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View Full Version : FFL Faceoff - Trent Green upside/downside


ct
07-13-2005, 10:05 AM
Staying objective, what are your thoughts...

*****

http://www.footballguys.com/05faceoff-GreeTr00.htm

Faceoff - QB Trent Green, Kansas City Chiefs

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Posted 6/23, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

The Kansas City Chiefs offense has been an unstoppable locomotive year in and year out since Head Coach Dick Vermeil arrived on the scene. The team has averaged 30 points per game over the past three seasons, and that trend should continue this year. Trent Green has been the one leading the charge, and his numbers have improved each season (304 to 306 to 329 fantasy points), ranking as the #3, and #4 QB the past two seasons

Kansas City amassed almost 7,000 yards of offense and scored 58 touchdowns last yearótheir third straight season with 50+ TD. Green and the Chiefs have accomplished all this with a marginal WR corps, and many people would be hard-pressed to name three of their receivers.

Green has thrown for over 4,000 yards the last two years (over 4,500 in 2004) and has averaged 25 passing TD since 2002. He wonít rush for 900 yards, he has no shot at a passing TD or total yardage records, and he doesnít have Terrell Owens as a teammate. But he still does manage to get the job done, even if itís not flashy, and even if itís not to anyone thatís signing the football or making a cell phone call after a TD reception.

In FBGís initial projections, Green is projected as the #8 fantasy QB with 292 fantasy points. Heís already proven he can exceed that point total and outclass that ranking. With Manning, Culpepper, and McNabb as Top 25 selections, there should be several rounds before more QB start getting selected. Green will produce numbers close to the top tier but can be had after 50+ players have come off the draft board (most recent ADP of 53rd player overall) making his value high for his production level.



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Downside - by David Dodds

Trent Green has been a great player to have as a QB on your fantasy team the last few years. So what‚s changed this year for me to be down on him? Actually, I expect he will be a good QB this season. But at age 35, he is way too risky a pick to take as the 4th QB. And that is exactly his average draft position this season. Consider these numbers:

The 4th best QB in terms of fantasy points scored 329, 306, 326, 326 and 349 fantasy points the last five seasons. That averages out to 327 fantasy points.

You know how many times in the last 44 years a QB age 35 or greater has produced a season greater than 326 FPs?

It has happened just 5 times. Rich Gannon twice (age 35 and 37), Randall Cunningham once (age 35), Young once (age 37), and Warren Moon once (age 39). That fact alone tells me that Trent Green does not have the upside necessary to warrant be taken as the 4th best QB.

Additionally the following factors lead me to believe Trent Green will disappoint this season:


The Chiefs have a much better defense. They were involved in a lot of shootouts because they could stop no one last year.

Johnnie Morton is gone and Eddie Kennison is getting old (32 years old). Unproven players like Samie Parker may take some time to develop.

Over the last 3 years, the Chiefs' RBs have produced the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best running back season performances. Only the Green Bay Packers in 2003 have had better RB stats. Although the Chiefs are proficient at both passing and running, they would prefer to run the ball with their massive offensive line.

HC_Chief
07-13-2005, 10:11 AM
Solid analysis on both sides IMO.

Mile High Mania
07-13-2005, 10:19 AM
Great points on all accounts. However, while the Chiefs shouldn't be in as many shootouts, I don't think that's going to stop them from wanting to score as much as they have in the past.

There should be concern about who can replace Morton, but not much concern. I figure a mix of Parker and Fredex could balance it out. If they use more 2-RB sets with Holmes and LJ, with Gonzo, Eddie and Parker on the field... you have nice passing options.

I still think Green is going to be a top 5-6 fantasy QB and can be had late in R4 or in R5. It just depends if an owner tries to start a 'run' on QBs in R3.

Try to AVOID those types of runs and stick to your plan.

HC_Chief
07-13-2005, 10:21 AM
MHM - don't forget about Wilson & the 2 & 3 TE sets. You will be seeing those this season, bank on it.


I can't wait... DCs will be shitting themselves :evil:

Kerberos
07-13-2005, 11:07 AM
MHM - don't forget about Wilson & the 2 & 3 TE sets. You will be seeing those this season, bank on it.


I can't wait... DCs will be shitting themselves :evil:


YUP... Things should look interesting in our first RS game against Da-Jets. I hope we show the league that we have more weapons at our disposal than ever before.


DC's will definatly be pitching a bitch coming up with game plans against the Chiefs. :thumb:



:D



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Valiant
07-13-2005, 11:51 AM
MHM - don't forget about Wilson & the 2 & 3 TE sets. You will be seeing those this season, bank on it.


I can't wait... DCs will be shitting themselves :evil:


It sounds nice on paper, but we will have to wait and see if a 3Te set is even worth a damn.,..

HC_Chief
07-13-2005, 11:54 AM
It sounds nice on paper, but we will have to wait and see if a 3Te set is even worth a damn.,..

True... but indications are Wilson is back to form and AS has been salivating at the prospect of getting him and Gonzo in at the same time. Add Dunn, the best blocking TE in the biz IMO, with Priest or LJ in the backfield and you have a power formation that cannot be read. :thumb:

ct
07-13-2005, 12:39 PM
It sounds nice on paper, but we will have to wait and see if a 3Te set is even worth a damn.,..

Well at least 1 respondant kept it objective. HC started to, but then Homer took over. And you don't count towards this comment MHM, but I've seen most of the time you stay objective about your Donks, so I'll give you that!

I agree with both points of view, just not as high or low as either one. Trent likely will not match last year's production, but he'll still be plenty good to warrent anywhere from the 4th to 6th QB taken, in my opinion. I put Trent about the same level as Bulger and Collins, most likely between the 2.