Countdown to October 15th...

[Taco John]

On October 15th, the Iraqis will vote on their Constitution. Seems to me we had all better hope that it gets passed. I'm not sure what the fallout would be from a failed passing, but I know it can't be good for the markets or for America.


So far they have agreed on a draft (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_19-9-2005_pg4_9) and have sent it to the UN...

However, China Media is reporting that the Iraqi Islamic Party announced on Tuesday a full rejection to the constitution (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-09/20/content_3518003.htm), making things dicey if true.

In any case, it will be an important day for the World.

[Bowser]

I thought you were going to tell us you were coming to the 37 Forever party. That's almost as important, right?

[go bowe]

that's more important...

much more important...

and the next day is even more important as we crush the skins...

crush, i say...

with real defense instead of that imitation thing we've had the past few years...

wait a minute...

where am i?

ah screw it...

GO CHIEFS!!! :BLVD: :BLVD: :BLVD:

[the Talking Can]

Bush's goal of creating an Fundamentalist Islamic Iraq inches towards towards reality with a farce of a constitution.



the terrorist loving Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/24/AR2005092401142_pf.html)

Wrong Way in Iraq

Sunday, September 25, 2005; B06

AS IRAQ MOVES toward a referendum on its new constitution just three weeks from now, many of its senior politicians readily concede that the charter is seriously flawed, and that its approval may worsen rather than alleviate the relentless violence. Leaders of neighboring Arab states and some Bush administration officials seem to share this view. Yet none of these officials or leaders has been willing or able to stop the political process from going forward. Some, like Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, speak hopefully of fixing the constitution by adding an annex between now and Oct. 15. Others, including senior Bush administration officials, more realistically look past the referendum to parliamentary elections at the end of the year. These, they hope, will produce a different and more representative group of Iraqis able to settle the many conflicts that the constitution leaves unresolved.

Faced with sinking domestic support, the Bush administration seems driven by an unwise zeal to produce visible results in Iraq -- such as a ratified constitution -- however problematic they may be. At best, administration policymakers are calculating that moving forward with the referendum offers better odds of eventual success than trying to stop and start over. Yet, judging from what even supportive Iraqis are saying, the risk is very great that the constitutional process will either tip Iraq decisively toward civil war or produce a state far from the goal of a tolerant democracy for which nearly 2,000 Americans have given their lives.

The fundamental source of trouble is not the Islamic extremists President Bush usually speaks about; nor is it the presence of American soldiers. If the protesters visiting Washington this weekend succeeded in forcing a quick U.S. troop withdrawal, the bloodshed in Iraq, and the damage to the United States, would grow far worse. That is because the real problem is the absence of an agreement about Iraq's future between the majority Shiite and Kurd communities and the minority Sunnis, who ruled the country from the time of its establishment until the fall of Saddam Hussein. That disconnect is expressed in the overwhelming rejection by Sunni leaders of the constitutional draft.

In one hopeful sign, the Sunnis are working hard to register their voters and produce a massive turnout in the referendum, a striking contrast to their boycott of January's elections. But the most probable outcome of that democratic participation is that Sunnis will vote overwhelmingly against the constitution -- and it nevertheless will be ratified by the votes of Shiites and Kurds. Even officials of the current, Shiite-led government fear that such a result would cause moderate Sunnis to reject the nascent political system and more fully embrace the armed insurgency, which is led not by foreign Islamists such as Abu Musab Zarqawi but by Iraqi Sunni nationalists.

Defenders of the constitution argue that many Sunni leaders are pro-Hussein diehards who wouldn't accept any democratic system in Iraq and who don't represent most Sunnis. That's probably true, but it's equally true that some Sunni complaints about the constitution are legitimate. Though the details of implementation were postponed, the current draft would allow the Shiites, who already control the national government, to create their own ministate in southern Iraq, which very likely would be ruled by clerics and Islamic law and would closely ally itself with neighboring Iran. It would have its own armed forces and control Iraq's biggest oil fields. The Kurds would have their own ministate in northern Iraq and would probably take over the city of Kirkuk and its oil production. This radical form of "federalism" not only would be ruinous to the Sunni community, as well as the mixed population of Baghdad: It would be threatening and even destabilizing for all of Iraq's neighbors except Iran. It would produce an Iraq that the United States would have no interest in defending.

The only way for Iraq to avoid catastrophe is a political accord among Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis, one that can be based only on the preservation of Iraq as a federal but unified state in which resources and political power are fairly shared and human rights protected. The Bush administration, and Iraqi leaders themselves, ought to be focused on striking that national compromise rather than on prematurely enshrining pieces of paper or adhering to deadlines that were set arbitrarily 18 months ago. The longer the delay in achieving real compromise, the greater the risk that Iraqis will be locked into a march toward ruinous civil war, whether the political calendar is followed or not. Many important Iraqi leaders, among them Shiites and Kurds, understand what is needed. The Bush administration must catalyze them into action. If it can do so in the next three weeks, the odds that it can rescue the American mission in Iraq will be much better.

© 2005 The Washington Post Company

[jettio]

No worries, all the Shiites and Kurds have to do is come up with two different definition of "voters," to guarantee that the Sunni(s) have no veto power.

yuk, yuk :titus:


http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/

THE RULE OF LAW....The New York Times reports that Iraqi leaders have changed the rules for ratification of their new constitution:

Under the new rules, the constitution will fail only if two-thirds of all registered voters — rather than two-thirds of all those actually casting ballots — reject it in at least 3 of the 18 provinces.

....Given that fewer than 60 percent of registered Iraqis voted in the January elections, the chances that two-thirds would both show up at the polls and vote against the document in three provinces would appear to be close to nil.

Italics mine. Obviously the idea is to guarantee passage of the constitution, but this interpretation seems self-defeating, doesn't it? After all, here's what Article 61 of the Transitional Law says:

The general referendum will be successful and the draft constitution ratified if a majority of the voters in Iraq approve and if two-thirds of the voters in three or more governorates do not reject it.

If "voters" means "all registered voters," then the constitution has to be approved by a majority of all registered voters in the first place — which isn't very likely. So how does this help things? The Times explains:

In their vote on Sunday, the Shiite and Kurdish members interpreted the law as follows: the constitution will pass if a majority of ballots are cast for it; it will fail if two-thirds of registered voters in three or more provinces vote against it. In other words, the lawmakers designated two different meanings for the word "voters" in one passage.

It would appear that Iraq's leaders have learned well from their Republican mentors. It's sort of like their own personal nuclear option.

Aside from the obvious travesty of democracy in play here, what's really odd about all this is that most of the recent reports from Iraq have indicated that it was unlikely the Sunnis would successfully reject the constitution anyway. But I guess the Shiites and Kurds must have felt differently. I wonder what they know that Western reporters apparently don't?

[go bowe]

interesting development...

politics, iraq style...

imo, the sunnis are going to get hosed if they don't buy into the program pretty soon...

[ChiefsCountry]

Its going to McCain more than likely in 2008.

[memyselfI]

No worries, all the Shiites and Kurds have to do is come up with two different definition of "voters," to guarantee that the Sunni(s) have no veto power.

yuk, yuk :titus:

In their vote on Sunday, the Shiite and Kurdish members interpreted the law as follows: the constitution will pass if a majority of ballots are cast for it; it will fail if two-thirds of registered voters in three or more provinces vote against it. In other words, the lawmakers designated two different meanings for the word "voters" in one passage.



Well this will certainly make the Sunnis feel that the constitution is fair.

[Amnorix]

Iraq is an inheritently screwed up country. It has two strong religious factions (Shiite and Sunni) and one weak faction (Kurds). Meanwhile, the Southern part of hte country is oil rich and has access to the Gulf. The Northern part of the country is also oil rich (though not quite so much as the South) but no water access.

The middle of the country, meanwhile, has no oil to speak of, and is also where the, err, Sunnis are in the majority (pretty sure it's the Sunnis, but I'm brain farting on this. Might be the Shiites).

So, of course, everyone is in it for themselves, none of these three factions get along, and they have unequal resources at their disposal.

This, in sum, is a recipe for either a strong federal government, or a complete disaster.

Imbalance of resources and economic disparity is the SINGLE most important thing that cause the American civil war as well. Without a relatively strong federal government to redistribute and equalize wealth, to some degree, a country is unlikely to be permanently sustainable.

Good job Bush, you f'ng moron. American lives and untold billions of dollars expended, and for what? A large, unstable, oil rich country in the heart of the Middle East that just BEGS for endless civil war or the rise of another brutal dictator. Well done. f**khead...

[memyselfI]

Iraq is an inheritently screwed up country. It has two strong religious factions (Shiite and Sunni) and one weak faction (Kurds). Meanwhile, the Southern part of hte country is oil rich and has access to the Gulf. The Northern part of the country is also oil rich (though not quite so much as the South) but no water access.

The middle of the country, meanwhile, has no oil to speak of, and is also where the, err, Sunnis are in the majority (pretty sure it's the Sunnis, but I'm brain farting on this. Might be the Shiites).

So, of course, everyone is in it for themselves, none of these three factions get along, and they have unequal resources at their disposal.

This, in sum, is a recipe for either a strong federal government, or a complete disaster.

Imbalance of resources and economic disparity is the SINGLE most important thing that cause the American civil war as well. Without a relatively strong federal government to redistribute and equalize wealth, to some degree, a country is unlikely to be permanently sustainable.

Good job Bush, you f'ng moron. American lives and untold billions of dollars expended, and for what? A large, unstable, oil rich country in the heart of the Middle East that just BEGS for endless civil war or the rise of another brutal dictator. Well done. f**khead...

But, but, but they will welcome us with flowers and candy when we invade and impose our will.

[Taco John]

I personally don't care if their democracy is a farce just so long as they pass this constitution...

[Amnorix]

I personally don't care if their democracy is a farce just so long as they pass this constitution...

I don't care what they do so long as:

1. The government holds together and doesn't completely break down;

2. the government is at least neutral, if not friendly, towards Western powers; and

3. the country is capable of resisting beinging a pawn of other regional players, especially Iran.

Aside from that, it would be good if they didn't have a mass-murdering f**khead in charge, but honestly, my standards/expectations are generally pretty low right now for this whole quagmire.

[Eye Patch]

Wow Taco and Amnorix kinda hoping for the best in Iraqi.

Are you guys feeling okay?

[Taco John]

Wow Taco and Amnorix kinda hoping for the best in Iraqi.

Are you guys feeling okay?



I always have hoped for the best in Iraq. I just never believed that Bush was competent enough to deliver it.

[Taco John]

Aw crap! It turns out they actually want real democracy! This sucks...



Iraqi Lawmakers Reverse Move to Lower Bar for Charter Approval

By ROBERT F. WORTH and SABRINA TAVERNISE
Published: October 5, 2005
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 5 - Iraq's Parliament voted today to cancel a last-minute rule change that would have made it almost impossible for Iraq's new constitution to fail in the upcoming national referendum.

The reversal came a day after United Nations official in Baghdad told Shiite and Kurdish leaders that the new rule was a violation of international election standards. Sunni Arab leaders who oppose the constitution had also criticized the rule change, saying it amounted to rigging the referendum in advance.

The Shiite and Kurdish leaders capitulated today, with 119 of 157 legislators voting to cancel the rule change. But Shiite leaders said they were still deeply concerned about whether the vote would be fair, and they left the door open to challenging the results if the constitution fails on Oct. 15.

The Shiite leaders said they believed insurgents might manipulate the vote through selective violence. They said they had agreed to cancel the change only after securing a promise from the Iraqi government that it would prevent that from happening.

The dispute over the referendum has already sharpened sectarian divisions over the constitution, and the uneasy resolution today seemed to open the door to further dissension, especially if the violence grows worse.

The Shiite leaders gave no hint about what standard they would use in judging the legitimacy of the vote, which is almost certain to be accompanied by major insurgent attacks.

Just hours after legislators debated the constitution in Baghdad, a bomb in Hilla, south of Baghdad, tore through a Shiite mosque, killing at least 25 people and wounding more than 87, police officials said. The bomb was placed near the entrance to the Ibn Al-Nama mosque and detonated just as the call to prayer began, marking the first day of the holy month of Ramadan for Shiites, said Ahssan al-Khalidi, spokesman for the Hilla police department.

Some Sunni Arab leaders, who had threatened to boycott the referendum after hearing of the rule change, expressed relief about today's vote. But many remained angry that the change had been made in the first place.

"We've had a little fiasco in the national assembly," said Sadoon al-Zubaidy, a Sunni who was included on the constitutional committee. "It seems to be over."

A spokesman for the United Nations Secretary General's office in New York, Farhan Haq, said today: "We are pleased that they so swiftly took this decision. We had informed them of our concerns about the previous change made on Sunday. It seems that the Iraqi National Assembly was willing to hear our arguments and that they were willing to make the changes necessary to bring the election law back into line with international standards."

"The language that had been used on Sunday created a bit of a contradiction," Mr. Haq said. "That confusion has now been cleared up."

The dispute began on Sunday, when the Iraqi Parliament quietly adopted new rules stating that the constitution would fail only if two-thirds of registered voters rather than two-thirds of those actually casting ballots rejected it in at least three provinces.

Shiite and Kurdish lawmakers said they were concerned that if insurgent violence led to a low turnout, a small number of people in three provinces could reject the document even if much greater numbers elsewhere supported it. But their change would have raised the bar for the document's opponents so high that passage would have been almost guaranteed.

The change also designated two different meanings for the word "voters" in a single passage of Iraq's transitional law where the word appears to mean the same thing. The United Nations, which is supervising the referendum vote, said the new rules violated international election standards and pressured Shiite and Kurdish leaders to reconsider it.

After the vote, Hussein al Shahristani, the acting speaker and a Shiite, made clear that Shiite leaders remained deeply concerned about violence during the vote and about the possibility that insurgents would distort the outcome by selectively targeting Shiite areas. He cited threatening leaflets being handed out by the terrorist group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia in Balad, a Shiite town in a province that has a mixed Sunni and Shiite population.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/international/middleeast/05cnd-iraq.html?hp

[Taco John]

This thing better fuggen pass...

[Eye Patch]

I sure hope this is true..

Iraqi charter gains wide backing

By Andrew Quinn
REUTERS NEWS AGENCY
October 5, 2005

BAGHDAD -- Recent polling shows widespread support for a new Iraqi constitution to be voted on Oct. 15, even in strongholds of Sunni Arab groups that are fighting to derail the charter.

Mehdi Hafedh, director of the Iraqi Center for Development and International Dialogue, said his latest survey showed that Iraqis are exhausted by the continuing violence and that most are hoping the new constitution will be a first step toward the restoration of order.

"The Iraqi people want to finalize the political process as soon as possible. ... They want to establish a normal government and institutions," Mr. Hafedh said yesterday, adding: "Iraqis want this situation to end. It is untenable."

The poll of 3,625 Iraqis, conducted Sept. 14 to 19, showed 79 percent in favor of the draft constitution and 8 percent opposed. The remainder did not respond.

A high percentage of respondents said they intended to vote and that the level of violence likely would be reduced after the referendum.

Iraq's parliament, which is controlled by Shi'ites and Kurds, reinterpreted the rules for the balloting during the weekend in what was seen as a bid to ensure that the constitution could not be blocked by the Sunni minority.

A provision originally intended to give a veto to the Kurds says the referendum can be defeated by a two-thirds "no" vote in any three provinces. Sunnis constitute a majority in four provinces.

The National Assembly ruled Sunday that it would require two-thirds of registered voters in those provinces to defeat the referendum, as opposed to two-thirds of votes cast. But it also ruled that a simple majority of votes cast overall was sufficient for approval of the constitution.

Jose Aranaz, a legal adviser to the U.N. electoral team in Iraq, said yesterday that the United Nations had expressed objections to the assembly "and to the leadership of the government and told them that the decision that was taken was not acceptable and would not meet international standards."

"Hopefully, by [today], the situation will be clarified," he said.

"They cannot have a double interpretation in the same sentence," Mr. Aranaz added. "The interpretation, which we asked for 2 1/2 months ago, came late, and it came wrong."

The assembly's ruling threatened to further alienate Sunnis, many of whom are opposed to the constitution and are hoping to defeat it in the referendum.

But the polling by the Iraqi Center for Development and International Dialogue -- a nonprofit organization funded partially by the United Nations -- indicated that the referendum was headed for passage regardless of the Sunday parliamentary action.

"The part that surprised me was the percentage of supporters for the referendum. I didn't expect that," said Mr. Hafedh, who was minister of planning under interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.

Although support for the constitution was particularly high in the northern Kurdish areas and southern regions dominated by Shi'ites, Mr. Hafedh said it topped 50 percent even in central provinces known as the heartland of Sunni unrest -- a sign, he said, that the Sunni-Shi'ite split is not as wide as many fear.

"This is exaggerated by political elites who are seeking power and by Western media and analysts," Mr. Hafedh said. "If you go down to the streets, you can't tell who is Sunni and who is Shi'ite. We are all mixed."

He said most opponents of the constitution cited reasons ranging from Iraq's lack of sovereignty to poor security, while far fewer cited explicit political concerns over the document.

Mr. Hafedh conceded that it sometimes was difficult to gauge the precise political views of Iraq's voters and that many poll respondents might have been influenced by religious leaders who have called for supporting the constitution

[Taco John]

That's good news.

[Taco John]

ah dammit... I hope this isn't true...

Iraqi minister says he expects constitution to be defeated

PUTRAJAYA, Malaysia: Iraq's industry minister, one of his country's top Sunni Arabs, predicted Friday that voters at this weekend's historic referendum will reject the draft constitution despite amendments designed to win Sunni Arab support.

"If the Iraqis are given the opportunity to vote freely, they will say no,'' Industry Minister Osama al-Najafi said during a visit to Malaysia.

"The constitution does not represent the aspirations of all Iraqi people. ... I think the constitution will not be passed.'' Several amendments to the document adopted Wednesday by Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish lawmakers were "not enough to rectify the constitution,'' al-Najafi told reporters.

Sunnis account for only 20 percent of Iraq's 27 million people, but they have the majority in at least four of Iraq's 18 provinces.

If two-thirds of voters in any three provinces reject the charter Saturday, the constitution will fail.

The last-minute changes to the draft constitution does not meet all of the Sunni demands - primarily for a clear assertion of Iraq's Arab identity and a reduction of wide powers accorded to provincial governments that Sunnis say could lead to Iraq's breakup.

If the charter is adopted, a general election will be held in two months to elect a full-term parliament.

If it is defeated, an election will still be held in December but only for another interim chamber that will try again to draft a charter. - AP

Latest from AP-Wire

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/10/14/nation/20051014142138&sec=nation

[Extra Point]

Iraq: Shiites,Sunnis. Northern Ireland: Roman Catholics, Anglicans.

One man's trash is another's true religion. Deflection of hatred against each of the sects against someone else is the only way to temporarily see any peace. We are the ones to whom these sects are deflecting their hatred. We need to be out of Iraq within 4-5 years, giving them plenty of time to unify them against us. Or will Baghdad be the next site for a permanent US AFB?

[SCChief]

ah dammit... I hope this isn't true...

Iraqi minister says he expects constitution to be defeated

PUTRAJAYA, Malaysia: Iraq's industry minister, one of his country's top Sunni Arabs, predicted Friday that voters at this weekend's historic referendum will reject the draft constitution despite amendments designed to win Sunni Arab support.

"If the Iraqis are given the opportunity to vote freely, they will say no,'' Industry Minister Osama al-Najafi said during a visit to Malaysia.

"The constitution does not represent the aspirations of all Iraqi people. ... I think the constitution will not be passed.'' Several amendments to the document adopted Wednesday by Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish lawmakers were "not enough to rectify the constitution,'' al-Najafi told reporters.

Sunnis account for only 20 percent of Iraq's 27 million people, but they have the majority in at least four of Iraq's 18 provinces.

If two-thirds of voters in any three provinces reject the charter Saturday, the constitution will fail.

The last-minute changes to the draft constitution does not meet all of the Sunni demands - primarily for a clear assertion of Iraq's Arab identity and a reduction of wide powers accorded to provincial governments that Sunnis say could lead to Iraq's breakup.

If the charter is adopted, a general election will be held in two months to elect a full-term parliament.

If it is defeated, an election will still be held in December but only for another interim chamber that will try again to draft a charter. - AP

Latest from AP-Wire

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/10/14/nation/20051014142138&sec=nation

Wait... so the way they have set their voting system, 3 provinces could hold the rest of the country's political advancement hostage?

[Taco John]

Excellent news from Aljazeera!

High Sunni turnout at polls


Sunday 16 October 2005, 19:10 Makka Time, 16:10 GMT

The high Sunni turnout for Iraq's constitutional referendum, coupled with the low level of violence, demonstrated that the United States was making strong progress in Iraq, the US ambassador to Iraq said.


"I think the important achievement of yesterday, which was a great day for Iraq, was that the Sunnis, who had not participated in the political process, did participate this time," Zalmay Khalilzad said on ABC television on Sunday.



"I think we are making good progress. Yesterday was a good indication that our approach to the Sunnis is producing results."



"This is the first time, yesterday, that they have participated in significant numbers," said Khalilzad, who had a key behind-the-scenes role in bringing about the draft and the referendum.



December elections



More than 61% of registered Iraqi voters took part in Saturday's referendum on a permanent constitution, which, if approved, will open the way for general elections in December for a new government.



Participation by Sunnis was in doubt due to their belief that key elements of the document would fragment the country into disparate ethnic sections.

Nevertheless, voting occured against a backdrop of relative calm, with violence that has engulfed Iraq for months dipping.



Khalilzad attributed the lull to successful security measures by Iraqi and coalition forces.



"Yesterday was indeed a good day," he said.



"What it also indicates is that violence is not the way to deal with problems, that violence is a dead-end street."



"With the continuous Sunni participation in the political process, and with Iraqi and coalition security forces isolating and defeating the insurgent, that's the recipe ... for success," the ambassador said.



Right direction



Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mussa said on Sunday that Iraq's vote on a draft constitution was a "step in the right direction", while noting the need for national reconciliation.



Mussa told a Cairo press conference that he hoped the results would soon be announced, but "in parallel, one must work towards national reconciliation, a general understanding of the country's future and the preservation of its territorial unity and stability and relations between its various communities."

An Arab League official said earlier that Mussa would travel to Iraq on Monday for talks aimed at preparing a "national dialogue" under the auspices of the pan-Arab organization.



Mussa refused to confirm the date of his visit.



A league delegation sent to Iraq to prepare for the visit was ambushed last Monday. Two Iraqi commandos guarding the convoy were killed and seven wounded.



Major step



Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw on Sunday hailed the weekend referendum as "a major step" on the path to creating a democratic and peaceful Iraq.



In a televised statement, Straw also called Saturday's vote "very good news for all Iraqis" and noted that "the whole process took place in remarkable calm given the overall security situation" in the country.

"What this referendum shows is the hunger of Iraqis to exercise the same rights that the rest of us have, democratic rights, and to defy the terrorists.



"Whatever the result, it is a major step on the way to establishing a democratic, and we hope, peaceful Iraq," Straw added.



An initial results forecast might be available within two days, with an unofficial tally on Thursday and a final announcement on 24 October, though that timeframe could change, senior electoral official Farid Ayyar said.

[Taco John]

Iraq vote turnout may cross 10 million


Turnout in Iraq's constitutional referendum may have crossed 10 million voters, or nearly two-thirds of those registered.




"I think it could be more than 10 million, I think, I hope," Farid Ayar, one of seven commissioners on the Electoral Commission, said on Saturday.


"I was thinking that maybe we could get around 11 million voters. But Iraqis are getting more used to going and voting now, so perhaps it was a little bit quieter ... and it was Ramadan," he said, referring to the Muslim fasting month.



If 10 million of the eligible 15.5 million voters cast ballots, that would give a turnout of about 65%, higher than the 58% recorded in January's election, the first held after Saddam Hussein's overthrow.



Sunni vote



Sunni Arabs voted in surprisingly high numbers, many of them hoping to defeat it in an intense competition with Shia and Kurds.



The higher-than-forecast Sunni turnout made it possible the vote would be close - or even go the other way - and cast doubt on US hopes that the charter would succeed in moving Sunnis away from the ongoing violence.


Sunni Arabs voted in surprisingly
high numbers


The bar to defeat the constitution is high: The opponents must get a two-thirds vote in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces. They are likely to reach that threshold in the vast Sunni heartland of al-Anbar province in the west.



They must win the other two from among the provinces of Salah al-Din, Ninevah or Diyala, north of Baghdad.



Each of those provinces has a Sunni Arab majority, but they also have significant Shia or Kurdish minorities.



Commissioner Ayar said voting had gone well, despite hiccups in some areas, particularly al-Anbar province, west of Baghdad, where armed men exchanged fire with US and Iraqi troops in the city of Ramadi.



Al-Anbar centres closed



"In Anbar, we couldn't open all the centres. There were 207 centres that were supposed to open there and I think we opened 144," he said.



Later he said about 5850 of the planned 6230 polling sites nationwide had opened.



"But the problems were not very big and we are very happy that we finished the process without hearing that anybody was killed in the streets."




Officials say eight of Iraq's 18
provinces saw turnout above 66%

At a news conference, the Electoral Commission officials said eight of Iraq's 18 provinces saw turnout above 66%.



In seven provinces, turnout was between 33% and 66%.



Two provinces indicated a turnout below 33%, the officials said. No data was available for al-Anbar.



Speaking to Aljazeera from the western town of al-Qaim, an Iraqi journalist, Falih Abd al-Karim reported: "There were no polling centres in the town so we could not participate in the process."



Because of the US military operation Iron Fist, residents of al-Qaim - estimated to be more than 150,000 - were unable to vote, Abd al-Karim said.



The journalist added that if residents had been able to vote, most had intended to vote against the constitution.



In the western town of Rawa, to the east of al-Qaim, a polling centre was open and attendance was high.



Abd al-Karim reported that most locals had voted against the constitution.



In Haditha, two centres opened but attendance was poor because of the intense presence of US and Iraqi forces, with Humvees and armed vehicles parked in front of each centre.



High turnout had been expected in the Shia Muslim south and the Kurdish north, and low turnout in Sunni Arab areas.



Counting started



Ballot counting has already begun. Commissioner Ayar said he expected that the commission would be able to release partial results on Monday, and a final, but still uncertified, tally on 20 October.



"All of the monitors we talked to said that everything had gone well and that there were no serious problems"

Farid Ayar,
electoral commissioner


Asked whether the election had been free and fair, Ayar said the international and United Nations' monitors had told electoral commission staff that they were satisfied.



"All of the monitors we talked to said that everything had gone well and that there were no serious problems," he said.



Ayar gave no clues about the results, but polling centre directors in some areas were more forthcoming.



At the Sajdat voting centre in Najaf province, the director said that of 3125 registered voters 2099 had cast their ballots.



All but 30 had voted yes - an approval of more than 98%.



In Miqdadiya, in Diyala province north of Baghdad, the head of Konoz polling centre said 2166 voters were registered, of whom only 366 turned up, 299 of them voting no and 67 yes.



In Yathrib, a Sunni mostly Arab town north of Baghdad, 3500 people voted, with 3497 of them voting no and just three yes.

[SCChief]

Yeah. A lot of the stories I am hearing out of Iraq now indicate that preliminary numbers show 2 of the 4 Sunni-majority provinces shot it down, when they needed 3. Indications are that the other two actually were not that close.

Will be interesting to see the final votes.

It was VERY nice to see so little violence when so many people were out in the open. Just wish they could keep the violence down there.