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View Full Version : FFL Keeper league: Who do I keep.


chop
07-30-2005, 10:24 AM
I normally take rb's with my first two picks in the draft but I have a very good QB. I'm curious as to your opinion on who I should keep this year. I can keep two players from my last years team. Every team has to protect two players from the year before but if a team would rather take an unprotected player instead of keeping one of their protected players, when they are on the clock, they can. Unless I change my mind I'm going to keep Holmes and Manning. I think 90% of FFL players would keep these two but I'm curious to what you al have to say. BTW, it's a ten team league and I'm picking at the ten spot. So picking up Priest Holmes and Peyton Manning with the 10th and 11th overall picks is very good.

QB P. Manning (Ind - QB)
WR C. Chambers (Mia - WR)
WR A. Boldin (Ari - WR)
RB M. Pittman (TB - RB)
RB R. Johnson (Cin - RB)
TE J. Wiggins (Min - TE)
WR/RB La. JohnsonP (KC - RB)
BN R. DroughnsP (Den - RB)
BN C. BrownO (Ten - RB)
BN Ro. Williams (Det - WR)
BN T. Jones (Chi - RB)
BN P. HolmesIR (KC - RB)
BN T. GreenP (KC - QB)

Hydrae
07-30-2005, 10:29 AM
That is a no brainer given the rest of your team. The only others I would even think about thinking twice about would be Rudi and Boldin. But neither of them come close to Priest and Peyton.

I was expecting to keep Chris Brown in my keeper league but with the Henry trade, there is no way. So, would you keep Trent Green or Joe Horn? My obvious keeper is Edge.

chop
07-30-2005, 10:39 AM
I'm not a big fan of Horns. He gets respectable numbers but he will never carry your team. Green has the potential to be the difference maker from week to week. With that said, if I had better players I wouldn't keep either one.

chop
07-30-2005, 10:42 AM
There is a team that has D. Davis. A. Green, J. Jones, K. Jones, and Curtis Martin. He can only keep two. When it's my turn to pick I may be able to get one of the his guys instead. The funny thing is that even though he had a team with that much fire power he didn't make the playoffs last year. He faced teams that seemed to have great weeks when they played him.

Hydrae
07-30-2005, 10:45 AM
There is a team that has D. Davis. A. Green, J. Jones, K. Jones, and Curtis Martin. He can only keep two. When it's my turn to pick I may be able to get one of the his guys instead.


He has a nice problem there. There is a lot of talk about D. Davis being a stud this year but I am not sure I am buying it. From that list I would probably keep CMart and J Jones. I am expecting Julius to have a monster year in Parcell's system.

Mr. Laz
07-30-2005, 10:46 AM
it's usually all about the running backs and that team looks a little weak.

manning and Holmes


draft the best WR available imo

Hydrae
07-30-2005, 10:49 AM
I'm not a big fan of Horns. He gets respectable numbers but he will never carry your team. Green has the potential to be the difference maker from week to week.


Yeah, I know. That is my problem. I have until midnight tomorrow if I want to change.

Here is the entire roster (I am keeping DFreeney as my defensive keeper, we get 4 points per sack to try to balance out the defensive linemen with the linebackers/safeties/cb's):

DE Freeney, Dwight IND
QB Green, Trent KC
QB Pennington, Chad NYJ
RB Blaylock, Derrick NYJ
RB James, Edgerrin IND
RB Brown, Chris R. TEN
RB Suggs, Lee CLE
WR Clayton, Michael TB
WR Morton, Johnnie SF
WR Muhammad, Muhsin CHI
WR Horn, Joe NO
WR Brown, Troy F. NE
TE McMichael, Randy MIA
PK Brown, Kris HOU
LB Suggs, Terrell BAL
CB Bailey, Champ DEN
S Archuleta, Adam STL
S Dawkins, Brian PHI


Believe it or not, I got to the Super Bowl with this team. ROFL

morphius
07-30-2005, 10:55 AM
Chop - I would stick with Manning and Holmes as well. Depending on the league, Manning probably puts up numbers more like a RB then the normal QB's, especially since they pass for all of their TD's instead of running for them. I doub't any better will come through with the 10th and 11th pick.

Nzoner
07-30-2005, 10:56 AM
Yeah, I know. That is my problem. I have until midnight tomorrow if I want to change.

Here is the entire roster (I am keeping DFreeney as my defensive keeper, we get 4 points per sack to try to balance out the defensive linemen with the linebackers/safeties/cb's):

DE Freeney, Dwight IND
QB Green, Trent KC
QB Pennington, Chad NYJ
RB Blaylock, Derrick NYJ
RB James, Edgerrin IND
RB Brown, Chris R. TEN
RB Suggs, Lee CLE
WR Clayton, Michael TB
WR Morton, Johnnie SF
WR Muhammad, Muhsin CHI
WR Horn, Joe NO
WR Brown, Troy F. NE
TE McMichael, Randy MIA
PK Brown, Kris HOU
LB Suggs, Terrell BAL
CB Bailey, Champ DEN
S Archuleta, Adam STL
S Dawkins, Brian PHI


Believe it or not, I got to the Super Bowl with this team. ROFL


Clayton had to be a nice surprise for you last year,have you given any thought to keeping him?

Hydrae
07-30-2005, 11:10 AM
Clayton had to be a nice surprise for you last year,have you given any thought to keeping him?


I actually traded Ahman Green for him during the season with the thought of keeping him. Just not sure how comfortable I am with the QB situation down there.

chop
07-30-2005, 11:13 AM
I think I would consider keeping Clayton over Horn. Clayton has more upside, IMO, than Horn. That is if you are planning on keeping a receiver.

Nzoner
07-30-2005, 11:14 AM
I actually traded Ahman Green for him during the season with the thought of keeping him. Just not sure how comfortable I am with the QB situation down there.

I agree,however,if there's one coach you gotta like with making a qb look good it's Gruden.

J Diddy
07-30-2005, 11:17 AM
Yeah, I know. That is my problem. I have until midnight tomorrow if I want to change.

Here is the entire roster (I am keeping DFreeney as my defensive keeper, we get 4 points per sack to try to balance out the defensive linemen with the linebackers/safeties/cb's):

DE Freeney, Dwight IND
QB Green, Trent KC
QB Pennington, Chad NYJ
RB Blaylock, Derrick NYJ
RB James, Edgerrin IND
RB Brown, Chris R. TEN
RB Suggs, Lee CLE
WR Clayton, Michael TB
WR Morton, Johnnie SF
WR Muhammad, Muhsin CHI
WR Horn, Joe NO
WR Brown, Troy F. NE
TE McMichael, Randy MIA
PK Brown, Kris HOU
LB Suggs, Terrell BAL
CB Bailey, Champ DEN
S Archuleta, Adam STL
S Dawkins, Brian PHI


Believe it or not, I got to the Super Bowl with this team. ROFL


I had Green and Holmes last year. Green carried me to the playoffs and then some. Once I got in my whole team had a shit game save Green and I lost barely.

Nzoner
07-30-2005, 11:20 AM
I had Green and Holmes last year. Green carried me to the playoffs and then some. Once I got in my whole team had a shit game save Green and I lost barely.

What weeks are your playoffs?

J Diddy
07-30-2005, 11:22 AM
What weeks are your playoffs?

They started around week 12 or so I believe.

Hydrae
07-30-2005, 11:25 AM
I think I would consider keeping Clayton over Horn. Clayton has more upside, IMO, than Horn. That is if you are planning on keeping a receiver.


It isn't about upside, it is about what he will do this season. And also about who I might be able to draft with the 11th and 14th picks in the draft (12 team league obviously).

KevB
07-30-2005, 12:34 PM
I think I would consider keeping Clayton over Horn. Clayton has more upside, IMO, than Horn. That is if you are planning on keeping a receiver.

Clayton's still nursing a knee injury that he had surgery on in the off-season. Keep an eye on that...

Nzoner
07-30-2005, 12:50 PM
Clayton's still nursing a knee injury that he had surgery on in the off-season. Keep an eye on that...

Latest update I could find from the St Petersburg Times (http://www.sptimes.com/2005/07/30/Bucs/Lone_practice_keeps_W.shtml)

NO WIND SITUATION: Receiver Michael Clayton has recovered from arthroscopic knee surgery, but is far from being in playing shape.

On Friday, he gutted through both workouts, the most action he has seen all offseason.

"He's going to be a work in progress to get into tip-top shape, he might tell you he's in pretty good shape and feels okay," Gruden said. "But I did see his tongue hanging out towards the end of that workout."

True to Gruden's prediction, Clayton said he welcomed the chance to use the heat as a way of getting him into shape quicker.

"I felt good, man," Clayton said. "Like I said, I'm just pushing myself today. I'm going to go until I can't go no more and I'm going to regroup and come back out and go until I can't go no more until I get my shape back at 100 percent. I'm definitely looking forward to being tired because I know I got something out of today's work."

papasmurf
07-30-2005, 07:24 PM
You did not list Priest

Mile High Mania
07-30-2005, 08:39 PM
Horn is a stud... he's a top #2 fantasy receiver, borderline #1.

Since 2000 - he's had 1,200+ yards 4 of 5 seasons, surpassing 1,300 in 3 of those seasons. He has had 10 and 11 TDs the last 2 seasons with 8, 9 and 7 respectively from 2000-2002.

Horn has rocked every year since leaving KC and 2003 was the only time he dipped under 1,000 yards.

I think Clayton has a ton of upside, but I wouldn't draft him over Horn.

Regarding the original question... when do you have to declare your keeper? It's hard to pass on Holmes, but you better get LJ. I would be tempted to keep Rudi as he can be a 1,300-1,500 yard / 12-15TD RB in 2005 with nice potential the next 4-5 seasons.

Holmes has a more narrow window of time left in the league. But, if he is healthy (big question mark) he puts up insane numbers.

Hydrae
07-30-2005, 09:54 PM
Horn is a stud... he's a top #2 fantasy receiver, borderline #1.

Since 2000 - he's had 1,200+ yards 4 of 5 seasons, surpassing 1,300 in 3 of those seasons. He has had 10 and 11 TDs the last 2 seasons with 8, 9 and 7 respectively from 2000-2002.

Horn has rocked every year since leaving KC and 2003 was the only time he dipped under 1,000 yards.

I think Clayton has a ton of upside, but I wouldn't draft him over Horn.

Regarding the original question... when do you have to declare your keeper? It's hard to pass on Holmes, but you better get LJ. I would be tempted to keep Rudi as he can be a 1,300-1,500 yard / 12-15TD RB in 2005 with nice potential the next 4-5 seasons.

Holmes has a more narrow window of time left in the league. But, if he is healthy (big question mark) he puts up insane numbers.


Thanks for the positives about Horn. I keep vacilating on keeping Trent instead but I really think that Horn is a higher WR value than Trent is at QB value.

Logical
07-30-2005, 10:52 PM
I would probably keep Manning and Boldin from those players (unless you can keep BN players, then I would keep Priest over Boldin)

patteeu
07-31-2005, 06:27 AM
it's usually all about the running backs and that team looks a little weak.

manning and Holmes


draft the best WR available imo

This post seems a little bit schizo. It's all about the RBs but he should draft a WR?

I was with you until you said he should draft a WR. Unless a Moss or a Harrison is available, and unless all the decent feature backs are already gone, I'd take a RB with the first pick. Especially since Priest's work is probably going to decrease this season as they try to spell him more with Johnson. It's still all about the RBs.

carlos3652
07-31-2005, 10:06 AM
3 players to keep... What do you think?

QB Brett Favre, GB QB
RB Ahman Green, GB RB
RB/WR Emmitt Smith, DAL RB
WR Rod Smith, DEN WR
WR Jimmy Smith, JAX WR
TE Daniel Graham, NE
K Lawrence Tynes, KC K
D New York Jets D

ROSTER: BENCH

Drew Brees, SD QB
Bench Marc Bulger, STL QB
Bench Duce Staley, PIT RB
Bench Ashley Lelie, DEN WR
Bench David Givens, NE WR
Bench Terrell Owens, PHI WR
Bench Seattle Seahawks D
Bench L.J. Smith, PHI TE

Made the playoffs, but TO hurt was not a good thing...

patteeu
07-31-2005, 10:53 AM
3 players to keep... What do you think?

QB Brett Favre, GB QB
RB Ahman Green, GB RB
RB/WR Emmitt Smith, DAL RB
WR Rod Smith, DEN WR
WR Jimmy Smith, JAX WR
TE Daniel Graham, NE
K Lawrence Tynes, KC K
D New York Jets D

ROSTER: BENCH

Drew Brees, SD QB
Bench Marc Bulger, STL QB
Bench Duce Staley, PIT RB
Bench Ashley Lelie, DEN WR
Bench David Givens, NE WR
Bench Terrell Owens, PHI WR
Bench Seattle Seahawks D
Bench L.J. Smith, PHI TE

Made the playoffs, but TO hurt was not a good thing...


I hate to say it, but I don't think you have 3 worth keeping (unless you are in a big league or you plan on keeping TO for the future). Ahman Green is the only guy I'd be thrilled about keeping. Favre and Bulger are liable to be solid, but I'd hate to make either of them my #2 keeper. Staley could be good if Bettis breaks a leg so he can't steal all of the TDs. If TO was still healthy, you'd have a pretty solid core.

chop
07-31-2005, 10:58 AM
3 players to keep... What do you think?

QB Brett Favre, GB QB
RB Ahman Green, GB RB
RB/WR Emmitt Smith, DAL RB
WR Rod Smith, DEN WR
WR Jimmy Smith, JAX WR
TE Daniel Graham, NE
K Lawrence Tynes, KC K
D New York Jets D

ROSTER: BENCH

Drew Brees, SD QB
Bench Marc Bulger, STL QB
Bench Duce Staley, PIT RB
Bench Ashley Lelie, DEN WR
Bench David Givens, NE WR
Bench Terrell Owens, PHI WR
Bench Seattle Seahawks D
Bench L.J. Smith, PHI TE

Made the playoffs, but TO hurt was not a good thing...

I guess if I were to pick 3 keepers from your team I would select 1. Owens 2. Green 3. Staley

Mile High Mania
07-31-2005, 11:06 AM
3 players to keep... What do you think?

QB Brett Favre, GB QB
RB Ahman Green, GB RB
RB/WR Emmitt Smith, DAL RB
WR Rod Smith, DEN WR
WR Jimmy Smith, JAX WR
TE Daniel Graham, NE
K Lawrence Tynes, KC K
D New York Jets D

ROSTER: BENCH

Drew Brees, SD QB
Bench Marc Bulger, STL QB
Bench Duce Staley, PIT RB
Bench Ashley Lelie, DEN WR
Bench David Givens, NE WR
Bench Terrell Owens, PHI WR
Bench Seattle Seahawks D
Bench L.J. Smith, PHI TE

Made the playoffs, but TO hurt was not a good thing...

Do you lose any draft picks for keeping any players? Like - do you automatically lose your top 3 picks if you keep 3 or do you lose the pick representing the round X player was drafted last season? Or, do you just keep 3 and continue on with your full slate of draft picks?

I would think that Owens and Green are the only two that are potential keepers based upon what you do or do not lose in the upcoming draft. Favre and Bulger are ranked between #5 and #10 overall QBs and can be had in Rounds 3-5 most likely if you're in a normal type of 12 team draft.

If you lose no picks and must keep 3... then I might keep Green, Owens and Favre. Bulger gets a lot of hype, but has never been "prolific". He's thrown 22 and 21 TDs the last 2 seasons with 22 and 14 INTs respectively. You can get Plummer in Round 5 or 6 even and get that type of production, likely more if 2004 was an indicator of what he can really do.

Favre has no real "longterm" value, but should be solid this year. Over the last 3 seasons, Favre has had 27, 32 and 30 TDs with 16, 21 and 17 INTs. The INTs are high, but he is a TD and yardage machine - passing for 3,600+, 3,300+ and 4,000+ yards the last 3 seasons respectively. Favre is going to toss 15-20 INTs, but has more fantasy appeal than Bulger.

Another thought... if there is no max on how many you can keep at a position, you might keep Green, Owens and either Jimmy Smith or Lelie. Smith is going to be a top #2 fantasy WR and Lelie (I project) will surpass Rod in yardage and TDs this season. Lelie might not have the same number of receptions, but he's the long pass guy and has connected well with Plummer. (homer glasses off) I would not be surprised to see Lelie top 1,250 yards and 10 TDs this season.

Lelie should be targeted as a solid #3 receiver, but I think he will surprise many with #2 starter production. So, you could have your top 2 receivers set going into the draft, as well as your #1 RB. And, you can still grab a nice starting QB in Round 4.

Just some thoughts...

Mile High Mania
07-31-2005, 11:07 AM
I guess if I were to pick 3 keepers from your team I would select 1. Owens 2. Green 3. Staley

I just don't trust Staley. If healthy, he could definitely be a 1,200+ yard RB in that 'ground it out' offense, but the fear of Bettis stealing TDs is a real threat to his overall production in fantasy.

chop
07-31-2005, 11:08 AM
I just don't trust Staley. If healthy, he could definitely be a 1,200+ yard RB in that 'ground it out' offense, but the fear of Bettis stealing TDs is a real threat to his overall production in fantasy.

I understand what you are saying but who else does he have?

Mile High Mania
07-31-2005, 11:10 AM
I understand what you are saying but who else does he have?

At RB, he doesn't have much which is why I was suggesting that I might keep 2 WRs if he can do so without losing a top draft pick. Jimmy Smith or Lelie in my opinions will be top #2 fantasy receivers when it's all over.

Bowser
07-31-2005, 11:11 AM
At RB, he doesn't have much which is why I was suggesting that I might keep 2 WRs if he can do so without losing a top draft pick. Jimmy Smith or Lelie in my opinions will be top #2 fantasy receivers when it's all over.

Always the homer. :shake:


:D

Mile High Mania
07-31-2005, 11:12 AM
Always the homer. :shake:
:D

I am not looking at Lelie with my predominantly orange and blue shades... I just think he has huge potential if he continues to build on what he and Plummer did in 2004.

carlos3652
07-31-2005, 11:55 AM
I hate to say it, but I don't think you have 3 worth keeping (unless you are in a big league or you plan on keeping TO for the future). Ahman Green is the only guy I'd be thrilled about keeping. Favre and Bulger are liable to be solid, but I'd hate to make either of them my #2 keeper. Staley could be good if Bettis breaks a leg so he can't steal all of the TDs. If TO was still healthy, you'd have a pretty solid core.

12 teams in the league...

I was thinking of 1 qb, 1 rb, 1 wr, (Favre, Green, TO), then draft Best Available

carlos3652
07-31-2005, 11:58 AM
Do you lose any draft picks for keeping any players? Like - do you automatically lose your top 3 picks if you keep 3 or do you lose the pick representing the round X player was drafted last season? Or, do you just keep 3 and continue on with your full slate of draft picks?

I would think that Owens and Green are the only two that are potential keepers based upon what you do or do not lose in the upcoming draft. Favre and Bulger are ranked between #5 and #10 overall QBs and can be had in Rounds 3-5 most likely if you're in a normal type of 12 team draft.

If you lose no picks and must keep 3... then I might keep Green, Owens and Favre. Bulger gets a lot of hype, but has never been "prolific". He's thrown 22 and 21 TDs the last 2 seasons with 22 and 14 INTs respectively. You can get Plummer in Round 5 or 6 even and get that type of production, likely more if 2004 was an indicator of what he can really do.

Favre has no real "longterm" value, but should be solid this year. Over the last 3 seasons, Favre has had 27, 32 and 30 TDs with 16, 21 and 17 INTs. The INTs are high, but he is a TD and yardage machine - passing for 3,600+, 3,300+ and 4,000+ yards the last 3 seasons respectively. Favre is going to toss 15-20 INTs, but has more fantasy appeal than Bulger.

Another thought... if there is no max on how many you can keep at a position, you might keep Green, Owens and either Jimmy Smith or Lelie. Smith is going to be a top #2 fantasy WR and Lelie (I project) will surpass Rod in yardage and TDs this season. Lelie might not have the same number of receptions, but he's the long pass guy and has connected well with Plummer. (homer glasses off) I would not be surprised to see Lelie top 1,250 yards and 10 TDs this season.

Lelie should be targeted as a solid #3 receiver, but I think he will surprise many with #2 starter production. So, you could have your top 2 receivers set going into the draft, as well as your #1 RB. And, you can still grab a nice starting QB in Round 4.

Just some thoughts...

You keep three, and draft normally, each team can keep as many as 3... no draft picks will be lost.

Thanks for the advice MHM!

Mile High Mania
07-31-2005, 12:00 PM
You keep three, and draft normally, each team can keep as many as 3... no draft picks will be lost.

Thanks for the advice MHM!

Since that is how it works... I would seriously consider keeping Green and two receivers since you can walk into the draft with your #1 RB and 2 of your top 3 receivers, should you keep Owens and Jimmy Smith for example.

Reality says you can likely draft Favre in Round 4 should you choose to do so and there isn't a better option. Since nothing is lost, might as well keep 3 players and you have upwards of 3 receivers worthy of keeping for your top 3-4 slots.

patteeu
07-31-2005, 12:07 PM
12 teams in the league...

I was thinking of 1 qb, 1 rb, 1 wr, (Favre, Green, TO), then draft Best Available

Sounds reasonable. I'd lean toward drafting best available RB, but it depends on who's available. I thought Mile High's advice was solid, but like you, I'd keep Favre over Bulger, Smith, or Lelie.

Mile High Mania
07-31-2005, 12:13 PM
Sounds reasonable. I'd lean toward drafting best available RB, but it depends on who's available. I thought Mile High's advice was solid, but like you, I'd keep Favre over Bulger, Smith, or Lelie.

Favre wouldn't be a bad choice by any means, I just think he has a better than zero chance to put Favre back into the talent pool and keep one of the other receivers, giving him a better jump on building depth in that area.... and still be able to draft Favre as his starter. So, in essence he could keep 4.

He should go RB in R1, possibly R2 as well depending on the value there. If we were to keep RB/WR/WR and draft two RBs in the first 2 rounds, he'd have 3 RBs/2WRs going into Round 3 and he could take another WR and then go QB in Round 4 and have a nice option - again, Favre will likely be there. Favre currently has an ADP of around R6 according to Antsports in Flex/TE drafts. His ADP is the same in non-flex, non-TE leagues.

So, it's safe to assume he can be drafted in R4 or R5. Hasselbeck, Plummer, Palmer, Brady... these are all guys in that same ADP range. I think Pennington and Carr (as well as Palmer) are really going to do well this season. These are guys that can be had as a #2 in a lot of leagues, if you commit to taking 2 QBs by Round 7... it might be risky naming one of them as your starter at the beginning, but in the end, I think they each do really well this season.

carlos3652
07-31-2005, 12:38 PM
Favre wouldn't be a bad choice by any means, I just think he has a better than zero chance to put Favre back into the talent pool and keep one of the other receivers, giving him a better jump on building depth in that area.... and still be able to draft Favre as his starter. So, in essence he could keep 4.

He should go RB in R1, possibly R2 as well depending on the value there. If we were to keep RB/WR/WR and draft two RBs in the first 2 rounds, he'd have 3 RBs/2WRs going into Round 3 and he could take another WR and then go QB in Round 4 and have a nice option - again, Favre will likely be there. Favre currently has an ADP of around R6 according to Antsports in Flex/TE drafts. His ADP is the same in non-flex, non-TE leagues.

So, it's safe to assume he can be drafted in R4 or R5. Hasselbeck, Plummer, Palmer, Brady... these are all guys in that same ADP range. I think Pennington and Carr (as well as Palmer) are really going to do well this season. These are guys that can be had as a #2 in a lot of leagues, if you commit to taking 2 QBs by Round 7... it might be risky naming one of them as your starter at the beginning, but in the end, I think they each do really well this season.

The only issue is that the other 11 teams will be keeping 3 as well, making the QB, WR, RB pool very scarce, you would have to believe that the best 12 QB's/RB's/WR's will be taken before the draft starts. That means that my best bet is to try to get a
RB/WR in round 1
WR/RB in round 2
RB/WR in round 3.
QB in round 4
WR/RB/TE in round 5
TE/K/D in round 6
TE/K/D in round 7

Leaving me with:

2 QB's (Favre/Rd 4)
3 RB's (Green/Rd 1/Rd 3)
3-4 WR's (TO/Rd 2/Rd 5/6)
1 TE (Rd 6/7/Wire)
1 K (Rd 6/7/Wire)
1 D (Rd 6/7/Wire)

Mile High Mania
07-31-2005, 12:41 PM
That's very true as well... part of the "risk" with a keeper league format. I would look at the other 12 teams, get a feel for which QBs they will keep and try to determine which QBs will be thrown back into the draft pool.

If you have 6-7 guys in that 3,500+ yard / 25+ TD range... you might take the risk.

This is one of those "gut check" moments... enjoy and good luck.