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View Full Version : Next Sunday's KC - DEN line


FringeNC
11-28-2005, 11:06 AM
The game is a pick'em and the total is 46.5. I am a little surprised. I thought Denver would be a favorite. Denver was a 2.5 point favorite at Dallas.

phxchief
11-28-2005, 11:29 AM
Obviously they value Arrowhead more than they do Texas stadium.

Deberg_1990
11-28-2005, 11:30 AM
When was the last time they won at Arrowhead?? That might have something to do with it.

ceebz
11-28-2005, 11:37 AM
Denver opened as a 1.5 point favorite.

Bob Dole
11-28-2005, 11:51 AM
Denver opened as a 1.5 point favorite.

Which is in line with Sagarin's "pure points".

BigRedChief
11-28-2005, 11:54 AM
Which is in line with Sagarin's "pure points".
So with the standard 3 points for home field the early money is that Denver is 4.5 points better than KC?

I would think it would be higher. KC has been up and down all year.

FringeNC
11-28-2005, 11:59 AM
Denver opened as a 1.5 point favorite.

Wow. The smart money (early bettors) must have pounded KC, because it is a pick'em now.

jspchief
11-28-2005, 12:02 PM
It's moved 1.5 in less than 24 hours? That's pretty uncommon unless there is an injury involved.

FringeNC
11-28-2005, 12:09 PM
It's moved 1.5 in less than 24 hours? That's pretty uncommon unless there is an injury involved.

Lines will move early if the opening line was bad. Typically, the pros cause the early line movements. Vegas essentially beta tests its line to a select group of pros, which tells Vegas if they need to move it. During the week, lines are usually stable (unless new information about injuries or the like hits the market). Then there are the game-day movements fueled by the public.

My take is that the pros don't like to bet against the Chiefs at home, even though the computer ratings say Denver should be favored.

Mile High Mania
11-28-2005, 12:23 PM
I was reading something in one of the Denver papers a few days ago... I *think* it said that Denver had only won at Arrowhead once under Shanahan and maybe only 2 or 3 times since 1994. I don't know if that counts the playoff game or not.

I just hope it's competitive... would love for Denver to win, obviously, but I'm going to be pretty realistic about this one and be happy they have 9 wins with upcoming games against the Raiders and Ravens in Denver and on the road vs the Bills. That could be 3 wins, should be 2 wins at minimum. So, 11-12 wins is still a possibility even if they lose @ KC and SD.

Anything could happen on Sunday, but it's a damn tough place to win if you're the visiting team.

Dave Lane
11-28-2005, 12:43 PM
Jeff Sagarin NFL ratings

Kansas City Chiefs = 24.31

Denver Broncos = 30.83

Dave

Lzen
11-28-2005, 01:22 PM
I was reading something in one of the Denver papers a few days ago... I *think* it said that Denver had only won at Arrowhead once under Shanahan and maybe only 2 or 3 times since 1994. I don't know if that counts the playoff game or not.

That's not true. I recall them winning at Arrowhead in 1997 playoffs, 1998(Monday Night meltdown) 2002, and...............oh......yeah. Well, that's 3 times under Shanny. Hopefully, that record stays intact this week. :)

Bob Dole
11-28-2005, 01:26 PM
Jeff Sagarin NFL ratings

Kansas City Chiefs = 24.31

Denver Broncos = 30.83

Dave

Actually,

In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.

Pure points puts Denver at 31.67 and KC at 29.9 (26.29 + 3.61) which is a difference of 1.77.

Bob Dole
11-29-2005, 09:58 AM
BTW - 88% of the bets are for Denver at the moment.

Rain Man
11-29-2005, 10:06 AM
That's not true. I recall them winning at Arrowhead in 1997 playoffs, 1998(Monday Night meltdown) 2002, and...............oh......yeah. Well, that's 3 times under Shanny. Hopefully, that record stays intact this week. :)


The article said that Denver is 1-14 at Arrowhead in December, over the lifetime of the two franchises. The only December victory in Arrowhead by the Broncos was an overtime win in 1994.

Denver might as well not show up.

sd4chiefs
11-29-2005, 12:17 PM
Just to be sure that the Chiefs win on Sunday I am going to put $100 down on Denver to win. I always lose sporting bets.

Lzen
11-29-2005, 12:30 PM
Ah, Denver can't win at Arrowhead in December. Cool.

BIG_DADDY
11-29-2005, 12:32 PM
I think this line will move to 4 by gameday. Hopefully Sims is in the lineup and productive.

Calcountry
11-29-2005, 12:49 PM
I was reading something in one of the Denver papers a few days ago... I *think* it said that Denver had only won at Arrowhead once under Shanahan and maybe only 2 or 3 times since 1994. I don't know if that counts the playoff game or not.

I just hope it's competitive... would love for Denver to win, obviously, but I'm going to be pretty realistic about this one and be happy they have 9 wins with upcoming games against the Raiders and Ravens in Denver and on the road vs the Bills. That could be 3 wins, should be 2 wins at minimum. So, 11-12 wins is still a possibility even if they lose @ KC and SD.

Anything could happen on Sunday, but it's a damn tough place to win if you're the visiting team.TG was on Rome yesterday, and he seemed pretty fired up about the team putting it together now.

I hope he is right.