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View Full Version : KC can still make the playoffs at 10-6. Here is a very likely scenario...


donkhater
12-05-2005, 08:18 PM
As of now I think Jacksonville is in. If KC goes 10-6 here is the circumstances for that to equal a playoff appearance, one I think is actually pretty likely to happen.

KC:

at Dallas L
at NYG L
SD W
Cin W

I think KC can beat any team at home, less confident on the road, despite the fact they are playing well. Should the above scenario play out, they will be 10-6 with a 9-3 conference record and a 4-2 division record.

SD:

Miami W
at Indy L
at KC L
Denver W

SD is a very unpredictable team right now. As well as they are playing, they struggled to beat the Jets and Washington on the road lately. Not a good precedent going into Indy or Arrowhead. Should the above scenario play out, SD finished 10-6 with a 8-4 conference record and a 4-2 division record.

Pitt:

Chicago W
at Minnesota L
Cleveland W
Detroit W

It doesn't matter who Pittsburgh drops one to as long as they lose one. They already have a 6-5 conference record so the best it could be is 7-5.

So there it is. Should KC, SD and Pitt all finish 10-6, KC wins the tie breaker with the better conference reocrd.

Obviously, for KC to win the tie breaker they CANNOT lose the two games at Arrowhead. Lose either of those two games especially SD, and I think KC won't get in. Even if they pull off the two road wins, if they lose to SD, they will likely lose out since SD could finish 11-5 and own the sweep over KC.

The SD and Cincy wins are a MUST

Spott
12-05-2005, 08:20 PM
These next two games are really only helpful for us to have any chance of winning the division. The last 2 games are absolute must win games just to get in, especially the SD game.

Sully
12-05-2005, 08:21 PM
Let's just win ut and not worry about all this nonsense.

Dunit35
12-05-2005, 08:22 PM
Let's just win ut and not worry about all this nonsense.


Losing, whats that?

tk13
12-05-2005, 08:25 PM
Actually I believe Pittsburgh would get in with that scenario. When there's a three way tie, and two teams are from the same division, you have to do the tiebreaker between the division teams first. And that would be San Diego. So we'd be eliminated, and Pitt has the tiebreaker over SD, so then Pittsburgh would get in in that scenario.

DanT
12-05-2005, 08:26 PM
Great post, donkhater!

Count Alex's Losses
12-05-2005, 08:26 PM
Pittsburgh won't beat Chicago.

carlos3652
12-05-2005, 08:32 PM
Actually I believe Pittsburgh would get in with that scenario. When there's a three way tie, and two teams are from the same division, you have to do the tiebreaker between the division teams first. And that would be San Diego. So we'd be eliminated, and Pitt has the tiebreaker over SD, so then Pittsburgh would get in in that scenario.

yea... thats what he did...

First
KC > SD - 9-3 vs 8-4

Then
KC > PIT - 9-3 vs 7-5

KC = 6th playoff spot @ Cincy/Denver

KCChiefsMan
12-05-2005, 08:38 PM
I think KC will beat at least one of the NFC East teams we play, we MUST MUST MUST win our next 2 home games, it's going to be tough....we'll just have to wait and see. We are playing great right now and we need to keep that coming, if we get enough pressure on Bledsoe and Manning I think we will have a damn good chance of winning both games, shutting down Tiki is going to be tough vs NYG but we have a good run D. I can't wait!

Rain Man
12-05-2005, 08:38 PM
Nice thread.

I believe.

siberian khatru
12-05-2005, 08:39 PM
Actually I believe Pittsburgh would get in with that scenario. When there's a three way tie, and two teams are from the same division, you have to do the tiebreaker between the division teams first. And that would be San Diego. So we'd be eliminated, and Pitt has the tiebreaker over SD, so then Pittsburgh would get in in that scenario.

How would SD eliminate us? Common opponents?

tk13
12-05-2005, 08:45 PM
yea... thats what he did...

First
KC > SD - 9-3 vs 8-4

Then
KC > PIT - 9-3 vs 7-5

KC = 6th playoff spot @ Cincy/Denver
Division tiebreaker is division record first, then common games, then conference record. I don't think we're going to beat them in common games.... because they've already lost to Pittsburgh, and they would lose to Indy, and those are the two opponents of theirs we didn't play. They'd be 10-4 and we'd be 8-6 in common games.

Count Alex's Losses
12-05-2005, 08:46 PM
Can someone breakdown the scenarios for winning the division if we tie with Denver?

Rausch
12-05-2005, 08:47 PM
Keep in mind that Cinci might have a bye and their Division locked up by week 16, giving that game absolutely no meaning in KC.

If that happens expect them to bench a few people, at least in the 2nd half, and give us a great chance to win that game.

And the Jagwads are not a lock for the playoffs. They're only one game up on us and still have to play the Colts (most likely a loss.)

tk13
12-05-2005, 08:49 PM
Can someone breakdown the scenarios for winning the division if we tie with Denver?
I'll look, but I believe it would come down to strength of victory at the moment...

siberian khatru
12-05-2005, 08:50 PM
Division tiebreaker is division record first, then common games, then conference record. I don't think we're going to beat them in common games.... because they've already lost to Pittsburgh, and they would lose to Indy, and those are the two opponents of theirs we didn't play. They'd be 10-4 and we'd be 8-6 in common games.

They beat the Bills. Ouch.

carlos3652
12-05-2005, 08:51 PM
Division tiebreaker is division record first, then common games, then conference record. I don't think we're going to beat them in common games.... because they've already lost to Pittsburgh, and they would lose to Indy, and those are the two opponents of theirs we didn't play. They'd be 10-4 and we'd be 8-6 in common games.

You are correct... we need to win one away game...

tk13
12-05-2005, 08:57 PM
Can someone breakdown the scenarios for winning the division if we tie with Denver?
Denver would have to lose to SD or Oakland. They're 3-1 in the division... we have two division losses.

If they won the next three then lost to SD the last week, and say we won out, we'd both be 12-4 overall, and 4-2 in the division. We'd both be 8-6 in common games. We'd both be 9-3 in the conference. It would come down to strength of victory... and right now Denver's is .523 and ours is .396, but we're about to play four winning teams and Denver is about to play three losing teams. That'll change. So it's up in the air. But Denver needs to lose another division game for that to even come into play.

donkhater
12-05-2005, 08:58 PM
Division tiebreaker is division record first, then common games, then conference record. I don't think we're going to beat them in common games.... because they've already lost to Pittsburgh, and they would lose to Indy, and those are the two opponents of theirs we didn't play. They'd be 10-4 and we'd be 8-6 in common games.
Under the scenario laid out above, SD and KC will have split their head-to-head matchup and have identical 4-2 division records having both lost at Denver. The next tie-breaker is conference record and KC would end up with the better conference record.

You are correct. THAT would eliminate SD and KC would win the tie-breaker with Pitt with the better conference record to get the 6th and final spot.

I'm with you guys. I'd rather KC just win out. But I just wanted to point out that even if they got one of these road games coming up, they absolutely positively must win both games at home to still get in. First for the head-to-head with SD and then over Cincy to keep the conference record strong.

The bottom line--

As long as Pitt loses in the coming week to either Chicago or at Minnesota (not unlikely, particulary considering Big Ben health) at SD drops the Indy game (also probable as long as Indy doesn't sit their starters), it really doesn't matter what KC does in the next two weeks. It's the final two home games that are must win and I like those odds.

Lbedrock1
12-05-2005, 08:59 PM
Donkhater there is a couple of things wrong with your predictions. KC will not lose to both Dallas and NY. I beleive we will beat Cinci and Dallas next week. SD will be a good game but tough. We may lose in New york but we will be 11-5. Pittsburgh will lose to chicago, they may not have much of and O but that D makes up for it.

tk13
12-05-2005, 09:03 PM
Under the scenario laid out above, SD and KC will have split their head-to-head matchup and have identical 4-2 division records having both lost at Denver. The next tie-breaker is conference record and KC would end up with the better conference record.

You are correct. THAT would eliminate SD and KC would win the tie-breaker with Pitt with the better conference record to get the 6th and final spot.

No, that is incorrect. When you're settling a division tie, common games is the next tiebreaker after division record. Conference record comes after both of those.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

donkhater
12-05-2005, 09:05 PM
No, that is incorrect. When you're settling a division tie, common games is the next tiebreaker after division record. Then comes conference record.
Yep, you're right. I hadn't realized that is the next step with in the division.

Under the above scenario, KC would be 8-6 and SD 10-4 in common games between the two. Damn, I thought I was on to something.

donkhater
12-05-2005, 09:07 PM
Actually, if SD loses to Denver instead of Indy, then KC would be in with a 10-6 record since they would have a better division record than SD.

irishjayhawk
12-05-2005, 09:07 PM
Pittsburgh won't beat Chicago.
That's exactly my thought when i read through it.

donkhater
12-05-2005, 09:10 PM
Actually should the scenario in the title post play out, Pittsburgh would get the #6 seed since they beat SD head-to-head.

tk13
12-05-2005, 09:10 PM
Actually, if SD loses to Denver instead of Indy, then KC would be in with a 10-6 record since they would have a better division record than SD.
Yes, now there's how the 10-6 thing would work...

tk13
12-05-2005, 09:24 PM
Here's another scenario where all three teams would go 10-6 and we'd get in.

KC:

at Dallas W
at NYG L
SD W
Cin L


SD:

Miami W
at Indy W
at KC L
Denver L


Pitt:

Chicago W
at Minnesota L
Cleveland W
Detroit W

carlos3652
12-05-2005, 09:28 PM
Here's another scenario where all three teams would go 10-6 and we'd get in.

KC:

at Dallas W
at NYG L
SD W
Cin L


SD:

Miami W
at Indy W (L)
at KC L
Denver L


Pitt:

Chicago W
at Minnesota L
Cleveland W
Detroit W

That would be better, and we wouldnt have to worry about SD...

DanT
12-05-2005, 09:29 PM
No, that is incorrect. When you're settling a division tie, common games is the next tiebreaker after division record. Conference record comes after both of those.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers


Thanks, tk13.

Halfcan
12-05-2005, 10:09 PM
Sorry but I see us really beating the crap out of Dallas. They are soft up the middle. We need to blitz the hell out of them.

KC 45 Cowgirls 10

cdcox
12-05-2005, 11:13 PM
There are plenty of ways that we can get in at 10-6. If I didn't screw up my calculations below, there are over 300 ways in fact.


Just considering the 3 teams here (Jacksonville or the Bengals could join in the mix) there are 11 games that they participate in. From this we can see that are 2^11 or 2048 different way that the season could play out for these 3 teams. Of these 2048 ways, a little more than a third of them (768 if my calcs are right) end with KC finishing 10-6. In my software the Chiefs qualify for the playoffs in 40% of the most likely senarios. Taking this ratio as representative, there would be about 300 different ways that KC could finish 10-6 and make the playoffs, just considering these 3 teams.

carlos3652
12-05-2005, 11:16 PM
There are plenty of ways that we can get in at 10-6. If I didn't screw up my calculations below, there are over 300 ways in fact.


Just considering the 3 teams here (Jacksonville or the Bengals could join in the mix) there are 11 games that they participate in. From this we can see that are 2^11 or 2048 different way that the season could play out for these 3 teams. Of these 2048 ways, a little more than a third of them (768 if my calcs are right) end with KC finishing 10-6. In my software the Chiefs qualify for the playoffs in 40% of the most likely senarios. Taking this ratio as representative, there would be about 300 different ways that KC could finish 10-6 and make the playoffs, just considering these 3 teams.


nerd :) :p

tk13
12-05-2005, 11:23 PM
Well, theoretically speaking, we could still get in at 9-7. I wouldn't put money on this scenario, but you could do it without there really being a huge upset, it's not that unrealistic. There probably will be a couple big upsets in this last month somewhere anyway.

KC:

at Dallas L
at NYG L
SD W
Cin L


SD:

Miami W
at Indy L
at KC L
Denver L


Pitt:

Chicago L
at Minnesota L
Cleveland W
Detroit W

All three teams finish 9-7, KC gets in.

Count Alex's Losses
12-05-2005, 11:26 PM
That's cool. Uh, no. It's not. NOT COOL. :shake:

cdcox
12-05-2005, 11:34 PM
nerd :) :p

Yep, I'm a dork sandwich.

BigRedChief
12-05-2005, 11:58 PM
We could win both road games and the Cincy game but lose to SD and be out of the playoffs. The SD game is the key.

Who wants to go in with a 9-7 record? There will be no momentum. We will have to win all of our playoff games on the road. We have to be playing well to pull that off not backing into the tournament.

Frazod
12-06-2005, 12:26 AM
Before I dare to believe in this team doing anything post-season related, I need to seem them beat Dallas this weekend. We need to beat a good team ON THE ROAD, and since that probably won't be the Giants, it'll have to be Dallas. If we can't, then it doesn't matter whether or not we make the playoffs.

KChiefsQT
12-06-2005, 01:46 AM
Let's just win ut and not worry about all this nonsense.
Amen. We're gonna beat the Cowboys foo sure. Bill Parcells will be pissin himself when were through with them.

Bob Dole
12-06-2005, 01:50 AM
If we can't go to Dallas and New York and come home with a win, we don't have any business being in the playoffs.

KChiefsQT
12-06-2005, 01:55 AM
If we can't go to Dallas and New York and come home with a win, we don't have any business being in the playoffs.
Damn right. We need to prove that we can be a decent team on the road. We're 0-0 clean slate as far as I'm concerned. We need to go 2-0 in the next two weeks. Prove to everyone that we're serious... get it done at home and we'll be playoff bound. We can do it... but will we??? da da da .. This chick can't wait for Sunday!!!!!!!!!!!