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phxchief
12-05-2005, 10:40 AM
KC - @ DAL lose, @ NYG lose, vs SD win, vs CIN win. 10-6 / 9-3 in AFC

SD - vs MIA win, @ IND lose, @ KC lose, vs DEN win. 10-6 / 8-4 in AFC

PIT - vs CHI lose, @ MIN win, @ CLE win, vs DET win. 10-6 / 8-5 in AFC


Thoughts? Disagree majorly?

To me, that's giving Pittsburgh some benefit of the doubt. They could well lose two games.

BigLefty05
12-05-2005, 10:44 AM
We are gonna win one of those raod games..

chiefsfaninNC
12-05-2005, 10:49 AM
Possible yes. I am not sure if it is probable though. Chicago has no offense. With our remaining schedule we need Pitt to lose one more. Our best hope could be Minn.

mike_b_284
12-05-2005, 10:52 AM
We are gonna win one of those raod games..

I concur

cmh6476
12-05-2005, 10:54 AM
I think in determining a 3-way tiebreaker, you first eliminate all teams except the top remaining team from each division.

So first you would do a head-to-head with KC and SD, and then whichever team remains would go to a head-to-head tiebreaker with pitt.


I have an elaborate playoff picture thread I started at fft:

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=185337


Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

at least that's what I'm taking from No. 1 in this scenario...

chop
12-05-2005, 10:55 AM
I think the Chiefs will beat both the Cowboys and Giants. If they split the the other two then they would be 11-5 and I think they make the playoffs.

RINGLEADER
12-05-2005, 10:56 AM
I agree with all of your predictions (Pittsburgh may end up 9-7 though) except us losing both of the next two games. I think we take one of them and I think the one we have the best shot at is next week at Dallas because a) Bledsoe is a frickin' statue, b) their running game isn't that good, c) although they play tough they're not an overpowering team and their one strength - their defense - can be negated if Larry Johnson can keep it going.

KChiefs1
12-05-2005, 10:57 AM
KC - @ DAL win, @ NYG lose, vs SD win, vs CIN win. 11-5 / 9-3 in AFC

SD - vs MIA win, @ IND lose, @ KC lose, vs DEN win. 10-6 / 8-4 in AFC

PIT - vs CHI win, @ MIN lose, @ CLE win, vs DET win. 10-6 / 8-5 in AFC



It will ultimately come down to the Chiefs vs Chargers game to decide which AFC West team goes as a wildcard because Jacksonville will go the other wildcard.

cmh6476
12-05-2005, 10:58 AM
so that tiebreaker would come down to common games played between KC and SD, and then it would go to a winner of those two and Pitt.

MichaelH
12-05-2005, 10:59 AM
I say we win the next 4 in a row and let the losers fight over the scraps. ;)

cmh6476
12-05-2005, 11:02 AM
so that tiebreaker would come down to common games played between KC and SD, and then it would go to a winner of those two and Pitt.


what games are different with the 2 clubs?

We played Houston and Cincinnati, and they played (or will play) indy and Pittsburgh.

You have us 2-0 in those games, and SD 0-2. That means in common games KC would be 8-6, while SD would be 10-4. Tiebreaker goes to SD.

Then Pitt has beaten SD, so Pitt has the tiebreaker over them and Pitt would get the final wildcard in that scenario.

HTH

morphius
12-05-2005, 11:04 AM
so that tiebreaker would come down to common games played between KC and SD, and then it would go to a winner of those two and Pitt.
Well, it could very well be confrence games between SD and KC, and the winnder going into the tie breaker with Pit.

Though I don't see Pit losing too many more games with that Schedule, I mean they barely lost yesterday and made a lot of mistakes.

JimNasium
12-05-2005, 11:04 AM
I'm not convinced that we can beat San Diego. Marty has our number.

MOhillbilly
12-05-2005, 11:05 AM
IMO from what i seen yesterday - when healthy - KC can win all of those games.

cmh6476
12-05-2005, 11:07 AM
I say we win the next 4 in a row and let the losers fight over the scraps. ;)


exaclty, we just have to keep winning and not worry about what everyone else is doing.

jidar
12-05-2005, 11:09 AM
The Cowboys look like a good matchup for us, their O isn't that great, they mostly rely on a decent run D with good pass D. I don't think anyone can stop our run and our D is good enough to stop most Offenses.
On paper that matchup looks like we should take it.. the problem is this is exactly what I thought about the Buffalo game. The Cowboys have the same strengths and weaknesses as Buffalo. I hope we show up to play this time.

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 11:10 AM
Though I don't see Pit losing too many more games with that Schedule, I mean they barely lost yesterday and made a lot of mistakes.

Except that Chicago and Minny are the two hottest teams in the NFL and Roethlisberger is banged up.

phxchief
12-05-2005, 11:13 AM
JimN - curious as to what kind of game you think SD@KC would be?

We lost in a pretty close game in their house when we were extremely banged up, along with the fact the defese was still coming together. I believe it's much further along now.

And just for the record, the initial post wasn't my predictions. I just wanted to put out a hypothetical that is actually quite pessimistic for KC (losing 2 games), and even then, it's still looking good for us.

Pittsburgh - 4-0? Maybe. But I don't see that. They just don't look that great to me.

As I illustrated, if Pittsburgh loses just one, the Chiefs can afford to lose two and make the playoffs above them depending on AFC wins (I don't see us losing to both SD and Cincy, our AFC games).

MOhillbilly
12-05-2005, 11:16 AM
The Cowboys look like a good matchup for us, .

The Dallas run game is pathetic and having watched Buffalo for 3 years - Bledsoe when pressured is like watching a baby w/ a diaper full of shit trying to escape its own skin.

JimNasium
12-05-2005, 11:17 AM
JimN - curious as to what kind of game you think SD@KC would be?

We lost in a pretty close game in their house when we were extremely banged up, along with the fact the defese was still coming together. I believe it's much further along now.

And just for the record, the initial post wasn't my predictions. I just wanted to put out a hypothetical that is actually quite pessimistic for KC (losing 2 games), and even then, it's still looking good for us.

Pittsburgh - 4-0? Maybe. But I don't see that. They just don't look that great to me.

As I illustrated, if Pittsburgh loses just one, the Chiefs can afford to lose two and make the playoffs above them depending on AFC wins (I don't see us losing to both SD and Cincy, our AFC games).

I can't formulate any logic that would make sense of why I feel this way about Sandy Eggo. I just don't feel we match up well against Gates, LdT and Brees. Add to this Marty and his ability to prepare a team for a regular season game and I end up not feeling optimistic. Trust me, I hope I'm wrong.

djwells
12-05-2005, 11:25 AM
I'm thinking the Jaguars fall back to the rest of the pack this next weekend against Indy. They will then be 9-4 with the Chiefs (after beating the CBoys) and San Diego. That would be the Jag's third AFC loss (2-Indy, 1-Denv). Let's win out and place the burden for playoff entry on the other's need of help. We win out, were in; no questions asked. It's much better to win and get in than to back in.

chiefqueen
12-05-2005, 12:45 PM
KC - @ DAL lose, @ NYG lose, vs SD win, vs CIN win. 10-6 / 9-3 in AFC

SD - vs MIA win, @ IND lose, @ KC lose, vs DEN win. 10-6 / 8-4 in AFC

PIT - vs CHI lose, @ MIN win, @ CLE win, vs DET win. 10-6 / 8-5 in AFC


Thoughts? Disagree majorly?

To me, that's giving Pittsburgh some benefit of the doubt. They could well lose two games.

For Pitt, switch CHI & MIN results around, the Bears' D is not going to bail them out every week & the way Minn is playing I don't the Pitt will beat them in the dome.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 12:52 PM
As I illustrated, if Pittsburgh loses just one, the Chiefs can afford to lose two and make the playoffs above them depending on AFC wins (I don't see us losing to both SD and Cincy, our AFC games).

You need to look at cmh6476's analysis in this thread. You have to break ties in the division before breaking ties in the conference. SD would beat us out in your senario. SD is going to be a big pain in the rear the next few weeks.

chiefqueen
12-05-2005, 12:52 PM
I can't formulate any logic that would make sense of why I feel this way about Sandy Eggo. I just don't feel we match up well against Gates, LdT and Brees. Add to this Marty and his ability to prepare a team for a regular season game and I end up not feeling optimistic. Trust me, I hope I'm wrong.

Don't forget the Chiefs will have a full week to prepare b/c we play on Sat. the week b/f and SD will have a short week.

The other may sound corny to some but remember the game w/b played on Christmas Eve and while the Chiefs players will get to be with their families that evening SD players will be flying back to SD. I believe this will result in an inordinate amount of home teams winning that day, including Seattle beating Indy.

Dunit35
12-05-2005, 12:56 PM
exaclty, we just have to keep winning and not worry about what everyone else is doing.


True that, if we have to pray for other teams to lose, we will suck in the playoffs anyways. Forget that, we win out go 12-4 and the rest will take care of its self.

plbrdude
12-05-2005, 01:10 PM
personally i see denver sliding off the mountain and the cinci game determining whether or not we win the the west outright and getting the other 1st round bye. but i'm crazy like that.

ARROW2
12-05-2005, 02:28 PM
personally i see denver sliding off the mountain and the cinci game determining whether or not we win the the west outright and getting the other 1st round bye. but i'm crazy like that.





I see we think alike!!!!!!!!!!!!! I still want a bye.....I really believe the two best teams in football are Indy and us..........

morphius
12-05-2005, 02:43 PM
Except that Chicago and Minny are the two hottest teams in the NFL and Roethlisberger is banged up.
Two of the hottest teams in a super weak division in a pretty weak confrence maybe, but hottest teams in the NFL is stretching it :D

TEX
12-05-2005, 02:46 PM
Don't count on Indy to beat the Bolts if they win in Jville this week. They'll have home field throughout and while making history is nice, I doubt Manning and company will contiunue to play the whole game for the duration of the season. Especially against a team that they might see in the playoffs. Just my take.