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View Full Version : A ninety percent chance we will have the 18,19, or 20th pick of the draft


cdcox
12-26-2005, 11:56 AM
The earliest we will possibly pick is 18th.

If we lose it is about 97% certain we will be picking in the 19th slot.

If we win, its about 75% certain we will be picking in the 19th or 20th spot. There is a slight chance of picking in the low 20's but that involves either qualifying for the playoffs or NE or Washington qualifying at 9-7.

WebGem
12-26-2005, 12:46 PM
The earliest we will possibly pick is 18th.

If we lose it is about 97% certain we will be picking in the 19th slot.

If we win, its about 75% certain we will be picking in the 19th or 20th spot. There is a slight chance of picking in the low 20's but that involves either qualifying for the playoffs or NE or Washington qualifying at 9-7.
The 12 playoff teams all pick after the 20 who don't make it.

WebGem
12-26-2005, 12:47 PM
Plus, if SD beats Denver, they pick after us regardless of what we do. So, the latest we pick if they win is 19.

cdcox
12-26-2005, 01:06 PM
The 12 playoff teams all pick after the 20 who don't make it.

BZZZZZZZ. If a 10-6 team misses the playoffs but a 9-7 team makes the playoffs, the 9-7 team drafts first. Last year Baltimore and Jacksonville (two teams that missed the playoffs at 9-7) drafted after St.Louis and Minnesota (two teams that made the playoffs at 8-8). Making the playoffs is used as a tiebreaker only if the teams have the same record. Only the SB winner and loser can draft after a team with a better record.



TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

WebGem
12-26-2005, 01:08 PM
BZZZZZZZ. If a 10-6 team misses the playoffs but a 9-7 team makes the playoffs, the 9-7 team drafts first. Last year Baltimore and Jacksonville (two teams that missed the playoffs at 9-7) drafted after St.Louis and Minnesota (two teams that made the playoffs at 8-8). Making the playoffs is used as a tiebreaker only if the teams have the same record. Only the SB winner and loser can draft after a team with a better record.



TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.
That is retarded, and needs to be changed.

cdcox
12-26-2005, 01:10 PM
Plus, if SD beats Denver, they pick after us regardless of what we do. So, the latest we pick if they win is 19.

First sentence is true, second sentence is false. We could pick as late as 21 if KC and SD both win.

cdcox
12-26-2005, 01:14 PM
That is retarded, and needs to be changed.

I think the NFL considers record to be a better indicator of team quality than whether you made the playoffs. I do think record is a better indicator of team strength.

Tribal Warfare
12-26-2005, 01:19 PM
Marcus McNeill territory :D

htismaqe
12-26-2005, 01:35 PM
Marcus McNeill territory :D

Great territory too if we were looking for a safety.

nascher
12-26-2005, 01:39 PM
between 18-21 it's not really important.

last year

18 18 Minnesota James, Erasmus DE 6-4 263 Wisconsin
19 19 St. Louis Barron, Alex OT 6-7 320 Florida State
20 20 Dallas (from Buffalo) Spears, Marcus DE 6-4 298 Louisiana State
21 21 Jacksonville Jones, Matt WR 6-6 242 Arkansas

good territory to pick our future QB !!!

htismaqe
12-26-2005, 02:00 PM
between 18-21 it's not really important.

last year

18 18 Minnesota James, Erasmus DE 6-4 263 Wisconsin
19 19 St. Louis Barron, Alex OT 6-7 320 Florida State
20 20 Dallas (from Buffalo) Spears, Marcus DE 6-4 298 Louisiana State
21 21 Jacksonville Jones, Matt WR 6-6 242 Arkansas

good territory to pick our future QB !!!

You were dead-on until the last sentence.

We're in a prime position to fill an area of need (DE, S, OT) with an IMMEDIATE starter and you want to throw that pick away on a QB that won't see the field for 2 years minimum?

We should look for a QB in the 3rd or 4th round...

beavis
12-26-2005, 02:17 PM
You were dead-on until the last sentence.

We're in a prime position to fill an area of need (DE, S, OT) with an IMMEDIATE starter and you want to throw that pick away on a QB that won't see the field for 2 years minimum?

We should look for a QB in the 3rd or 4th round...
Well, I agree with you until your last sentence. How likely is it that a 3rd or 4th round QB is going to ever be anything more than a backup? Fill depth, or find another position of need.

cdcox
12-26-2005, 02:21 PM
Joe Montana was taken in the 3rd Round.
Tom Brady in the 6th.

Tribal Warfare
12-26-2005, 02:24 PM
Joe Montana was taken in the 3rd Round.
Tom Brady in the 6th.

Hell, Bart Starr wasn't even drafted

Skip Towne
12-26-2005, 05:17 PM
Plus, if SD beats Denver, they pick after us regardless of what we do. So, the latest we pick if they win is 19.
Why do you keep posting erroneous shit?

blsilks
12-26-2005, 05:42 PM
The Chiefs are cursed. We will always be the worst of the best in the NFL and as Chief fans we are prooving to be more dedicated then a Bengales fan sitting in the Jungle 7 years ago.

milkman
12-26-2005, 06:01 PM
Hell, Bart Starr wasn't even drafted

I'm pretty sure Starr was a late round draft pick, who fell in the draft as a result of injury in his senior season.

Yep, just looked it up.

http://football.about.com/cs/legends/p/bartstarr.htm