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View Full Version : Wow...this is beginning to get very serious (oil thread)


oldandslow
04-19-2006, 12:11 PM
Light Crude (NYM) June 06 ($US per bbl.) 73.85 +0.76

Are we gonna get in the 80 dollar range????

patteeu
04-19-2006, 12:21 PM
Light Crude (NYM) June 06 ($US per bbl.) 73.85 +0.76

Are we gonna get in the 80 dollar range????

My money is on "yes."

oldandslow
04-19-2006, 12:27 PM
My money is on "yes."

I agree...

and $4.00 gas will follow.

I see where chucky schumer is "demanding" an investigation into price gouging.

He might do better to spend his time and energy "demanding" alternative energy.

Sometimes democrats drive me frigging crazy.

patteeu
04-19-2006, 12:50 PM
I agree...

and $4.00 gas will follow.

I see where chucky schumer is "demanding" an investigation into price gouging.

He might do better to spend his time and energy "demanding" alternative energy.

Sometimes democrats drive me frigging crazy.

Going into the 2004 elections, my theory was that Bush would win unless gas was over $2.00 per gallon. IIRC, it was a little over $2.00 per gallon then so I was wrong, but Bush only won by a whisker. I would think that dems could make big political hay out of rapidly increasing gas prices. Unfortunately for them, elections occur when summer gas prices are receding and winter fuel prices haven't taken off yet and Americans have short memories. I don't think it will happen, but if we have $4.00 gas this fall , I'd bet on a big swing in the House and maybe a change of management in the Senate too.

banyon
04-19-2006, 09:13 PM
Dan Bartlett Caught In A Lie: ‘No One Ever Said The War Would Result In Cheaper Gas Prices’

Appearing this afternoon on MSNBC’s Hardball, White House Counselor Dan Barlett adamantly denied that anyone in the administration claimed that the Iraq war would lead to lower gas prices. The transcript:

MATTHEWS: [W]e’ve been struck by higher gas prices. That was another promise made, that this war would help us get cheaper gas —

BARTLETT: I don’t think —

MATTHEWS: None of these promises come through.

BARTLETT: That’s not correct, Chris. The president or no one else ever said that this war was going to result in cheaper gas prices…

MATTHEWS: Ok, so just to make it official, Dan, no one in the administration has ever said that we would have cheaper gas because of war in Iraq, just to make it official?

BARTLETT: I don’t recall anybody ever saying that, Chris.

As Matthews noted later in the broadcast, Laurence Lindsey – President Bush’s senior economic advisor at the time — argued in 2002 that the Iraq war would increase oil supplies and lower prices. From the Washington Times, 9/19/02:

As for the impact of a war with Iraq, “It depends how the war goes.” But he quickly adds that that “Under every plausible scenario, the negative effect will be quite small relative to the economic benefits that would come from a successful prosecution of the war.”

“The key issue is oil, and a regime change in Iraq would facilitate an increase in world oil,” which would drive down oil prices, giving the U.S. economy an added boost.

video (http://movies.crooksandliars.com/Hardball-Bartlett-deniedlower-gas.wmv)

'Hamas' Jenkins
04-19-2006, 09:22 PM
I just spent 40 bucks to fill up a motherf*cking ford taurus today. WTF!! :cuss:

DenverChief
04-20-2006, 04:37 AM
Thank gawd the Colorado Legislature is looking into eliminating the gas tax to help relieve some of the burden

Kraut
04-20-2006, 06:01 AM
Thank gawd the Colorado Legislature is looking into eliminating the gas tax to help relieve some of the burden
That would be great ...Most states have a heavy gas tax. But I doubt many of them would be kind enough to lift it. My family lives in PA and that turd Ed Rendell has something like a .60 cent tax on the gas. :shake:

oldandslow
04-20-2006, 07:35 AM
Lifting the state gas tax will have little impact upon price and then your roads fall apart.

The avg state gas tax is about 24 cents. Nobody has a 60 cent gas tax.



Gasoline Tax Rates by State
Note: The Federal Gas Tax is 18.4 cpg


State Gas(cpg) Diesal
Alabama 18 19
Alaska 8 8
Arizona 18 18
Arkansas 21.5 22.5
California 18 18 Other taxes include a 6% state sales tax and 1.25% county, plus additional local sales taxes and 1.2 cents per gallon state UST fee.

Colorado 22 20.5
Connecticut 25 26
Delaware 23 22 --
Dist. of Col 20 20 --
Florida 14.5 27.2
Georgia 7.5 7.5 Plus 4% sales tax.
Hawaii 16 16 Plus 4% sales tax and additional county taxes and 0.12-cpg environmental response tax.
Idaho 25 25 --
Illinois 19 21.5 Plus 6.25% sales tax
Indiana 18 16 Plus 6% sales tax
Iowa 20 22.5
Kansas 24 26 Plus 1 cpg environmental fee.
Kentucky 15 12
Louisiana 20 20 --
Maine 25.2 26.3
Maryland 23.5 24.25 --
Massachusetts 23.5 23.5
Michigan 19 15 Plus 6% sales tax
Minnesota 20 20
Mississippi 18 18
Missouri 17 17 Governor signed legislation in 2002 that included removal of the 2008 expiration date of the 6-cpg temporary gasoline tax increase adopted by voters in 1992.
Montana 27.75 28.5
Nebraska 25.4 25.4
Nevada 23 27
New Hampshire 18 18
New Jersey 14.5 17.5
New Mexico 17 18 Plus 1 cpg loading fee.
New York 31.9 28.9
North Carolina 26.6 26.6 North Dakota 21 21 --
Ohio 26 26 Per 2003 legislation, rate increases 6 cpg in 2-year increments. First increase took effect 6/30/03. 7/1/04 rate increased another 2 cents per gallon (to 26 cents per gallon). Surcharge of 3 cpg for commercial vehicles.
Oklahoma 16 13 Plus 1 cpg per gallon UST fee.
Oregon 24 24 --
Pennsylvania 31.1 35.1
Rhode Island 30 30
South Carolina 16 16 .
South Dakota 22 22 Plus a 2-cpg throughput tax on distributors.
Tennessee 20 18 Plus 1-cent special petroleum tax for gasoline and .4 cpg environmental assurance fee.
Texas 20 20 --
Utah 24.5 24.5 --
Vermont 17.5 26 .
Virginia 17.5 16 Plus
Washington 28 28
West Virginia 20.5 20.5 Plus a 5% variable wholesale tax,
Wisconsin 32.1 32.1 Variable --
Wyoming 14 14

jiveturkey
04-20-2006, 07:42 AM
Dan Bartlett Caught In A Lie: ‘No One Ever Said The War Would Result In Cheaper Gas Prices’

Appearing this afternoon on MSNBC’s Hardball, White House Counselor Dan Barlett adamantly denied that anyone in the administration claimed that the Iraq war would lead to lower gas prices. The transcript:

MATTHEWS: [W]e’ve been struck by higher gas prices. That was another promise made, that this war would help us get cheaper gas —

BARTLETT: I don’t think —

MATTHEWS: None of these promises come through.

BARTLETT: That’s not correct, Chris. The president or no one else ever said that this war was going to result in cheaper gas prices…

MATTHEWS: Ok, so just to make it official, Dan, no one in the administration has ever said that we would have cheaper gas because of war in Iraq, just to make it official?

BARTLETT: I don’t recall anybody ever saying that, Chris.

As Matthews noted later in the broadcast, Laurence Lindsey – President Bush’s senior economic advisor at the time — argued in 2002 that the Iraq war would increase oil supplies and lower prices. From the Washington Times, 9/19/02:

As for the impact of a war with Iraq, “It depends how the war goes.” But he quickly adds that that “Under every plausible scenario, the negative effect will be quite small relative to the economic benefits that would come from a successful prosecution of the war.”

“The key issue is oil, and a regime change in Iraq would facilitate an increase in world oil,” which would drive down oil prices, giving the U.S. economy an added boost.

video (http://movies.crooksandliars.com/Hardball-Bartlett-deniedlower-gas.wmv)

I'm guessing that Dan's OH Shit warning indicators were going crazy when Chris said "just to make it official".

mlyonsd
04-20-2006, 07:50 AM
Until this country wakes up and makes a concerted effort to replace gas burning passenger vehicles to something like hydrogen get used to high prices.

oldandslow
04-20-2006, 08:01 AM
Until this country wakes up and makes a concerted effort to replace gas burning passenger vehicles to something like hydrogen get used to high prices.

Damn...

how come we think alike on so many other things...

and yet are so far apart on Iraq.

Anyway, you are 100% correct.

oldandslow
04-20-2006, 08:33 AM
BTW...This article sums up our problems quite well...

http://www.energybulletin.net/15126.html

Published on 20 Apr 2006 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 20 Apr 2006.

What the mainstream media are not telling you about the run up in oil prices
by Jeffrey J. Brown


Oil prices are up substantially since mid-February. Most of the Mainstream Media (MSM) attribute this run up in oil prices to geopolitical tensions. However, a careful examination of recent supply data provided by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) suggest a different reason--oil importers are bidding against each other for available total petroleum (crude oil + product) imports.

Since the week ending 2/10/06, average daily US net petroleum imports have fallen about 15%, down about two mbpd. Since the week ending 2/24/06, on a smoothed, four week running average basis, average daily US net petroleum imports have fallen about 8%, down about one mbpd. (A comparable time period last year showed about a 2% decline.)

This sharp decline in net US petroleum imports corresponded to the beginning of the recent run up in oil prices.

It is true that we have relatively high crude oil inventories, but note that we don't know what percentage of crude oil inventories consists of heavy, sour crude, which cannot be used in light, sweet crude oil refineries. Also, total product inventories are up only slightly year over year. It is quite possible that building inventories of heavy, sour crude oil have been obscuring falling inventories of light, sweet crude oil inventories.

Why is This Decline in Imports Important?

Producing regions tend to peak and then decline when they have used about 50% of their total recoverable conventional oil reserves (Qt).

Kenneth Deffeyes, using a method called Hubbert Linearization (HL), estimated that the world crossed the 50% of (conventional crude + condensate) Qt mark in December, 2005. According to the EIA, December 2005 was the all time record high for world crude + condensate production. The latest data, for January, 2006, show a decline of about 500,000 bpd.

In an article that “Khebab” and I coauthored, “M. King Hubbert’s Lower 48 Prediction Revisited,” we evaluated the accuracy of the HL technique as a predictive tool, once a region has hit the 50% of Qt mark.

As most people know, Dr. Hubbert, in 1956, accurately predicted that US Lower 48 oil production would peak around its actual peak in 1970. Using only production data through 1970, we found that actual post-1970 cumulative Lower 48 oil production was 99% of what the HL method predicted. We concluded that Dr. Deffeyes’ prediction that the world peaked in 2005 should be given a lot of credibility.

In our article, we also analyzed the top four net oil exporters worldwide, and we found that they are collectively farther down the depletion curve than the world is overall. In the article, we had the following statements:

A critical point to keep in mind is that an exporter can only export what is left after domestic consumption is satisfied.

Consider a simple example, a country producing 2.0 mbpd, consuming 1.0 mbpd and therefore exporting 1.0 mbpd. Let's assume a 25% drop in production over a six year period (which we have seen in the North Sea, which by the way peaked at 52% of Qt) and let's assume a 10% increase in domestic consumption. Production would be 1.5 mbpd. Consumption would be 1.1 mbpd. Net exports would be production (1.5 mbpd) less consumption (1.1 mbpd) = 0.4 mbpd. Therefore, because of a 25% drop in production and because of a 10% increase in domestic consumption, net oil exports from our hypothetical net exporter dropped by 60%, from 1.0 mbpd to 0.4 mbpd, over a six year period.

We are deeply concerned that the world is probably facing an imminent and catastrophic collapse in net oil export capacity because of declining production and increasing domestic consumption in the top exporting countries.

Consider the simple math. If Deffeyes is correct that the world oil production peaked in December, 2005, then we will use--at our current rate of consumption--more than 10% of all remaining conventional crude + condensate reserves in the next four years.

Why Aren’t the MSM Discussing the Import Situation?

I think that we are seeing an "Iron Triangle" of sorts defending the status quo concept of ever expanding energy supplies: (1) most housing, auto, financing and related companies; (2) Most MSM companies that are selling advertising to Group #1 and (3) some major oil companies, major oil exporters and energy analysts that are working for the major oil companies and exporters.

The housing/auto group wants to keep selling and financing large homes and SUV's.

The MSM wants to keep selling advertising to the housing/auto group.

In my opinion, some major oil companies are afraid of punitive taxation, and some exporters are afraid of military takeovers. This group of oil companies, exporters and their analysts provide the intellectual ammunition for the other two groups, i.e., promising trillions and trillions of barrels of conventional and nonconventional oil reserves.

Is There a Solution?

There is one important exception to housing/auto group: Mike Jackson, the CEO of AutoNation, is calling for a much higher gasoline tax. While this is a start, I recommend a much higher energy tax, offset by the elimination of the Payroll Tax, combined with a crash electrification of transportation program, as outlined by consulting engineer Alan Drake, see link below.

Jeffrey J. Brown is a petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area.
westexas@aol.com

M. King Hubbert's Lower 48 Prediction Revisited
www.energybulletin.net/13575.html

EIA Supply Data
tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

Electrification of Transportation as a Response to Peaking of World Oil Production
www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2005-02.htm

irishjayhawk
04-20-2006, 08:54 AM
I do believe this is not a gas shortage, merely an attempt to capitalize on people thinking that there is one. Let's hope congress can get their shit together.

oldandslow
04-20-2006, 09:03 AM
I do believe this is not a gas shortage, merely an attempt to capitalize on people thinking that there is one. Let's hope congress can get their shit together.

Yeah, it's the evil oil companies....

When are people going to realize that oil is a finite resource ... and we should be utilizing that resource to find alternatives ... and not waste it in the latest muscle SUV.

Congress needs to get it together, all right. But not in the way that you are thinking.

If the Church of the Free Market is right then these high oil prices will cause a new wave in tech gadgetry to take care of our problems.

If it is wrong...government had better mandate the creation of alternative energy sources.

If none of that works... welcome 1850 all over again.

way2kalm
04-20-2006, 01:42 PM
I just spent 40 bucks to fill up a motherf*cking ford taurus today. WTF!! :cuss:

Don't feel too bad, I spend $32.00 to fill up a f**king cavalier!!! :cuss:
I feel your pain, brother!

patteeu
04-20-2006, 01:46 PM
Don't feel too bad, I spend $32.00 to fill up a f**king cavalier!!! :cuss:
I feel your pain, brother!

I broke $50 for the first time the other day in my 14mpg F-150. I'm kind of glad we bought my wife a 34mpg Honda Civic a few months ago now. She hates it when I always want to borrow her car to save money though.

Duck Dog
04-20-2006, 02:02 PM
Try filling up the F250 and the twin 24 gal tanks in the Ranger bass boat.

DenverChief
04-21-2006, 12:25 AM
Lifting the state gas tax will have little impact upon price and then your roads fall apart.

The avg state gas tax is about 24 cents. Nobody has a 60 cent gas tax.



Gasoline Tax Rates by State
Note: The Federal Gas Tax is 18.4 cpg


State Gas(cpg) Diesal
Alabama 18 19
Alaska 8 8
Arizona 18 18
Arkansas 21.5 22.5
California 18 18 Other taxes include a 6% state sales tax and 1.25% county, plus additional local sales taxes and 1.2 cents per gallon state UST fee.

Colorado 22 20.5
Connecticut 25 26
Delaware 23 22 --
Dist. of Col 20 20 --
Florida 14.5 27.2
Georgia 7.5 7.5 Plus 4% sales tax.
Hawaii 16 16 Plus 4% sales tax and additional county taxes and 0.12-cpg environmental response tax.
Idaho 25 25 --
Illinois 19 21.5 Plus 6.25% sales tax
Indiana 18 16 Plus 6% sales tax
Iowa 20 22.5
Kansas 24 26 Plus 1 cpg environmental fee.
Kentucky 15 12
Louisiana 20 20 --
Maine 25.2 26.3
Maryland 23.5 24.25 --
Massachusetts 23.5 23.5
Michigan 19 15 Plus 6% sales tax
Minnesota 20 20
Mississippi 18 18
Missouri 17 17 Governor signed legislation in 2002 that included removal of the 2008 expiration date of the 6-cpg temporary gasoline tax increase adopted by voters in 1992.
Montana 27.75 28.5
Nebraska 25.4 25.4
Nevada 23 27
New Hampshire 18 18
New Jersey 14.5 17.5
New Mexico 17 18 Plus 1 cpg loading fee.
New York 31.9 28.9
North Carolina 26.6 26.6 North Dakota 21 21 --
Ohio 26 26 Per 2003 legislation, rate increases 6 cpg in 2-year increments. First increase took effect 6/30/03. 7/1/04 rate increased another 2 cents per gallon (to 26 cents per gallon). Surcharge of 3 cpg for commercial vehicles.
Oklahoma 16 13 Plus 1 cpg per gallon UST fee.
Oregon 24 24 --
Pennsylvania 31.1 35.1
Rhode Island 30 30
South Carolina 16 16 .
South Dakota 22 22 Plus a 2-cpg throughput tax on distributors.
Tennessee 20 18 Plus 1-cent special petroleum tax for gasoline and .4 cpg environmental assurance fee.
Texas 20 20 --
Utah 24.5 24.5 --
Vermont 17.5 26 .
Virginia 17.5 16 Plus
Washington 28 28
West Virginia 20.5 20.5 Plus a 5% variable wholesale tax,
Wisconsin 32.1 32.1 Variable --
Wyoming 14 14


24 cents off of $2.79 would be a good start