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shaneo69
11-02-2005, 10:18 AM
GRETZ: A Look Ahead
Nov 02, 2005, 8:20:27 AM by Bob Gretz

From the time the NFL schedule is released in the spring, itís part of the discussion between football fans. Whether sitting at the bar, or in the break room at work, or during a chat on the internet, discerning fans love to look at the schedule and predict which games their team will win and lose.

So letís be honest, oh fans of the red and gold: when the Chiefs 2005 schedule was released, just how many victories did you give this team after seven games?

Iím willing to bet the Chiefs 4-3 record right now is pretty close to what most fans predicted. Based on last season and the changes that were made coming into this schedule, there really arenít any surprises in the outcomes of the seven games so far.

Now, everyone knows the Chiefs should be 5-2 right now. A good team just doesnít blow an 18-point lead at home, as they did to the Eagles. That game could come back to haunt them in the first days of January.

Otherwise, that 4-3 record is just about where the Chiefs should be, based on how theyíve played and the opponents theyíve faced. They are still in the hunt for a spot in the playoffs and they also have the team ahead of them in the division Ė Denver Ė coming to Arrowhead.

But if the Chiefs are going to be a factor in January, they must be standing at 7-3 by the end of business on Sunday, November 20th. That means they must win their next three games: against Oakland this Sunday, on the road in Buffalo and then on the road again for a Sunday night game against Houston.

On paper, the Chiefs are better than all three of these teams. The Raiders may have won two in a row, but they are still 3-4 on the season and the Chiefs have won five in a row against the silver and black. Buffalo is a disappointing 3-5 with a woeful offense, while Houston is 1-6 right now and only able to beat another bottom dweller in Cleveland last Sunday.

It really comes down to this: if the Chiefs canít win these next three games, they arenít going to be a factor in the race to the playoffs.

Indianapolis has jumped ahead of everyone in the conference thanks to an easy opening schedule: only two of their first seven opponents have a winning record. Thatís not the case over the last half of the season. The Colts face six teams with winning records over the last nine games, with four of those on the road. It starts for Indy this coming Monday night with a trip to New England.

At the other end of the spectrum is Jacksonville, as they have only one game left against a team with a winning record Ė Indianapolis Ė and thatís at home.

The Chiefs last six games are against teams that have winning records right now. Itís a tough, tough stretch, but four of those six are at home and two are out of the conference against Dallas and the New York Giants.

Put it this way: if the Chiefs can win the next three, and then win the four home games left on their schedule, they would finish 11-5 and they would make the playoffs. Iím betting they might have a chance to win the division.

Denver has trips left to Oakland, Dallas, Buffalo, San Diego and the Chiefs. San Diego has two more trips to the East Coast (NY Jets and Washington) and finishes the schedule at Indianapolis, at Kansas City and then Denver at home.

First things first: if the Chiefs want a place at the party, they must win the next three games.

Rausch
11-02-2005, 10:23 AM
Seems pretty reasonable to me...

HemiEd
11-02-2005, 10:37 AM
Pretty well sums it up IMO.

ptlyon
11-02-2005, 10:38 AM
Put it this way: if the Chiefs can win the next three, and then win the four home games left on their schedule, they would finish 11-5 and they would make the playoffs. Iím betting they might have a chance to win the division.

So if we win 7 of the next 9 they will be in the playoff hunt?

BRILLIANT!

Mr. Kotter
11-02-2005, 10:39 AM
Gretz seems to be making a concerted effort to be reasonable.

siberian khatru
11-02-2005, 10:49 AM
Makes perfect sense. I still think we're a 9-7/8-8 team, but I hope to be proven wrong.

Chiefs haven't really stepped up yet. Maybe the Oakland game. Maybe the Miami game because of the circumstances. But they laid eggs in three big games. I want to see them beat Denver and SD at home and beat either the Giants or the Cowboys on the road.

Well, actually I just want to see them beat Oakland this weekend. I don't see that as anywhere near a confident "W."

milkman
11-02-2005, 10:54 AM
Gretz fails to recognize one important fact, even though he points it out in his article.

Good teams don't blow 18 point leads at home.

So even if the Chiefs do win the next three, and do finish the season with a record of 11-5 and get into the playoffs, the question for me at that time will be "Is this a good team?".

ROYC75
11-02-2005, 10:55 AM
I don't want to see another loss this year, period.

Is this asking too much ?

MichaelH
11-02-2005, 11:03 AM
"First things first: if the Chiefs want a place at the party, they must win the next three games."

That about sums it up right there.

jynni
11-02-2005, 11:04 AM
I don't want to see another loss this year, period.

Is this asking too much ?
Actually - one more loss would be acceptable because there's no way in hell that I'd want to deal with the 13-3 monkey again.

Extra Point
11-02-2005, 11:08 AM
Who is it that puts "7-9" in his sig? I'm afraid he's right, but I sure hope he's wrong, to the tune of at least 9-7. Anything better than that is a bonus, IMHO.

siberian khatru
11-02-2005, 11:10 AM
Actually - one more loss would be acceptable because there's no way in hell that I'd want to deal with the 13-3 monkey again.

OMG, can you imagine what this place would be like if the Chiefs hosted a home playoff game riding a 9-game winning streak and sporting a 13-3 record?

Yeah, let's try 12-4 for a change. :)

Tuckdaddy
11-02-2005, 11:12 AM
Very true.

milkman
11-02-2005, 11:12 AM
Actually - one more loss would be acceptable because there's no way in hell that I'd want to deal with the 13-3 monkey again.

There is no 13-3 monkey.

The monkey is bad coaching.

shaneo69
11-02-2005, 11:18 AM
So even if the Chiefs do win the next three, and do finish the season with a record of 11-5 and get into the playoffs, the question for me at that time will be "Is this a good team?".

If we are 11-4 and then blow an 18 point lead in the final game to end up 11-5, we will not be considered a good team. But in any other case, if we finish 11-5, I think we can chalk that Eagles game up to an early season flub and say we are a good team.

I will be disappointed if we don't go 11-5. We should win our remaining games at Arrowhead, and we should beat Buffalo and Houston on the road. Why shouldn't we go 11-5?