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View Full Version : Playoff scenerios made easy


BigRedChief
12-12-2005, 11:01 AM
We win out we are in the playoffs or We beat SD and either the Giants or Cincy and Pitt loses one game we are in the playoffs.So in these possible scenerios we will end up with the #6 seed.

If we are the #6 seed the #6 seed will play the #3 seed. As of right now its looking like its going to be Cincy.

If we play Cincy 2 weeks in a row I bet we will have and easy win on New Years Day because they will go with a vanilla playbook and save "stuff" for us in the playoff game and also whether they lose or win at Arrowhead probably will not matter. They will have the #3 seed all sewn up.

BTW we are assuming that the Jags take care of business with their easy schedule. They trip up a game and we win out now the scenerios get complicated.

Thig Lyfe
12-12-2005, 11:03 AM
The odds are pretty good IMO that the Chiefs make it in. Whether they'll do anything if they do get in... that seems a lot less likely.

But I'm still hopeful. Maybe more realistic than I was two days ago, but still hopeful.

phxchief
12-12-2005, 11:39 AM
Look, it's real simple - we DO NOT have to win out.

Let's say we win our 2 home games, lose to NY. I think that's a reasonable scenario.

That puts at 10-6. Even IF San Diego was to beat Indy AND Denver, they'd still only be 10-6. Then it's down to tie-breakers there.

Pittsburgh? They would have to go 2-1 to be 10-6 (certainly possible, I don't see them beating Minnesota in the Dome), and KC has the tie-breaker over the Steelers.

It's MUCH better for KC than the media is saying.

ferrarispider95
12-12-2005, 12:00 PM
Damn it would have been nice to win that game in Dallas, a little breathing room, but as long as we take care of our own business, we will be ok.

Warrior5
12-12-2005, 12:49 PM
Damn it would have been nice to win that game in Dallas, a little breathing room, but as long as we take care of our own business, we will be ok.

Yep; it's water under the bridge.

Saturday:
- watch, hope, pray the Chiefs can pull out an upset in NY.

Sunday:
- Steelers @ Vikes...C'mon Vikes!
- Chargers @ Colts...go Colts!
- 9ers @ Jags...uh, well...nevermind
- Lions @ Bengals...um, yeah

BigRedChief
12-12-2005, 01:02 PM
Yep; it's water under the bridge.

Saturday:
- watch, hope, pray the Chiefs can pull out an upset in NY.


don't need an upset in NY in a head to head tiebreaker with SD. We just have to win our two home games to beat them out for the playoffs. Same thing with Pitt if it loses one game.

And this is assuming that the Jags don't stumble against the cream puffs on their remaining schedule.

BigRock
12-12-2005, 01:02 PM
If the Steelers go 3-0 and we go 2-1, we're out. It's as simple as that. They have a much easier schedule than we do so we can hardly count on them losing a game. Until they lose, the only way KC gets into the playoffs is to run the table. There's no way we should be saying we don't need to win out UNTIL the Steelers lose one.

BigRedChief
12-12-2005, 01:03 PM
If the Steelers go 3-0 and we go 2-1, we're out. It's as simple as that. They have a much easier schedule than we do so we can hardly count on them losing a game. Until they lose, the only way KC gets into the playoffs is to run the table.

You are correct sir but they are not going to beat the Vikes on Sunday.

ARROW2
12-12-2005, 01:04 PM
OK. I'm over my madness now. The D let us down, point blank. We took the lead twice after LJ's missed block. The last time after Kennison's TD. We should stop them with 3:00 left, get the ball back, run the clock out. They didn't get it done. Yeah, we definitely got hosed on the call. Yes, he held, just like our man got tackled on the previous play, but call both or none at all, especially after the pass falls incomplete, and the infraction occurred seconds before the play.

sedated
12-12-2005, 01:04 PM
win and we're in

same place we were 7 days ago.

phxchief
12-12-2005, 01:55 PM
And I only just realized the Steelers go TO Cleveland.

Laugh, but that won't be an easy game. The Browns just took the Bengals to within an inch of their lives AT Cincy.

I can see an upset then, and Minnesota is getting better.

BigChiefFan
12-12-2005, 01:55 PM
I'm just glad the loss was against the NFC. It still stings, but we still have a shot. San Diego's loss was huge for us.

cdcox
12-12-2005, 02:33 PM
No, this is not true.

If KC, SD and Pittsburgh all finish at 10-6 (this is hte seanrio that you are laying out) then Pittsburgh will take the #6 seed. The division tiebreaker is used to break this tie. If KC loses to the Giants, the tie is broken at the common opponents level. Aganst the AFC W (4 games in common), AFC East (4 games in common), NFC East (4 games in common), KC's record would be 7-5, one game worse than SD's 8-4 record. If we lose to Cinncinatti instead, it would go all the way to strength of victory. But SD would have a decisive advantage here because they would have beaten Indy and Buffalo compated KC's victories over Houston and Miami. So they would take the tiebreaker no matter if we beat the Giants or Cincinnatti.

Once SD advances to the tiebreaker against Pitt, Pitt's head-to-head win would be decisive and they would claim the #6 seed.

cdcox
12-12-2005, 02:34 PM
Here is the easiest way to see the tiebreakers:

KC at 11-5 we would go.

KC at 10-6 and tied with:

Pitt => KC goes to the playoffs

SD => SD goes to the playoffs

SD and Pitt => Pitt goes to the playoffs

Other senario's enter with a complete collapes of Denver (and maybe Jacksonville) but those are very unlikely.

Calcountry
12-12-2005, 02:44 PM
The odds are pretty good IMO that the Chiefs make it in. Whether they'll do anything if they do get in... that seems a lot less likely.

But I'm still hopeful. Maybe more realistic than I was two days ago, but still hopeful.Actually, I like this scenario. At least I won't have my hopes up like in 03. Perhaps they finally hang onto a pick six, and win a game or two in the playoffs. Alas, I don't think anyone can beat the Colts this year.

BigRedChief
12-12-2005, 02:52 PM
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps. Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss. Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

BigRedChief
12-12-2005, 02:54 PM
No, this is not true.

If KC, SD and Pittsburgh all finish at 10-6 (this is hte seanrio that you are laying out) then Pittsburgh will take the #6 seed. The division tiebreaker is used to break this tie. If KC loses to the Giants, the tie is broken at the common opponents level..Look at the official rules. It never makes it to common opponents. The division tie breaker is not used. It's the next one. We have a one game lead in the conference. Assuming we beat SD at Arrowhead its the same for SD, it will go down to conference record deciding the playoff team. From the official rules for Pitt.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

htismaqe
12-12-2005, 03:12 PM
Look at the official rules. It never makes it to common opponents. The division tie breaker is not used. It's the next one. We have a one game lead in the conference. Assuming we beat SD at Arrowhead its the same for SD, it will go down to conference record deciding the playoff team. From the official rules for Pitt.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Considering his scenario has SD, Pitt, and KC all tied, the rules you stated don't apply...

BigRedChief
12-12-2005, 03:25 PM
Considering his scenario has SD, Pitt, and KC all tied, the rules you stated don't apply...
Yes with 3 clubs it works that way. but SD is gonna lose this week to Indy and then to us at Arrowhead so it will be a two team teibreaker and we have that edge. :harumph:

here's the official nfl rules page

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

WilliamTheIrish
12-12-2005, 04:36 PM
If the Steelers go 3-0 and we go 2-1, we're out. It's as simple as that. They have a much easier schedule than we do so we can hardly count on them losing a game. Until they lose, the only way KC gets into the playoffs is to run the table. There's no way we should be saying we don't need to win out UNTIL the Steelers lose one.

I don't think this team has the mettle to go 3-0.

They used up everything they had in that game at Dallas. They had everything going for them. 3 game winning streak, positive play by the O, the defense stuffing the Cowboys for1.5 quarters. Then in two plays..POOF!!! All gone.

Plus, they way we failed to cover the TE against the Cowboys has to have Giants O just begging for Saturday to get here.

We're gonna get waxed in NY, then collapse at home SD.

The Cinci game will be meaningless.

Johnson&Johnson
12-12-2005, 04:38 PM
Actually, I like this scenario. At least I won't have my hopes up like in 03. Perhaps they finally hang onto a pick six, and win a game or two in the playoffs. Alas, I don't think anyone can beat the Colts this year.

I like this scenario too but would have been good to win out strong in December and go 12-4.

You don't think anyone can beat the Colts? Ummm.. the one team that everyone, I mean every-one including the experts and media is forgetting is Mr. playoff & co. Yes...the New England Patriots.

Bellichik is loving it so much now that they are way way below everyone's radar screen and they quietly cruise into the playoff with likely the 3rd or 4th seed. If any team can make Peyton pee in his pants is facing the Patriots. Don't matter if he's got them at home, you think Dungy will sleep ...think about it, what are the chances of Indy going undeafeated into the SB...and them beating Patriots twice in a season... :smile:

HMc
12-12-2005, 05:24 PM
Look at the official rules. It never makes it to common opponents. The division tie breaker is not used. It's the next one. We have a one game lead in the conference. Assuming we beat SD at Arrowhead its the same for SD, it will go down to conference record deciding the playoff team. From the official rules for Pitt.
Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

No, it does make it to division tie breaker. read it again.

"Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2"

and the division tie breaker is..

"Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games."

cdcox
12-12-2005, 06:17 PM
Yes with 3 clubs it works that way. but SD is gonna lose this week to Indy and then to us at Arrowhead so it will be a two team teibreaker and we have that edge. :harumph:

here's the official nfl rules page

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

Well, sure if SD loses TWO games. But that wasn't your initial senario. :p


And I am well aware of the official rule for breaking ties. I've programmed it twice. :) This year doesn't even have any really complicated cases.

BigRedChief
12-12-2005, 06:27 PM
I don't think this team has the mettle to go 3-0.

They used up everything they had in that game at Dallas. They had everything going for them. 3 game winning streak, positive play by the O, the defense stuffing the Cowboys for1.5 quarters. Then in two plays..POOF!!! All gone.

Plus, they way we failed to cover the TE against the Cowboys has to have Giants O just begging for Saturday to get here.

We're gonna get waxed in NY, then collapse at home SD.

The Cinci game will be meaningless.

You are just full of holiday cheer.:shake:

KcMizzou
12-12-2005, 06:52 PM
I don't envy SD. Indy, KC and Denver to finish the season? That's rough.