PDA

View Full Version : FFL Faceoff - Priest Holmes Upside/Downside


ct
07-13-2005, 07:52 AM
Not sure if this is a free article, or subscriber only.

*****

http://www.footballguys.com/05faceoff-HolmPr00.htm

Faceoff - RB Priest Holmes, Kansas City Chiefs

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted 7/12, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Priest Holmesí NFL seasons since 2002:

2002: 313/1615 yards (a 5.2 ypc average), with 21 TDs rushing; 70/672/3 receiving. 2003: 320/1420 yards (4.4 ypc) with 27 TDs; 74/690/0 receiving. 2004: 196/892 yards (4.6 ypc) with 14 TDs; 19/187/1 receiving (in only 8 games).

Holmes was the #12 fantasy RB in total points last season, and he only appeared in Ĺ the games! Letís talk about the reasons he missed the latter half of the season:

1). He injured his knee during the game vs. Tampa Bay, in week 9 of the 2004 season. The injury was a MCL sprain and it stayed tender for several weeks. Eventually, the sprain healed without surgical intervention.

2). At the time that Holmes was first injured, the Chiefs were 3-5. They were 3-8 three weeks later (when Holmes was initially expected back). Now, if you were coach Vermeil, with a veteran running back who can do what Priest Holmes can do, and had virtually no hope of making the playoffs in the current season would you A). rush him back into the lineup or B). allow him to fully recuperate you? K.C. went with B, and I donít blame them a bit. This way, Holmes has had plenty of time to get healthy again.

When coach Vermeil was asked what he expected from Holmes this season back in May, he responded ďOh, about 2,100 yards and 29 touchdowns.Ē Holmes, while acknowledging that heíll never play completely pain-free due to his hip and knee injuries, stated ďI definitely don't think I'll see less (playing time)Ē. (Topeka Capital-Journal article by Rick Dean, 5/21/05

Holmes has proven that he can come back from injury during his career, and he runs behind one of the finest run-blocking OLs in the NFL. Given his track record and the circumstances during last seasonís injury/rehabilitation, I think heíll be back at the top of the RB heap this year.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Downside - by Mike Brown

While Priest Holmes is possibly in the midst of the greatest stretch of fantasy football ever, donít let that cloud your judgment when drafting.

When Holmes plays, he can win your league almost by himself. His production per game is unmatched, and the pieces are in place for a repeat. Isnít this supposed to be the downside? Just wait, Iím getting there.

Despite the pros, the cons outweigh everything. First, there is injury risk. Some will tell you that that isnít huge. After all, all you have to do is handcuff him to Larry Johnson. Oh, thatís ALL? ALL you have to do is use a first rounder on Holmes, and then a fifth rounder on his handcuff (Johnson has an ADP of 5.09)? Count me out.

I realize the benefits to drafting both players. But the problem is how much itíd take (a fifth round pick, if I havenít mentioned that) to land LJ. The other owners in your league know Johnsonís value. They know whoever takes Holmes would part with a lot to secure LJ, because owning Holmes without Johnson is like wearing a bra with no straps. You need that support if you donít want everything to come crashing down. And thatís not even taking into account the possibility that Holmes stays healthy, the Chiefs reduce his workload to stay fresh, and Johnson provides just enough to dent Holmesí stats but never enough to warrant a fifth-round selection.

While others are filling their rosters with QB1s and WR1s in round five, youíll be busy making sure you have secured your RB4. You kill your depth at the expense of one stud. The alternatives to Holmes come without the exorbitant price tag of two top-5 picks. The key to winning isnít best player; itís the best team.


***********

So try to remain objective here. ROFL Where do you chime in on Priest's fantasy value?

Coach
07-13-2005, 07:54 AM
They know whoever takes Holmes would part with a lot to secure LJ, because owning Holmes without Johnson is like wearing a bra with no straps. You need that support if you donít want everything to come crashing down.

:hmmm:

Phobia
07-13-2005, 07:58 AM
It's a free article. Anybody who selects Johnson in the 5th is retarded, just like Mike Brown.

ct
07-13-2005, 08:08 AM
It's a free article. Anybody who selects Johnson in the 5th is retarded, just like Mike Brown.

Totally agree there. I'm in a 1-player keeper league, and Priest will be available since that owner is in love with Peyton Manning. We do have 1 expansion team, so they get to choose from all remaining players before the draft starts, and maybe that's Priest, don't know this guy at all yet.

If I get a high pick in round 1 and Priest is there, damn right I'm taking him. And you can bet for sure I'll be looking for LJ later, but no f-in way it's the 5th round. Personally, I'll accept the injury risk, with confidence I can build solid depth despite req. a handcuff.

Mile High Mania
07-13-2005, 08:12 AM
Yeah, I'd hate to have the #3 overall pick with LT and Alexander off the board... Holmes is too tempting to pass up, but I did this years ago with Marshal Faulk that high.

I don't know if I can trust Priest to be injury free... hell, even if he plays half a season, he's a stud, but there's a lot of risk and he's 32. Your R1 pick needs to be as "risk free" as possible.

I looked at Antsports and LJ has gone as early as Round 4 and as late as Round 11 in a lot of mocks, and his ADP is Round 5. I think if you take Priest, then you're going to to have to take LJ in rounds 5-7 to ensure you get him. Once you get into that round 5-6 range in most leagues, you're looking at RBBC players and key backups.

Yes, it's early, but it's great fantasy insurance. I think I would bypass on Holmes and take someone like McGahee. I'm not in the position in either of my leagues to have a top 6 pick this year, so thankfully I won't have that burden.

The killer is to have a repeat of 2004... greatness through 8 games and then struggling.

BigChiefFan
07-13-2005, 08:15 AM
Keep ****ing doubting Priest Holmes.

Coach
07-13-2005, 08:19 AM
Keep ****ing doubting Priest Holmes.

[Taco John]Priest has no 2nd level burst.[/Taco John]

ct
07-13-2005, 08:20 AM
Yeah, I'd hate to have the #3 overall pick with LT and Alexander off the board... Holmes is too tempting to pass up, but I did this years ago with Marshal Faulk that high.

I don't know if I can trust Priest to be injury free... hell, even if he plays half a season, he's a stud, but there's a lot of risk and he's 32. Your R1 pick needs to be as "risk free" as possible.

I looked at Antsports and LJ has gone as early as Round 4 and as late as Round 11 in a lot of mocks, and his ADP is Round 5. I think if you take Priest, then you're going to to have to take LJ in rounds 5-7 to ensure you get him. Once you get into that round 5-6 range in most leagues, you're looking at RBBC players and key backups.

Yes, it's early, but it's great fantasy insurance. I think I would bypass on Holmes and take someone like McGahee. I'm not in the position in either of my leagues to have a top 6 pick this year, so thankfully I won't have that burden.

The killer is to have a repeat of 2004... greatness through 8 games and then struggling.

Basically, once the draft starts for my league, it's round 2. With LdT as my franchise player, believe me, if Priest if on the board as a RB2, I'm all over that!!! Then while all other teams start takin the backup QBs or 3rd WRs too early, I'll take LJ too, but this is only if he's sliding to 7th round or so. WRs are very very deep from 10-30 IMO, and backup QBs don't win championships.

Mile High Mania
07-13-2005, 09:15 AM
Basically, once the draft starts for my league, it's round 2. With LdT as my franchise player, believe me, if Priest if on the board as a RB2, I'm all over that!!! Then while all other teams start takin the backup QBs or 3rd WRs too early, I'll take LJ too, but this is only if he's sliding to 7th round or so. WRs are very very deep from 10-30 IMO, and backup QBs don't win championships.

I wouldn't count on that LT-Priest combo. Unless I get a shot at Manning, I'm not taking a QB until likely R5. You can still get a Green or Brady type of QB in that round. I don't see a reason really to take a McNabb or Culpepper in R2 when you can spend rounds 2-4 on your starting RBs and WRs, when a guy like Green or Brady isn't that far off from the potential that McNabb or Culpepper brings.

Receivers are really deep... I'm interested to see how guys like Calico perform, he should rock.

Valiant
07-13-2005, 10:44 AM
I wouldn't count on that LT-Priest combo. Unless I get a shot at Manning, I'm not taking a QB until likely R5. You can still get a Green or Brady type of QB in that round. I don't see a reason really to take a McNabb or Culpepper in R2 when you can spend rounds 2-4 on your starting RBs and WRs, when a guy like Green or Brady isn't that far off from the potential that McNabb or Culpepper brings.

Receivers are really deep... I'm interested to see how guys like Calico perform, he should rock.


almost every draft I have seen mocked or been apart of has Green gone my the 3rd or 4th rounds... Brady is usually gone by the 4th or 5th.. Of course I play in custom leagues that make stud QB and WR just as good as RB's...

Powellfl
07-13-2005, 11:59 AM
I ended up with Julius Jones, Larry Johnson, and Cedric Benson as running backs. A little concerned, but the best running backs still available after the draft are Correl Buckhalter, Kevan Barlow, and a few backs who aren't any better. Anyone think I am ok holding on to Johnson as my #2 or should I start seeking trades?

Thig Lyfe
07-13-2005, 12:04 PM
In my league you get 5 points per nacho eaten.

ct
07-13-2005, 12:09 PM
I wouldn't count on that LT-Priest combo. Unless I get a shot at Manning, I'm not taking a QB until likely R5. You can still get a Green or Brady type of QB in that round. I don't see a reason really to take a McNabb or Culpepper in R2 when you can spend rounds 2-4 on your starting RBs and WRs, when a guy like Green or Brady isn't that far off from the potential that McNabb or Culpepper brings.

Receivers are really deep... I'm interested to see how guys like Calico perform, he should rock.

You missed my post earlier. One player keeper league, LT is my franchise keeper. One of our teams has Manning and Priest, already gone on record he's keeping Peyton. Only 1 new team, and they'll pick thier franchise player after everyone else declares, but before the actual draft. So all I need is this new team to have concerns with Priest's injury past, take somebody else, and for my team to get the #1 pick in our lottery drawing. Lota ifs, but possible.

ct
07-13-2005, 12:13 PM
I ended up with Julius Jones, Larry Johnson, and Cedric Benson as running backs. A little concerned, but the best running backs still available after the draft are Correl Buckhalter, Kevan Barlow, and a few backs who aren't any better. Anyone think I am ok holding on to Johnson as my #2 or should I start seeking trades?

I would be very concerned with this RB corp. LJ is nearly worthless as a regular starter if Priest is healthy. Benson will be RBBC w/ Jones at least initially. Barlow would help a little, possibly a decent pickup, but I personally don't want him. You should definitely start looking for trades!

What about guys like Eric Shelton, Maurice Morris, JJ Arrington(probably drafted), Travis Henry, or maybe even Ricky Williams?

Powellfl
07-13-2005, 12:26 PM
Thanks I appreciate your opinion. I am pretty well set at receiver, so hopefully they will tow the line. I hate the idea of how much time he will share, but just saw T.J. Duckett from the Falcons available also.

ct
07-13-2005, 12:30 PM
Thanks I appreciate your opinion. I am pretty well set at receiver, so hopefully they will tow the line. I hate the idea of how much time he will share, but just saw T.J. Duckett from the Falcons available also.

I'd probably put Duckett in the same boat as Buckhalter, the short end guy of a committee. Sadly, that right there is better than what I think LJ is worth, as long as Priest is healthy. Of course I could be wrong, that's just my opinion. At least Barlow will be on the upside of a RBBC, for now at least.

I will add though, if this is a basic TD style scoring system, then Duckett is a decent option.

If Barlow/Duckett are still out there, I bet some of these guys might be too:

Michael Pittman, will be used as a WR quite a bit this year, plus a fill in behind Williams.
Mewelde Moore, probably primary backup in Minnesota behind injury prone Bennett.
Reuben Droughns, backup in Browntown, may push Suggs for PT.
LaBrandon Toefield, Fragile Freddies backup in JAX, for now...
Mike Anderson, who knows what will shake down with the Donkey backfield?
Derrick Blaylock, C-Mart ain't gettin any younger, and was heavily used last year.
A-Train, goal-line specialist stealing TDs from your RB1, Julius Jones.
Najeh Davenport, backup to oft-injured Ahman Green.

Anyway, if your WRs are strong, the perhaps a starting RB duo of Jones and Benson will be good enough. Good Luck!