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HolyHandgernade
12-05-2005, 11:42 AM
Let's take an extreme position. Say the Chiefs win out, Chargers win out save the Chiefs game, the Broncos win out save the Charger game, and the Bengals win out save the Chiefs game, and the Jaguars win out save the Indy game. All end with 12-4 records, plus all three West teams have identical division records.

Is it impossible to tell who's in, who's out and what the seeding would be without knowing things like point totals and such at the end of the season?

-HH

Brock
12-05-2005, 11:45 AM
If the Chargers win out except at Arrowhead, they won't be 12-4.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 11:45 AM
One problem, Chargers losing to KC would drop them to 11-5

Dunit35
12-05-2005, 11:49 AM
1. INDY 16-0
2. DEN 12-4
3. KC 12-4
4. CINCY 12-4
5. JAX 12-4
6. SD 10-6


Not completely sure where Jax and Cincy would stand or Denver for that matter.

ptlyon
12-05-2005, 11:51 AM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.

Dunit35
12-05-2005, 11:52 AM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.


Not so sure about that. But hopefully we can pull a W out of that one.

Brock
12-05-2005, 11:52 AM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.

SD isn't better than Denver. In fact, I think Denver will beat them quite convincingly.

jcl-kcfan2
12-05-2005, 11:53 AM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.


Well, maybe you are, NTTAWWT...


:)

chiefsfaninNC
12-05-2005, 11:54 AM
The next several weeks will be interesting to say the least.

carlos3652
12-05-2005, 11:54 AM
it would be crazy:

Colts 16-0 (division winner, HF, bye)
Broncos 12-4 (division winner)
Cincy 12-4 (division winner)
Jags 12-4 (wildcard)
Chiefs 12-4 (wildcard)
New England 11-5 (division winner)
Pittsburg 11-5 (would be out)
San Diego 11-5 (would be out)

This scenario could happen and it would be crazy that an 11-5 team be left out of the playoffs...

Bob Dole
12-05-2005, 11:55 AM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.

Ah...the good old reverse mojo tactic.

sedated
12-05-2005, 11:56 AM
IND, CIN, DEN, NE all win division.

KC and JAX are wildcards at 12-4

SD and PIT are sitting at home.

mlyonsd
12-05-2005, 11:56 AM
We're going to be 10-6.

I know because I predicted it before the start of the season.

Radar Chief
12-05-2005, 11:56 AM
If the Chargers win out except at Arrowhead, they won't be 12-4.
One problem, Chargers losing to KC would drop them to 11-5

Glad that, for once, I actually read some of the posts before reply’n.

sedated
12-05-2005, 11:57 AM
but i think JAX will struggle without Leftwich, and will drop a game they should win.

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 12:00 PM
Glad that, for once, I actually read some of the posts before reply’n.

They both posted at 12:45, FYI.

Radar Chief
12-05-2005, 12:05 PM
They both posted at 12:45. No need to be a post Nazi.

:spock: Ok, but I’m apparently not be’n a “Post Nazi” over what you think I am.
That was a comment to the ridiculousness of group’n SD in at 12-4 since that’d be impossible if they loose to the Chiefs. I quoted both Brock and cdcox ‘cause they both beat me to that post. :thumb:

plbrdude
12-05-2005, 12:05 PM
it would be crazy:

Colts 16-0 (division winner, HF, bye)
Broncos 12-4 (division winner)
Cincy 12-4 (division winner)
Jags 12-4 (wildcard)
Chiefs 12-4 (wildcard)
New England 11-5 (division winner)
Pittsburg 11-5 (would be out)
San Diego 11-5 (would be out)

This scenario could happen and it would be crazy that an 11-5 team be left out of the playoffs...
simple solution: make all 10 win teams bowl eligible.add more bowls till 1/2 the league gets in. :)

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 12:06 PM
I'm sure this has been pointed out on another thread, but SD's schedule is actually tougher than ours going forward. I'd peg their odds at beating us and Indy on the road and Denver at home at nil.

Dunit35
12-05-2005, 12:07 PM
So division winners dont get wild cards spots? So the Patriots terrible record will put them ahead of KCs better record just because they are division winners?

carlos3652
12-05-2005, 12:07 PM
simple solution: make all 10 win teams bowl eligible.add more bowls till 1/2 the league gets in. :)

I think we should incorporate the BCS system into the nfl...

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 12:08 PM
I quoted both Brock and cdcox ‘cause they both beat me to that post. :thumb:

Happens to me all the time, too.

Chief Faithful
12-05-2005, 12:08 PM
In previous years a 10-6 record would be good enough to make the playoffs. It is being to look like it will take an 11-5 record in the AFC this year unless the team wins the division (i.e. New England).

Bob Dole
12-05-2005, 12:09 PM
Bob Dole isn't even going to worry about playoff scenarios until we prove we can beat mediocre NFC teams on the road.

Radar Chief
12-05-2005, 12:10 PM
So division winners dont get wild cards spots? So the Patriots terrible record will put them ahead of KCs better record just because they are division winners?

1. No.
2. Yes.

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 12:10 PM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.

Not likely. We lost last year at home by only 3, despite being 3-8 and mired in a 4 game losing streak.

Sure-Oz
12-05-2005, 12:10 PM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.
yeah right in our house no! Denver is better than SD!

Amnorix
12-05-2005, 12:14 PM
I'm sure this has been pointed out on another thread, but SD's schedule is actually tougher than ours going forward. I'd peg their odds at beating us and Indy on the road and Denver at home at nil.

Not much tougher, but tougher. Their remaining opponents have a combined WL of like 36-14 and yours are at like 34-16. Something like that.

ChiefsCountry
12-05-2005, 12:15 PM
So division winners dont get wild cards spots? So the Patriots terrible record will put them ahead of KCs better record just because they are division winners?

Yeah, it has always been that way.

Amnorix
12-05-2005, 12:18 PM
So division winners dont get wild cards spots? So the Patriots terrible record will put them ahead of KCs better record just because they are division winners?

Right. Worse, that's true even though KC beat NE.

The formula is:

1. The 4 division winners (they get the first four seeds based on THEIR respective W-Ls and then various tie-breakers).

AND THEN:

2. The top two teams in the conference who are not a division winners.

I fully expect to see something like this:

1. Indy (15-1 or whatever)
2. Cincy (12-4)
3. AFC West team (11-5)
4. Patriots (9-7 or, at best, 10-6)
5. Jags (12-4)
6. 'nother wildcard (12-4 or 11-5).

Under this scenario, the Jags (12-4) of Florida would go to New England in January to play the Patriots, even though they have 2-3 games in hand on them.

If KC ends up with the #5 seed, they too would be forced to come to New England, even though they (1) had a better record, (2) beat NE, and (3) played in a tougher division.

:shrug: dems da rules.

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 12:19 PM
Not much tougher, but tougher. Their remaining opponents have a combined WL of like 36-14 and yours are at like 34-16. Something like that.

Close. 34-14 for the Bolts, 32-16 for KC.

bringbackmarty
12-05-2005, 12:19 PM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.]
no we won't, I'm watching a football game where the chiefs are at home, and have won seventeen gamesin a row in december there. You can engage in anal intercourse if you wish. I'll be watching the game.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 12:19 PM
Not much tougher, but tougher. Their remaining opponents have a combined WL of like 36-14 and yours are at like 34-16. Something like that.

Also, Indy clinches HFA with a win next week so they won't have anything on the line (except the 19-0 thing) when they go against SD. Dingy says he is going to rest his starters once HFA is wrapped up.

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 12:24 PM
]
I'm watching a football game where the chiefs are at home, and have won seventeen gamesin a row in december there.

19-2 since '95 when you include January.

Also, Indy clinches HFA with a win next week so they won't have anything on the line (except the 19-0 thing) when they go against SD. Dingy says he is going to rest his starters once HFA is wrapped up.

He might rest Edge some in the SD game, but Rhodes could start for a number of teams. And they're not going to start resting players wholesale in Week 15. Way too much rust from that kind of layoff.

Dunit35
12-05-2005, 12:26 PM
1. No.
2. Yes.


That is freaking ridiculous. What a joke, something needs to be done about that.

Radar Chief
12-05-2005, 12:28 PM
That is freaking ridiculous. What a joke, something needs to be done about that.

ROFL That’s just the way it works. We knew the rules go’n in. ;)

chiefsfaninNC
12-05-2005, 12:32 PM
This year again shows that in the AFC at least 2 more teams should be brought into the playoffs. In the NFC of course you could make a case for dropping two spots.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 12:33 PM
He might rest Edge some in the SD game, but Rhodes could start for a number of teams. And they're not going to start resting players wholesale in Week 15. Way too much rust from that kind of layoff.

This is Dingy, son of Marty, we are talking about. These guys invent ways to lose in the playoffs. Dingy's latest invention appears to be the bye month.

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 12:34 PM
That is freaking ridiculous. What a joke, something needs to be done about that.

Seahawks were last year's Patriots. Get used to more of this with 4 division conferences.

phxchief
12-05-2005, 12:34 PM
Hate to burst anyone's bubble, but I think we're going to get an @$$ pounding by SD on X-mas eve.

That's absolutely ridiculous.

We lost to them by 8, on the road, with starters missing, early in the year when the defense was coming together and the offense had no rhythm.

If this is going to be a blowout, it's SD who will get handled.

Amnorix
12-05-2005, 12:36 PM
That is freaking ridiculous. What a joke, something needs to be done about that.


errr...no. What would the point be to having actual divisions if winning the division didn't mean anything? You could have a conference-wide round-robin, I suppose, but that'd be silly.

Luck of the draw regarding your division, and your conference. Take any of the top few teams in the AFC the last 4 or 5 years and put them in the NFC and they'd be cleaning up.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 12:36 PM
This year again shows that in the AFC at least 2 more teams should be brought into the playoffs. In the NFC of course you could make a case for dropping two spots.

I'm strongly against expanding the NFL playoffs. Look at all the exciting football we get to see at the end of the season, all because the number of playoff spots is limited. Keep the regular season meaningful. It's one of the advantages the NFL has over the other sports league.

Amnorix
12-05-2005, 12:38 PM
Seahawks were last year's Patriots. Get used to more of this with 4 division conferences.


Right. When it was 3 divisions, this stuff rarely happened. Now it will be somewhat more frequent.

But seriously, probably 12 of the 16 AFC teams would be very much in the hunt for at least a wild card if they were in the NFC. Especially if you gave them the gift of being in the NFC West, where teams all suck, 'cept the Seahawks.

Amnorix
12-05-2005, 12:41 PM
I'm strongly against expanding the NFL playoffs. Look at all the exciting football we get to see at the end of the season, all because the number of playoff spots is limited. Keep the regular season meaningful. It's one of the advantages the NFL has over the other sports league.

Agreed. Hockey and B-ball are a joke cuz everyone who doesn't totally suck makes the playoffs.

Cochise
12-05-2005, 12:41 PM
We don't need to expand the playoffs, but I don't think it would hurt if the NFL added a couple of games to the schedule. That would help prevent these situations where three teams have the same record and one of them gets in and the others don't, just because they happened to win against one more AFC team or something.

Also since we're splitting hairs... are you aware that isn't how you spell "grenade"? ;)

Alphaman
12-05-2005, 12:49 PM
Someone help me understand the tie breakers.

If we win out and SD beats Denver, then we would be 12-4 and Denver would be 12-4. We would have split the season and we'd both be 4-2 in the division. I think the next tie breaker is record against common opponents. There are 14 (AFC West, AFC East and NFC East). We'd be 10-4 (losses to Philly, Buffalo, Denver and SD). Denver would also be 10-4 (losses to Miami, NY Giants, KC and SD).

What's the next tie breaker that gives Denver the edge?

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 12:53 PM
Next two tiebreakers are best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference and strength of victory. So it would come down to margin of victory, which we would lose.

Alphaman
12-05-2005, 01:01 PM
Next two tiebreakers are best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference and strength of victory. So it would come down to margin of victory, which we would lose.


Yeah, I see that now. We need them to lose to @ Buffalo. They are unbeaten at home so I doubt they lose to Baltimore or Oakland.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 01:06 PM
Someone help me understand the tie breakers.

If we win out and SD beats Denver, then we would be 12-4 and Denver would be 12-4. We would have split the season and we'd both be 4-2 in the division. I think the next tie breaker is record against common opponents. There are 14 (AFC West, AFC East and NFC East). We'd be 10-4 (losses to Philly, Buffalo, Denver and SD). Denver would also be 10-4 (losses to Miami, NY Giants, KC and SD).

What's the next tie breaker that gives Denver the edge?

Next tiebreaker is conference record and we would both be tied there.

Then it would go to strength of victory. This is defined as the WLT percentate of the teams you have defeated. Mostly we would have beaten the same teams in your senario. The differences are:

We beat: Miami, Cincinnatti, New York Giants and Houston

Denver beat: Buffalo, Baltimore, Philli and Jacksonville

That will be very close and may not be decided till the last game of the season. Right now, my software give the edge to Denver 55 to 45.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 01:07 PM
Next two tiebreakers are best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference and strength of victory. So it would come down to margin of victory, which we would lose.

Strength of victory is not margin of victory. It is the WLT percentage of the teams you have defeated.

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 01:15 PM
Thanks for the clarification. I assumed they were one and the same.

mcan
12-05-2005, 01:19 PM
Pertinent NFL games from here on out...

New England ---
Dec 11 @Buffalo 1:00pm (NE wins)
Dec 17 Tampa Bay 1:30pm (NE wins)
Dec 26 @N.Y. Jets 9:00pm (NE wins)
Jan 1 Miami 1:00pm (NE wins)

New England finishes
11-5


Cincinatti ---
Dec 11 Cleveland 1:00pm (Cinci wins)
Dec 18 @Detroit 4:05pm (Cinci wins)
Dec 24 Buffalo 1:00pm (Cinci wins)
Jan 1 @Kansas City 1:00pm (KC wins)

Cinci finishes
13-3


Pittsburg ---
Dec 11 Chicago 1:00pm (Chicago wins)
Dec 18 @Minnesota 1:00pm (Pitt wins)
Dec 24 @Cleveland 1:00pm (Pitt wins)
Jan 1 Detroit 1:00pm (Pitt wins)

Pitt finishes
10-6


Indianapolis ---
Dec 11 @Jacksonville 1:00pm (Indi wins)
Dec 18 San Diego 1:00pm (Indi wins)
Dec 24 @Seattle 4:15pm (Indi wins)
Jan 1 Arizona 1:00pm (Indi wins)

Indi finishes
16-0


Jacksonville ---
Dec 11 Indianapolis 1:00pm (Indi wins)
Dec 18 San Francisco 1:00pm (Jacks win)
Dec 24 @Houston 1:00pm (Jacks win)
Jan 1 Tennessee 4:05pm (Tenn wins)

Jacks finish
11-5


Denver ---
Dec 11 Baltimore 4:15pm (Denver wins)
Dec 17 @Buffalo 8:30pm (Denver wins)
Dec 24 Oakland 4:15pm (Denver wins)
Dec 31 @San Diego 4:30pm (San Diego wins)

Denver finishes
12-4


San Diego ---
Dec 11 Miami 4:15pm (SD wins)
Dec 18 @Indianapolis 1:00pm (Indi wins)
Dec 24 @Kansas City 1:00pm (KC wins)
Dec 31 Denver 4:30pm (SD wins)

San Diego finishes
10-6


Kansas City ---
Dec 11 @Dallas 4:15pm (KC wins)
Dec 17 @N.Y. Giants 5:00pm (KC wins)
Dec 24 San Diego 1:00pm (KC wins)
Jan 1 Cincinnati 1:00pm (KC wins)

Kansas City finishes
12-4


Final standings
AFC EAST = New England (11-5)
AFC NORTH = Cincinatti (13-3)
AFC SOUTH = Indianapolis (16-0)
AFC WEST = TIE: Denver/KC (12-4)

Tiebreaker:
-Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). split
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. split with 2 division losses each
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. split (9-3)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. split (4-2)

Strength of victory.
This is where beating Cincinatti (who has the best w/l percentage of all the teams that either club will face) could put us over the top. But I'm assuming that previous posters are correct and Denver has it right now.

FINAL SEEDINGS
1. Indianapolis
2. Cincinatti
3. Denver
4. New England
W5. Kansas City
W6. Jacksonville

First playoff weekend:
Jacksonville @ Denver
Kansas City @ New England

If Jacksonville wins they go to Indi
If Denver wins they go to Cinci

CoMoChief
12-05-2005, 01:27 PM
If anyone goes 11-5 and misses the playoffs then the NFL needs to restructure the divisions, maybe by putting some AFC teams in the NFC. I cant remember why Seattle went to the NFC. Can anyone give me the info? Was is because of new teams coming in so they made an extra division and then just subtracted a team from another division?

Cave Johnson
12-05-2005, 01:31 PM
If anyone goes 11-5 and misses the playoffs then the NFL needs to restructure the divisions, maybe by putting some AFC teams in the NFC. I cant remember why Seattle went to the NFC. Can anyone give me the info? Was is because of new teams coming in so they made an extra division and then just subtracted a team from another division?

New Cleveland franchise in the AFC. Again, this is why the NFL works as well as it does. Every game means so much more.

cdcox
12-05-2005, 01:31 PM
If anyone goes 11-5 and misses the playoffs then the NFL needs to restructure the divisions, maybe by putting some AFC teams in the NFC. I cant remember why Seattle went to the NFC. Can anyone give me the info? Was is because of new teams coming in so they made an extra division and then just subtracted a team from another division?

Division powers are transient. You don't want to be in a situation where you are shuffling divisions every few years to keep things balanced. That's the purpose of the parity rules.

htismaqe
12-05-2005, 01:47 PM
If Cincinatti or Denver finishes 13-3, they might as well count on losing at home in the playoffs.

It happens in the AFC about 80% of the time.