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cdcox
06-18-2006, 09:30 PM
I've added a bunch of new features to the software (available for free and http://nfl-forecast.com ) for this year:

1) Preseason predictions - I posted some preliminary predictions from 2006 a few weeks ago. But the power ratings and 2006 schedule are now loaded in the software so you can run the software on your own. The preseason power ratings will be available all season long, together with updated power ratings once the season gets started.

2) Odds for the outcome of every game can be individually adjusted using a slider.

3) You don't have to wade through the long list of every game of the season. You can select games from any combination of teams and sort them be week or by team.

4) Cleaned up a ton of little bugs and formatting issues.

Let me know if you find any bugs. The most common problem is not having JRE 5.0 loaded. I've provided a link.

I'm also open to suggestions on features you would like or improvements to usability. I'll probably go through at least one, if not two more development cycles this season.

I'm really trying to promote the software this year in order to get a larger audience. Any assistance in this regard (mention on other message boards, mention to friends, web links) will be greatly appreciated.

DaFace
06-18-2006, 09:35 PM
Awesome! We've got a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl! ;)

cdcox
06-18-2006, 09:39 PM
Awesome! We've got a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl! ;)

Hey, if we had a 4% chace of winning the Super Bowl for each of the last 36 years, there is a 77% chance we would have won one since 1970.

That 4% is nothing to sneeze at.

NJ Chief Fan
06-18-2006, 09:48 PM
were do i get the 2006 version

cdcox
06-18-2006, 09:53 PM
were do i get the 2006 version

Go to nfl-forecast.com

click "Launch Pro-Football Forecast"

If you're wanting signficant changes in the power ratings, you probably have to wait till the season starts.

stumppy
06-18-2006, 10:26 PM
Very cool. Thanks Man.:thumb:

NJ Chief Fan
06-18-2006, 10:27 PM
Go to nfl-forecast.com

click "Launch Pro-Football Forecast"

If you're wanting signficant changes in the power ratings, you probably have to wait till the season starts.

ahh...the first time i did that it was the 2005 season

Monkeylook4food
06-18-2006, 10:27 PM
SPAM!!!

cdcox
06-18-2006, 10:30 PM
ahh...the first time i did that it was the 2005 season


That's weird. The 2006 version has been associated with that link for almost 24 hours. Come to think of it, I think the first time I hit the updated link it gave me the 2005 version as well.

cdcox
06-18-2006, 10:32 PM
SPAM!!!
You and the other boards on the scout network are next. I'll probably hit a division or two a week.

JBucc
06-18-2006, 10:33 PM
SPAM!!!OSCAR MAYER!!!!!!

JBucc
06-18-2006, 10:34 PM
I'll be sure to pimp it out on a few other sights. Sites, I mean.

Monkeylook4food
06-18-2006, 10:39 PM
You and the other boards on the scout network are next. I'll probably hit a division or two a week.

Cool.

cdcox
06-18-2006, 10:43 PM
I'll be sure to pimp it out on a few other sights. Sites, I mean.

It would be great if you hit the Tampa Bay sites.



















(cross thread humor)

JBucc
06-18-2006, 10:44 PM
It would be great if you hit the Tampa Bay sites.



















(cross thread humor)I am a Chiefs fan, I swear!

alnorth
06-18-2006, 10:52 PM
Hey, if we had a 4% chace of winning the Super Bowl for each of the last 46 years, there is a 85% chance we would have won one since 1970.

That 4% is nothing to sneeze at.

I'm a professional math nerd, so I had to check this. You are correct, sir.

1- (.96^46)=1-.1529=.8471

Monkeylook4food
06-18-2006, 11:00 PM
2 math nerds on one thread? I'm outa here.

HMc
06-18-2006, 11:03 PM
how do 46 years and 1970 go together?

cdcox
06-18-2006, 11:05 PM
2 math nerds on one thread? I'm outa here.

DanT is in a whole differnent class than me. Then there is the kid who was going to MIT (who was that?). Rain Man is no slouch either, and there are a couple others I'm leaving out. We're every where.

cdcox
06-18-2006, 11:06 PM
how do 46 years and 1970 go together?

36... 46... they're all the same to me.

alnorth
06-18-2006, 11:07 PM
how do 46 years and 1970 go together?

I'm only using the data supplied to me. If we use 36 years, our chances decrease to about 77%

alnorth
06-18-2006, 11:11 PM
DanT is in a whole differnent class than me. Then there is the kid who was going to MIT (who was that?). Rain Man is no slouch either, and there are a couple others I'm leaving out. We're every where.

Cool!

When people ask me what I do and I say "Actuary", they get this blank look on their face and then we have to go into this big conversation about how probability and the law of big numbers works for insurance, etc. So, I sometimes say that I'm just a professional math nerd.

Rain Man
06-18-2006, 11:31 PM
Cool. I can't wait to check it out.

cdcox
06-19-2006, 12:57 AM
Here are the game by game projected odds for all the Chiefs games.

60% chance of beating Cincinnati
36% chance of beating Denver (road)
81% chance of beating SF
50% chance of beating Arizona (road)
35% chance of beating Pittsburgh (road)
66% chance of beating SD
58% chance of beating Seattle
54% chance of beating St. Louis (road)
44% chance of beating Miami (road)
75% chance of beating Oakland
56% chance of beating Denver
52% chance of beating Cleveland (road)
68% chance of beating Baltimore
46% chance of beating SD (road)
56% cyance of beating Oakland(road)
62% chance of beating Jacksonville

So we are favored in every home game and 3 of the road games. Another road game is 50-50.

What think thee, homers?

CupidStunt
06-19-2006, 05:03 AM
Our lowest percentage should always be Denver (road) imo. That is unless we get another '85 Bears on our schedule, or something.

Pittsburgh may be better than Denver, but not by a large margin and their home-field advantage stinks. There's also no long, lackluster history of sucking pole on their turf, either.

Just looking at a couple:

- Cincy should be higher; 60% would be fair enough if Palmer was a confirmed, healthy starter.

- Denver should be lower, and definitely the lowest. I wouldn't give us better than a 1-in-4 chance of winning there.

- San Fran higher at home. 90% I would go for. I don't bet but i'd bet on that game.

- San Diego a little lower. I'd definitely have them at a lower percentage than Cincy, no question. 60% would be fair.

- Miami higher. They're just not near as good as billed imo. 50% would be fine with me. Toss-up game. Their home-field adv. after September is marginal.

StcChief
06-19-2006, 07:25 AM
60% chance of beating Cincinnati
36% chance of beating Denver (road)
81% chance of beating SF
50% chance of beating Arizona (road)
35% chance of beating Pittsburgh (road)
66% chance of beating SD
58% chance of beating Seattle
54% chance of beating St. Louis (road)
44% chance of beating Miami (road)
75% chance of beating Oakland
56% chance of beating Denver
52% chance of beating Cleveland (road)
68% chance of beating Baltimore
46% chance of beating SD (road)
56% cyance of beating Oakland(road)
62% chance of beating Jacksonville

Cincy - 60% w/o Palmer 70%
Denver road - 25-30% maybe the worm will turn this year.
Arizona - road. depending on the heat.. better team now...40-45%
Pittsurgh - assumes Big Ben back. 35% w/o 40-45% their Homefield sucks
Seattle - home 50%. Still in SB last year good team
STL - road 55-60% their home field is iffy. Loud cross state
deal. Need some KC Chiefs fan road trippers...

Everything else seems ok.

cdcox
06-19-2006, 09:07 AM
Our lowest percentage should always be Denver (road) imo. That is unless we get another '85 Bears on our schedule, or something.

Pittsburgh may be better than Denver, but not by a large margin and their home-field advantage stinks. There's also no long, lackluster history of sucking pole on their turf, either.

Just looking at a couple:

- Cincy should be higher; 60% would be fair enough if Palmer was a confirmed, healthy starter.

- Denver should be lower, and definitely the lowest. I wouldn't give us better than a 1-in-4 chance of winning there.

- San Fran higher at home. 90% I would go for. I don't bet but i'd bet on that game.

- San Diego a little lower. I'd definitely have them at a lower percentage than Cincy, no question. 60% would be fair.

- Miami higher. They're just not near as good as billed imo. 50% would be fine with me. Toss-up game. Their home-field adv. after September is marginal.

This is a good, realistic take. The game probabilities are based on the over/under betting lines for regular season wins, so they represent the collective mind set of the betting public. I also haven't put in anything to account for matchup histories, such as a strong tendency for the home team to win the KC-Denver game. It would be difficult to keep up with all of these trends on a league-wide basis, and programming them would take some thought as how to do it in an intelligent manner.

You can actually adjust the game outcome probabilities this year. Just move the slider on the "Advance Analysis" tab to reflect what you think the probabilities are, then do the forecast as normal. I ran yours and it didn't affect the end of season results very much at all, since you had some probabilities going up and some going down.

cdcox
06-19-2006, 09:08 AM
Cincy - 60% w/o Palmer 70%
Denver road - 25-30% maybe the worm will turn this year.
Arizona - road. depending on the heat.. better team now...40-45%
Pittsurgh - assumes Big Ben back. 35% w/o 40-45% their Homefield sucks
Seattle - home 50%. Still in SB last year good team
STL - road 55-60% their home field is iffy. Loud cross state
deal. Need some KC Chiefs fan road trippers...

Everything else seems ok.

Yep, good takes.