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View Full Version : Chiefs need to run the table and get the #2 seed


FringeNC
12-05-2005, 10:52 AM
Yesterday, we showed we can beat one of the best teams in the league at home. Can we beat a top team on the road? (Dallas and NY Giants aren't top teams)

If we run the table, and are 12-4, chances our we will get the #2 seed and a first-round bye.

htismaqe
12-05-2005, 10:56 AM
I like our chances against Dallas.

I see us finishing 11-5 with our loss coming in New York.

Chromatic
12-05-2005, 10:56 AM
Take it one game at a time, dude.

Chances are very aganst us running the table.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 10:58 AM
nfl-forecast.com says that if we run the table we have a 41% chance of getting the bye. Denver still would be favored to win the division. Our odds will improve slightly after I update the power ratings.

KChiefs1
12-05-2005, 11:01 AM
It's possible that the Chiefs run the table, but I agree with htismaqe that the Giants will beat the Chiefs. If the Chiefs do run the table & Denver loses to SD, then both will be 12-4....not sure how the tiebreakers would work with that one.

FringeNC
12-05-2005, 11:01 AM
nfl-forecast.com says that if we run the table we have a 41% chance of getting the bye. Denver still would be favored to win the division. Our odds will improve slightly after I update the power ratings.

What happens if both Denver and us finish 12-4? Obviously, Denver has to lose to SD or it doesn't matter (unless they lose TWO other games, which is not going to happen).

41% seems low unless Denver does indeed win the tie at 12-4.

htismaqe
12-05-2005, 11:04 AM
I think it's probably best for us if Denver beats SD. We have a better chance of beating SD for the wildcard than beating Denver for the division.

I'd like to see what the simulator says about that.

recxjake
12-05-2005, 11:05 AM
I cold see Denver loosing to Buffalo and SD, but that is very unlikely.... We just need to hope that Jax, Pitt and SD loose as much as possible!

Mile High Mania
12-05-2005, 11:07 AM
The Giants and Dallas are playing great defensively right now... winning those two back to back road games is going to be tough.

If KC can do it, then they're for real... I'm not saying they are frauds now by any means.

FringeNC
12-05-2005, 11:09 AM
Well, if the 41% value is correct, we DO lose the tie-breaker....even assuming Denver has won all of its games going into San Diego (which is certainly not p=1.00), Denver is going to be an underdog at SD, which gives us a better than 50/50 chance (again, assuming we win out)..

...so what the 41% chance tell us is that we must lose the tie-breaker at 12-4.

ROYC75
12-05-2005, 11:09 AM
Jax. got off the hook yesterday......

SD will lose to Indy and to us ......

We do need to win out, but let's just do 1 game at a time.

recxjake
12-05-2005, 11:10 AM
Dallas has a great Defense but I have no doubt that our D can stop them......We will win this game, can't look past that

cmh6476
12-05-2005, 11:13 AM
go bills and dolphins

phxchief
12-05-2005, 11:16 AM
I'm actually not sure that NY isn't a "for real" team. They should've beat the Seahawks AT Seattle and, really, they barely lost AT Dallas.

They had a bad game in San Diego. Most teams have one bad game.

Thig Lyfe
12-05-2005, 11:18 AM
Take it one game at a time, dude.

Chances are very aganst us running the table.

Dallas has no O.

NY has no D.

SD is at home in December.

Cincy might rest its stars... at home... in December.

I actually feel pretty good about this stretch. It looks a lot better now that the tackles are back and we have much more faith in the team as a whole after these last two games.

phxchief
12-05-2005, 11:19 AM
The one thing I think of with Dallas it that they've played everyone tough.

I don't see us going into the 4th quarter with a big lead, if at all.

I hope in that game we can do what we've done in a few games this year, like Oakland with the last second stop/last second TD, or with Denver with the clutch 4th defense.

Chiefs Pantalones
12-05-2005, 11:29 AM
The Jags don't deserve that 9-3 record. They barely beat the crappy teams of the league.

htismaqe
12-05-2005, 11:38 AM
Dallas has no O.

NY has no D.

SD is at home in December.

Cincy might rest its stars... at home... in December.

I actually feel pretty good about this stretch. It looks a lot better now that the tackles are back and we have much more faith in the team as a whole after these last two games.

Ny allows less yards per rush than all but two teams in the league, I believe.

If they take away the run and force us to throw the ball, you'll be wishing they had no D.

FringeNC
12-05-2005, 11:45 AM
Ny allows less yards per rush than all but two teams in the league, I believe.

If they take away the run and force us to throw the ball, you'll be wishing they had no D.

The Giants have given up 380 yards or more 6 times, and over 475 yards twice. The Giants can stop bad offenses, but get lit-up against good offenses.

And the two times they gave up 475 yards were to the Coryell teams, the Rams and SD.

KChiefs1
12-05-2005, 11:47 AM
I'm actually not sure that NY isn't a "for real" team. They should've beat the Seahawks AT Seattle and, really, they barely lost AT Dallas.

They had a bad game in San Diego. Most teams have one bad game.

They beat the Chargers in San Diego. The Giants lost the Seattle game & the Dallas game on FG's too.

The Giants in Jersey are going to be tough.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 12:16 PM
Well, if the 41% value is correct, we DO lose the tie-breaker....even assuming Denver has won all of its games going into San Diego (which is certainly not p=1.00), Denver is going to be an underdog at SD, which gives us a better than 50/50 chance (again, assuming we win out)..

...so what the 41% chance tell us is that we must lose the tie-breaker at 12-4.

If both Denver and Kansas City finish 12-4, with Denver losing to SD or Oakland, then the tiebreakers go all the way down to strength of victory, which is the WLT percentage of the teams you have beaten. That competition will be very close and depends on how Cincinnati, Houston, Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Jacksonville finish the season. Right now, my software says that Dever has a 55-45 edge in the strength of schedule tiebreaker.

If Denver's 4th loss came against Buffalo or Baltimore, then they would win the Division record tiebreaker.

Thig Lyfe
12-05-2005, 12:18 PM
The Giants have given up 380 yards or more 6 times, and over 475 yards twice. The Giants can stop bad offenses, but get lit-up against good offenses.

And the two times they gave up 475 yards were to the Coryell teams, the Rams and SD.

Exactly. And keep in mind, LJ just tore up the #1 rush D in the league.

Rain Man
12-05-2005, 12:22 PM
Right now, my main goal is to see Bledsoe get shell-shocked like he was the last time we played Buffalo when he was the QB there.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 12:25 PM
I think it's probably best for us if Denver beats SD. We have a better chance of beating SD for the wildcard than beating Denver for the division.

I'd like to see what the simulator says about that.

Yep, you're right. If Denver beats SD our playoff chances are 57%. If SD beats Denver our chances are 35%.

SuperBowl chances are better with a Denver loss though. A Denver loss opens the opportunity for a first round bye, which makes a huge impact on SB odds. Denver wins SB victory = 0.44%; SD wins SB victory = 1.64%, almost 4x better.

Other than the SD/Denver game, all other outcomes are simulated (no assuming KC wins this game or that game).

siberian khatru
12-05-2005, 12:28 PM
I could see Denver losing to SD if they tank the game because they've got nothing to play for. We need to keep winning to keep the pressure on Denver.

phxchief
12-05-2005, 12:29 PM
They beat the Chargers in San Diego. The Giants lost the Seattle game & the Dallas game on FG's too.

The Giants in Jersey are going to be tough.

You must be confused.

They lost to San Diego in San Diego, and yes they lost on FGs to the other teams as I said.

That was my entire point - they're pretty good. Put them at home and it's a tough task to get a W.

chiefqueen
12-05-2005, 12:30 PM
Cincy might rest its stars... at home... in December.



I realize you may still be hung over when the game's played but the Cincy game will be played in January.

htismaqe
12-05-2005, 12:32 PM
Exactly. And keep in mind, LJ just tore up the #1 rush D in the league.

Denver was NOT the #1 rush D in the league.

They were EIGHTEENTH.

Yards per attempt is the only stat that matters.

Yes, they were 2nd in the league in total yards given up. They were FIRST in attempts, meaning the reason that teams failed to run on them was NOT that Denver was stopping them but rather that teams had to give up on the run because Denver's offense was jumping out to a big lead.

bringbackmarty
12-05-2005, 01:15 PM
I don't get this we can't beat the gianrs at home shit.
**** the giants. 45-13 chiefs.

**** 'em

Baconeater
12-05-2005, 02:05 PM
Neither the Giants nor Dallas really scare me, but I'm sure we'll dump one of the two. Those last two home games are huge, thank God we have :louder: on our side.

ct
12-05-2005, 02:34 PM
Yep, you're right. If Denver beats SD our playoff chances are 57%. If SD beats Denver our chances are 35%.

SuperBowl chances are better with a Denver loss though. A Denver loss opens the opportunity for a first round bye, which makes a huge impact on SB odds. Denver wins SB victory = 0.44%; SD wins SB victory = 1.64%, almost 4x better.

Other than the SD/Denver game, all other outcomes are simulated (no assuming KC wins this game or that game).

San Diego beating Denver opens the door for KC to take the division, if we win out (Keep in mind that the Bolts still have to play Indy). But as you said, it'll come down to the strength of victory tiebreaker, which depends on too many factors for me to speculate, so I'll trust your program. Denver has a bit edge right now, but if we win out vs. our remaining opponents, KC's SoV will go up significantly, whereas Denver still with Buffalo, Baltimore and Oakland will lower theirs.

Denver beating San Diego, will give us a wild card most likely, if we win out.

It keeps coming down to us winning out, and that really looks like a tough go. One game at a time, let's see what happens...

cdcox
12-05-2005, 02:38 PM
San Diego beating Denver opens the door for KC to take the division, if we win out (Keep in mind that the Bolts still have to play Indy). But as you said, it'll come down to the strength of victory tiebreaker, which depends on too many factors for me to speculate, so I'll trust your program. Denver has a bit edge right now, but if we win out vs. our remaining opponents, KC's SoV will go up significantly, whereas Denver still with Buffalo, Baltimore and Oakland will lower theirs.

Denver beating San Diego, will give us a wild card most likely, if we win out.

It keeps coming down to us winning out, and that really looks like a tough go. One game at a time, let's see what happens...

Winning out will do it. But 11-5 will beat Pittsburgh. The key is we need to beat SD and they need to get another loss against Indy or Denver.

htismaqe
12-05-2005, 02:49 PM
I don't get this we can't beat the gianrs at home shit.
**** the giants. 45-13 chiefs.

**** 'em

We don't play the Giants at home, dude.


12/11/05 at Dallas Cowboys 3:15 PM CBS+
12/17/05 at New York Giants 4:00 PM CBS+
12/24/05 San Diego Chargers 12:00 PM CBS
01/01/06 Cincinnati Bengals 12:00 PM CBS

KCTitus
12-05-2005, 02:50 PM
That Cincy game is going to be TOUGH. I think KC could win the next 3 if they play like they did on Sunday, but that Cincy game...ugh. They're going to be tough.

FringeNC
12-05-2005, 02:52 PM
That Cincy game is going to be TOUGH. I think KC could win the next 3 if they play like they did on Sunday, but that Cincy game...ugh. They're going to be tough.


I think San Diego is better than Cinci. Cinci gave up almost 500 yards yesterday.

KCTitus
12-05-2005, 02:56 PM
I think San Diego is better than Cinci. Cinci gave up almost 500 yards yesterday.

They're both going to be tough, no question, but I think the fact that SD is a division team makes them a bit more 'known' to KC.

Last time KC played Cincy, they got pretty much torched ending their undefeated run.

Frosty
12-05-2005, 02:56 PM
Bengals = 2003 Chiefs.

High power offense with a crappy defense that lives off of turnovers.

Calcountry
12-05-2005, 03:03 PM
It's possible that the Chiefs run the table, but I agree with htismaqe that the Giants will beat the Chiefs. If the Chiefs do run the table & Denver loses to SD, then both will be 12-4....not sure how the tiebreakers would work with that one.Not if their field goal kicker doesn't figure it out soon, it might just be the edge we need in that game.

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 03:03 PM
I realize you may still be hung over when the game's played but the Cincy game will be played in January.

Same advantage still applies. 19-2 in December/January since '95.

Pasta Giant Meatball
12-05-2005, 03:06 PM
arc i thought the same thing when watching the bengals played yesterday. they do look ALOT like the '03 chiefs. that D got shredded, but a few bonehead plays by pitt baled them out.

Calcountry
12-05-2005, 03:08 PM
Right now, my main goal is to see Bledsoe get shell-shocked like he was the last time we played Buffalo when he was the QB there.He can't move like McNabb and Plumber, so he should be an easy target for Jerod.