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FringeNC
04-24-2005, 08:37 AM
http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=352791&category=SPORTS&BCCode=&newsdate=4/20/2005

Grab bag 2005

By MARK McGUIRE, Staff writer
First published: Wednesday, April 20, 2005

The 2005 NFL draft has been called hit-or-miss, one filled with uncertainty -- starting with the very first pick. But that's what it always is, even if it doesn't seem that way on draft day.

The San Francisco 49ers, who own the No. 1 overall selection, may want to read this. Or not. Or just trade down.

If San Francisco stays in the top spot in this year's draft, the Niners would likely take either California QB Aaron Rodgers or Utah quarterback Alex Smith, with Michigan wide receiver Braylon Edwards as an outside possibility.

Whomever San Francisco selects, the franchise will have only a one-in-five chance of picking the man who will go on to be the best player coming out in 2005, according to an analysis of the last two decades of NFL drafts.

That's the same 20 percent chance the Niners have of picking the biggest bust in the draft, according to recent history. (Anybody remember Aundray Bruce? Steve Emtman?)

Don't laugh, Miami Dolphin fans: Your not sitting any prettier at No. 2. The same dangerous odds apply to the second position in the first round, which in 1998 produced arguably the biggest bust of all time: San Diego Charger quarterback "Cryin' " Ryan Leaf.

Let's be clear: That doesn't mean in past drafts a team was wrong to select a given player, even if he didn't pan out. For example, based on pre-draft analysis Leaf was not a bad pick. He just turned out to be a bad pro.

And no expert projected 2000 sixth-rounder Tom Brady to lead his team to three Super Bowl titles in his first five seasons.

An admittedly subjective review of the last 20 No. 1 overall picks reveals only four proved to be worthy of the top selections. To be fair, that includes a pair of drafts headed by future Hall of Famers (Bruce Smith, 1985, and Troy Aikman, 1989) who were bettered only by other sure-fire Canton inductees (Jerry Rice and Barry Sanders).

Still, the best player in a given draft is likely to come from one of the top three spots (45 percent) or certainly the first round (85 percent).

But if you are looking for the draft's biggest steals -- and to build multi-Super Bowl champions -- keep an eye on picks 190-199 (which this year falls in the middle of sixth round).

That's where the Denver Broncos got Shannon Sharpe (192nd, 1990) and Terrell Davis (196th, 1995). Meanwhile, the New England Patriots drafted two of their most important offensive cogs in that area: Troy Brown (198th, 1993) and -- in the biggest draft steal of the past two decades -- Brady (199th, 2000).

Of course, talking busts and steals (best value considering where a player was selected) and shoulda-been No. 1s involves opinion. So here's where the above numbers are coming from, a statistical yet subjective look at the last 20 years of the NFL draft. Keep in mind the determinations of the past four drafts can change as players from those years continue to blossom or bottom out:

2004*

1st Overall: Eli Manning (San Diego Chargers; traded to New York Giants). Should Have Been: Ben Roethlisberger, 11th (Pittsburgh Steelers). Biggest Bust: Rashaun Woods, 31st (San Francisco 49ers). Biggest Steal: Erik Coleman, 143rd, 5th round (New York Jets).

2003*

1st Overall: Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals). Should Have Been: Byron Leftwich, 7th (Jacksonville Jaguars). Biggest Bust: Johnathan Sullivan, 6th (New Orleans Saints). Biggest Steal: Willis McGahee, 23rd, (Buffalo Bills).

2002*

1st Overall: David Carr (Houston Texans). Should Have Been: Julius Peppers, 2nd (Carolina Panthers). Biggest Bust: Ryan Sims, 6th (Kansas City Chiefs). Biggest Steal: Deion Branch, 65th, 2nd round (New England Patriots).

2001*

1st Overall: Michael Vick, (Atlanta Falcons). Should Have Been: Vick. Biggest Bust: David Terrell, 8th (Chicago Bears). Biggest Steal: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 204th, 7th round (Bengals).

2000*

1st Overall: Courtney Brown (Cleveland Browns). Should Have Been: Tom Brady, 199th, 6th round (Patriots). Biggest Bust: Brown. Biggest Steal: Brady.

1999

1st Overall: Tim Couch (Browns). Should Have Been: Donovan McNabb, 2nd (Philadelphia Eagles). Biggest Bust: Akili Smith, 3rd (Bengals). Biggest Steal: Donald Driver, 213th, 7th round (Green Bay Packers).

1998

1st Overall: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Should Have Been: Manning. Biggest Bust: Ryan Leaf, 2nd (Chargers). Biggest Steal: Matt Hasselbeck, 187th, 6th round (Packers).

1997

1st Overall: Orlando Pace (St. Louis Rams). Should Have Been: Pace. Biggest Bust: Darrell Russell, 2nd (Oakland Raiders). Biggest Steal: Tony Gonzalez, 13th (Chiefs).

1996

1st Overall: Keyshawn Johnson (Jets). Should Have Been: Ray Lewis, 26th (Baltimore Ravens). Biggest Bust: Lawrence Phillips, 6th (Rams). Biggest Steal: Lewis.

1995

1st Overall: Ki-Jana Carter (Bengals). Should Have Been: Steve McNair, 3rd, (Houston Oilers). Biggest Bust: Carter. Biggest Steal: Terrell Davis, 196th, 6th round (Denver Broncos).

1994

(Seven-round draft era begins) 1st Overall: Dan Wilkinson (Bengals). Should Have Been: Marshall Faulk, 2nd (Colts). Biggest Bust: Heath Shuler, 3rd (Washington Redskins). Biggest Steal: Tom Nalen, 218th, 7th round (Broncos).

1993

(Eight rounds) 1st Overall: Drew Bledsoe (Patriots). Should Have Been: Bledsoe. Biggest Bust: Eric Curry, 6th (Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Biggest Steal: Troy Brown, 198th, 7th round (Patriots).

1992

(Last year with 12 rounds) 1st Overall: Steve Emtman (Colts). Should Have Been: Jimmy Smith, 36th, second round (Dallas Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Emtman. Biggest Steal: Mark Chmura, 157th, 6th round (Packers).

1991

1st Overall: Russell Maryland (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Brett Favre, 33rd, 2nd round (Falcons). Biggest Bust: Mike Croel, 4th (Broncos). Biggest Steal: Favre.

1990

1st Overall: Jeff George (Colts). Should Have Been: Emmitt Smith, 17th (Cowboys). Biggest Bust: Blair Thomas, 2nd (Jets). Biggest Steal: Shannon Sharpe, 192th, 7th round (Broncos).

1989

1st Overall: Troy Aikman (Cowboys). Should Have Been: Barry Sanders, 3rd (Detroit Lions). Biggest Bust: Tony Mandarich, 2nd (Packers). Biggest Steal: Mark Stepnoski, 57th, 3rd round (Cowboys).

1988

1st Overall: Aundray Bruce (Falcons). Should Have Been: Tim Brown, 6th (Los Angeles Raiders). Biggest Bust: Bruce. Biggest Steal: Bill Romanowski, 80th, 3rd round (49ers).

1987

1st Overall: Vinny Testaverde (Buccaneers). Should Have Been: Rod Woodson, 10th (Steelers). Biggest Bust: Brent Fullwood, 4th (Packers). Biggest Steal: Bo Jackson, 183rd, 7th round (Raiders).

1986

1st Overall: Tony Casillas (Falcons). Should Have Been: Leslie O'Neal, 8th (Chargers). Biggest Bust: Anthony Bell, 5th (St. Louis Cardinals). Biggest Steal: Mark Rypien, 146th, 6th round (Redskins).

1985

1st Overall: Bruce Smith (Bills). Should Have Been: Jerry Rice, 16th (49ers). Biggest Bust: George Adams, 19th (Giants) Biggest Steal: Rice.

(* Evaluation subject to change)

NaptownChief
04-24-2005, 08:43 AM
No way Vick over Tomlinson...Tomlinson is arguably the best RB in the game and Mexico is no where close to being the best QB in the game..If all you are wanting with the top pick is hype then Mexico is the guy but otherwise Tomlinson in a run away.

As for even posting comments on the 2004 draft at this point is foolish.

Sims definitely deserves the biggest bust tag at this point...Considering he was not only the 6th overall pick but the fact we tossed in a early 3rd rounder to move up and get him there only adds to the expense. However Eddie Freeman did his best to beat Sims out of that honor.

FringeNC
04-24-2005, 09:20 AM
No way Vick over Tomlinson...Tomlinson is arguably the best RB in the game and Mexico is no where close to being the best QB in the game..If all you are wanting with the top pick is hype then Mexico is the guy but otherwise Tomlinson in a run away.

As for even posting comments on the 2004 draft at this point is foolish.

Sims definitely deserves the biggest bust tag at this point...Considering he was not only the 6th overall pick but the fact we tossed in a early 3rd rounder to move up and get him there only adds to the expense. However Eddie Freeman did his best to beat Sims out of that honor.

Based on football skills alone, I agree with you. Vick is so overrated. Atlanta wouldn't even throw the ball against continual 7-8 man fronts against Philly because they had absolultely no confidence in Vick.

...but when you look at Vick's star power -- Atlanta has 3 MNF home games (!), and didn't they recently make Vick the highest paid player in the league?

Skip Towne
04-24-2005, 09:28 AM
Sims is certainly a candidate for bust of the year.

suds79
04-24-2005, 09:28 AM
No way Vick over Tomlinson...Tomlinson is arguably the best RB in the game and Mexico is no where close to being the best QB in the game..If all you are wanting with the top pick is hype then Mexico is the guy but otherwise Tomlinson in a run away.

As for even posting comments on the 2004 draft at this point is foolish.

Sims definitely deserves the biggest bust tag at this point...Considering he was not only the 6th overall pick but the fact we tossed in a early 3rd rounder to move up and get him there only adds to the expense. However Eddie Freeman did his best to beat Sims out of that honor.

Very True. Love to watch Vick but I can name about 7 other QBs better than him. LT's the man.

And unfortunately I agree that Ryan Sims was the biggest bust of that years draft and can't see any reason why that'd all of a sudden turn around.... Bust.

keg in kc
04-24-2005, 09:34 AM
He's been a bust so far, no doubt. 2005 is pretty much his last chance to redeem himself. No excuses left, he's got a scheme to fit his 'talent', he's been in that scheme for 2 years, and he's got enough personnel around him now to not use that as an excuse.

But I'd have to say Wendall Bryant -- the guy I wanted -- is a bigger bust. 12th pick, 28 tackles, 1.5 sacks.

The amazing thing to me is that out of all those big d-linemen taken early that draft, only John Henderson has done anything.

whoman69
04-24-2005, 01:18 PM
I think he's certainly up there, but Joey Harrington has not had any more success as a starter than Sims had and he was at #3 overall. How many guys in the upper half of the first round are now out of the NFL or have not earned a starting spot.

Ultra Peanut
04-24-2005, 01:20 PM
The Vick/Tomlinson/Brees trade was outstanding, for both teams.

Ultra Peanut
04-24-2005, 01:20 PM
But I'd have to say Wendall Bryant -- the guy I wanted -- is a bigger bust. 12th pick, 28 tackles, 1.5 sacks.Exactly what I was going to say, right down to the "I wanted him" part.

Tribal Warfare
04-24-2005, 01:41 PM
I wanted John Henderson, I guess college production didn't count that year

SLAG
03-10-2006, 03:57 PM
damn we need a good DL

Brock
03-10-2006, 04:08 PM
Anyone who "thinks" Ryan Sims is a bigger bust than Joey Harrington is a complete douchebag.

SLAG
03-10-2006, 04:11 PM
Anyone who "thinks" Ryan Sims is a bigger bust than Joey Harrington is a complete douchebag.


I think Joey might have more tackles than Ryan..... For sure more INT's

BigChiefFan
03-10-2006, 04:12 PM
Sims has been a HUGE disappointment. He's one player that we should have approached about cap relief. What a waste. I've been patient with him, but after last year, I would say he's a officially a BUST. Could he turn it around? Sure, but so far, he hasn't even come close to being an impact D-lineman.

HolmeZz
03-10-2006, 04:14 PM
:| The Bengals should have drafted Leftwich over Palmer? And Vick over Tomlinson?

SLAG
03-10-2006, 04:33 PM
I still dont know why he is on this team

alanm
03-10-2006, 05:25 PM
Sims has been a HUGE disappointment. He's one player that we should have approached about cap relief. What a waste. I've been patient with him, but after last year, I would say he's a officially a BUST. Could he turn it around? Sure, but so far, he hasn't even come close to being an impact D-lineman.
What sucks even worse is we just had to beat Minnesota to the podium to get him. :banghead: :cuss: :banghead:
Damnit Carl!!! :cuss: :cuss: :cuss:

TEX
03-10-2006, 05:51 PM
What sucks even worse is we just had to beat Minnesota to the podium to get him. :banghead: :cuss: :banghead:
Damnit Carl!!! :cuss: :cuss: :cuss:

And what $UCKS even worse, is it cost us a # 3 to move up to get him. :shake:

SLAG
03-10-2006, 05:52 PM
Was Sims a GROB recruit?

HerculesRockefell
03-10-2006, 08:11 PM
2002*

1st Overall: David Carr (Houston Texans). Should Have Been: Julius Peppers, 2nd (Carolina Panthers). Biggest Bust: Ryan Sims, 6th (Kansas City Chiefs). Biggest Steal: Deion Branch, 65th, 2nd round (New England Patriots).


Branch
213 rec 2744 yds 14 TDs

and about 1/3 of that all came this year after this article was written

Portis
5930 yds and 45 TDs

Yeah, Branch was a bigger steal than Portis.

jspchief
03-11-2006, 06:27 AM
:| The Bengals should have drafted Leftwich over Palmer? And Vick over Tomlinson?Yea, that's what I thought. Anyone that thinks Leftwich is better than Palmer hasn't watched football for the last two years.

They also list Willis McGahee as the biggest steal in 2003. Nevermind that Larry Johnson was taken 4 picks later, has more yards, more TDs, and a higher YPC average.

the Talking Can
03-11-2006, 07:02 AM
well duh

milkman
03-11-2006, 08:03 AM
Yea, that's what I thought. Anyone that thinks Leftwich is better than Palmer hasn't watched football for the last two years.

They also list Willis McGahee as the biggest steal in 2003. Nevermind that Larry Johnson was taken 4 picks later, has more yards, more TDs, and a higher YPC average.

To be fair, this article was written before the '05 season.

Before the '05 draft, actually.

Coogs
03-11-2006, 09:26 AM
2003 biggest steal... :shake:

LJ

milkman
03-11-2006, 09:31 AM
2003 biggest steal... :shake:

LJ

How about Jared Allen as the biggest steal in the '04 draft.

jspchief
03-11-2006, 10:06 AM
To be fair, this article was written before the '05 season.

Before the '05 draft, actually.Yea, that changes things a little.

ck_IN
03-11-2006, 11:20 AM
Yep Ryan Sims. The signature DV draft pick. The guy we traded up to get and passed by John Henderson for.

Classic DV.

jspchief
03-11-2006, 11:25 AM
Yep Ryan Sims. The signature DV draft pick. The guy we traded up to get and passed by John Henderson for.

Classic DV.Sims was highly regarded coming out of the draft. Henderson might have been ranked higher on some draft boards, but those guys were 1 and 1a. The Chiefs may have missed on him, but it's not like they pulled his name out of their ass. Can't use hindsight to pretend that you knew something back then.

milkman
03-11-2006, 11:27 AM
Sims was highly regarded coming out of the draft. Henderson might have been ranked higher on some draft boards, but those guys were 1 and 1a. The Chiefs may have missed on him, but it's not like they pulled his name out of their ass. Can't use hindsight to pretend that you knew something back then.

I also believe that Spinner scewed his first two seasons, and injury screwed his last season.

I still believe that he can live up to his potential, but this has to be the season for him to step up.

ck_IN
03-11-2006, 11:30 AM
That's exactly the point. Sims and Henderson <b>were</b> 1 and 1a. That means there was no overriding reason to trade up to get one if you could've gotten the other. If we'd have taken Sims at 8 and he was a bust then fine. My beef is that DV was so enamoured that he gave up a 3rd (or 2nd) round pick to move two spaces to get Sims when one of the two would clearly be there at 8.

htismaqe
03-11-2006, 12:38 PM
That's exactly the point. Sims and Henderson <b>were</b> 1 and 1a. That means there was no overriding reason to trade up to get one if you could've gotten the other. If we'd have taken Sims at 8 and he was a bust then fine. My beef is that DV was so enamoured that he gave up a 3rd (or 2nd) round pick to move two spaces to get Sims when one of the two would clearly be there at 8.

There were some very legitimate concerns about Henderson's health at the time.

And the Chiefs weren't the only team that coveted Sims.

htismaqe
03-11-2006, 12:39 PM
Sims is not the biggest bust of the 2002 draft class anyway...

1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas
6 Kansas City Ryan Sims DT North Carolina
7 Minnesota Bryant McKinnie T Miami
8 Dallas Roy Williams FS Oklahoma
9 Jacksonville John Henderson DT Tennessee
10 Cincinnati Levi Jones T Arizona State
11 Indianapolis Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse
12 Arizona Wendell Bryant DT Wisconsin
13 New Orleans Donte' Stallworth WR Tennessee
14 N.Y. Giants Jeremy Shockey TE Miami
15 Tennessee Albert Haynesworth DT Tennessee

SLAG
03-11-2006, 12:45 PM
Sims is not the biggest bust of the 2002 draft class anyway...

1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas
6 Kansas City Ryan Sims DT North Carolina
7 Minnesota Bryant McKinnie T Miami
8 Dallas Roy Williams FS Oklahoma
9 Jacksonville John Henderson DT Tennessee
10 Cincinnati Levi Jones T Arizona State
11 Indianapolis Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse
12 Arizona Wendell Bryant DT Wisconsin
13 New Orleans Donte' Stallworth WR Tennessee
14 N.Y. Giants Jeremy Shockey TE Miami
15 Tennessee Albert Haynesworth DT Tennessee

Now why didnt we draft Roy Williams?

can anyone remind me?

jspchief
03-11-2006, 12:46 PM
Sims is not the biggest bust of the 2002 draft class anyway...

1 Houston David Carr QB Fresno State
2 Carolina Julius Peppers DE North Carolina
3 Detroit Joey Harrington QB Oregon
4 Buffalo Mike Williams T Texas
5 San Diego Quentin Jammer CB Texas
6 Kansas City Ryan Sims DT North Carolina
7 Minnesota Bryant McKinnie T Miami
8 Dallas Roy Williams FS Oklahoma
9 Jacksonville John Henderson DT Tennessee
10 Cincinnati Levi Jones T Arizona State
11 Indianapolis Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse
12 Arizona Wendell Bryant DT Wisconsin
13 New Orleans Donte' Stallworth WR Tennessee
14 N.Y. Giants Jeremy Shockey TE Miami
15 Tennessee Albert Haynesworth DT TennesseeBryant McKinnie hasn't been all that great for Minnesota either, and isn't Wendell Bryant out of the league already?

jspchief
03-11-2006, 12:47 PM
Now why didnt we draft Roy Williams?

can anyone remind me?Because Woods and Wesley didn't look like they sucked at the time.

milkman
03-11-2006, 12:49 PM
Now why didnt we draft Roy Williams?

can anyone remind me?

Safety was considered the one position of strength on the Chiefs D at the time.

SLAG
03-11-2006, 12:52 PM
Because Woods and Wesley didn't look like they sucked at the time.
Safety was considered the one position of strength on the Chiefs D at the time.

Hindsight is 20 /20 Hunh

milkman
03-11-2006, 12:54 PM
Hindsight is 20 /20 Hunh

I don't know.

Let's ask the Chiefs D, who almost always have the offense's hinds in sight.

SLAG
03-11-2006, 12:56 PM
I don't know.

Let's ask the Chiefs D, who almost always have the offense's hinds in sight.


ROFL ROFL

Right as Tiki Runs right over them

TEX
03-11-2006, 02:27 PM
I don't know.

Let's ask the Chiefs D, who almost always have the offense's hinds in sight.


ROFL :clap:

Coach
03-11-2006, 02:34 PM
Hmm.. I honestly think Harrington is the bigger bust than Sims IMHO.

Tribal Warfare
03-11-2006, 02:49 PM
Hmm.. I honestly think Harrington is the bigger bust than Sims IMHO.


Does it really matter? The player's haven't lived up to expectations by a longshot.