PDA

View Full Version : Gretz tries to narrow it down


shaneo69
04-28-2006, 07:27 PM
GRETZ: DRAFT WEEK - Chiefs On The Clock
Apr 28, 2006, 8:41:47 AM by Bob Gretz

Visitors to this space know that I mock the mock drafts. They are a giant waste of time. Hereís what happens with 99 percent of the mock drafts that youíll find in the local fish wrap, on the Internet or over the radio: itís a bunch of sportswriters and golden throats who talk to each other and make decision on players they know nothing about and for teams they may cover, but have hardly a clue how that club feels about those various players.

Itís especially silly to try to guess the draft beyond the first 10 to 15 choices. There are too many opportunities for strange decisions as the first round goes on and the more talented players go off the board. Add in the fact that teams are working harder these days at keeping their cards close to their vests. For instance, should someone try to convince you theyíve got inside information from Arrowhead Stadium they are a liar, because the Chiefs have buttoned up the information pipeline tighter than Iíve seen it in 25 years.

That doesnít mean we still donít try to figure out who will be the 20th selection in the first round. Thatís one of the reasons the NFL Draft is the biggest non-action event on the sporting calendar because everybody gets to play general manager for a few days.

Hereís the Gretz Mock Method for narrowing down a teamís potential first-round choice. It has three parts:

Talent on hand.

Talent available in draft class.

Decision makers/history

Letís start with the Chiefs roster as it stands today. There are 75 players currently under contract and some positions are light. There are only five safeties and six defensive tackles. There are seven wide receivers. There are 11 cornerbacks, but only five have real NFL playing experience.

Age must be considered because the older the player, the closer he is to the end of his career. The Chiefs opened last season as the third oldest team in the league, with an average age of 27.6 years. Only New Orleans and Washington had older rosters. The Chiefs had 18 players that were 30 or older, more than any team in the league.

Off-season moves saw plenty of 30-somethings dispatched, but right now the Chiefs still have 18 players who will be 30 or older by the end of the coming season and 10 are starters. The biggest group is on the offensive line: with LT Willie Roaf (36), RG Will Shields (35), C Casey Wiegmann (33) and G-T John Welbourn (30.) QB Trent Green (36), WR Eddie Kennison (32), S Sammy Knight (31), DT Lional Dalton (31), CB Pat Surtain (30) and DE Eric Hicks (30) are also in the starting lineup.

Next comes the talent level of the players on hand. With the Chiefs, that helps narrow the field of potential first round choices even more. Itís no secret the defense has lagged behind the offense. Right now, this teams needs four players on that side of the ball to pump up the roster: two defensive tackles, a cornerback and a safety. A defensive end talent would be a great addition as well. Offensively, itís a roster that needs a wide receiver and possibly running back, depending on the status of Priest Holmes. More on each spot:

DEFENSIVE TACKLE: right now the rotation includes two disappointing early draft choices (Ryan Sims and Junior Siavii), an 11-year veteran with an injury history (John Browning) and a former undrafted college free agent (Lional Dalton.)

CORNERBACK: A starting mate for Patrick Surtain is needed and right now the choices are a grizzled veteran (Dewayne Washington), two young veterans found wanting by other teams (Chris Johnson and Lenny Walls), an undrafted nickel back (Benny Sapp) and an untested former third-rounder coming off an injury (Julian Battle.)

SAFETY: Greg Wesley appears solid, but veteran Sammy Knight is at the end of a very good NFL career. Behind them are two veterans at the end of their careers (Jerome Woods and William Bartee.)

WIDE RECEIVER: Eddie Kennison is the No. 1 guy, but heís 33. Samie Parker is No. 2 and Dante Hall is the No. 4 or 5 guy. That leaves a No. 3 receiver spot open, with two former draft choices trying to elevate their games to that spot (Craphonso Thorpe and Jeris McIntyre.)

RUNNING BACK: If Holmes is one, thereís a hole in the roster. Thereís no doubt Larry Johnson is the No. 1 guy, but a strong backup is needed.

Now, whatís available in this yearís draft? The class of 2006 is top heavy on defense. Take the top 25 players and most teams will have a group that breaks down about 2 to 1 for the defense. Itís a big year for defensive backs and defensive linemen. There could be as many as nine cornerbacks and safeties taken in the first round. Itís a bad year for wide receivers, with maybe only two or three going in round No. 1. Itís the same at running back.

There are some players we know the Chiefs wonít get a shot at drafting: RB Reggie Bush, QBs Matt Leinart, Vince Young and Jay Cutler, OT DíBrickshaw Ferguson, TE Vernon Davis, LB A.J. Hawk, S Michael Huff and DE Mario Williams.

The final factors in the equation are the decision makers and history. GM Carl Peterson makes the final decision, but the Chiefs head coach always has a major say-so in the draft. The personnel department, now under the direction of Bill Kuharich, has already had its influence, that coming in the discussion and grading of the players over the last month. The coaching staff is in the loop as well, especially the coordinators, and especially defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham.

So what does history tell us about Edwards and Peterson? We looked at Petersonís record in the first round earlier this week (Chiefs Skinny/Wednesday, April 26.) Overall, in the last 10 drafts, the Chiefs have taken 38 players on offense, 33 on defense and a punter. In the last five drafts, the numbers are 20 on defense, 17 on offense and the punter. In the last three drafts among the first-day picks (rounds 1-3) the Chiefs used six of nine choices on defense: five draft selections and a second-round pick traded to Miami for CB Patrick Surtain. Conclusion: the Chiefs have not ignored either side of the ball, but in the last few drafts have concentrated on defense.

In five drafts where Edwards was involved, the New York Jets drafted 19 on defense, 16 on offense and a kicker. Nine of those 19 were defensive backs. In the first round, it was three on defense, one on offense. In first-day picks, it was eight of 13 on defense. Conclusion: Edwards doesnít mind drafting defensive players, especially along the line and at linebacker.

Those are the facts. Hereís where the guessing starts and this guyís opinions:

The Chiefs will go defense in round one, maybe for all three picks on the first day. They desperately need to upgrade the talent level with first-day picks.

No matter the name, the first-round pick will need two characteristics: speed and a mean streak. The Chiefs defense is in desperate need of both.

They must get four defensive players who can challenge for starting jobs by 2007: corner, safety and two defensive tackles. Again, a defensive end would be nice as well.

The cornerback position is deep, but there are question marks around almost every single guy: lack of experience at the position, size, coming off an injury, attitude, bad hands, etc. Understand this: Gunther Cunningham is not interested in projects. He doesnít want a guy who might become a better safety. If heís drafting a safety, he wants a safety. If heís drafting a cornerback, he wants a cornerback.

OK, let the guessing begin. I promise not to mock you.


http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2006/04/28/gretz_draft_week__chiefs_on_the_clock/

alanm
04-28-2006, 07:36 PM
I guess that leaves Phil out of the loop then.ROFL

unlurking
04-28-2006, 07:40 PM
Does Gretz ever write article where the opening doesn't complain about something?

Logical
04-28-2006, 07:48 PM
SAFETY: Greg Wesley appears solid, but veteran Sammy Knight is at the end of a very good NFL career. Goodbye credibility

Count Alex's Losses
04-28-2006, 07:53 PM
Goodbye credibility

No kidding. Knight is what, 31? Yeah, he's SO OLD. :rolleyes:

JBucc
04-28-2006, 07:55 PM
C Casey Wiegmann (33) I didn't think Casey was that old.

milkman
04-28-2006, 08:32 PM
Goodbye credibility

How about this for credibility?

Understand this: Gunther Cunningham is not interested in projects. He doesnít want a guy who might become a better safety. If heís drafting a safety, he wants a safety. If heís drafting a cornerback, he wants a cornerback.

Wasn't Gunt the one who wanted to draft 2 college safeties (Warfield and Bartee) to convert to corner?

And what about Battle?

KC_John
04-28-2006, 09:07 PM
Does Gretz ever write article where the opening doesn't complain about something?

I agree totally LOL.. This guy has complained constantly about others giving there thoughts and opinions on the Chiefs. Give me a break, what else is there todo! And yet he turns around and does the same thing he bashes others for doing. Dont get me wrong I read his articles and find some informative.

As for what the Chiefs will do on there first pick , my guess is they will take the best Defensive player available(in there humble opinion)regardless of what position it is, cuz frankly we could use help everywhere. I kinda felt thats what they meant during there press conference.

Ari Chi3fs
04-28-2006, 09:12 PM
Bartee was near the end of his career, right out of college. Or at least, should have been.

milkman
04-28-2006, 09:33 PM
Bartee was near the end of his career, right out of college. Or at least, should have been.

The interesting thing is, according to Gretz, Wesley appears solid while Bartee is at the end of his career, yet they were drafted in the same draft.

Halfcan
04-28-2006, 09:36 PM
The interesting thing is, according to Gretz, Wesley appears solid while Bartee is at the end of his career, yet they were drafted in the same draft.

Gretz can't even decide which ass cheek to kiss on King Carl on a daily basis, let alone decide draft picks. Maybe by next week he will figure it out.