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View Full Version : 10-6 might be good enough to make the playoffs


cdcox
11-15-2005, 01:09 AM
I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it.

My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.

SoCalBronco
11-15-2005, 01:15 AM
The AFC has become very cutthroat the last couple years. 9-7 doesnt come close to cutting it anymore. 10-6 has only been good enough to get us a couple trips into that damn dome in Indy. Meanwhile 8-8 wins you divisions in some parts of the NFC. Damn.

MadMax
11-15-2005, 01:15 AM
I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it.

My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.


Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?

tk13
11-15-2005, 01:18 AM
Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?
If we ran the table against the schedule we face to actually get in? Heck yeah.

cdcox
11-15-2005, 01:20 AM
The AFC has become very cutthroat the last couple years. 9-7 doesnt come close to cutting it anymore. 10-6 has only been good enough to get us a couple trips into that damn dome in Indy. Meanwhile 8-8 wins you divisions in some parts of the NFC. Damn.

Chicago will probaly have more than 8 wins this year. The division to watch is the AFC east, where 8 wins by NE would more than likely take the division (65% of the time). Other teams in that division would most likely need 9 wins because of the tiebreakers.

cdcox
11-15-2005, 01:21 AM
Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?

NO. In fact, I wouldn't bet a nickle on them making 10-6 or even making the playoffs.

Der Flöprer
11-15-2005, 01:27 AM
Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?



Took the words right out of my mouth. Or close to it anyway. Anyone who is still holding out hope for a playoff appearance by this team is dreaming. Mark my post.

tk13
11-15-2005, 01:30 AM
Well, if you want a positive spin on it... First of all we take care of business in Houston, which if we don't do that it's over anyway. After that, we just run the table at Arrowhead, and split the road games. We do that, we're 11-5. Those four home games are all gonna be tough though, no doubt. Even if we dropped one of them we could finish 3-1 at home and split those road games... we'd be 10-6. I really think we're a bit behind the 8 ball right now, but I don't think we're dead yet. If we just take care of business at home, we'll give ourselves a shot at least.

MadMax
11-15-2005, 01:35 AM
If we ran the table against the schedule we face to actually get in? Heck yeah.


Ok! I'd take that bet and raise you whatever! This team absolutely sucks! There are however bright spots.. ie LJ. ummm Mitchel, Allens fun to watch, DJ will be a player in the NFL, I will miss Priest,Trich,Roaf, And Shields...I'm just saying after 30 + years this shit gets really old... Sad part being I have NO choice in the team I support just like you guys.

MadMax
11-15-2005, 01:38 AM
Well, if you want a positive spin on it... First of all we take care of business in Houston, which if we don't do that it's over anyway. After that, we just run the table at Arrowhead, and split the road games. We do that, we're 11-5. Those four home games are all gonna be tough though, no doubt. Even if we dropped one of them we could finish 3-1 at home and split those road games... we'd be 10-6. I really think we're a bit behind the 8 ball right now, but I don't think we're dead yet. If we just take care of business at home, we'll give ourselves a shot at least.



Ok! TK first I have to ask how long??? Sorry that is a question I need to kmow before I argue any longer lol It beats you down after a while It is true....

Gaz
11-15-2005, 06:51 AM
10-6 might get a team in the playoffs, but I do not see the Chiefs going 10-6 with this Offense.

And whodathunk it would be the Offense that hobbled us this season?

Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline.

Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense.

The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen.

I fear that the “window of opportunity” was closed by the injuries to Roaf & Shields.

I will remain hopeful [because hope does not require a reasoned, logical foundation] until we are mathematically eliminated, but I just cannot see us in the playoffs with this OL this season.

xoxo~
Gaz
Clinging to hope, but facing cold, hard reality.

FringeNC
11-15-2005, 07:46 AM
10-6 might get a team in the playoffs, but I do not see the Chiefs going 10-6 with this Offense.

And whodathunk it would be the Offense that hobbled us this season?

Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline.

Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense.

The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen.

I fear that the “window of opportunity” was closed by the injuries to Roaf & Shields.

I will remain hopeful [because hope does not require a reasoned, logical foundation] until we are mathematically eliminated, but I just cannot see us in the playoffs with this OL this season.

xoxo~
Gaz
Clinging to hope, but facing cold, hard reality.



Wretched offense? Sure, they were wretched against Buffalo, but other than that one outlier? Look at the season stats. And when Sampson/Roaf take over for Black....

wolfpack0735
11-15-2005, 07:58 AM
there`s hope they`ll make the playoffs. there`s hope they will win in the playoffs,with this O-line and theres always hope i`ll win the lotto. both have about the same odds it seems. but like buying latto tickets i`ll keep hoping the chiefs make the playoffs.

Gaz
11-15-2005, 08:01 AM
The Offense has been inconsistent since the season opener. They have been a pale shadow of their former selves.

Personally, I doubt Roaf will be back. And even if he is, he will not be as effective. Better than Black? Sure. Good enough for this Offense to return to form? I doubt it.

And Sampson [despite his name] is hardly cause for celebration. He has not been able to get onto the field. He is unlikely to elevate our crappy OL when/if he does play.

I think wretched is appropriate.

xoxo~
Gaz
Not getting value from the O.

Duck Dog
11-15-2005, 08:06 AM
We can't beat a bad Bills team....there is no way we are playoff caliber. Our Oline can not pass block. Our receivers can not get open. Our revamped defensive back field can not stop the pass. The only reason we have had some success in stopping the run is because everyone throws on us.

Extra Point
11-15-2005, 08:07 AM
10-6 would be good enough to make the playoffs, in the NFC East. I thought a month ago that 9-7 was going to be the 2005 season record. It's more like 7-9 or 6-10.

I hope that there will be an implosion between now and the first day of spring. Thanks, Dick, it's been interesting. Al, you've morphed into Don Coryell without the young linemen. Carl, you wore out the Super Bowl-bound sports car; it needs to be overhauled, because you didn't change the oil or lube the suspension. Guys, time for you and your friends to go. Gun, Frank Jr., you can stay.

Romeo Crennel, you want the job of head coach? Bill Bellichik, would you like to be our new GM?

Amnorix
11-15-2005, 08:47 AM
We can't beat a bad Bills team....there is no way we are playoff caliber. Our Oline can not pass block. Our receivers can not get open. Our revamped defensive back field can not stop the pass. The only reason we have had some success in stopping the run is because everyone throws on us.

The Bills aren't really bad. They're an average NFL team. They have some very good strengths, and some serious weaknesses. But they're hardly terrible.

Coogs
11-15-2005, 12:41 PM
Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline.

Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense.

The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen.

xoxo~
Gaz
Clinging to hope, but facing cold, hard reality.



They showed LJ stats rushing the ball to the Left-Middle-Right sides, shortly after halftime Sunday. I don't recall to the number what they were, but he had virtually all of his yardage up the middle.

And the play action pass was working effectively with the middle runs too. Once we got into relative scoring position on the field, AS abandoned that theory, ran to the outside, and had straight drop back passes. Neither of those two things were effective.

IMO, if we would let this OL plow straight ahead, and mix in basically nothing but the play action pass (Steve DeBerg days style of offense), I think we could make it work. Our defense has shown enough improvement to compliment that type of offense.

Redcoats58
11-15-2005, 02:47 PM
The only way I see the Chiefs winning enough games to get into the playoffs is if Willie Roaf can get healthy enough to play out the rest of the season. No Willie, no playoffs. Its that simple. This team is a night and day different team with him in.

Lurch
11-15-2005, 02:51 PM
We've gone from hopes of a Superbowl to hoping to make the playoffs. Disappointing and disgraceful.

StcChief
11-15-2005, 02:54 PM
10-6 not likely in AFC. Losing conf games.
don't help if a WC is all we got to hope for....a one and out.

Buffalo
Pats - ?
Cincy - ?

Dunit35
11-15-2005, 03:14 PM
I had some dude trying to tell me the NFC was a better conferance with more talant and thats why the records of teams are worse. WTF?

Redcoats58
11-15-2005, 03:16 PM
I had some dude trying to tell me the NFC was a better conferance with more talant and thats why the records of teams are worse. WTF?
Hehe, my boss said the same thing to me. He happens to be a Lions fan so what the hell does he know.

Nzoner
11-15-2005, 04:18 PM
We've gone from hopes of a Superbowl to hoping to make the playoffs. Disappointing and disgraceful.

And something we should be very used to by now.