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cdcox
10-17-2005, 05:41 PM
Well, I was hoping that I would be ready to distribute software by now. Way too much to do at work is going to put that offf for a couple of weeks, at least. Here are some screen shots from my software that describes the playoff and post season picture right now. In these predictions, I assumed Indy wins tonight.

Screenshots will be attached in an early post in this thread.

cdcox
10-17-2005, 05:54 PM
Finally. Took a bit of resizing.

Rain Man
10-17-2005, 06:24 PM
Kill the messenger! Kill the messenger, I say!

Lurch
10-17-2005, 06:38 PM
Your software has a fuggin' glitch, dude.

cdcox
10-17-2005, 06:40 PM
Your software has a fuggin' glitch, dude.

Only one? Awesome! ROFL

DanT
10-17-2005, 06:46 PM
Thanks, cdcox!

cdcox
10-17-2005, 06:48 PM
Kill the messenger! Kill the messenger, I say!


I'm not too worried. You still haven't done away with the Nasty fin fan on the other thread.

Lurch
10-17-2005, 06:53 PM
Only one? Awesome! ROFL

A really big on though. Strength of schedule and home and away records...

That and it's hard to quantify Plummer's boneheadedness.

cdcox
10-17-2005, 07:00 PM
A really big on though. Strength of schedule and home and away records...

That and it's hard to quantify Plummer's boneheadedness.

Home and away is factored in. Streghth of schedule is also considered both in terms of games played so far, and for predicting outcomes of games for the rest of the season.

Player variances, such as Plummer's (hopefully) coming melt down, are not considered in the forecasts. That would be very difficult in incorporate in an objective way.

Lurch
10-17-2005, 07:00 PM
Home and away is factored in. Streghth of schedule is also considered both in terms of games played so far, and for predicting outcomes of games for the rest of the season.

Player variances, such as Plummer's (hopefully) coming melt down, are not considered in the forecasts. That would be very difficult in incorporate in an objective way.

Fair enough. Interesting.

Rain Man
10-17-2005, 07:24 PM
Well, there has to be something else wrong with it, then. It's not showing the Chiefs as the best team in the league.

cdcox
10-18-2005, 09:04 AM
bump for the day crew

cdcox
10-22-2005, 08:35 PM
Here's an update based on Kansas Cities big win in Miami last night:

Our chances of winning the division increased from about 10% to about 24% and our chances of makeing the playoffs climbed from 35% to about 60%. Still our odds of winning the Super Bowl are less than 4%. I'll post another set of screen shots after this week's games.

Rain Man
10-23-2005, 09:03 AM
Okay, you're moving in the right direction. I'm still not going to believe this model until it gets the Chiefs up to 100 percent, though.

Skip Towne
10-23-2005, 09:08 AM
Seedy, haven't you learned by now not to argue with Rainman? He's a statistical genious.

Extra Point
10-23-2005, 09:10 AM
Is there a "wise up, finally, pound the rock, and don't run any cute trick plays" option in the program?

Rain Man
10-23-2005, 09:11 AM
Seedy, haven't you learned by now not to argue with Rainman? He's a statistical genious.


Oh, by the way, I didn't win the powerball again, dammit. I can't figure out why.

Skip Towne
10-23-2005, 09:30 AM
Oh, by the way, I didn't win the powerball again, dammit. I can't figure out why.
Don't you usually take Sunday off? It seems strange seeing you here on Sunday.

morphius
10-23-2005, 09:33 AM
Glad to see you brought this back, I was wondering where it was this year.

SNR
10-23-2005, 10:24 AM
Don't you usually take Sunday off? It seems strange seeing you here on Sunday.He's just doing what the Lord asked him to do, you ****ing heathen!

Rain Man
10-23-2005, 10:41 AM
My religion doesn't allow me to type on Sundays, so I have to hire some kid to do it. It's usually easier to just not mess with it.

cdcox
10-23-2005, 07:03 PM
After Sunday's games:

Odds of KC winning division: 30% (Denver still the odds on favorite)
Odds of KC making playoffs: 61%
Odds of KC getting first round bye: 16%

I'll post a full update after the game has been played Monday.

Rain Man
10-23-2005, 07:17 PM
There's a 61 percent chance that the sleeping giant has awakened.

cdcox
10-25-2005, 01:57 PM
Here is the OFFICIAL update after week 7. Some of the numbers are a few percentage points different than what I posted over the weekend because I'm still tinkering with the power ratings. Rain Man won't be happy with the direction.

chiefqueen
10-25-2005, 05:36 PM
You need to tweak it some. You need to figure out a way to increase New England's changes (you have them currently 7th) & decrease the chances of KC, JAX, PITT, DEN, and Cincy. One of those five will miss the playoffs.

Figuring that Indy & NE will make b/c the rest of their respective divisions suck.

steelyeyed57
10-25-2005, 06:12 PM
have you ever tested the reliability of those numbers? Run them based on this same week of the season from last year and see how the results compare to what actually happened. Hopefully, they are way off, if they're not, I don't want to hear about it.

cdcox
10-25-2005, 09:24 PM
Chiefqueen and steelyeyed57: remember that these are probability predictions not absolute. So I would expect some of the top 6 in each conference to fade away and others to take their place by the end of the season.

Here is a thread that shows the week by week predictions last year:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=102518

Here is an evaluation of the accuarcy of predictions from the 2002 season.

Rain Man
10-25-2005, 09:38 PM
It seems odd that it went down after a Chiefs win, combined with losses by the Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Chargers, and others.

cdcox
10-25-2005, 09:52 PM
It seems odd that it went down after a Chiefs win, combined with losses by the Dolphins, Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Chargers, and others.


Compare to the odds after week 6, as posted in the second post in the thread. Overall the odds got a whole lot better. There were a couple anomolies in the 60% odds I was posting between KC's win and Monday night's game.