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View Full Version : KC says Denver Secondary Stands Out


angryllama
12-02-2005, 01:34 PM
Secondary No Longer A Primary Concern
K.C. Joyner
espn.com
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2244786

One of the things I enjoy doing with my analysis is shedding light on players or units that aren't being accurately represented by the standard statistical analysis. The Denver Broncos secondary is a perfect example.

This unit is ranked 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game and is tied for 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed. The Broncos have the highest number of pass attempts against them, with nearly 40 per game. When you combine these statistics with the fact that two of the Broncos' top three cornerbacks are rookies, you can easily see why it might be perceived that the Broncos secondary is struggling.

How well are the Broncos cornerbacks playing? Have teams been able to target their rookies with success? A metric analysis shows that not only are these rookies more than holding their own, but Champ Bailey is also playing better than is generally thought.

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John_Wayne
12-02-2005, 01:36 PM
If their secondary is playing so well, why are they ranked 28th?

angryllama
12-02-2005, 01:38 PM
If their secondary is playing so well, why are they ranked 28th?


That's what the article is about. The guy took time to find out why, and came away impressed at how good Denver's top 3 corners are playing. Especially Bailey and Darrant Williams.

easymobee
12-02-2005, 01:40 PM
If their secondary is playing so well, why are they ranked 28th?

you didn't even read it .... did you?

-EDIT- Denver has had 438 passes thrown against them.

KC has had 399 passes thrown against them.

Oakland has had 353 passes thrown their way

SD has had 404 passes thrown their way.


Looking at those numbers its almost as if Denver has played an extra game or a game and a half than KC.

Mr. Laz
12-02-2005, 01:42 PM
impossible ... cornerbacks can not make an impact in their 1st season.

ptlyon
12-02-2005, 01:45 PM
First, let's take a look at rookie starting cornerback Darrent Williams. I have broken down nine of Denver's 11 games this season, with only the Philadelphia and N.Y. Jets games missing. Here are Williams' numbers in those nine games:

Would someone please 'splain why would he do this?

Was he out with an injury or something?

Dunit35
12-02-2005, 01:46 PM
There 2 rookies have looked good this season. Not Colts good though.

mike_b_284
12-02-2005, 01:48 PM
46 combined penalties for medium and long balls in 9 games = avg of 5. something a game

I am looking forward to cashing in on 5 deep pass interference flags

Seek
12-02-2005, 01:48 PM
If their secondary is playing so well, why are they ranked 28th?

Because teams are forced to throw on them because they can't run, and are behind.

It is also a reason why our defense is ranked so low. Teams can't run so they throw.

ChiefsFan4Life
12-02-2005, 01:51 PM
Would someone please 'splain why would he do this?

Was he out with an injury or something?

He did play (http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/423752/gamelogs/2005) so I'm not sure why those games were left out.

angryllama
12-02-2005, 01:51 PM
Would someone please 'splain why would he do this?

Was he out with an injury or something?

He didnt say why...he might not have had the tape of those two. That Jets game was probably Denver's most complete defensive showing, and Darrant Williams returned a pick 80 yards for a TD in the Philly game. Champ didnt play very much in the Philly game because he was still injured pretty badly, but did get juked by Owens on one play for a TD. I think that he probably left those two games out because he didnt have the tape.

HemiEd
12-02-2005, 01:55 PM
impossible ... cornerbacks can not make an impact in their 1st season.


If you draft enough of them, you are bound to find a keeper.






*bracing for the DT and WR hate for Carl*

ChiefsFan4Life
12-02-2005, 01:55 PM
He didnt say why...he might not have had the tape of those two. That Jets game was probably Denver's most complete defensive showing, and Darrant Williams returned a pick 80 yards for a TD in the Philly game. Champ didnt play very much in the Philly game because he was still injured pretty badly, but did get juked by Owens on one play for a TD. I think that he probably left those two games out because he didnt have the tape.

I'm not sure I buy that at all. A guy like him could SURELY get ahold of the game. Hell, if WE can get ahold of the game (torrents), you KNOW he can get it. All he has to do is ask I'm sure.

There has to be another reason.

angryllama
12-02-2005, 02:02 PM
I'm not sure I buy that at all. A guy like him could SURELY get ahold of the game. Hell, if WE can get ahold of the game (torrents), you KNOW he can get it. All he has to do is ask I'm sure.
There has to be another reason.


It could be that those games represent outliers (extreme statistics) in the sample. I doubt that that's the case because the sample size includes individual plays that are not taken in respect to where the plays fall on a continuum.

It could be because he didnt have time to watch them. You never know. He doesnt explain.

ChiefsFan4Life
12-02-2005, 02:03 PM
It could be that those games represent outliers (extreme statistics) in the sample. I doubt that that's the case because the sample size includes individual plays that are not taken in respect to where the plays fall on a continuum.

It could be because he didnt have time to watch them. You never know. He doesnt explain.

Maybe he "conveniently" forgot about those games because he wouldn't have any basis to his article ;)

Tuckdaddy
12-02-2005, 02:07 PM
Manning has already killed secondaries that are alot better than the rookie Donkeys. It will be the same story if they play this year.

angryllama
12-02-2005, 02:09 PM
Maybe he "conveniently" forgot about those games because he wouldn't have any basis to his article ;)


If you are a conspiracy theorist, this idea is probably something that is reasonable to you.

If you are a statistician, you dont leave out statistics.

Denver's secondary had like 3 or 4 picks in that Jets game. I know that Champ had one for certain.

angryllama
12-02-2005, 02:13 PM
Manning has already killed secondaries that are alot better than the rookie Donkeys. It will be the same story if they play this year.


He hasnt played a secondary/D-line combo as good as Denver's. Jacksonville has a great D-line, but doesnt have the secondary that Denver does. Manning and co. barely held on to beat Jacksonville 10-6 in their first game this season. Jacksonville was in the red zone as time expired.

Denver matches up pretty well with the Colts. They improved the two problem spots in their defense considerably. D-Line and CB.

easymobee
12-02-2005, 02:19 PM
Darrent Williams returned a pick 80 yards for a TD in the Philly game.

That was against Oakland, but you still have a valid point.

Eagles didn't do much to their #2 receiver in that game (R. Brown and G. Lewis combined for 3 catches 59 yards) and the NYJ game was a shutout (McCareins 5-73 and L.Coles 6-62).

Tuckdaddy
12-02-2005, 02:21 PM
He hasnt played a secondary/D-line combo as good as Denver's. Jacksonville has a great D-line, but doesnt have the secondary that Denver does. Manning and co. barely held on to beat Jacksonville 10-6 in their first game this season. Jacksonville was in the red zone as time expired.

Denver matches up pretty well with the Colts. They improved the two problem spots in their defense considerably. D-Line and CB.

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeease! Manning against rookies is a total mismatch, he will destroy them with Wayne and Stokely. Champ will cover Harrison and he usually held own but no way can your CB's hold them down.

Jax has a better secondary, not the other way around.

ptlyon
12-02-2005, 02:22 PM
If you are a statistician, you dont leave out statistics.


Then he is obviously not a statistician, so why are we reading it?

ChiefsFan4Life
12-02-2005, 02:22 PM
He hasnt played a secondary/D-line combo as good as Denver's. Jacksonville has a great D-line, but doesnt have the secondary that Denver does.

LOL! What an absolutely ludicrous statement.

FYI...Jacksonville's secondary that "isn't" Denver's is ranked 2nd. :rolleyes:

easymobee
12-02-2005, 02:24 PM
Official Stats vs Denver passing this year. 246-438 16tds and 14ints. 2636 passing yards.

If your team had a starting QB with those #'s, you'd most likely be talking about a QBOTF.

Here are the passing stats vs KC for those that are interested.

232-399 - 2646 passing yards - 19tds and 10 ints

*case in point*

Denver has faced 39 more passes (1 full game of Martz-Ball)

Given up 10 less yards and 3 fewer TD's

Intercepted the opposing QB 4 more times (this does include the NE game for the Chiefs).

Chief Faithful
12-02-2005, 02:50 PM
you didn't even read it .... did you?

-EDIT- Denver has had 438 passes thrown against them.

KC has had 399 passes thrown against them.

Oakland has had 353 passes thrown their way

SD has had 404 passes thrown their way.


Looking at those numbers its almost as if Denver has played an extra game or a game and a half than KC.

So can we deduce that while there pass defense if artificially low by the same logic there rush defense is artificially high? Or, are we trying to say that Denver's secondary is almost as good as KC's?

FringeNC
12-02-2005, 03:49 PM
I really like what KC Joyner is trying to do, which is to do with football what the Moneyball games have done with baseball.

He has certainly watched more tape of games, and run more numbers than I have, but I have a question. Wouldn't a defense's opposing QB rating be a pretty good measure of pass D? In this regard, Denver, again is a really good D. #10 with a 74.1 rating. We are #21 with a 85.0 rating (and by our standards, that is fantastic).

Denver does have a very good pass D, but it is not great.

On the ground Denver is not really better than us. We give up 3.9 yards per carry, and they give up 3.8. Both very respectable numbers.

To beat Denver Sunday, there are 2 keys in my mind. First, we need very good pass protection. Second, we need the crowd noise to bother to bother D's offense, which I think is almost a given. If it bothers Brady, it's going to bother Plummer. So, I think we win this game if Green has time to throw. Roaf being 100% is huge.

Chief Faithful
12-05-2005, 01:17 PM
Based on yesterday's game I can see why Denver's defense is ranked 28 pass defense. They sell out against the run and their dline is not good enough to prevent them from getting burned on the pass. Plus, John Lynch is more LB than safety so a good downfield passing team gets great matchups.

That poor ranking looks to be deserved.

Chiefs Pantalones
12-05-2005, 01:19 PM
Based on yesterday's game I can see why Denver's defense is ranked 28 pass defense. They sell out against the run and their dline is not good enough to prevent them from getting burned on the pass. Plus, John Lynch is more LB than safety so a good downfield passing team gets great matchups.

That poor ranking looks to be deserved.

If they play the Colts in the playoffs, they're going to get schooled again, probably worse.

htismaqe
12-05-2005, 01:27 PM
By the same token, as I mentioned MANY times, Denver's vaunted rush defense only LOOKS vaunted because they lead the league in fewest attempts against...

We did exactly what I thought we would yesterday -- expose them for the eighteenth-ranked rush defense they really are...

Kclee
12-05-2005, 01:32 PM
impossible ... cornerbacks can not make an impact in their 1st season.

Wow, you dug deep for that.

phxchief
12-05-2005, 01:39 PM
Foxworth stood out...... of Kennison's way when he burned his ass.

dirk digler
12-05-2005, 01:46 PM
The Chiefs have below average NFL WR's and they torched the Broncos for over 200 yds in receiving.

The Colts will bury you.

Lzen
12-05-2005, 01:56 PM
Wow, aren't we diggin up some real gems today. ROFL

CoMoChief
12-05-2005, 01:58 PM
Darrent Williams is gonna be a badass someday. How long that will take only time will tell. Holy crap I sound like DV.

Lzen
12-05-2005, 04:08 PM
Maybe he will be a badass cb someday. Or maybe he will end up will Willie Middlebrooks. ROFL

Amnorix
12-05-2005, 04:13 PM
All I know is that Darrent Williams played really damn well against the Patriots. Rotten little midget killed us. :(

Chief Faithful
12-06-2005, 12:22 PM
Darrent Williams is gonna be a badass someday. How long that will take only time will tell. Holy crap I sound like DV.

Maybe, but when your defense is designed to over sell on the run every play it takes one hell of a CB to be a badass. Trent was throwing down field to one-on-one matchups all day long. Do you even remember seeing Williams, Wilson, or Gold down the field at all during the game? The Donks live with 8 in the box defense.

Denver has played few good passing teams this season and they are still one of the worst at pass defense in the NFL. Either Indy or Cinci will torch the Donks in the Playoffs.

chiefqueen
12-06-2005, 12:31 PM
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