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alnorth
12-30-2005, 02:37 PM
Looking around the internet at various money lines, I tried to come up with what a "fair" money line might be for each game. (theoretical equal, which isnt found in a casino)

I came up with:

(updated 1/1/2006)

Chiefs -300
Broncos (Win)
Lions +600

On the surface this seems reasonable to me. Mathematically, the expected chance of hitting both of those money lines would be about 10.7%

In the wildly optimistic scenario:

(updated 1/1/2006)

Chiefs -400
Broncos (Win)
Lions +400

This would work out to be 16%.

So, in the wildly optimistic scenario, I put the Chiefs at an 16% chance of playing after this weekend. Realistically: 10.7%

Hoover
12-30-2005, 02:38 PM
So your telling me there's a chance!

alnorth
12-30-2005, 02:39 PM
So your telling me there's a chance!

A very small one. :(

Skip Towne
12-30-2005, 02:40 PM
So your telling me there's a chance!
Just until about this time tomorrow.

sedated
12-30-2005, 02:41 PM
what happened to all that one-in-a-million talk?

alnorth
12-30-2005, 02:42 PM
Just until about this time tomorrow.

Even if San Diego goes down tomorrow, our realistic odds only improve to 10.7% on Sunday.

Hoover
12-30-2005, 03:04 PM
It was a dumb and dumb movie quote....

SLAG
12-30-2005, 03:09 PM
It was a dumb and dumb movie quote....

I think it was a dumber movie quote

Iowanian
12-30-2005, 03:15 PM
Its possible, but there is a better chance of seeing gochiefs and slayer dping jenna on cable sunday.

tommykat
12-30-2005, 07:04 PM
Even if San Diego goes down tomorrow, our realistic odds only improve to 10.7% on Sunday.

San Diego won't go down.......Donks will throw the game.

alnorth
01-01-2006, 10:09 AM
Odds updated, I figure we have about a 1 in 10 shot now.

4th and Long
01-01-2006, 10:11 AM
Its possible, but there is a better chance of seeing gochiefs and slayer dping jenna on cable sunday.
I'd pay to see that but only if gochiefs and slayer were removed from the picture.

FringeNC
01-01-2006, 10:18 AM
Odds updated, I figure we have about a 1 in 10 shot now.

Nah...Detroit would be more than a 9:1 underdog all by itself at a whopping +16. I say about a 3% chance.

alnorth
01-01-2006, 10:20 AM
Well, I'm giving the Chiefs a 75% chance to win today, so if we assume the Lions have a 1 in 10 shot, that puts our own chances at 7.5%