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View Full Version : A comparison of Priest "TD" Holmes vs. Larry "diapers" Johnson......


Kris Kringle
01-04-2005, 01:46 PM
Priest Holmes
8 games started --
Rushing - 196 attempts, 892 yds, 4.6 avg, 14 TD
Receiving - 19 rec, 187 yds, 9.8 avg, 1 TD


Larry Johnson
3 games started --
Rushing - 120 attepts, 581 yds, 4.8 avg, 9 TD
Receiving - 22 rec, 278 yds, 12.6 avg, 2 TD

Priest played 7 1/2 games. Larry Johnson started 3 games and appeared in 7 others. It's hard to compare the two RBs by games played, therefore the comparison needs to be done by rushing attempts and receptions or one could just compare them by "touches".

Here we go. --------->

Rushing --
Let's give LJ 196 rushes like Priest had. He would have 949 yds and 14.7 TD. Wow! If we assume that is the equivelent of 8 games, then LJ would have had, over a 16 game schedule, 29 rushing TDs and 1898 yds rushing!!! Of course, one could argue that LJ wouldn't be able to keep up a 4.8 yd average over the course of a 16 game season. One could argue that it's easier to put up big numbers in 3 or 4 games, then over a prolonged 16 game season. That's a valid argument. But one must admit that those are gaudy numbers!!

Recieving--
It's harder to compare the two RBs when it comes to receptions. Priest had 19 in 8 games, while LJ had 22 in 3+ games. I'm going to compare their receptions in ratio to their rushes. (If some mathmetician can do a better comparison, please be my guest. I was terrible at math in H.S.) For every reception, Priest had 10.3 rushes. For every reception, LJ had 5.45 rushes. Using these ratios, Priest would have had 38 receptions and 392 rushes in 16 games. Now we'll compare LJ to Priest. If LJ had 396 rushes, like Priest, he would have had 71 receptions in 16 games. (Is my math correct?) And, if LJ had 71 receptions and maintained the same production level, he would have had 895 yds and 6 TDs!!!! I know that's some contorted and twisted math, but that's the best way I can figure it with my 8th grade education. (just kidding)

Touches--
Let's look at the two by "touches". This will be alot easier. Priest touched the ball 215 times for 1079 yards, 15 TDs and a 5.0 yd average. If LJ got 392 rushes like Priest and 71 receptions as we previously projected, he would have 463 touches for 2793 yds, 35 TDs and a 6.0 average!!! That's just nuts.

-- OK. I acknowledge that my math is probably flawed. Maybe there is a better way to compare the two. Also, I understand that these are just projections and no one can see the future. But, I am surprised at the numbers that LJ put up in just a few games. I didn't like the LJ draft pick. I didn't like LJ's attitude last year. I didn't like his production or the way he looked on the field last year. I still don't like his "smart mouth" when speaking to the media. But it's undeniable that LJ has put up some big numbers in a short period of time.

These numbers make LJ look like a Jamal Lewis type of runner that has good hands and can actually catch passes out of the backfield (Jamal Lewis doesn't). It's rare that you find a runner that is that good and can also catch passes.

Discuss.........

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 01:56 PM
It's dangerous to trick up numbers. Just stick with what you know.... LJ has the potential to be every bit the badass that Holmes has been in KC.

KC should trade Holmes.

Yosef_Malkovitch
01-04-2005, 02:03 PM
It's dangerous to trick up numbers. Just stick with what you know.... LJ has the potential to be every bit the badass that Holmes has been in KC.

KC should trade Holmes.


I agree. Holmes rocks, but he's only got 1-2 years left in him. Plus he seems to get hurt an awful lot lately. Keeping him to split carries with LJ would be a great idea, but he's getting paid too much to split carries with anyone.

Kris Kringle
01-04-2005, 02:04 PM
It's dangerous to trick up numbers. Just stick with what you know.... LJ has the potential to be every bit the badass that Holmes has been in KC.

KC should trade Holmes. We could trade one of our RBs for a CB like Denver did because we have a viable alternative at the running back position. Denver traded for an overrated CB with no viable RBs in their stable. However, I don't think they'll trade Holmes because he doesn't have much trade value. I don't think we'll trade LJ because he's out future at RB.

Pants
01-04-2005, 02:04 PM
KC should keep both Priest and LJ for as long as they play.

Kris Kringle
01-04-2005, 02:11 PM
KC should keep both Priest and LJ for as long as they play. True. In '05 LJ can take the pressure off of Priest. Maybe he'll last 16 games. I'd like to see LJ and Priest in the backfield together once in a while.

JimNasium
01-04-2005, 02:15 PM
LJ for Canton!

blsilks
01-04-2005, 02:18 PM
I would go with the 2 RB, 2FB, 4WR, 2TE formation. oh wait crap you cant do that

beer bacon
01-04-2005, 02:20 PM
I would go with the 2 RB, 2FB, 4WR, 2TE formation. oh wait crap you cant do that

1st and goal formation: 2 RB, 1 FB, 2 TE formation. We can do it!

Kris Kringle
01-04-2005, 02:39 PM
Would anyone like to redo my math? Maybe there is a better / easier way to compare Priest vs. LJ.

HemiEd
01-04-2005, 02:41 PM
1st and goal formation: 2 RB, 1 FB, 2 TE formation. We can do it!

Would that be the "Wing T" of Marv Levy? Yek! :homer:

htismaqe
01-04-2005, 02:43 PM
I find it interesting that Johnson's numbers look almost IDENTICAL to Priest's from the last couple of years when you extrapolate them out over a 16-game season.

Maybe it IS the line.

HemiEd
01-04-2005, 02:44 PM
Would anyone like to redo my math? Maybe there is a better / easier way to compare Priest vs. LJ.

Personally this franchise spent so many years looking for a decent running back that I do not see any reason to compare them. I think we should hold on to them as long as we can and tell anyone that wants one of them to go ---- them self!

Radar Chief
01-04-2005, 02:47 PM
Would that be the "Wing T" of Marv Levy? Yek! :homer:

Yup, or Wish Bone or I Bone or any other variation of the Triple Option Offense that doesnít work in the NCAA any more.

Kris Kringle
01-04-2005, 02:49 PM
Personally this franchise spent so many years looking for a decent running back that I do not see any reason to compare them. I think we should hold on to them as long as we can and tell anyone that wants one of them to go ---- them self! But Mile High Mania says we should trade Priest Holmes. They did.

htismaqe
01-04-2005, 02:50 PM
Yup, or Wish Bone or I Bone or any other variation of the Triple Option Offense that doesnít work in the NCAA any more.

The triple option doesn't work in the NCAA any more? Do you watch college football?

Tuckdaddy
01-04-2005, 02:59 PM
Trade Priest? That's insane. LJ did a nice job but Priest is far more explosive. Forget the numbers, do any of you really think LJ is better than Holmes.

JimNasium
01-04-2005, 03:01 PM
Let me be the first to interject the old Denver Broncos argument.......It's gotta be the scheme.

Rausch
01-04-2005, 03:02 PM
Priest also went up against some tougher defenses (Baltimore and NE.)

Wile_E_Coyote
01-04-2005, 03:05 PM
LJ doesn't have enough games played. Opponents didn't know enough about LJ, Priest they knew. What was the level of competition they both faced? The offense wasn't running smoothly at the beginning of the season.

~both equal big cap hit in trade

HemiEd
01-04-2005, 03:08 PM
But Mile High Mania says we should trade Priest Holmes. They did.

Maybe it is just me but a name like "mile high mania" might indicate that they do not have the best interest of the Chiefs in mind. :hmmm:

Calcountry
01-04-2005, 03:11 PM
KC should keep both Priest and LJ for as long as they play.
agreed

tk13
01-04-2005, 03:17 PM
LJ also busted off far more long gains than Priest did... and that creates a discussion of whether you'd have somebody whos seems to get a lot of 3-4 yard runs and then busts off a 30-40 yarder, or if you look at a guy like Priest who probably has a more consistent set of the 7-10 yard type runs to be able to match LJ's production. I have no evidence to back that up, but it seems like LJ is the better breakaway threat but Priest would be the better guy to consistently move the chains....

htismaqe
01-04-2005, 03:25 PM
It could all be moot.

Priest Holmes is over 30, and has missed 10 games in 3 seasons due to semi-serious injuries.

Radar Chief
01-04-2005, 03:27 PM
The triple option doesn't work in the NCAA any more? Do you watch college football?

Not as much as I used to, mainly only interested in the Big 12, but I still donít remember seeing anyone win a National Championship with it since OU in the Ď80ís.

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 03:31 PM
Maybe it is just me but a name like "mile high mania" might indicate that they do not have the best interest of the Chiefs in mind. :hmmm:

Typically, no I do not. However, in this case... I'm being serious.

Holmes is 31 now right ... will he be 32 by the start of the 2005 season? He's on the wrong side of 30 and while he wasn't used and abused early in his career, he has been the last 4 years. He has a lot of miles on those legs.

KC can't keep Holmes, LJ and Blaylock this offseason - Blaylock is a FA and will be gone unless KC decides to pay him and ignore defense.

Are any of you comfortable with Holmes' injury status? The last 3 years, he's missed 10 starts. May not sound like much, but he's had 2 seasons ended early in the last 3 - missing half of this year.

He might have 2 top tier years left... maybe.

So, why not just see what the value is, make LJ the #1 and resign Blaylock as the #2?

I can imagine that Holmes would still bring a nice trade option.

Would it suck for you guys as fans to trade Holmes? Probably.
Is LJ better than Holmes? That's not the point. LJ can be damn effective in this offense. It most definitely could be the scheme... I mean, what the hell did Priest do in Baltimore and with him, why did they draft Jamal Lewis and he eventually made Holmes expendable.

LJ has the tools and while he only has a fraction of the game time that Priest has had, there are signs that point to LJ being a 1,400 yd rushing / 450 yard receiving / 15+ TD RB in that offense.

And... he has youth, health and a decent contract on his side.

It's not exactly crazy talk...

HemiEd
01-04-2005, 03:44 PM
You are right, very well written. I suppose you are in sales, your case is very well spoken.
I hope we are not getting rid of a Holmes. We need them both! They are two very different runners.
I think Blaylock is well short of these two in talent. IMO Blaylock's success was almost solely based on the offensive line. Good luck in Free agency. Several posters have suggested that it is the system, or the machine. I think that when you add the experience/finesse of Holmes and the speed/youth of LJ, we will have a good running game for a long time!
I personally hope like hell that we do not strip our offense to gain some potential success on the D side of the ball. :thumb:

Skip Towne
01-04-2005, 03:45 PM
Not as much as I used to, mainly only interested in the Big 12, but I still donít remember seeing anyone win a National Championship with it since OU in the Ď80ís.
Somebody better tell Utah the triple option doesn't work any more. And you can't win the NC if they won't let you in it even if undefeated.

tk13
01-04-2005, 03:46 PM
It could all be moot.

Priest Holmes is over 30, and has missed 10 games in 3 seasons due to semi-serious injuries.
Had we been in a playoff run, I don't think he would've missed as many games as he did this year.... I think that stat gets overblown a bit.

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 03:49 PM
You are right, very well written. I suppose you are in sales, your case is very well spoken.
I hope we are not getting rid of a Holmes. We need them both! They are two very different runners.
I think Blaylock is well short of these two in talent. IMO Blaylock's success was almost solely based on the offensive line. Good luck in Free agency. Several posters have suggested that it is the system, or the machine. I think that when you add the experience/finesse of Holmes and the speed/youth of LJ, we will have a good running game for a long time!
I personally hope like hell that we do not strip our offense to gain some potential success on the D side of the ball. :thumb:

Gracias ... I have my moments.

I just don't think the option of keeping Holmes and LJ in any sort of rotation would work. Both deservedly want to be the #1 guy...

What would the Patriots do? I think they would ship away Holmes.

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 03:53 PM
Had we been in a playoff run, I don't think he would've missed as many games as he did this year.... I think that stat gets overblown a bit.

I don't know about that... I think that's more wishful thinking.

htismaqe
01-04-2005, 03:54 PM
Not as much as I used to, mainly only interested in the Big 12, but I still donít remember seeing anyone win a National Championship with it since OU in the Ď80ís.

Until this past season, Nebraska ran the option. Air Force runs the pure triple option to great affect. Utah ran an option offense this season and went undefeated.

I'm guessing roughly half of the 117 teams in Division 1 use the option and it actually works very well.

htismaqe
01-04-2005, 03:56 PM
What would the Patriots do? I think they would ship away Holmes.

Exactly my thought.

If we could get even one 1st-round pick (in a package with later round picks) out of Holmes this season, it would be worth it IMO. We need defensive playmakers in the worst way.

htismaqe
01-04-2005, 03:57 PM
I don't know about that... I think that's more wishful thinking.

Once again, I agree.

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 04:05 PM
I think over time, fans start to think like owners.

Last year, when the Portis/Champ trade came up, I was stunned. I couldn't imagine... I slowly accepted it and it's worked out rather well. They proved they had a great system and didn't need Portis.

Similar deal in KC ... although, you're not trading a 23 year old stud... you're talking about a 32 year old stud.

The window keeps getting smaller.

By trading Holmes, you might lose a bit of the "wow factor", who knows. But, in this scenario... you keep a guy in LJ who can be a 1,800 combined yards and 17+ combined TD guy for the next 7 years, compared to maybe 2 with Holmes.

So, in essence the offense gets incredibly younger without losing much at all in production.

HemiEd
01-04-2005, 04:26 PM
I think over time, fans start to think like owners.

Last year, when the Portis/Champ trade came up, I was stunned. I couldn't imagine... I slowly accepted it and it's worked out rather well. They proved they had a great system and didn't need Portis.

Similar deal in KC ... although, you're not trading a 23 year old stud... you're talking about a 32 year old stud.

The window keeps getting smaller.

By trading Holmes, you might lose a bit of the "wow factor", who knows. But, in this scenario... you keep a guy in LJ who can be a 1,800 combined yards and 17+ combined TD guy for the next 7 years, compared to maybe 2 with Holmes.

So, in essence the offense gets incredibly younger without losing much at all in production.

Clinton Portis a Stud? I hate that SOB, every since he did that belt thing. I only wish that we would have done it back this year when we smeared donkey crapt all over arrowhead! But the Chiefs Profile does not allow that sort of thing. Speaking of Horsefaces, I will never forget Sharpe for the Monday Night Meltdown either! He is another Jackass!
My point is this, Priest is a known factor, he is going to score touchdowns. We lost two games right after he went down that we would not have lost had he been healthy. We could not get in the end zone, Blaylock came up short.
No, in my opinion the Donkeys and Faiders can do their thing, Chiefs need no advice from them.
Oh by the way, I was born in Englewood.

tk13
01-04-2005, 04:33 PM
I don't know about that... I think that's more wishful thinking.
I don't, the guy was limping around bad supposedly the week before the Houston game... the KC Star reporters that saw him basically had it written down as fact that he wasn't playing Sunday, then what happens, he shows up on gameday and runs for like 130 yards.... he's pretty tough. He said if we were in the playoff hunt he might have very well put a brace on it and played the last couple-three games of the year.

Wallcrawler
01-04-2005, 04:34 PM
Trading Holmes would NOT be a good idea.

Priest holmes has the experience, and playmaking ability that Johnson "could" have.

Priest has done the things he has done against defenses great, and poor.


Larry Johnson has done much of his piling of stats against very, very sub par defenses. His long runs came against the Raiders and the Titans, both of which have some sorry ass run defense. He had a good game against Denver which has a pretty good defense, so Ill give credit where it is due. But Priest Holmes ripped the crap out of that Broncos run defense in the opener as well.

Against the second string San Diego squad, he wasnt putting up gaudy numbers. He had a good game receiving, but rushing the ball, he was stuffed repeatedly.


Priest Holmes is reliable as well. He averages one fumble about every 400 touches of the football. While Larry Johnson hasnt lost the handle yet, he hasnt proven an ability to protect the ball all season long as Priest Holmes has.

Priest has playoff experience, and has a superbowl ring as well. He knows how to handle all of the distractions that the post season brings, whereas Larry Johnson has already shown a penchant for causing a distraction himself.

L.J. is pretty good, and shows great promise, you cant argue that. But to trade away Priest Holmes after Johnson performs well in a few starts against poor defenses is jumping the gun just a little.

With Priest Holmes healthy, and in the starting role, with Larry Johnson coming in with fresh legs to spell him against a tired defense, Holmes and Johnson could be the one two punch that sends the KC rushing offense to an even higher level than what it has been recently.

I say keep em both, and when Holmes retires, L.J. should have enough experience to assume the starting role. Holmes is too great of a player and leader to trade away, especially when trying to make a run at the playoffs, and through to the superbowl.

Not to mention the salary cap hit that KC would take if they were to trade him away. It would have to be a blockbuster gain for the Chiefs to take that kind of cap hit.

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 04:36 PM
Clinton Portis a Stud? I hate that SOB, every since he did that belt thing. I only wish that we would have done it back this year when we smeared donkey crapt all over arrowhead! But the Chiefs Profile does not allow that sort of thing. Speaking of Horsefaces, I will never forget Sharpe for the Monday Night Meltdown either! He is another Jackass!
My point is this, Priest is a known factor, he is going to score touchdowns. We lost two games right after he went down that we would not have lost had he been healthy. We could not get in the end zone, Blaylock came up short.
No, in my opinion the Donkeys and Faiders can do their thing, Chiefs need no advice from them.
Oh by the way, I was born in Englewood.

Portis had 3,000+ yards and 30+ TDs in 2 years... that's a stud.

The Chiefs' profile or Vermeils? The Chiefs are not this saintly organization with a bunch of angels.

How concerned are you about the health of Priest... the known factor?

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 04:42 PM
Also ... I just threw this out as a "what if" scenario. I don't care all that much...

Age, need and window of opportunity should be considered when looking at KC the next 2-3 years.

ArrowheadHawk
01-04-2005, 04:44 PM
Also ... I just threw this out as a "what if" scenario. I don't care all that much...

Age, need and window of opportunity should be considered when looking at KC the next 2-3 years.is it just me or is it ironic that your avatar is a donkey? when you support the donkeys?

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 04:46 PM
is it just me or is it ironic that your avatar is a donkey? when you support the donkeys?

Just my li'l attempt to play along with the Donkey and Donc references around here... plus, I'm a good guy. Hence "good li'l donkey".

Oh, and my 3 year old loves Shrek.

HemiEd
01-04-2005, 04:47 PM
Portis had 3,000+ yards and 30+ TDs in 2 years... that's a stud.

The Chiefs' profile or Vermeils? The Chiefs are not this saintly organization with a bunch of angels.

How concerned are you about the health of Priest... the known factor?

How concerned am I about Priest? Not at all, in fact, I am very suspicous about a lot of Pro Sports injuries that are convenient. He was even talking in his interview prior to the injury that people were trying to hurt him. When you add the pressure coming from the LJ thing, the perception that the Chiefs were out of it, who knows. :hmmm:

The Chiefs profile is Vermiels, he got rid of the thugs as his first order of business. That is why the Chiefs do not go after free agents like TO and the like.

As far as a Stud goes, I guess in Donkey territory you would be an expert on measuring studs.

Don't the Donkey's have their own medium?

jollymon
01-04-2005, 06:53 PM
Not gonna compare LJ and Priest. They are two entirely different backs. Plus if LJ was so freaking awesome why couldn't he get the starting job out of Priest? If LJ was outperforming Priest in practice then I would guess LJ would have won the position. But hey what do I know I just teach history....

Mile High Mania
01-04-2005, 06:59 PM
jollymon... I don't know that anyone has said LJ is better. When both are 100% healthy and you have the option, you pick Priest 10 out of 10 times.

I'm just saying that in this offense... LJ is not that dramatic of a dropoff that would make trading the 32 year old and injured Priest.

hemied ... you act as if at 3-5, the Chiefs said ... "well, pack up the tents 'cuz we're outta this one." Get real, they wouldn't just rest Holmes for the 2nd half of the season.

alanm
01-04-2005, 07:07 PM
Not as much as I used to, mainly only interested in the Big 12, but I still donít remember seeing anyone win a National Championship with it since OU in the Ď80ís.Uh... Nebraska in 94-95 and 97.:thumb:

Coach
01-04-2005, 07:15 PM
MHM, you put up good points about trading away Priest and all that, however KC's cap would take a big hit if Holmes was traded or released, will it not?

milkman
01-04-2005, 07:41 PM
Not gonna compare LJ and Priest. They are two entirely different backs. Plus if LJ was so freaking awesome why couldn't he get the starting job out of Priest? If LJ was outperforming Priest in practice then I would guess LJ would have won the position. But hey what do I know I just teach history....

I don't believe that coaches always make the right decisions, especially when a decision involves a rookie, or youg player and a vet.

I'm not suggesting that LJ is better than Priest, because I think that Priest is more reliable and consistent.

But when I look at a guy like Jared Allen, who was buried on the depth chart behind Vonnie Holliday, until Holliday went down with an injury, it's pretty clear that coaches don't always make the right decisions.

whoman69
01-04-2005, 07:45 PM
I find it interesting that Johnson's numbers look almost IDENTICAL to Priest's from the last couple of years when you extrapolate them out over a 16-game season.

Maybe it IS the line.
2 words why this isn't the case. Mike Cloud.