View Full Version : cbs.sportsline.com| KC favored to win against Denver - 51% (61%/simulations)

12-03-2005, 11:29 AM
GAME: Denver Broncos (9-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4).

TIME: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EST.

Arrowhead Stadium hasn't been a fun place to visit for the Denver Broncos in December, which arrives at just the right time for the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs seek their first three-game winning streak of the season when they host the first-place Broncos.

Denver holds a two-game lead over Kansas City and the San Diego Chargers in the AFC West, but is 1-12 in its last 13 December games at Arrowhead.

Kansas City, meanwhile, has won 16 straight December home games and is 34-4 in its last 38 at Arrowhead in December. The Chiefs' last home loss in this month was Dec. 15, 1996, against the Indianapolis Colts.

"Now, we've got 'em at the right place," Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil said. "There's no question that Arrowhead is a positive influence on a Kansas City Chiefs football team. Long before I ever got here, they established records in this stadium as of December 1st that are very tough to match. It's a very positive influence on how your football team plays and a negative influence on how an opponent plays."

The matchup with the Broncos could be viewed as a must-win for the Chiefs, who face a tough schedule the rest of the way. Including Denver, Kansas City's remaining opponents are a combined 38-17 (.691), with road games upcoming against the Dallas Cowboys (7-4) and New York Giants (7-4) before the Chiefs return home for the Chargers (7-4) and Cincinnati Bengals (8-3).

First, the Chiefs face a Broncos team which ranks second in the NFL in rushing with 165.6 yards per game. Kansas City ranks fourth in that category (138.1 ypg) despite playing the last four games without four-time 1,000-yard rusher Priest Holmes.

Holmes was lost to head and neck injuries in Week 8, forcing the Chiefs to plug third-year player Larry Johnson into the starting backfield. The move has worked wonders - Johnson has rushed for 569 yards and five touchdowns the last four weeks, including a franchise-record 211 yards two weeks ago against the Houston Texans.

In a 26-16 win last Sunday over the New England Patriots, Johnson ran 31 times for 119 yards and Greg Wesley had three interceptions to secure the Chiefs' second straight victory. Trent Green threw for 323 yards and one touchdown for Kansas City, which has yet to win three in a row this season.

Vermeil continues to hold praise for Johnson, who has 968 rushing yards after entering 2005 with 666 in his career.

"He has a passion to play the game," Vermeil said. "He didn't want to come out. He thinks Priest is still sitting on the bench. He's a tough, tough guy. He's been around football all of his life, so he understands all the concepts."

Kansas City's ground game has dominated the last six home games against Denver. In going 5-1 during that span, the Chiefs have rushed for 174.3 yards per game, an average of 60.8 more than the Broncos.

However, Denver owns the league's top run defense (79.1 ypg) this season and has won five of the last seven meetings overall, rushing for 189.4 yards per game and 16 touchdowns.

The Broncos enter with four straight wins and a 9-1 mark since a season-opening loss to the Miami Dolphins. They would like to avoid a familiar scenario against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, as Kansas City has halted four Broncos three-game-plus winning streaks there since 1996, the most recent a four-game run that ended with a 24-23 loss on Oct. 5, 2003.

Jake Plummer had arguably his best game at Arrowhead that day, throwing for 220 yards and one touchdown, but the Broncos quarterback has yet to win in four career games there.

In venues where he's played a minimum of four games, his 56.8 passer rating at Arrowhead betters only Texas Stadium (54.6 rating in six games) and FedEx Field (47.1 rating in five games).

In a 24-21 overtime win on Thanksgiving over the Cowboys, Plummer completed 15 of 24 passes for 162 yards and one touchdown. His streak of pass attempts without an interception ended at 229 when he was picked off by Terence Newman in the second quarter.

"I was going to bench him after that interception but he said he'd never throw another one," joked Broncos coach Mike Shanahan.

Filling in for an injured Tatum Bell, Ron Dayne ran 55 yards on the second play of overtime and Jason Elam followed with a 24-yard field goal to move the Broncos to 9-2 for the third time in Shanahan's 11 seasons.

Dayne finished with 98 rushing yards, his most since Sept. 30, 2001.

"Being able to help the team win is all I can ask for," Dayne said. "I haven't been upset about not playing. I just wanted to show the stuff I have. It was a lot of fun."

Bell returned to practice earlier in the week and may play against Kansas City. If he's unable to go, Dayne and Mike Anderson will continue to carry the load.

Anderson has 502 rushing yards and four touchdowns in eight career games against the Chiefs.

Kansas City holds a 50-40 advantage in the all-time series. Seven of the last 11 meetings at Arrowhead have been decided by three points or less.

STANDINGS: Broncos - 1st place, AFC West. Chiefs - 2nd place (tied), AFC West.

BRONCOS LEADERS: Offense - Plummer, 2,236 passing yards and 14 passing TDs; Anderson, 813 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs; Rod Smith, 57 receptions, 723 receiving yards and 5 receiving TDs. Defense - Trevor Pryce, 3 sacks; Champ Bailey, 6 INTs.

CHIEFS LEADERS: Offense - Green, 2,694 passing yards and 11 passing TDs; Johnson, 968 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs; Tony Gonzalez, 58 receptions; Eddie Kennison, 711 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs. Defense - Jared Allen, 8 sacks; Wesley, 6 INTs.

BRONCOS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 165.6 yards per game (2nd in NFL); Passing Offense - 195.1 ypg (21st); Total Offense - 360.7 ypg (7th). Rushing Defense - 79.1 ypg (1st); Passing Defense - 239.6 ypg (28th); Total Defense - 318.7 ypg (17th).

CHIEFS TEAM RANK: Rushing Offense - 138.1 yards per game (4th); Passing Offense - 229.0 ypg (13th); Total Offense - 367.1 ypg (5th). Rushing Defense - 88.2 ypg (5th); Passing Defense - 240.5 ypg (29th); Total Defense - 328.7 ypg (22nd).

LAST MEETING: Sept. 26; Broncos, 30-10. At Denver, Anderson had 98 of the Broncos' 221 rushing yards and Smith totaled 80 yards on seven catches with a touchdown to become the first undrafted player in NFL history to reach 10,000 receiving yards.

STREAKS AND NOTES: Broncos - Smith has 111 catches for 1,655 yards in 19 career games against the Chiefs. ... QB Plummer has thrown 1.3 INTs per 100 passes this season, best in the NFL. ... Denver has allowed 20-plus points in six straight games at Kansas City. Chiefs - Green is 2-5 in his last seven games against the Broncos despite throwing nine TD passes and two INTs in that span. ... DE Allen has recorded six of his eight sacks at home, including three against the Washington Redskins on Oct. 16. ... WR Kennison, who played for the Broncos for part of the 2001 season, has three consecutive 100-yard receiving games against his former team.

ROAD/HOME RECORDS: Broncos - 3-2 on the road; Chiefs - 4-1 at home.

INJURIES: Broncos - DOUBTFUL: T Cornell Green (shoulder). QUESTIONABLE: LB Keith Burns (knee). PROBABLE: CB Bailey (hamstring); RB Bell (chest). Chiefs - OUT: S Jerome Woods (hamstring). QUESTIONABLE: RB Ronnie Cruz (knee); DE Carlos Hall (hamstring); S Sammy Knight (ankle); T Jeremy Parquet (knee); DT Ryan Sims (foot); C Casey Wiegmann (ankle). PROBABLE: DT John Browning (knee); LB Boomer Grigsby (abdomen).

The Associated Press News Service

Copyright 2004-2005, The Associated Press, All Rights Reserved

12-03-2005, 11:33 AM
I agree, but it's 51% - not 61%.

12-03-2005, 11:37 AM
I agree, but it's 51% - not 61%.
The 61% comes from the stat that says KC is winiing 61% of simulations. Kinda misleading, but...

12-03-2005, 11:38 AM
The 61% comes from the stat that says KC is winiing 61% of simulations. Kinda misleading, but...

I think it's just hard to see. Looks like a blurry 5 to me, but your call. No big deal either way.

12-03-2005, 11:41 AM
changed it to accomodate both

12-03-2005, 11:45 AM
Well, now that we got that out of the way, I agree. I think Denver should be a little concerned coming here. Our team's got a lot of momentum going for us, and I have a feeling that the Arrowhead crowd will rock the stadium to its foundations. So, I think the game is in our favor.

Let's just hope we can pull it out!

12-03-2005, 12:33 PM
so denver forces 2 turnovers and we still win?

12-03-2005, 12:47 PM
Of course the CBS simulation had the Patriots winning 51%-48% last week...

12-03-2005, 01:32 PM
I haven't lost to a simulator yet... but good luck with that.



12-03-2005, 01:46 PM
a key stat from the article: Plummer has a 56.8 rating at Arrowhead.

12-03-2005, 04:05 PM
key stat from lj "Vermeil continues to hold praise for Johnson, who has 968 rushing yards after entering 2005 with 666 in his career."
the mark of the BEAST

Tactical Funky
12-03-2005, 04:18 PM
Yeah, I just hope Plummer continues to suck at Arrowhead. I want another left-handed interception near the goal line! ROFL

12-03-2005, 05:02 PM
key stat from lj "Vermeil continues to hold praise for Johnson, who has 968 rushing yards after entering 2005 with 666 in his career."
the mark of the BEAST

Torches blazed and sacred chants were praised.
As they start to cry, hands held to the sky.
In the night, the fires burning bright,
The ritual has begun. Satan's work is done!
666, the number of the beast!
Sacrifice is going on tonight!

12-03-2005, 05:49 PM
I think this game will show how far we still have to go before we are a legit playoff/superbowl contender. I hate the donks but I think Indy is the only team better than them right now. If we win I will be pleasantly surprised but if we lose it will be what I was expecting. We have won a couple of games and now the homer-vision is on full force for some...we will see what we REALLy have come tommorow at 3pm. Go Chiefs!

Cave Johnson
12-03-2005, 05:56 PM
so denver forces 2 turnovers and we still win?

Could be wrong, but I think "in most of their wins" refers to the simulations where Denver wins, not KC.