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ZootedGranny
07-05-2005, 09:27 AM
I'm in a keeper league where you keep 4 players, so the majority of the top tier guys are taken. I draft 2nd overall in this league, and I'm weighing my options on who I should take. Setup is QB/2 RBs/3 WRs/1 TE/K/DEF

My squad:

QB Trent Green
RB Tiki Barber
RB Duce Staley
WR Randy Moss

Of the players left, these are the top guys I see that aren't claimed, and will be available to draft. The draft is not a snake draft, so I will have the 2nd pick of the 2nd round as well:

In no order:

Clinton Portis
Julius Jones
Kevin Barlow
Warrick Dunn

Javon Walker
Hines Ward
Darrell Jackson
Darren Bennet
Chris Chambers
Laverneus Coles
Eric Moulds
Jerry Porter

Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
Todd Heap


I'm not completely sold on my RBs, so I was thinking of grabbing a back, and then possibly a TE with my 2nd pick, or a guy like Ward or Walker, if he's still there. My question is, is that the right tactic, or should I take the top WR or TE, and then grab a 2nd tier RB with my 2nd pick, and hope he outperforms Staley (which as I'm typing this, seems more likely)?

CanadianChief
07-05-2005, 09:32 AM
I'd definitely go with Portis or Jones. They should both have good years. Get them both if you can...The Bus will steal all of Staley's TD's and I'm still not a Tiki fan.

TRR
07-05-2005, 09:36 AM
I would go with Clinton Portis as well. None of the WR's really jump off the screen at me, but you could arguably have the best FF TE in Tony Gonzalez. Sometimes the TE position really can make a difference.

Mile High Mania
07-05-2005, 09:38 AM
RBs are gold and while you have Tiki and Staley, you're not over flowing with talent. Staley is a more likely #3 RB in my opinion. I don't know how valued TEs really are in your league and even though you have to start one, I don't think I would spend my first pick (or my second pick) on a TE.

Forget Barlow ... don't even consider him as I see nothing but continued failure from the guy. Their offense is going to be more miss than hit this year and I expect rookie Frank Gore to push Barlow for serious time.

I would select Julius over Portis, only b/c I think both have the potential to be 1,300 yard 10-12 TD RBs this season and Julius (in my opinion) is on the better offense.

Parcells will ride JJ early and often, esp with the less than mobile Bledsoe behind center. I think JJ and Barber would be a great 1-2 punch - hell, Portis and Barber would be a sweet 1-2 with Staley a respectable #3.

Looking at your 2nd pick... if a guy like Walker is still there, he is a hell of a selection. Walker is a legit #1 fantasy starter, so if you can get him as your 1-2 punch with Moss... along with Barber, JJ and Trent Green... that's the makings of a sweet team.

Sure, you'll miss out on Gonzo or Heap most likely, but you could take the best available TE in R3 like a Witten possibly or Dallas Clark. If they aren't there, then you could hold off and select a tier 2 TE in R4-6. I don't know which TEs are out there beyond what you have listed, but guys like Pollard in DET, McMichaels in MIA, Putzier in DEN, Troupe in TN or possibly Jolley in NYJ... these are guys that could be legit 650 yard 5-7 TD producers.

Don't "over value" the TE spot just to pair Gonzo with Green. Leave your heart out of the draft room. You'll likely get more bang for the buck with a top 10 RB and top 5 WR with your first 2 picks.

Mile High Mania
07-05-2005, 09:42 AM
I would go with Clinton Portis as well. None of the WR's really jump off the screen at me, but you could arguably have the best FF TE in Tony Gonzalez. Sometimes the TE position really can make a difference.

I dunno ... Walker, Ward and Jackson should each have huge seasons. Gonzo is a great TE and solid in Fantasy Football.

Gonzo should be good for 900+ yards and 8-11 TDs which puts him among a group of maybe 3 TEs that can give you that production.

Guys like Walker, Ward and Jackson can likely bring you another 300 yards and upward of 3-4 more TDs during the season.

If you take a lower tier TE, you're maybe giving up 200-250 yards and possibly 3-4 TDs. It's a tough call and sounds like it could be a wash when you consider how deep the receiver talent pool is... but getting the chance to have Walker and Moss would be almost too huge for me to pass up.

Mile High Mania
07-05-2005, 09:47 AM
Oh ... regarding TE ... keep your eye on the rookie with the Steelers, Heath Miller. They are going to "open up the offense" and if this kid adjusts well, he could blow it out.

ZootedGranny
07-05-2005, 09:53 AM
Completely agree on Heath Miller. In fact, I had just backed out of posting about Miller to see if anyone had posted since I started my reply, because I think he's going to be a great TE. Maybe along the lines of Witten, especially since Burress is gone, and their offense will open up with a capable TE there.

As for Portis/Jones, I actually favor Jones, but the only thing that give me pause is I believe Portis will step it up a bit this season, and while not getting 1800 yards, I think his TD prodcution will improve.

ZootedGranny
07-05-2005, 09:59 AM
What do you guys think about the rest of the rookie class? I'm not sold on any of the rookie WRs aside from maybe Clayton having any sort of notable production. Even with Daunte being able to throw it to any spot on the field, I don't like Williamson, and Braylon has nobody to throw it to him. Roddy White, I'm also not impressed with.

The RBs however, I really like JJ Arrington, as well as Cadillac and Benson. I give the nod to them over Brown, mainly because of the line Ronnie has to run behind.

Mile High Mania
07-05-2005, 10:00 AM
Sounds like Gibbs and crew have figured out how best to "use" Portis, so he definitely has the potential to produce like he did in Denver... only thing is I'm not really a fan of the rest of the offense at this point.

Julius is surrounded with more weapons. In the final 7 games of 2004, he rushed for 803 yards and 7 TDs. Sure, some of the defenses were weak... but, I see no reason not to expect more of the same.

Dallas should also have a better line this season.

There's really not a bad call between JJ and Portis, it just comes down to your gut and which is the least risky proposition.

Mile High Mania
07-05-2005, 10:06 AM
It's hard to expect much from rookie WRs... Williams in DET could do well. I think Williamson will have ups and downs, but nice production. Roddy White... I dunno, just not sold on the ATL passing game until Price or Jenkins... somebody steps up. Will it be the rookie? I doubt it.

Rookie RBs... I'm in line with everyone else on the JJ Arrington bandwagon. That guy should do great things. I also like Benson best among the top 3 that were selected.

If I were stack ranking the 4 rookies for Fantasy ... I'd say Benson, Arrington, Williams and Brown. There are some other guys like Gore and Shelton in Carolina that have nice upside, but I wouldn't expect much from either too early.

Shelton is a guy to track in case Foster and Davis get injured or falter. Fason is one of the backs in the mix for the Vikings to track as well. Although, I personally try to avoid RBs from MIN, ATL and recently Denver... just hard to figure out which one is going to be "the guy".

Iowanian
07-05-2005, 10:23 AM
Hands down, on that list, given your RB situation, I take Julius Jones. Dallas has a better Oline than Washington(Portis), and with Bledsoe, Parcells will run the ball alot to protect him. Jones showed he can run with power and is capable of racking up some TDs....Portis is flashy, but playing with an unproven QB, iffy Oline....

I agree completely with MhM that if Walker is available with your 2nd-2nd pick...he's your man.

KevB
07-05-2005, 10:31 AM
Rookie RBs... I'm in line with everyone else on the JJ Arrington bandwagon. That guy should do great things. I also like Benson best among the top 3 that were selected.

If I were stack ranking the 4 rookies for Fantasy ... I'd say Benson, Arrington, Williams and Brown. There are some other guys like Gore and Shelton in Carolina that have nice upside, but I wouldn't expect much from either too early.

I think you're selling Ronnie Brown short. In a performance league, I think he could be very good. He doesn't have much mileage due to shared time in college, so he should be durable. Miami will not only hand him the ball, I think they'll throw to him quite a bit as he's a very good receiver. I haven't decided how I'll slot the four backs yet, but I think Ronnie could be at the top of the heap, despite the line and QB.

ct
07-05-2005, 11:04 AM
You've got to find a better keeper option than Staley. Portis or JJ would be awesome keepers, and you're assured of one of the 2. Personally I like JJ better.

If Gonzo is there in the 2nd, I'd take him, but not in the 1st(you really need better RBs). Getting a heads up on that position is better than your 2nd WR at that point. WRs are deep once you get past the top5-8 I think. Walker, Ward, and Jackson are all around or close to that area, but Gonzo over the next TE is a better value than those 3 WRs over the next level.

ct
07-05-2005, 11:15 AM
What do you guys think about the rest of the rookie class? I'm not sold on any of the rookie WRs aside from maybe Clayton having any sort of notable production. Even with Daunte being able to throw it to any spot on the field, I don't like Williamson, and Braylon has nobody to throw it to him. Roddy White, I'm also not impressed with.

The RBs however, I really like JJ Arrington, as well as Cadillac and Benson. I give the nod to them over Brown, mainly because of the line Ronnie has to run behind.

I'm also not too excited about the rookie WRs. Late round flyer would be OK with me, but they'll be gone by them. Edwards, Williamson, Williams, Clayton, none of them have truly favorable situations, either they look to start on a bad offense, or will be part-timers in better offenses. One guy I am keeping a sleeper eye on is Brandon Jones in Tennessee. Again though, late round flyer only.

The RBs are a little more enticing. JJ Arrington is in a perfect situation, and really could excel this year. I'm personally staying away from Benson and Williams for now, until I know a lot more about the committee breakdown. Ronnie Brown could do well, not too concerned about Ricky. It's that offense as a whole, the line in particular, that make me shy away too early. I'm definitely keeping an eye on Shelton as a sleeper. Between Davis and Foster's injuries, and Shelton has been getting some rave reviews from mini-camps, he could be a steal. I do see Gore getting good PT, but how much is that worth in SanFran? Not much, IMO.

eazyb81
07-05-2005, 11:46 AM
The smart pick would be to take Portis or Jones with your 1st pick. Both players are primed for big seasons and your RB quality is mediocre (I think Tiki Barber will have a poor season). If you draft Jones, make sure you handcuff him to ATrain later on in the draft, Juice has some durability issues.

I am a believer in waiting until later on to take a TE. Especially this year, because I think Gates and Gonzo will have trouble topping the previous season's stats. Some good TE sleepers are Jeb Putzier and Doug Jolley, Putzier will be the #1 TE in Shanahan's TE-friendly offense, and Jolley will be utilized big-time in Mike Heimerdinger's new spread offense. The Jets gave up a #1 pick this year and the chance to draft Heath Miller, so that tells me that they have big plans for Jolley this year. Herm Edwards was quoted as saying he expects Jolley to have around 70 receptions this year.

patteeu
07-05-2005, 12:16 PM
I'd definitely go with Portis or Jones. They should both have good years. Get them both if you can...The Bus will steal all of Staley's TD's and I'm still not a Tiki fan.

I agree. I'd go with Jones unless he's taken first overall and then I'd go with Portis.

Mile High Mania
07-05-2005, 12:41 PM
I think you're selling Ronnie Brown short. In a performance league, I think he could be very good. He doesn't have much mileage due to shared time in college, so he should be durable. Miami will not only hand him the ball, I think they'll throw to him quite a bit as he's a very good receiver. I haven't decided how I'll slot the four backs yet, but I think Ronnie could be at the top of the heap, despite the line and QB.

I could be selling him short, but there are more questions across the board in Miami and what the other rookies are facing with their teams. Who knows if Ricky will be in situation to affect Brown's playing time, but questions on the line, QB and receiver are still there. Chambers and McMichaels are good, but that's it.

Williams has Pittman... Benson has Jones... so it's hard to say for sure today (first week of July) how those 2 will position themselves with the veterans pushing them. It would be wise for CHI and Tampa to use both, so that smells of RBBC to some degree.

Once the drafts roll around in late August... I still expect Brown to go first in most leagues, but honestly... Arrington could be the best points producer in 2005. Now, long term - sure, my stack rankings would likely change.

I think Brown could have a hell of a career, along with the other 3. However, unless your drafting for long-term keeper prospects, you take the least risky guys that can help your team. So, if I'm set with my first 2 RBs ... it would be tough for me to take Williams or Brown ahead of Benson and Arrington right now.

Mile High Mania
07-05-2005, 12:44 PM
WRs are deep once you get past the top5-8 I think. Walker, Ward, and Jackson are all around or close to that area, but Gonzo over the next TE is a better value than those 3 WRs over the next level.

There's a lot of merit to what you typed, especially this year. The passing game is now so great for many teams and that means more WRs will become big producers. However, I think Walker (barring any crazy holdout or injury to Favre) is on the cusp of breaking into that consistent top 8 production level. I'm not as sold at all on Ward or Jackson being in that group, so yes comparing those two to the "next best" group of receivers is accurate.

ZootedGranny
07-05-2005, 02:52 PM
Here's a little twist to add to it.

One of the guys in the league has kept 3 RBs: McGahee, Dominick Davis, & Lamont Jordan.

He's likely not going to give up McGahee, but what about trading my 2nd overall for Davis? The only downer I see is that while I'd be getting a back, I'd end up helping him out as he'd still have two strong backs.

patteeu
07-05-2005, 02:58 PM
Here's a little twist to add to it.

One of the guys in the league has kept 3 RBs: McGahee, Dominick Davis, & Lamont Jordan.

He's likely not going to give up McGahee, but what about trading my 2nd overall for Davis? The only downer I see is that while I'd be getting a back, I'd end up helping him out as he'd still have two strong backs.

I don't think you'd be getting anything out of that trade. I'd rather have J. Jones than D. Davis anyway.

KevB
07-05-2005, 03:24 PM
I could be selling him short, but there are more questions across the board in Miami and what the other rookies are facing with their teams. Who knows if Ricky will be in situation to affect Brown's playing time, but questions on the line, QB and receiver are still there. Chambers and McMichaels are good, but that's it.

Williams has Pittman... Benson has Jones... so it's hard to say for sure today (first week of July) how those 2 will position themselves with the veterans pushing them. It would be wise for CHI and Tampa to use both, so that smells of RBBC to some degree.

Once the drafts roll around in late August... I still expect Brown to go first in most leagues, but honestly... Arrington could be the best points producer in 2005. Now, long term - sure, my stack rankings would likely change.

I think Brown could have a hell of a career, along with the other 3. However, unless your drafting for long-term keeper prospects, you take the least risky guys that can help your team. So, if I'm set with my first 2 RBs ... it would be tough for me to take Williams or Brown ahead of Benson and Arrington right now.

The reason I think Brown is underestimated is the number of touches he'll get compared to the other players. Ricky is a non-factor this year, period. Suspension and 205 lbs. writes him off in 2005. Brown will carry the load on the ground, and will catch quite a few passes out of the backfield. Their O-Line is suspect, but Chambers and Booker with McMichael are decent WRs.

Benson has TJ and a shaky QB situation, Cadillac has a shaky O-Line and Pittman and Alstott to contend with. Arrington has a shaky QB and Marcel Shipp, who is being touted as the short yardage back in Arizona.

I would suggest that today, Brown is in line for the most touches. Thus, he's probably first on my list right now. Obviously, as you said, much can change between now and September.

DTLB58
07-05-2005, 03:42 PM
I am really high on Julius Jones for this year and years to come.

If you can get Gonzalez then in the next round go for it. There are only a few top TE's (although this position is getting better in the fantasy world) but there are a lot of WR's to chose from.

FYI on Witten. I had him last year and he did great until Jones got going and then Julius got all the touches in the red zone. From week 11-16 Witten didn't score. He did have a big week 17 but a lot of leagues have stopped playing by then.

Mile High Mania
07-05-2005, 03:43 PM
I think Miami's QB situation is less stable then Chicago or Arizona, but that's just my opinion.

Regarding the trade... I'd still take Portis or JJ over Davis. I wouldn't do it.

Digital Takawira
07-07-2005, 11:03 PM
yeah, zooted needs all the help he can get if he's going to beat me this year. my keepers of culpepper, deuce mcallister, chris brown and steven jackson are going to destroy his soul. even though his team name is pretty clutch, its not messing with the StrzelczykDeathWish.

if only he didn't pick right before me, i might have a chance at tony g.

regald
07-08-2005, 01:44 AM
Do not forget Barlow. He could one of the best value picks in the draft. He has potential. He had a bad year last year but he's proven. If you can get him later in the draft, he could definitely prove to be a steal.

Julious Jones is being the most hyped player this offseason. As of now, he's unproven. It's up to you to determine whether he's the second coming of Priest Holmes.

Personally, I think he'll do well, but I'm not keeping my hopes up for stardom. I won't expect more than 1300+ yards and 5 TD's. That would be a solid year for him.

Portis may be a value pick as well, but remember last year, he's also a gamble. The name of the game is consistancy, you can afford to take gambles later in the draft, with the first pick you want the most consistant player and it should be a runningback.

To be honest, you're pretty screwed with the remaining running backs. You didn't mention whether Tatum Bell was availible. If you pick in the second round, I think a running back like Carnell Williams or JJ Arrington would be worth the risk. You can never not have enough running backs.

Tony Gonzalez is the most proven and consistant of the 3 TE's, your a Chiefs fan too, so you have to take him if all of your RB choices are eventually taken. Don't draft a TE unless it's at a reasonable slot. You'll be able to pick up free agent TE's that other people dont have their eyes on. That includes Teyo Johnson, Jeb Putzier, and Heath Miller.

I actually drafted Teyo last year but he was hampered with injuries as a rookie. He also didn't surpass Doug Jolley on the depth chart but Teyo's supposedly improved and Jolley was traded. Jeb Putzier is working with the former coach for Antonio Gates. I had him last year and he was consistant for a stretch, I always read that he was supposed to catch on, but it never happened. I've got some decent hopes for him this season, add to that he's working with Gates' old coach, he should do well, and who the heck has heard of him!? Probably just me.

Another tip: Load up on some 2nd and 3rd string wide receivers. You never know who goes down, chances are one of your starters, if not two, will go down for the season. Muhsin Muhammed didn't catch on until Week 9 and he came out of nowhere. Always roam the waiver wire, especially watching the Denver running back situation.

I almost mortgaged my team last year after Quentin Griffin's performance against the Chiefs. Luckily the guy rejected my trade, because he went down the next week and out came Reuban Droughns. Maurice Clarett is probably going to get the chance to start if Tatum goes down.

Rausch
07-08-2005, 01:54 AM
This would be the first year that the safe pick (QB or RB) is anything but in the 1st round.

League wide there are question marks at WR and HB. Too many teams are using 3 WR sets and going more and more with the passing game.

A solid TE like Gonzo, Heap, Shockey, or Gates (SD) could be the 8 pts. per game difference...

ZootedGranny
07-09-2005, 03:33 PM
Hilariously enough, another team joined, took over the keepers of Javon Walker, Clinton Portis, & Hines Ward. That, and the guy that has the first pick in the draft, and a RB stable of Rudi Johnson and Fred Taylor took Julius Jones with his first pick.

Luckily the draft isn't realtime, so I have some time to think of different avenues, but the outlook is bleak.

DTLB58
07-09-2005, 04:11 PM
Do not forget Barlow. He could one of the best value picks in the draft. He has potential. He had a bad year last year but he's proven. If you can get him later in the draft, he could definitely prove to be a steal.

Julious Jones is being the most hyped player this offseason. As of now, he's unproven. It's up to you to determine whether he's the second coming of Priest Holmes.

Personally, I think he'll do well, but I'm not keeping my hopes up for stardom. I won't expect more than 1300+ yards and 5 TD's. That would be a solid year for him.
Portis may be a value pick as well, but remember last year, he's also a gamble. The name of the game is consistancy, you can afford to take gambles later in the draft, with the first pick you want the most consistant player and it should be a runningback.

To be honest, you're pretty screwed with the remaining running backs. You didn't mention whether Tatum Bell was availible. If you pick in the second round, I think a running back like Carnell Williams or JJ Arrington would be worth the risk. You can never not have enough running backs.

Tony Gonzalez is the most proven and consistant of the 3 TE's, your a Chiefs fan too, so you have to take him if all of your RB choices are eventually taken. Don't draft a TE unless it's at a reasonable slot. You'll be able to pick up free agent TE's that other people dont have their eyes on. That includes Teyo Johnson, Jeb Putzier, and Heath Miller.

I actually drafted Teyo last year but he was hampered with injuries as a rookie. He also didn't surpass Doug Jolley on the depth chart but Teyo's supposedly improved and Jolley was traded. Jeb Putzier is working with the former coach for Antonio Gates. I had him last year and he was consistant for a stretch, I always read that he was supposed to catch on, but it never happened. I've got some decent hopes for him this season, add to that he's working with Gates' old coach, he should do well, and who the heck has heard of him!? Probably just me.

Another tip: Load up on some 2nd and 3rd string wide receivers. You never know who goes down, chances are one of your starters, if not two, will go down for the season. Muhsin Muhammed didn't catch on until Week 9 and he came out of nowhere. Always roam the waiver wire, especially watching the Denver running back situation.

I almost mortgaged my team last year after Quentin Griffin's performance against the Chiefs. Luckily the guy rejected my trade, because he went down the next week and out came Reuban Droughns. Maurice Clarett is probably going to get the chance to start if Tatum goes down.

How can you say 5 T.D.'s would be a solid season for him? He had 7 last year in only 8 games :hmmm: :shake:

This guy is set to be a fantasy stud!

Miles
07-09-2005, 04:32 PM
Hilariously enough, another team joined, took over the keepers of Javon Walker, Clinton Portis, & Hines Ward. That, and the guy that has the first pick in the draft, and a RB stable of Rudi Johnson and Fred Taylor took Julius Jones with his first pick.

Luckily the draft isn't realtime, so I have some time to think of different avenues, but the outlook is bleak.

Gonzo looks like it may be the best selection then. Some of the WRs left are solid but Gonzo could match their production and you get the benifit of not having to rely on diging up a productive TE.

Are their any other RBs available such as the rookies?

ZootedGranny
07-09-2005, 04:41 PM
All of the rookie RBs are going to be available, but the only starting backs left are DeShaun Foster (or whoever else steps into the carousel in Carolina), Barlow, Dunn, whoever starts in Minnesota, and the trash heap in Cleveland. The rest are backups, and Travis Henry, who may or may not instantly be the man in Jacksonville if he ends up being traded there.

I'm in trade talks with a few different squads, hopefully something can get worked out.

Miles
07-09-2005, 04:54 PM
All of the rookie RBs are going to be available, but the only starting backs left are DeShaun Foster (or whoever else steps into the carousel in Carolina), Barlow, Dunn, whoever starts in Minnesota, and the trash heap in Cleveland. The rest are backups, and Travis Henry, who may or may not instantly be the man in Jacksonville if he ends up being traded there.

I'm in trade talks with a few different squads, hopefully something can get worked out.

Cadillac would probably be my preferance of the RB's left. Though I havent read anything about what Tampa is planning to do with Pittman yet since he may leach some carries.

Looks like new guy kind of screwed you a bit.

regald
07-09-2005, 05:12 PM
I don't really care if he gets 5 TD's, I was trying to be correct in yardage.

Eddie George didn't get in the endzone but once every 2 or 3 games during the first half of the season. Julious Jones had a strech when he scored 3 in one game and they rode him through the finally.

That's not the say they are going to do the same. Anthony Thomas (A-Train) is going to steal some carries when Jones rests, but truth be told, we don't know how many carries Jones will get or if he'll be healthy. We don't know if Bledsoe's top priority is going to be to throw in the endzone or to pound the rock.

Each team's different every year. Don't mortgage everything on Julious just yet. Just remember what happened with people who took Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, and Kevan Barlow high.

Complete busts.

Mile High Mania
07-09-2005, 06:53 PM
Other than being in the league longer, I'm not certain that Barlow is any more proven than Jones. If you would take Barlow over Jones... I want in your league.

I predict that by game 5, Barlow will be getting serious pressure from Frank Gore. And by week 5, Jones will be working on his third 120+ yard game with roughly 4-5 TDs under his belt. The guy was injured for half the season last year and came back with a bang.

Portis wasn't a "complete bust". He had 1,300 yards rushing and I think 5 TDs... yes, the TDs were horrible for a R1 pick, but complete bust he was not. The Redskins have figured out how best to use him, so the team sitting there with the 10th pick will have a nice gift sitting there.

Mile High Mania
07-09-2005, 06:59 PM
I don't really care if he gets 5 TD's, I was trying to be correct in yardage.

Eddie George didn't get in the endzone but once every 2 or 3 games during the first half of the season. Julious Jones had a strech when he scored 3 in one game and they rode him through the finally.

That's not the say they are going to do the same. Anthony Thomas (A-Train) is going to steal some carries when Jones rests, but truth be told, we don't know how many carries Jones will get or if he'll be healthy. We don't know if Bledsoe's top priority is going to be to throw in the endzone or to pound the rock.

Each team's different every year. Don't mortgage everything on Julious just yet. Just remember what happened with people who took Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, and Kevan Barlow high.

Complete busts.

Ok... comparing George and Julius is kinda crazy. Eddie is old and slow, JJ is young and dynamic. You know he'll be healthy b/c he was healthy when the season ended. Can he avoid re-injuring the shoulder? That's a good questoin and solid reason to draft A-Train. A-Train won't won't steal enough carries to affect JJ's numbers.

The Cowboys will pound the rock because that's what Parcells does, JJ can do it and Bledsoe isn't mobile and needs a stable ground attack.

As stated earlier, owners didn't get the "BANG" they expected out of Portis, but Lewis only played in 12 games... there's no real reason to think he is a risk this season.

I will say what I said last year about Barlow... he's a stretch for a #3 RB on a fantasy team. Inconsistent and the team is going to be poor offensively, plus Gore will get time.

ZootedGranny
07-09-2005, 08:47 PM
I've been offered a couple of trades, but nothing that jumps out.

One guy is offering Lamont Jordan and a draft pick for Moss, while another is offering Tatum Bell, Michael Clayton/Isaac Bruce and a draft pick.

DAMN YOU FANTASY FOOTBALL, YOU CONSUME MY MIND!

regald
07-09-2005, 09:39 PM
Any player who was injured the season before is a risk.

That means Jamal Lewis is a risk. I think he's due a good season, as he should any healthy season, but he's a risk nonetheless.

The Cowboys didn't draft A-Train, and yes, he will take away from his carries. Julious Jones would get 34 carries a game without George touching the ball, the whole reason for acquiring Anthony was so Julious would be able to rest more, George was ineffective.

Nor is Julious Jones Eddie George, but the point made is that Parcells run game isn't a consistant threat in the red zone. He may go 2 or 3 games without a rushing touchdown. They relied on Julious because he gave them a spark.

As for Clinton Portis being a 10th pick surprise, I'd be suprised if he's left around then, and he's still a risk at the #5 or #6 slot. He was drafted around that time last year, try 1300 yards and the 3rd most attempts in Redskins history, yet his yards per carry were his worst. The run game was terrible for the Redskins, I don't know that it's going to get any better.

You can't say "He'll be better utilized". If that were true, he would've done that towards the end of the season. Portis is a one hole, cut back runningback. That's how he was brought into the league, he can change obviously, but last year showed you what his production will be like. If you want to draft portis and have him create a similar season, go right ahead. Don't EXPECT him to do better because someone thinks he'll be better utilized.

regald
07-09-2005, 09:43 PM
Zooted, that Tatum Bell trade may be worth it.

Right now, Tatum is the favorite to win the coveted running back spot. That means he's going to have many 150-200 rushing yard games and he'll be consistant. Mike Anderson and others may steal carries, but he's going to be consistant.

The one problem with Tatum is injuries. He couldn't get through them last year, can he get through them this year. Last year, Questin Griffen looked like Tatum, then he played poorly and was injured, so you don't know what happened.

I think Michael Clayton is a stud, if you have the chance to get Tatum Bell and Michael Clayton, on top of a draft pick, it may be worth a look.

Some "Fantasy" experts expect Tatum Bell to be amongst the top 5 in the league in terms of fantasy points from a running back. I follow the Denver Backfield, put it may be too much of a risk for someone so unproven. Moss probably won't go down, it may be 50/50 for Tatum.

regald
07-09-2005, 09:45 PM
Another Tip, as if you wanted to read more.

Stick with your guns, I spent 5 hours a day thinking about trades last year, every trade backfired, even if it was a steal, you could get screwed because of injuries.

Unless its a diamond in the rough type deal, which your friends wouldn't approve of anyway, then it's not worth it.

Stick with the guys you drafted.

ZootedGranny
07-09-2005, 09:57 PM
That's been my general rule since I started doing fantasy football. In the 4 years I've been playing FF, the one trade I did was trading away Terrell Owens for Travis Henry & Tony Gonzalez a couple of years ago, which worked out wonderfully.

However, I've never had a backfield as sorry as this one with no real outlets to improve aside from trading. I have no problem keeping Moss, but Duce Staley doesn't really instill confidence in my squad. My only real chance is taking a risk on an unproven back early in the draft while everyone around me grabs players that will definitely contribute.

That said, I'm likely blowing it out of proportion, considering my RB corps is not the worst in my league.

Mile High Mania
07-10-2005, 08:36 AM
Regald, I was suggesting that it would be wise for fantasy owners (that have Jones) to draft A-Train.

ZootedGranny
07-27-2005, 03:42 PM
Update:

The people in the league decided a 4 player keeper was too much, so they reduced it to 3. I traded Moss for Jamal Lewis, swapping a couple of picks in the draft, but keeping my first rounder.

The first pick in the draft was Julius Jones, so I took Terrell Owens with the 2nd overall. The draft isn't realtime, and my 2nd rounder is coming up.

As of now, my squad:

QB Trent Green
RB Jamal Lewis
RB Tiki Barber
WR Terrell Owens

I'm thinking of going TE in the 2nd because the WR corps is so deep.

Mile High Mania
07-28-2005, 01:36 PM
Update:

The people in the league decided a 4 player keeper was too much, so they reduced it to 3. I traded Moss for Jamal Lewis, swapping a couple of picks in the draft, but keeping my first rounder.

The first pick in the draft was Julius Jones, so I took Terrell Owens with the 2nd overall. The draft isn't realtime, and my 2nd rounder is coming up.

As of now, my squad:

QB Trent Green
RB Jamal Lewis
RB Tiki Barber
WR Terrell Owens

I'm thinking of going TE in the 2nd because the WR corps is so deep.

I'm not sure what you did or if your pick has come yet, but I would advise against going TE. Sure, Gates and Gonzo are tops on everyone's list, but you can get a killer WR or that great #3 RB with this pick and still get a guy like Dallas Clark or Crumpler a few rounds from now. Don't undervalue Jason Witten either.

I just wouldn't go TE at this point... yes, WR is deep, but I wouldn't forego one of the top guys (depending on what is available now) for a TE.

Have you picked?

ZootedGranny
07-28-2005, 01:44 PM
No, I have yet to pick. There are two people in front of me before its my turn again.

Witten (who I wanted to grab) was just taken anyways, so that goes out the door.

Top 20 or so WRs left:
Drew Bennett, Titans
Chris Chambers, Dolphins
Donald Driver, Packers
Nate Burleson, Vikings
Mushin Muhammad, Bears
Eric Moulds, Bills
Isaac Bruce, Rams
Joey Porter, Raiders
Roy Williams, Lions
Derrick Mason, Ravens
Jimmy Smith, Jaguars
Ashley Lelie, Broncos
Lee Evans, Bills
Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
Rod Smith, Broncos
Deion Branch, Patriots
Brandon Stokley, Colts
Plaxico Burress, Giants
Santana Moss, Redskins
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
Keyshawn Johnson, Cowboys

Top 15 or so RBs left:

Chris Brown, Titans
Duce Staley, Steelers
Kevan Barlow, 49ers
Warrick Dunn, Falcons
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
Carnell Williams, Buccaneers
Cedric Benson, Bears
Jimmy Smith, Jaguars
Fred Taylor, Jaguars
J.J. Arrington, Cardinals
Ruben Droughns, Browns
Jerome Bettis, Steelers
T.J. Duckett, Falcons
Marshall Faulk, Rams
Larry Johnson, Chiefs

Mile High Mania
07-28-2005, 01:55 PM
No, I have yet to pick. There are two people in front of me before its my turn again.

Witten (who I wanted to grab) was just taken anyways, so that goes out the door.

Top 20 or so WRs left:
Drew Bennett, Titans
Chris Chambers, Dolphins
Donald Driver, Packers
Nate Burleson, Vikings
Mushin Muhammad, Bears
Eric Moulds, Bills
Isaac Bruce, Rams
Joey Porter, Raiders
Roy Williams, Lions
Derrick Mason, Ravens
Jimmy Smith, Jaguars
Ashley Lelie, Broncos
Lee Evans, Bills
Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
Rod Smith, Broncos
Deion Branch, Patriots
Brandon Stokley, Colts
Plaxico Burress, Giants
Santana Moss, Redskins
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
Keyshawn Johnson, Cowboys

Top 15 or so RBs left:

Chris Brown, Titans
Duce Staley, Steelers
Kevan Barlow, 49ers
Warrick Dunn, Falcons
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
Carnell Williams, Buccaneers
Cedric Benson, Bears
Jimmy Smith, Jaguars
Fred Taylor, Jaguars
J.J. Arrington, Cardinals
Ruben Droughns, Browns
Jerome Bettis, Steelers
T.J. Duckett, Falcons
Marshall Faulk, Rams
Larry Johnson, Chiefs

Ok, you list Staley as availble and as one of your starting 2... was that a typo? I do not trust Staley as a #2 and would seriously look at JJ Arrington with your next pick.

If you pass on RB next, you're going to be SOL very quickly on your #3 spot and I would already question the consistency with Staley as your #2.

Iowanian
07-28-2005, 01:57 PM
In your position, I'd probably take Porter, or I'd look down the list to see if Larry Fitz was available.

Solidify your WR position, or pick up one of the young backs.....I'd lean Arrington or Benson I think.

Mile High Mania
07-28-2005, 01:57 PM
Ok, you list Staley as availble and as one of your starting 2... was that a typo? I do not trust Staley as a #2 and would seriously look at JJ Arrington with your next pick.

If you pass on RB next, you're going to be SOL very quickly on your #3 spot and I would already question the consistency with Staley as your #2.


My bad... I missed that last one about the trade. You have Lewis and Barber, with Green and Owens. I would still seriously look at Arrington as the RB pool is getting shallow.

Mile High Mania
07-28-2005, 01:59 PM
In your position, I'd probably take Porter, or I'd look down the list to see if Larry Fitz was available.

Solidify your WR position, or pick up one of the young backs.....I'd lean Arrington or Benson I think.

I agree that WR is a concern here, but I think Arrington is the pick to be made. Then, with 3 RBs - Green and Owens, he can spend the next two rounds on WR/TE.

Iowanian
07-28-2005, 02:01 PM
I'd guess Staley is on his "available" list because he said that they'd decided that 3 was enough to keep, and he released Staley.


I'd look hard at Arrington or Benson in his spot. My thinking on Porter is, first of all, alot of people had him as a #1 last year.....this year, with Moss, he'll be drawing the #2 Cb. I think he'll really benefit from Moss being on the other side and put up some big numbers. Porter and Owens would be a hell of a WR Corps........but you're right, I didn't get loaded up on RBs last year and got crushed, whereas the year before I was top 2 in every league.

Mile High Mania
07-28-2005, 02:04 PM
I'd guess Staley is on his "available" list because he said that they'd decided that 3 was enough to keep, and he released Staley.


I'd look hard at Arrington or Benson in his spot. My thinking on Porter is, first of all, alot of people had him as a #1 last year.....this year, with Moss, he'll be drawing the #2 Cb. I think he'll really benefit from Moss being on the other side and put up some big numbers. Porter and Owens would be a hell of a WR Corps........but you're right, I didn't get loaded up on RBs last year and got crushed, whereas the year before I was top 2 in every league.

Ok - I didn't put 2 and 2 together on that one...

I totally agree on Porter. I would take the calculated risk here and grab a RB, hoping that Porter is there in the next round. I also didn't see Coles on that list of available WRs. If he's also out there, grab Porter then a guy like Coles (or Evans, Lelie, etc) and bam... a great trio of recievers.

ct
07-28-2005, 02:27 PM
Ok - I didn't put 2 and 2 together on that one...

I totally agree on Porter. I would take the calculated risk here and grab a RB, hoping that Porter is there in the next round. I also didn't see Coles on that list of available WRs. If he's also out there, grab Porter then a guy like Coles (or Evans, Lelie, etc) and bam... a great trio of recievers.

Boy I missed alot here!

Once again Brad, we're right on the same sheet. Porter really should slide until next round, and I agree he could be a huge value this year. But the RBs are fading fast, and there are lots of good WRs. Arrington is well down the list, but I love his potential, and believe it or not, he won't be there next round. He would definitely be my pick.

ZootedGranny
07-28-2005, 06:42 PM
A little bit of a risk, but yes, I took Arrington with my 2nd pick. I figure a guy like Lee Evans (who I really like last year) or any fringe 2nd tier TE may be there next round. At least now my RB corps is set with 3 starters.

The obvious WRs have been taken off of the board, but I think Porter will be gone before the end of this round.

My only hope is that a few of these QB-less squads start taking QBs.

Mile High Mania
07-28-2005, 06:51 PM
Don't freak out too badly... I think it is a sound pick, list the top WRs prior to your next pick. Hopefully, someone will be online to throw some ideas your way.

Who are the top 10 WRs on the board now and how many picks until you go next?

ZootedGranny
07-28-2005, 07:21 PM
Nah, I'm not too worried. My WR corps will be perfectly fine.

WRs left (not my rankings, but a list):

Roy Williams
Jimmy Smith
Donald Driver
Ashley Lelie
Rod Smith
Eddie Kennison
Isaac Bruce
Deion Branch
Keyshawn Johnson
Santana Moss
Muhsin Muhammad
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Eric Moulds
Jerry Porter
Lee Evans
Brandon Stokley
Justin McCareins
Joey Galloway
Terry Glenn
Derrick Mason
Keary Colbert
Keenan McCardell
Marcus Robinson
Donte' Stallworth
Tyrone Calico
Troy Williamson
Antonio Bryant
David Givens
Brandon Lloyd
Amani Toomer
Andre' Davis
Reggie Williams
Plaxico Burress
Charles Rogers
Samie Parker
Todd Pinkston
Jabar Gaffney
Ronald Curry
Marty Booker
Bobby Engram
Braylon Edwards
Antwaan Randle El
David Patten
Peerless Price

There are others left, but they're players like Jerome Pathon, Wayne Chrebet, most of the rookies.

7 picks until I go again...Cadillac was just taken as I posted. I figure worst case scenario, 5 WRs are taken before I pick. More likely 3 will be taken, leaving me in pretty good shape. Porter may be taken, but its possible he may fall.

Mile High Mania
07-28-2005, 08:19 PM
These are the receivers in "groups" that I would consider off that list you provided. The first group being the guys I would likely pick first if given the option.

I really like Porter and Williams. I think Porter and Williams have a chance at 1,300 yard season with upwards of 10 TDs. Smith, Bruce, Driver, Evans, Lelie, Smith and Burress could really all have similar production - near 1,110 receiving yards and 7+ TDs.

Solid #2 starters tied with Owens:
Jerry Porter
Roy Williams
Jimmy Smith
Isaac Bruce
Donald Driver

Decent #2 options, Evans and Lelie have most upside of this group:
Lee Evans
Ashley Lelie
Rod Smith
Plaxico Burress

I really don't know that I would consider these guys as strong #2 receivers in fantasy:
Eric Moulds
Deion Branch
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Derrick Mason
Keary Colbert
Antwaan Randle El

ZootedGranny
08-17-2005, 08:10 PM
Just an update:

The overall draft is wrapping up, and I'm done with my team. Here it is, including the round I drafted the players:

QB:
Trent Green (keeper)
Brian Griese (7)
HB:
Jamal Lewis (trade)
Tiki Barber (keeper)
JJ Arrington (2)
Larry Johnson (6)
WR:
Terrell Owens (1)
Jimmy Smith (3)
TJ Houshmandzadeh (5)
Brandon Lloyd (8)
Tyrone Calico (11)
Rod Gardner (13)
TE:
Randy McMichael (4)
Heath Miller (10)
K:
Jeff Wilkins (12)
DEF:
Carolina Panthers (9)

Overall, I'm happy with my team. The trade I made giving up Moss for Jamal Lewis will be great, as long as Owens sees the field (need some luck). Part of that trade was swapping picks in 3 rounds, and in those 3 rounds, a player I wanted was never snatched in front of me.

QB wise, I expect Green to perform on par with his past few seasons, and though I'm skeptical of Griese, my other choice, Delhomme, was taking 5 spots ahead of me. Hopefully I only need Griese for 1 week.

Arrington @ 2 hopefully works out as well as I hope it will, because that'd give me 3 solid starters, as well as Larry Johnson. Witten was my other thought @ that spot, but he was taken with the last pick in the 3rd round. I'm praying Barber doesn't fall into his pattern of sucking every other year.

My WR corps is my weakest spot. Owens should be a beast as long as he plays, and Smith is a consistent performer. The rest is suspect. I took Housh because I think the Bengals are primed to have a great season offensively, and at that point, I thought he was a better pick than Evans. I had Evans last year, and really liked him, but I'm weary of his numbers with Losman starting. Lloyd was the only starter left, and both Calico and Gardner were late round grabs that I think have a chance to put up solid numbers.

At TE, I had hoped to get someone better than McMichael, but Alge was taken the round previous, and I ranked McMichael higher than Eric Johnson or Dallas Clark. I am very glad that no one else was on the Heath Miller bandwagon, and was happy to grab him when I did. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up more numbers on a consistent basis than McMichael.