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View Full Version : Current Draft order and our possible drafting range


Mr. Laz
12-28-2004, 03:42 PM
apparently depending on what happens in the last week of the season we can pick as high as 14th or as low as 22nd.

December 28

Selection order if the 2005 draft were held today; opponents'
combined W-L records based on all 16 opponents

x indicates tie to be decided by coin flip
Opps'
# Team W-L W-L%
1 San Francisco 2-13 .483
2 Cleveland 3-12 .588
3 Tennessee 4-11 .521
4 Miami 4-11 .546
5 Arizona 5-10 .463
6 Chicago 5-10 .471
7 Tampa Bay 5-10 .475
8 Washington 5-10 .479
9 San Diego 5-10 .517 (from New York Giants**)
10 Oakland 5-10 .575
11 Detroit 6-9 .500
12 Dallas 6-9 .504
13 New Orleans 7-8 .475
14 St. Louis 7-8 .492
15 Houston 7-8 .504
16 Carolina 7-8 .508
17 Cincinnati 7-8 .533
18 Kansas City 7-8 .550
19 Minnesota 8-7 .479
20 Jacksonville8-7 .538
21 Baltimore 8-7 .550
22 Seattle 8-7 .450
23 Green Bay 9-6 .467
24 Denver 9-6 .492
25 Dallas 9-6 .504 (from Buffalo*)
26 New York Jet 10-5 .517
27 Atlanta 11-4 .429
28 San Diego 11-4 .483
29 Indianapolis 12-3 .496
30 New England 13-2 .496
31 Philadelphia 13-2 .442
32 Pittsburgh 14-1 .475

* Buffalo's 1st pick would be #56
** NY Giants 1st pick would be #40


if we lose we move up 1 slot for every other 7-8 team the wins.

our Drafting Range depending on who wins and loses is in red

we lose the tie breaker with every team but Baltimore.... next tie breaker is coin flip i believe.




Games that impact our draft position

WEEK 17
NY Jets at St. Louis 1:00 PM
New Orleans at Carolina 1:00 PM (doesnt matter, both count)
Cleveland at Houston 1:00 PM
Cincinnati at Philadelphia 1:00 PM
Jacksonville at Oakland 4:15 PM
Miami at Baltimore 1:00 PM
Minnesota at Washington 1:00 PM
Atlanta at Seattle 4:00 PM

Teams in blue might help us get a better draft pick if they win.

NaptownChief
12-28-2004, 03:57 PM
If New Orleans won and we lost that would impact it wouldn't it? Am I drunk?

Mr. Laz
12-28-2004, 04:00 PM
If New Orleans won and we lost that would impact it wouldn't it? Am I drunk?

new orleans plays another team(carolina) who is also 7-8 ... we lose the tiebreaker to both so they cancel each other out so we can't get the 13th pick.

NaptownChief
12-28-2004, 04:03 PM
new orleans plays another team(carolina) who is also 7-8 ... we lose the tiebreaker to both so they cancel each other out so we can't get the 13th pick.


Gottcha...

Logical
12-28-2004, 04:08 PM
new orleans plays another team(carolina) who is also 7-8 ... we lose the tiebreaker to both so they cancel each other out so we can't get the 13th pick.

Actually in a miracle scenario they could tie which if we would lose would have us drafting before both of them.

Bowser
12-28-2004, 04:08 PM
How much you want to bet that we'll draft 19th, some player who could have a positive impact on the 2005 season will miraculously fall to our spot, and we'll trade down. :shake:

*edit*
And we won't take said player because he is not a "profile" guy.

Mr. Laz
12-28-2004, 04:12 PM
Actually in a miracle scenario they could tie which if we would lose would have us drafting before both of them.
bastige http://members.cox.net/waterfitz1/motz2.gif






ROFL

ChiefsFire
12-28-2004, 04:57 PM
How much you want to bet that we'll draft 19th, some player who could have a positive impact on the 2005 season will miraculously fall to our spot, and we'll trade down. :shake:

*edit*
And we won't take said player because he is not a "profile" guy.



zippit

bricks
12-28-2004, 05:04 PM
How much you want to bet that we'll draft 19th, some player who could have a positive impact on the 2005 season will miraculously fall to our spot, and we'll trade down. :shake:

*edit*
And we won't take said player because he is not a "profile" guy.

no it's not gonna happen Bowser. Cause you said it. :p your jinking our 19th spot, therefore, we are going to draft 13th. Hey we can't have bad luck all the time :shrug:

Logical
12-28-2004, 06:13 PM
no it's not gonna happen Bowser. Cause you said it. :p your jinking our 19th spot, therefore, we are going to draft 13th. Hey we can't have bad luck all the time :shrug:
You been a Chiefs' fan long?

ROYC75
12-28-2004, 06:15 PM
You been a Chiefs' fan long?

No doubt ....... ROFL

nascher
12-28-2004, 06:17 PM
Seattle doesn't matter !

They are already Playoff-Bound

Ari Chi3fs
12-28-2004, 06:28 PM
man, if we had lost the last 4 instead of winning them like total dumbasses.... we would be up wiht the 3 pick. man, that would have owned.

Mr. Laz
12-28-2004, 06:46 PM
Seattle doesn't matter !

They are already Playoff-Bound

[/edit]

playoffs dont impact draft order ... just wins and losses



the only 2 tie breakers are:

1. Strength of Schedule (we lose vitually every tie with this)
2. Coin flip

whoman69
12-28-2004, 07:47 PM
I don't believe making the playoffs can effect their draft position unless they make the Super Bowl.

Logical
12-28-2004, 08:42 PM
I don't believe making the playoffs can effect their draft position unless they make the Super Bowl.

You are correct, record is the only thing that counts towards draft position unless you make the Super Bowl.

Mr. Laz
12-28-2004, 08:52 PM
You are correct, record is the only thing that counts towards draft position unless you make the Super Bowl.

i pretty sure it does make a difference


a several years back Dallas picked ahead of us because we made the playoffs even though they had a better record and you know we didn't make the super bowl. :(


unless they have changed it???? :shrug:

Logical
12-28-2004, 09:00 PM
i pretty sure it does make a difference


a several years back Dallas picked ahead of us because we made the playoffs even though they had a better record and you know we didn't make the super bowl. :(


unless they have changed it???? :shrug:

The team with the lowest winning percentage at the end of the previous season drafts first in the NFL Draft.
The rest of the teams are placed in order from lowest winning percentage to the highest.
The Super Bowl winner drafts last, even if they do not have the highest winning percentage.
The Super Bowl loser drafts next to last.
Strength of schedule for the previous season is the first tie-breaker for teams with the same winning percentage.
Divisional and conference records are the next step in the tie-breaking procedure.
As a last resort, a coin toss is used to determine the order of selection for teams with the same winning percentage.
If a playoff and non-playoff team end the season with the same winning percentage, the non-playoff team selects before the playoff team. http://football.about.com/library/weekly/bl_draftbasics.htm

Frankie
12-28-2004, 10:36 PM
I swear every time we have the same record with a bunch of other teams we are always the last to pick among them. :banghead:

Frankie
12-28-2004, 10:40 PM
13 New Orleans 7-8 .475
14 St. Louis 7-8 .492 ***
15 Houston 7-8 .504
16 Carolina 7-8 .508 ***
17 Cincinnati 7-8 .533
18 Kansas City 7-8 .550



Isn't "head to head" the first tie breaker? If that's the case, Houston, Carolina and New Orleans have beaten us this season. Wouldn't we then pick ahead of them?

philfree
12-29-2004, 06:11 AM
When one studies the win% of the each team and then the records of the teams with the most wins he finds that the top 6 teams opponents win% is less then .500. DV has said from day one in KC that strength of schedule is one of the major factors in making the playoffs. We had one of the toughest schedules in the league this yeas at .550, top 5.


PhilFree :arrow:

nascher
12-29-2004, 06:20 AM
If a playoff and non-playoff team end the season with the same winning percentage, the non-playoff team selects before the playoff team.

htismaqe
12-29-2004, 10:03 AM
So the tie-breaker that we need to be concerned about is strength of schedule...but is a higher SoS better, or worse?

If the season ended today, we would either pick 13th or 18th, depending on the answer to the above question.

BigChiefFan
12-29-2004, 11:04 AM
Looks like we will pick in the top 15, but damn this is confusing. I sure hope we land some impact players in the draft where ever we end up picking.

Mr. Laz
12-29-2004, 11:05 AM
So the tie-breaker that we need to be concerned about is strength of schedule...but is a higher SoS better, or worse?

If the season ended today, we would either pick 13th or 18th, depending on the answer to the above question.

higher SOS means you pick lower



btw- i check into so more and the playoffs don't overrule the win/loss records.


so we can slide down to around 22nd i believe

BigChiefFan
12-29-2004, 11:08 AM
higher SOS means you pick lower



btw- i check into so more and the playoffs don't overrule the win/loss records.


so we can slide down to around 22nd i believeAn 8-8 team that picks 22nd? :cuss: :cuss: :cuss: No wonder Carl was jumping around after the Titans game? LOL.

Mr. Laz
12-29-2004, 11:12 AM
I don't believe making the playoffs can effect their draft position unless they make the Super Bowl.
You are correct, record is the only thing that counts towards draft position unless you make the Super Bowl.

your both right ... dont know what i was thinking :banghead:

htismaqe
12-29-2004, 11:15 AM
So our only hope is to lose and have everybody else ahead of us win this weekend?

I may be rooting for San Diego this weekend, if the difference between winning and losing is TEN PICKS.

:cuss:

Mr. Laz
12-29-2004, 11:18 AM
Isn't "head to head" the first tie breaker? If that's the case, Houston, Carolina and New Orleans have beaten us this season. Wouldn't we then pick ahead of them?
nope...


as far as i know the ONLY 2 tiebreakers in determining the order of the draft is SOS then a coin flip.

Lzen
12-29-2004, 11:25 AM
http://football.about.com/library/weekly/bl_draftbasics.htm


That link is nice and all. But how do we know if it's legitimate info?


higher SOS means you pick lower...

By lower, do you mean better draft position than teams you're tied with recordwise?

Mr. Laz
12-29-2004, 11:50 AM
By lower, do you mean better draft position than teams you're tied with recordwise?

No ...


the higher your SOS the further down the draft you drop


example:

PK Team record SOS
5 team #1 8-8 .100
6 team #2 8-8 .200
7 team #3 8-8 .300
8 team #4 8-8 .400


notice that every team has the same win/loss record at 8-8. But team #1 gets to pick 5th because their SOS is lower at .100.


in otherwords:

Team #1 supposedly played weaker opponents(ie SOS) and still ended up with the same record(8-8) so the NFL considers them the weaker team.

team #3 opponents have a higher win/loss record(ie SOS) and still ended up 8-8 so they must be a little be better to win against harder competition.

Cntrygal
12-29-2004, 01:16 PM
Dallas thought they would be getting a top 10 from us. :D

Rausch
12-29-2004, 01:25 PM
So our only hope is to lose and have everybody else ahead of us win this weekend?

I may be rooting for San Diego this weekend, if the difference between winning and losing is TEN PICKS.

:cuss:

Will the Chargers bench Tomlinson and co. since they've already locked up their division?.... :hmmm:

htismaqe
12-29-2004, 01:28 PM
Will the Chargers bench Tomlinson and co. since they've already locked up their division?.... :hmmm:

Thanks for reminding me that we're ****ing screwed...

:cuss:

bricks
12-29-2004, 02:02 PM
Thanks for reminding me that we're ****ing screwed...

:cuss:

ROFL ROFL this is hilarious. Seriously, its funny how people think they are automatically going to get a better player in the draft cause of higher selection in the draft. Not always the case.

htismaqe
12-29-2004, 02:12 PM
ROFL ROFL this is hilarious. Seriously, its funny how people think they are automatically going to get a better player in the draft cause of higher selection in the draft. Not always the case.

It's not automatic.

But with Carl Peterson in charge, having a higher pick enhances our chance of actually getting a player that can contribute...

Iowanian
12-29-2004, 02:17 PM
The Chiefs need a "96esque" draft.............first 4 picks started D in 1997, and led the team to a very good season.

htismaqe
12-29-2004, 02:19 PM
The Chiefs need a "96esque" draft.............first 4 picks started D in 1997, and led the team to a very good season.

Those guys were all 2nd-year players.

In essence, we need to hope that Key Fox and Junior Siavii (in addition to Allen) become forces next year...

Frankie
12-29-2004, 02:23 PM
I hate to belabor the point. But SHOULDN'T head-to-head results count? It just doesn't make sense to me that 3 teams (Jags, Titans and the winner of the Saints/Panthers game) with potentially equal records with us get to draft ahead of us when they have bettered us on the field.

Frankie
12-29-2004, 02:27 PM
Those guys were all 2nd-year players.

In essence, we need to hope that Key Fox and Junior Siavii (in addition to Allen) become forces next year...

Then let both play substantially this week. I'm all for that.

Mr. Laz
12-29-2004, 02:33 PM
I hate to belabor the point. But SHOULDN'T head-to-head results count?

maybe it should, but it doesn't

bricks
12-29-2004, 03:17 PM
It's not automatic.

But with Carl Peterson in charge, having a higher pick enhances our chance of actually getting a player that can contribute...

Not really. There's a lot of high draft picks that have been busts, or teams that draft high and end up with jack. The Bengals, and the Cardinals are evidence of that. Can't look at it that way. Peterson or no Peterson, it doesn't matter. You can get a good player anywhere. Take '96 as an example, the Chiefs drafted what? In the Mid rounds? To only end up with players like Jerome Woods, Reggie tongue, John Browning, Donnie Edwards, and Joe Horn. It depends all, on who's available, who fits your team, how the scouts evaluate. I think it boils down to luck and timing.

Mr. Laz
12-29-2004, 03:34 PM
I think it boils down to luck and timing.
:rolleyes:

yep, the patriots have won 2 out of the last 3 super bowls because they are lucky


and the chiefs are one of the unluckiest team in recent history


arizona,bungals and the chiefs ...why are we so unlucky :deevee: :deevee:

Ultra Peanut
12-29-2004, 03:34 PM
Actually in a miracle scenario they could tie which if we would lose would have us drafting before both of them.Vlad, bastion of hope!

Ultra Peanut
12-29-2004, 03:35 PM
Those guys were all 2nd-year players.

In essence, we need to hope that Key Fox and Junior Siavii (in addition to Allen) become forces next year...And Jeris McIntyre converts to CB and becomes an All-Pro!

bricks
12-29-2004, 03:37 PM
:rolleyes:

yep, the patriots have won 2 out of the last 3 super bowls because they are lucky


and the chiefs are one of the unluckiest team in recent history


arizona,bungals and the chiefs ...why are we so unlucky :deevee: :deevee:

ROFL My sympathies. God will love us someday :thumb: Our bad luck will run out

Mr. Laz
12-29-2004, 03:48 PM
ROFL My sympathies. God will love us someday :thumb: Our bad luck will run out
GOD hates us :sulk: :sulk:

bricks
12-29-2004, 03:56 PM
GOD hates us :sulk: :sulk:

Maybe he thinks were a**holes? :shrug:

Ultra Peanut
12-29-2004, 04:36 PM
No, but he does think you're one.

bricks
12-29-2004, 04:38 PM
No, but he does think you're one.

Oh yeah. How do you know? Have you had a talk with him recently?

Ultra Peanut
12-29-2004, 04:49 PM
Oh yeah. How do you know? Have you had a talk with him recently?Your momma.

bricks
12-29-2004, 04:51 PM
Your momma.

ROFL ROFL that's right. she also told me that you forgot to take off your crusty diapers.

bricks
12-29-2004, 05:13 PM
You been a Chiefs' fan long?

been a Chiefs fan for 12 years Vlad.

htismaqe
12-29-2004, 05:26 PM
Not really. There's a lot of high draft picks that have been busts, or teams that draft high and end up with jack. The Bengals, and the Cardinals are evidence of that. Can't look at it that way. Peterson or no Peterson, it doesn't matter. You can get a good player anywhere. Take '96 as an example, the Chiefs drafted what? In the Mid rounds? To only end up with players like Jerome Woods, Reggie tongue, John Browning, Donnie Edwards, and Joe Horn. It depends all, on who's available, who fits your team, how the scouts evaluate. I think it boils down to luck and timing.

You're right.

After looking at that list, it's obvious that it doesn't matter where we end up.

Unless we get a top 5 pick, ala Thomas or Smith, Peterson will **** it up.

Logical
12-29-2004, 06:32 PM
Will the Chargers bench Tomlinson and co. since they've already locked up their division?.... :hmmm:

I doubt it Marty is old school like Cowher. Each game is played on its own merits with these type coaches.

bricks
12-29-2004, 08:19 PM
You're right.

After looking at that list, it's obvious that it doesn't matter where we end up.

Unless we get a top 5 pick, ala Thomas or Smith, Peterson will **** it up.

I sure hope we don't get a repeat scenario like we did with ala Ryan Sims.

CanadaKC
12-29-2004, 09:44 PM
Maybe we'll be lucky like the Seahawks, Ravens, and Steelers in recent drafts ...when suprisingly the player they wanted...a la Trufant, Suggs, and Roethlisberger fell into their laps.