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View Full Version : Where's The Playoff Probablity Thread?


philfree
12-06-2005, 11:59 PM
I was just wanting to wee the updated probabilities. I was just looking at this weeks schedule and it looks to me like if we can win on the road at Dallas there's a good chance we will improve our wildcard position. There's a good chance that the Jags will lose this week which will put them at 9-4 in a tie with the Chiefs and Chargers if both teams win. If things play out the way it looks like it will to me I'm curious as to what the odds of the Chiefs making the playoffs will be at that point. I still want to win out and steal the West from the Donks but mind you I'm just looking at the short run at this moment.

PhilFree:arrow:

cdcox
12-07-2005, 12:07 AM
Run the software, ya lazy bum :)

Why do you think I wrote it and put it on the web for the whole universe.

Here's a screen shot.

philfree
12-07-2005, 12:10 AM
Run the software, ya lazy bum :)

Why do you think I wrote it and put it on the web for the whole universe.

Here's a screen shot.

It's more like I'm unqualified.

PhilFree:arrow:

carlos3652
12-07-2005, 12:17 AM
Are we favored over Chargers because of the easier schedule...?

cdcox
12-07-2005, 12:23 AM
Are we favored over Chargers because of the easier schedule...?

That's what it looks like. We have a slightly higher power rating, but they are really close. The software predicts that we will have a better record, and I'll bet that is a result of them playing Indy, who is head and shoulders better than anyone else in power rating.

Dunit35
12-07-2005, 12:28 AM
How come the probability for Cincy to get first seed is 0. The Colts could lose out and be 12-4, even though they wont.

cdcox
12-07-2005, 12:30 AM
How come the probability for Cincy to get first seed is 0. The Colts could lose out and be 12-4, even though they wont.

Because it didn't happen even once in 5000 random simulations. So the chances of it happening are pretty remote.

Dunit35
12-07-2005, 12:32 AM
Because it didn't happen even once in 5000 random simulations. So the chances of it happening are pretty remote.

Yeah I know, it was a joke.

cdcox
12-07-2005, 12:33 AM
Yeah I know, it was a joke.

Playoff predictions are no laughing matter. ROFL

Dunit35
12-07-2005, 12:33 AM
Playoff predictions are no laughing matter. ROFL


Hahaha, my bad. Dont want to upset the gods of football.

philfree
12-07-2005, 12:53 AM
So that's the probables going into week 14? So if my notion plays out and we win this week as well as the Donks and the Chargers but the Jags lose.........can we run the numbers and take a glimps at what the probables are would going into week 15?


PhilFree:arrow:

cdcox
12-07-2005, 01:09 AM
Based on your senario, KC's chances would go up to 56%, but that would go up or down depending if the Steelers won.

philfree
12-07-2005, 01:18 AM
Based on your senario, KC's chances would go up to 56%, but that would go up or down depending if the Steelers won.

I thought about adding a Steelers loss to Da Bears in but then I decided it was insignificant since they are a game behind us. Couldn't make that much difference in this scenario. Could it?


PhilFree:arrow:

philfree
12-07-2005, 01:23 AM
56%...Cool.....We gotta get it done this week.


PhilFree:arrow: