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View Full Version : Let's put the "big name" corner thing to bed. Here's a table I've worked up.


mcan
02-05-2005, 10:59 PM
Team Comp % TDs
Baltimore 55.1 14 --------------C. McAlister / G. Baxter
Pittsburgh 55.6 14 -------------W. Williams / D. Townsend
Philadelphia 60.7 16 ------------D. Wynn / S. Brown / L. Sheppard
Washington 57.1 17 ------------S. Springs / W. Harris
Cleveland 60.2 17 --------------A. Henry / D. McCutcheon
Denver 56.2 17 ----------------C. Bailey / K. Herndon
Arizona 53.7 18 ----------------D. Starks / D. Macklin
New England 58.6 18 -----------T. Law / A. Samuel
Jacksonville 61.6 18 -----------R. Mathis / D. Washington
Carolina 59.1 18 ---------------R. Manning / C. Gamble
San Diego 61.3 19 -------------Q. Jammer / S. Davis
Atlanta 63.4 19 ---------------D. Hall / J. Webster
Miami 56.2 20 -----------------P. Surtain / S. Madison
Buffalo 53.7 20 ----------------T. McGee / N. Clements
Tampa Bay 56.7 21 ------------B. Kelly / R. Barber
New York (Jets) 58.1 21 -------D. Abraham / D. Barrett
Cincinnati 60.2 23 -------------D. O'Neal / T. James
Chicago 55.7 23 ---------------C. Tillman / J. Azumah
St. Louis 59.3 24 --------------J. Butler / D. Groce
Seattle 60.8 24 ---------------M. Trufant / K. Lucas
New Orleans 59.4 24 ----------A. Ambrose / F. Thomas
Indianapolis 65.4 26 -----------N. Harper / J. David
San Francisco 62.9 27 ---------A. Plummer / S. Spencer
New York (Giants) 62.5 28 -----W. Allen / W. Peterson
Tennessee 63.5 29 ------------A. Dyson / S. Rolle
Detroit 61.3 29 ---------------F. Bryant / D. Bly
Minnesota 62.1 30 ------------A. Winfield / B. Williams
Oakland 61.8 30 --------------C. Woodson / P. Buchanon
Dallas 61.8 31 ----------------T. Newman / L. Frazier
Houston 64.9 32 --------------A. Glenn / D. Robinson
Kansas City 59.8 32 -----------E. Warfield / W. Bartee
Green Bay 60.6 33 ------------A. Carroll / A. Harris

italics = injured
BOLD = probowl

OK, that was a lot of work... Let's see if it shows us anything. To start, I firmly believe that the best evaluation stats for a defensive backfield are TDs given up, and Completing percentage against. I'll tell you why.

1. TDs given up: Tells you how much "clutch" playmaking ability the defensive backs have as a whole. An occaisional big play might happen against a good defensive back, but his job all in all is to keep the recievers out of the end zone. The stat is weakest because it doesn't account for blown coverages by linebackers...

2. Comp % against: This is the only stat that is independent of the front four. This stat tells me how many times a defender makes a play on a ball for every time the ball leaves the quarterback's hand. The stat is weakest because again it doesn't account for linebacker/safety mistakes, and it is inaccurate also in that sometimes incomplete passes are just bad passes/throw aways/spiked balls...


Conclusion: I post the information, now you guys decide based on the stats... Is the rule significantly hampering big name guys? Are there "better" corners at the top of this list than there are at the bottom?

Things to consider: Could it be that interceptions are over-rated in the cornerback evaluation process? If a corner gives up 90% of his passes as complete, but intercepts 10%... He'll lead the league in INTS, and make the probowl, but is he really doing his job?

FloridaChief
02-05-2005, 11:05 PM
Could you summarize and get back to me w/ a post-it note?

SoCalBronco
02-05-2005, 11:08 PM
Completion percentage in general tells me nothing about the quality of a team's CBs. If i throw to the backs and TE all day and go 17/24 for 220, thats around 70% but it isnt the corner's fault. Unless that statistic is pass completion percentage to outside wide recievers matched up against those cited cornerbacks in man to man coverage whereby the QB had less than 4 seconds to throw, the stats dont mean much.

Delano
02-05-2005, 11:09 PM
I was hoping you created a cool poker table design when I read the topic header..

morphius
02-05-2005, 11:11 PM
Ummm, well, ummm, I can tie my shoelaces.

KS Smitty
02-05-2005, 11:15 PM
http://oakbarn.biz/CoffeeSofaEndTables/51-75%20Mission%20Corner%20Table%20with%20Drawer.jpg

Delano
02-05-2005, 11:20 PM
The great thing about that table is that it is corner-conforming.

What a space saver!

mcan
02-05-2005, 11:36 PM
Completion percentage in general tells me nothing about the quality of a team's CBs. If i throw to the backs and TE all day and go 17/24 for 220, thats around 70% but it isnt the corner's fault. Unless that statistic is pass completion percentage to outside wide recievers matched up against those cited cornerbacks in man to man coverage whereby the QB had less than 4 seconds to throw, the stats dont mean much.


It's extremely rare that a set of RBs catch 17 balls a game. Most running backs avarage 2-3 catches per game... Not that it doesn't happen on occaision, but I think the number of dropped/incatchable balls on average makes up for the number of catches by RBs/FBs, and usually if a team has a great pass catching TE, then he is covered by a corner on passing downs... So, I think it just about evens out.

Yardage is the common stat used for evaluation, but that stat is completely misleading. A team might give up a ton of yardage but never give up touchdowns. They might also have a bad offense, and so they are on the field all day giving up the average amount of first downs, but since the opposition has the ball all the time, they rack up more yards. Also, a defense might be terrible and give up not that many yards but tons of points if the opposition avarages starting the ball around midfield.

Some day when I get more time, I might make a statistical comparison by team for number of balls caught by recievers vs that team... I'll bet that the order would be pretty close though...

Delano
02-05-2005, 11:40 PM
...Some day when I get more time, I might make a ...

A blueprint for a neat poker table? Aww, you are the man!

cdcox
02-05-2005, 11:41 PM
It seems that it would be hard to make a strong case for getting a great corner, based on these stats.

morphius
02-05-2005, 11:43 PM
Not sure if this link will work good or not, but, it is Pass Defended by CB's only, which is a stat that is nice to see because it shows their ability to make a play on the ball, but is bad because if you are thrown on more then you are going to have more chances to do it.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byposition?pos=CB&conference=NFL&year=season_2004&sort=113&timeframe=All

cdcox
02-05-2005, 11:44 PM
However, watching the games does tell me we need much better plays out of the #2 corner position. I'm just not sold that it has to be a great player. I'd rather have the pro-bowler at LB, S or DE.

mcan
02-06-2005, 04:44 AM
A blueprint for a neat poker table? Aww, you are the man!


Poker Table BB (http://www.scottkeen.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=7)

There, now back to the discussion at hand, right?... Come on guys, if you think these stats suck, just say so. Tell me how you would better evaluate a defensive backfield, and why...

philfree
02-06-2005, 09:18 AM
However, watching the games does tell me we need much better plays out of the #2 corner position. I'm just not sold that it has to be a great player. I'd rather have the pro-bowler at LB, S or DE.

A pro bowl LB or S? I guess it depends on what's available. I'm having trouble locating that pro bowl OLB that we so desperately need.


PhilFree :arrow:

LiL stumppy
02-06-2005, 11:42 AM
Good work

CanadaKC
02-06-2005, 11:43 AM
I'd rather put the let's put "the worst ranked defence" thing to bed.
And a lot of that...sorry to say...has to do with our secondary getting torched. F#ck those stats.

brent102fire
02-06-2005, 11:54 AM
The bottom line is Burntee and McCleon got torched all year. Burntee never turns his head and McCleon is just not CB material anymore. The Chiefs have no MLB and no OLB. They also need a new DE and Sims needs to be more consistent. The Chiefs Defense Sucks, Period!

Chris Meck
02-06-2005, 12:23 PM
true dat.

Chris Meck
02-06-2005, 12:34 PM
looks to me to be pretty even, that table.

Like there's about as many quality corners at the bottom as at the top.

There are many other factors at work there, though-like how good is the team's pass rush? If a QB can wait in the pocket all day, you're going to get torched.

Anway; I'd like some new corners, but not if it means we get no help at the other positions we're weak at.


Chris

crossbow
02-06-2005, 04:00 PM
There are a lot of variables that determine a teams stats.

1. Schedule
2. Did they play pass oriented teams?
3. Play in bad weather, domes? More scoring in domes and less in blizards.
4. Type of coverage. Cover two, man-to-man, zone.

Stats are good for revealing trends. Your stats reveal that our secondary does indeed need help.

Don't be surprized if you seen more of Benny Sapp as a nickel back next year. Gun said in an interiew on 610 sports that he likes the guy.