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View Full Version : A graphical look at our playoff odds


cdcox
11-26-2005, 02:03 PM
I've added a new graphical feature to my playoff prediction software.

It allows a nice graphical look at our predicament, which I have included in an early post in this thread.

See my avatar if you want to use the software yourself.

cdcox
11-26-2005, 02:06 PM
Here is a histogram of the Chiefs predicted distribution of wins, shown in gray. Odds of making the playoffs are superimposed in color.

DanT
11-26-2005, 02:08 PM
That's a nice feature.

cdcox
11-26-2005, 02:09 PM
Here are the front runners for AFC North and the 2 WC positions. The Chiefs are shooting for the gray regions of these other teams.

We also have to beat out SD, but their histogram is mostly gray, like ours.

carlos3652
11-26-2005, 02:33 PM
So there is no possiblity that the Jags, Bengals or steelers will lose all their games, but the chiefs have a 2.5% to lose all of their remaining 6 games...

Great...

Mr. Laz
11-26-2005, 02:34 PM
I've added a new graphical feature to my playoff prediction software.

It allows a nice graphical look at our predicament, which I have included in an early post in this thread.

See my avatar if you want to use the software yourself.

nerd







:p jk

cdcox
11-26-2005, 02:36 PM
nerd







:p jk

Oh, absolutely. No joke. :)

phxchief
11-26-2005, 03:27 PM
Not many people are really even thinking about Pittsburgh but if they lose to Indy on MNF, they will be 7-4 and 6-4 vs. the AFC. If KC can beat the Patriots, they will also be 7-4 but 6-3 vs. the AFC, so just above Pittsburgh in terms of a wildcard. Of course, we need Washington to beat San Diego, but if the 'Skins could pull out a big W - we'd be ahead of them also.

People have already assumed Pittsburgh are making the playoffs, and granted, their schedule isn't killer - but it has some trap games - and I could see them finishing with another couple losses after Indy.

A couple weeks ago, I was thinking the AFC North has one wildcard wrapped up and we'd need to beat out San Diego and Jacksonville for the other. Now i'm thinking that Jacksonville has a wildcard in the bag due to their schedule, but we could very well beat out SD/Pittsburgh for the other.

4th and Long
11-26-2005, 03:31 PM
What? No pie chart?

cdcox
11-26-2005, 03:34 PM
What? No pie chart?

Pie is for eating. I've made thousands of graphs in my life. I can't remember the last time I made a pie chart. But I always like to give people what they want:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=5422

4th and Long
11-26-2005, 03:36 PM
Pie is for eating.
I could not have played a better straight man for the setup on the responce.

NICE WORK!

Douche Baggins
11-26-2005, 04:18 PM
cdox,

I don't know if you can do this, but can you see what our playoff chances would be if we went 11-5 but lost to Cincinatti?

cdcox
11-26-2005, 05:36 PM
gochiefs - You can do this yourself. After you download the power ratings, go to the first tabbed pane. Go down to where the unplayed games are. Select the winners for the unplayed games. Then, forecast the remainder of the season.

keg in kc
11-26-2005, 05:40 PM
Somebody needs to translate this into idiot for me.

HolmeZz
11-26-2005, 05:53 PM
We're more likely to lose out than win out. Sweet.

Rain Man
11-26-2005, 05:56 PM
Somebody needs to translate this into idiot for me.


We're....screwed.

Rain Man
11-26-2005, 05:58 PM
Quick question: is the colored part to be read as a proportion of the gray part? For example, if we win 10 games, are our odds (roughly) 11/19ths, as compared to almost 100% at 11 wins? That's the way I would read it, as opposed to the y axis.

Extra Point
11-26-2005, 06:34 PM
View the graphic, I now have a comical look at our playoff odds: reality.

Will be at the game tomorrow, for the first time in four years. Yay!!!

keg in kc
11-26-2005, 06:36 PM
Will be at the game tomorrow, for the first time in four years. Yay!!!Be prepared. If we lose...it's your fault.

Ultra Peanut
11-26-2005, 06:42 PM
On the bright side, Memphis is going bowling for the third straight year, enduring this season of attrition in which they lost 9 starters to season-ending injuries and all but six other starters to 1-3 game stretches.

So if the Chiefs DO somehow make things work... gravy.

Skip Towne
11-26-2005, 06:50 PM
On the bright side, Memphis is going bowling for the third straight year, enduring this season of attrition in which they lost 9 starters to season-ending injuries and all but six other starters to 1-3 game stretches.

So if the Chiefs DO somehow make things work... gravy.
What kind of bowl would want a team that can't beat Tulsa?

Ultra Peanut
11-26-2005, 06:58 PM
What kind of bowl would want a team that can't beat Tulsa?Lots of bowls like teams that will bring 10,000+ fans. Not that Kansas would know anything about traveling well to a bowl.

Though this is actually a strange year, due to Katrina. The New Orleans (Lafayette) and GMAC (Mobile) bowls -- to which the Tigers took ~17,000 and 12,000 in '03 and '04, respectively -- are actually going to be pressed to not stress the already over-stressed hotels down there, so the Tigers could be going anywhere from Ft. Worth to Detroit to Hawai'i.

Fresno State's losing at Nevada, though they've pulled it to within 8. If they collapse at the end of the year, the Liberty Bowl could even invite the Tigers to guarantee a sellout rather than relying on one of UCF or Tulsa's unproven traveling fanbases and the distant Bulldogs' to fill the place.

Skip Towne
11-26-2005, 07:03 PM
Lots of bowls like teams that will bring 10,000+ fans. Not that Kansas would know anything about traveling well to a bowl.

Though this is actually a strange year, due to Katrina. The New Orleans (Lafayette) and GMAC (Mobile) bowls -- to which the Tigers took ~17,000 and 12,000 in '03 and '04, respectively -- are actually going to be pressed to not stress the already over-stressed hotels down there, so the Tigers could be going anywhere from Ft. Worth to Detroit to Hawai'i.

Fresno State's losing at Nevada, though they've pulled it to within 8. If they collapse at the end of the year, the Liberty Bowl could even invite the Tigers to guarantee a sellout rather than relying on one of UCF or Tulsa's unproven traveling fanbases and the distant Bulldogs' to fill the place.
So they are invited for the money they bring. That would explain it.

Ultra Peanut
11-26-2005, 07:04 PM
So they are invited for the money they bring. That would explain it.Money makes the college sports world go 'round.

You don't think schools like Kansas and Baylor and Mississippi get their BCS checks because they deserve them, do you?

Skip Towne
11-26-2005, 07:25 PM
Money makes the college sports world go 'round.

You don't think schools like Kansas and Baylor and Mississippi get their BCS checks because they deserve them, do you?
No, I think everybody should give their money to Memphis. Well, if they could actually beat somebody that is.

Extra Point
11-26-2005, 07:30 PM
Be prepared. If we lose...it's your fault.
We've won every game I have been at Arrowhead. I have to look at the bright side of life

+

cdcox
11-26-2005, 07:36 PM
Quick question: is the colored part to be read as a proportion of the gray part? For example, if we win 10 games, are our odds (roughly) 11/19ths, as compared to almost 100% at 11 wins? That's the way I would read it, as opposed to the y axis.


Yes, the colored part is a proportion of the gray part. But reading from the y-axis is also correct. Out of all the possible outcomes, about 19% involve winning exactly 10 games. Also, about 11% of all possible outcomes involve winning ten games AND making the playoffs.

cdcox
11-26-2005, 07:38 PM
I should mention that my software cannot predict anything about the bowl prospects of Memphis or Tulsa.

Skip Towne
11-26-2005, 07:45 PM
I should mention that my software cannot predict anything about the bowl prospects of Memphis or Tulsa.
Off the radar, huh?

Ultra Peanut
11-26-2005, 07:45 PM
No, I think everybody should give their money to Memphis. Well, if they could actually beat somebody that is.We're 6-5 and going to our third straight bowl, despite losing our top two QBs in our first three games, our top two receivers (one to injury, one switching over to QB; top three receivers, actually, with Carlton Robinzine being burned by a grease fire a couple of weeks ago), two starting defensive linemen, and a plethora of other starters for the season; and your best comeback, you of the wins over powerhouses like Appalachian State, FAU, and Mizzou, is that we "can't beat anyone."

The NCAA's all-time all-purpose yardage leader just completed his last home game, a 26-3 win over Marshall, and is now leading his team to their third bowl in as many seasons. Call him and let him know they'd have your approval if they "could actually beat somebody."

Extra Point
11-27-2005, 04:11 PM
We've won every game I have been at Arrowhead. I have to look at the bright side of life

+
And the streak goes on........YESSSSS!!!