 2006 (unlikely), guarantee the bonus and spread it over the remaining life of the deal (more likely), renegotiate the contract (most likely), or part ways with Harrison (not very likely, but hardly out of the question).

The cap hit, if the Colts decide to part ways with Harrison after 2005, will be manageable. The signing bonus will trigger a $4 million hit. If the Colts decide to guarantee the 2005 roster bonus, the total cap hit resulting from a release after the 2005 season will climb to $10 million.

The bottom line is that the guaranteed money isn't $23 million -- it's more properly characterized as $14.75 million, counting his paragraph 5 salary in 2004 and 2005, since the 2005 salary will be vested on the first Sunday of the regular season and since the Colts definitely will not release Harrison before paying his $7 million roster bonus in March 2005.

Our guess is that, after 2005, the Colts will look at Harrison's total production, check the market, and decide whether to guarantee the $10 million (reducing his 2005 cap number considerable), offer him a new deal with a lower signing bonus and smaller annual salaries, or thank Harrison for a decade of loyal service, and move on.

The one sure thing is that there's no way this deal will still be in effect in 2008, at which time Harrison's salary will be $7.6 million -- and Harrison will be 36.

Thus, the total money that he'll earn, including the $10 million roster bonus due in 2006 and his $4.6 million salary in 2007, is more like $30.75 million over 3.25 years.

Not chump change, by any means. But hardly the windfall that's been portrayed to date.

tk13
12-09-2004, 09:45 PM
John Clayton reported this yesterday, but most media outlets saw the 22 million and just ran with it...

morphius
12-09-2004, 10:14 PM
Thats what normally happens, the media feels the need to be over dramatic instead of accurate.

jAZ
12-09-2004, 11:32 PM
Why is this news? Everything reported in this article applies to just about every big money deal signed in the NFL.

1) Total contract number is basically bogus... check
2) Full contract terms will never be met... check
3) Renegotiation is fully expected... check

What's there to see here exactly?

morphius
12-09-2004, 11:35 PM
Why is this news? Everything reported in this article applies to just about every big money deal signed in the NFL.

1) Total contract number is basically bogus... check
2) Full contract terms will never be met... check
3) Renegotiation is fully expected... check

What's there to see here exactly?
Mostly to clarify the bonus money. Normally when the bonus is reported it is the up front bonus, not the insane $22 bonus money.

philfree
12-10-2004, 02:20 AM
I've asked this before and obviously the brain thrust here doesn't know. How do agents get paid? Do they get a percentage of the total amount of the contracts their clients sign? Or do they get paid a percentage of what their clients actually get paid? IMO the big numbers are a result of agents manipulating the market. If not then why would all these contracts be written with tierd bonuses and monies that will never be paid? What's sad is the players listen to these jerks :shake: If anyone has any facts in regards to this I would love to see them. I like facts.


PhilFree :arrow:

Miles
12-10-2004, 02:30 AM
I've asked this before and obviously the brain thrust here doesn't know. How do agents get paid? Do they get a percentage of the total amount of the contracts their clients sign? Or do they get paid a percentage of what their clients actually get paid? IMO the big numbers are a result of agents manipulating the market. If not then why would all these contracts be written with tierd bonuses and monies that will never be paid? What's sad is the players listen to these jerks :shake: If anyone has any facts in regards to this I would love to see them. I like facts.


PhilFree :arrow:

Interesting question. I dont have a real aswer but i would imagine its usually based on a percentage the player actually gets paid rather than the entire contract figure since the contracts are not guaranteed. Thus big bonuses work in their favor just like they do the players.

As far as i know they can bargain for whatever payment they want but the players probably wont agree to something that causes they to pay too much.

philfree
12-10-2004, 02:43 AM
Thus big bonuses work in their favor just like the do the players.

A tierd bonus isn't guaranteed though unless that player stays on the roster till a certain date. Yeah they get part up front but with the example of Harrisons contract if he gets injured before the second part of his bonus kicks in and he can't play then there's a good chance he'll never see that money. With that in mind why do agents put their clients through such pain stacking negotiations when there is a good chance that the contract won't pay out in the long run? My only conclusion is because they(the agents) get paid more.


PhilFree :arrow:

Miles
12-10-2004, 02:50 AM
A tierd bonus isn't guaranteed though unless that player stays on the roster till a certain date. Yeah they get part up front but with the example of Harrisons contract if he gets injured before the second part of his bonus kicks in and he can't play then there's a good chance he'll never see that money. With that in mind why do agents put their clients through such pain stacking negotiations when there is a good chance that the contract won't pay out in the long run? My only conclusion is because they(the agents) get paid more.


PhilFree :arrow:

Again im just speculating, but i think the primary reason for the complex structure of the salaries is mostly due to fiting them under the salary cap. How the agents are paid depends on their agreement with the individual players. Just based on economics i figure that the last thing an agent would want is a rep of taking advantage of his clients.

If anything aggressive agents are responsible for geting higher salaries for themselves and the players which works out in the best interst of both of em.

philfree
12-10-2004, 03:26 AM
If anything aggressive agents are responsible for geting higher salaries for themselves and the players which works out in the best interst of both of em.

That would make sense but the big money is made off of the signing bonuses. And again I'll use Harrison's contract as an example. The intial report is Harrison got $22mil in signing bonus but in reality he only got $6mil(or gets) this year. Before Harrison recieves the rest of the bonus he could be injured or even deemed not worthy of the rest of the bonus and be released. The the only real guaranteed money is the $6mil and the rest is monopoly money. I can't imagine that a player would come up with this structure on his own. The only logical conclusion for me(and I admit that I don't have all the facts) is that the agents are bilking the situation for their own profit. Again I would like to know the facts on this stuff............well if for no other reason just to know. It baffles me...........


PhilFree :arrow:

tk13
12-10-2004, 03:38 AM
I think it could be simply to help Indy manage the cap better so they can re-sign guys...

philfree
12-10-2004, 03:47 AM
I think it could be simply to help Indy manage the cap better so they can re-sign guys...

If they don't win it all this year or next they are screwed. Of course that's when we'll start hearing about the LA Colts.

PhilFree :arrow:

tk13
12-10-2004, 03:57 AM
If they don't win it all this year or next they are screwed. Of course that's when we'll start hearing about the LA Colts.

PhilFree :arrow:
The mayor of Indy is supposed to present a plan in the next couple weeks for a $750 million stadium project.... so they might be alright in Indy. Supposedly though, Harrison's contract is set up to provide cap relief in the future....

philfree
12-10-2004, 04:10 AM
The mayor of Indy is supposed to present a plan in the next couple weeks for a $750 million stadium project.... so they might be alright in Indy. Supposedly though, Harrison's contract is set up to provide cap relief in the future....

For Colt Fans I hope it works out that way but that's not really my point about the contracts that are signed. There is so much termoil surrounding contract talks and then players sign contracts with big numbers on the surface that will never be paid. If I was a player I don't think I'd sign a deal with a bunch of funny money in it. The only expination I can find is the agents are getting percentages of the unpaid balance. If not then why do what they do? What's the rub?


PhilFree :arrow:

Rausch
12-10-2004, 05:06 AM
Once again, I'd just litke to take this opportunity to tell Laz to bite my hairy azz...