PDA

View Full Version : Your Best Guess: What happens on Nov. 7?


banyon
06-23-2006, 08:11 AM
How do you think the Congressional elections will play out (not how you want them to turn out)?

mlyonsd
06-23-2006, 08:16 AM
Repubs hold both houses but with a slimmer margin.

banyon
06-23-2006, 08:18 AM
Repubs hold both houses but with a slimmer margin.

Yeah, the instant I created the poll I realized I'd forgotten to include that option. :banghead:

Radar Chief
06-23-2006, 08:19 AM
I値l begin a mild regiment of fast地 in preparation for turkey day.

Oh, you mean politically. Pfft, got me. ;)

Cochise
06-23-2006, 08:20 AM
Not much will change.

HerculesRockefell
06-23-2006, 08:21 AM
Repubs retain control, the numbers will be right around the same as now.

mlyonsd
06-23-2006, 08:32 AM
Yeah, the instant I created the poll I realized I'd forgotten to include that option. :banghead:

It's all good.

It should be fun to bump it back to the top after the elections just so everyone can be graded. I really don't have a clue what will happen and was just being obstinate. :)

Mr. Kotter
06-23-2006, 08:50 AM
Repubs retain control, the numbers will be right around the same as now.
It's early, and things could change of course, but... with "safe" districts and seats it's gonna be tough for the Dems to take both the Senate and the House.

I agree with you, for the most part, Hercules.....but the Republican numbers could decrease slightly. They will likely keep the Senate and I suspect they will retain control of the House too, but probably lose some seats.

banyon
06-23-2006, 09:12 AM
Here's a couple of interesting projections...


Senate-part 1

http://www.electionprojection.com/images/SenateMap06.gif
Summary of Senate Races

______________________________________________

State Major Candidates Projected Result

Arizona Jon Kyl (R)-inc vs Jim Pederson (D) Strong GOP Hold
California Dianne Feinstein (D)-inc vs ??? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Connecticut Joseph Lieberman? (D)-inc vs ??? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Delaware Tom Carper (D)-inc vs Jan Ting? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Florida Bill Nelson (D)-inc vs Katherine Harris? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Hawaii Daniel Akaka? (D)-inc vs ??? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Indiana Richard Lugar (R)-inc (unopposed) Strong GOP Hold
Maine Olympia Snowe (R)-inc vs ??? (D) Strong GOP Hold
Maryland OPEN: ??? (D) vs Michael Steele? (R) Weak DEM Hold
Massachusetts Ted Kennedy (D)-inc vs ??? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D)-inc vs ??? (R) Weak DEM Hold
Minnesota OPEN: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs Mark Kennedy (R) Weak DEM Hold
Mississippi Trent Lott (R)-inc vs ??? (D) Strong GOP Hold
Missouri Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak GOP Hold
Montana Conrad Burns? (R)-inc vs ??? (D) Weak DEM Gain
Nebraska Ben Nelson (D)-inc vs Peter Ricketts (R) Weak DEM Hold
Nevada John Ensign (R)-inc vs Jack Carter (D) Strong GOP Hold
New Jersey Robert Menendez (D)-inc vs Tom Kean, Jr. (R) Weak DEM Hold
New Mexico Jeff Bingaman (D)-inc vs ??? (R) Strong DEM Hold
New York Hillary Clinton (D)-inc vs ??? (R) Strong DEM Hold
North Dakota Kent Conrad (DNL)-inc vs Doug Burgum? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Ohio Mike DeWine (R)-inc vs Sherrod Brown (D) DeWine +3.7
Pennsylvania Rick Santorum (R)-inc vs Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Weak DEM Gain
Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee? (R)-inc vs ??? (D) Weak GOP Hold
Tennessee OPEN: ??? (R) vs Harold Ford, Jr.? (D) Weak GOP Hold
Texas Kay Hutchinson (R)-inc vs Barbara Radnofsky (D) Strong GOP Hold
Utah Orrin Hatch (R)-inc vs Pete Ashdown (D) Strong GOP Hold
Vermont OPEN: B. Sanders (I) vs ??? (R) vs L. Drown (D) Strong IND Hold
Virginia George Allen (R)-inc vs ??? (D) Strong GOP Hold
Washington Maria Cantwell (D)-inc vs Mike McGavick? (R) Weak DEM Hold
West Virginia Robert Byrd (D)-inc vs John Raese (R) Strong DEM Hold
Wisconsin Herb Kohl (D)-inc vs ??? (R) Strong DEM Hold
Wyoming Craig Thomas (R)-inc vs Dale Groutage (D) Strong GOP Hold

BucEyedPea
06-23-2006, 09:15 AM
I don't know if Nelson is a strong Dem hold in Florida.
I could care less about either of 'em anyway.

I am considering not voting for my Republican Rep, changed over from redistricting....solely because he is still proud of going into Iraq!

banyon
06-23-2006, 09:18 AM
http://www.electionprojection.com/images/HouseMap06.gif

Part 2

Summary of Contested House Races


State Major Candidates Projected Result
Arizona - CD 5 J.D. Hayworth (R)-inc vs Harry Mitchell? (D) Weak GOP Hold
Arizona - CD 8 OPEN: ??? (R) vs ??? (D) Weak GOP Hold
Colorado - CD 3 John Salazar (D)-inc vs Scott Tipton? (R) Weak DEM Hold
Colorado - CD 7 OPEN: R. O'Donnell (R) vs E. Perlmutter? (D) Weak DEM Gain
Connecticut - CD 2 Rob Simmons (R)-inc vs Joe Courtney (D) Weak GOP Hold
Connecticut - CD 4 Christopher Shays (R)-inc vs Diane Farrell (D) Weak GOP Hold
Florida - CD 22 Clay Shaw? (R)-inc vs Ron Klein (D) Weak GOP Hold
Georgia - CD 8 Jim Marshall (D)-inc vs "Mac" Collins (R) Weak DEM Hold
Georgia - CD 12 John Barrow (D)-inc vs Max Burns (R) Weak DEM Hold
Illinois - CD 8 M. Bean (D)-inc vs D. McSweeney (R) Weak GOP Gain
Indiana - CD 8 John Hostettler (R)-inc vs Brad Ellsworth (D) Weak GOP Hold
Indiana - CD 9 Michael Sodrel (R)-inc vs Baron Hill (D) Weak GOP Hold
Iowa - CD 1 OPEN: ??? (R) vs ??? (D) Weak DEM Gain
Louisiana - CD 3 Charlie Melancon (D)-inc vs Craig Romero (R) Weak DEM Hold
Minnesota - CD 6 OPEN: ??? (R) vs Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) Weak GOP Hold
New Mexico - CD 1 Heather Wilson (R)-inc vs Patricia Madrid (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York - CD 24 OPEN: ??? (R) vs ??? (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York - CD 29 Randy Kuhl (R)-inc vs ??? (D) Weak GOP Hold
N. Carolina - CD 11 Charles Taylor (R)-inc vs Heath Shuler (D) Weak GOP Hold
Ohio - CD 6 OPEN: C. Wilson (D) vs C. Blasdel (R) Wilson +5.0
Ohio - CD 18 Robert Ney (R)-inc vs Zack Space (D) Ney +4.0
Pennsylvania - CD 6 Jim Gerlach (R)-inc vs Lois Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Vermont - CD 1 OPEN: P. Welch (D) vs M. Rainville? (R) Strng DEM Gain
Washington - CD 8 Dan Reichert (R)-inc vs Darcy Burner? (D) Weak GOP Hold
Wisconsin - CD 8 OPEN: ??? (R) vs ??? (D) Weak GOP Hold

banyon
06-23-2006, 09:31 AM
Tennessee OPEN: ??? (R) vs Harold Ford, Jr.? (D) Weak GOP Hold

speaking from my knowledge of TN politics, I would bet $$ that this projection is wrong.

Ford is extremely well connected and has deep pockets, thanks to his criminal daddy. But I have hopes that he's his own man. He's pretty savvy too.

But it's pretty telling that Republicans aren't exactly lining up to take a crack at him.

banyon
06-23-2006, 09:32 AM
Missouri Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak GOP Hold

How about this race? I think McCaskill's got a real shot of taking Talent down.

HerculesRockefell
06-23-2006, 09:49 AM
I think Steele and Kennedy have pretty good shots at picking up the MD and MN seats.

And a big Thank You goes out to Liddy Dole for the shit job she did in recruiting candidates for the Senate races. Nelson and Byrd were beatable if the Reps had put up decent candidates.

banyon
06-23-2006, 10:01 AM
I think Steele and Kennedy have pretty good shots at picking up the MD and MN seats.

And a big Thank You goes out to Liddy Dole for the shit job she did in recruiting candidates for the Senate races. Nelson and Byrd were beatable if the Reps had put up decent candidates.

Nelson, maybe, but Byrd?! He's as old as the WV hills. He's gotten those poor hillbillies grant money for too long to be stopped at the finish line.

SBK
06-23-2006, 10:01 AM
Here's what I think. The dems won't pick up crap, but will be all over the news talking about their big "win."

HerculesRockefell
06-23-2006, 10:12 AM
Nelson, maybe, but Byrd?! He's as old as the WV hills. He's gotten those poor hillbillies grant money for too long to be stopped at the finish line.

Before she said she wasn't running, Capito was polling within a couple points when she wasn't even campaigning for the seat. Byrd would not have walked to re-election against her.

patteeu
06-24-2006, 08:25 AM
Repubs hold both houses but with a slimmer margin.

Ditto

recxjake
06-24-2006, 08:45 AM
It's to early to tell... heck if Bin Laden is killed that could changed everything....

Here's a good polling site...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Election%20Polls%202006.htm

Nightwish
06-24-2006, 09:58 AM
Missouri Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak GOP Hold
KMOV 4 last night revealed the results of the most recent St. Louis Post Dispatch poll, conducted in St. Louis County, and it showed McCaskill with a commanding lead over Talent, at least in this county (and an even more commanding lead in the city). She leads him by about 50 points in the city of St. Louis, and by 12 points in the county. Of course, St. Louis tends to lean left, so I don't know how indicative that is of the overall Missouri political climate.

Nightwish
06-24-2006, 10:02 AM
Here's what I hope. The dems won't pick up crap, but will be all over the news talking about their big "win."
Fixed your post for you.

recxjake
06-24-2006, 10:07 AM
KMOV 4 last night revealed the results of the most recent St. Louis Post Dispatch poll, conducted in St. Louis County, and it showed McCaskill with a commanding lead over Talent, at least in this county (and an even more commanding lead in the city). She leads him by about 50 points in the city of St. Louis, and by 12 points in the county. Of course, St. Louis tends to lean left, so I don't know how indicative that is of the overall Missouri political climate.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/Missouri%20Senate%20May.htm

HC_Chief
06-24-2006, 10:09 AM
The lefties will gnash teeth and throw hissy fits due to their lack of power in both houses.

Leftist rags *cough* New York Times *cough*LA Times will print conspiracy theories and articles about "...Americans <i>really</i> believe in the same things as the Dems (whatever that is), but voters were blocked by gestapo tactics" and more of the ever-laughable "...narow victory spells certain doom for Republicans".

The dems have brought it upon themselves: by being weak, linguini-spined surrender monkeys with no message other than "I don't like W". The more they move to their "base" (i.e. extreme leftist nutjobs), the more they alienate the MAJORITY of voters.

Nightwish
06-24-2006, 10:17 AM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/Missouri%20Senate%20May.htmThat poll is a month and a half old. The Post-Dispatch poll is fresh. But as I said, it's only for one county, and a generally left-leaning county at that, so I wouldn't rely on it as indicative. But neither would I rely on a rasmussen poll from the beginning of May.

Nightwish
06-24-2006, 10:22 AM
The lefties will gnash teeth and throw hissy fits due to their lack of power in both houses.

Leftist rags *cough* New York Times *cough*LA Times will print conspiracy theories and articles about "...Americans really believe in the same things as the Dems (whatever that is), but voters were blocked by gestapo tactics" and more of the ever-laughable "...narow victory spells certain doom for Republicans".

The dems have brought it upon themselves: by being weak, linguini-spined surrender monkeys with no message other than "I don't like W". The more they move to their "base" (i.e. extreme leftist nutjobs), the more they alienate the MAJORITY of voters.
If the Dems do happen to take one or both houses, do you worry that you'll look like an idiot after a post like this? Or do you think we'll see right-wing rags *cough* Fox News *cough* Washington Times *cough* Newsmax *cough* Weekly Standard printing conspiracy theories about "... Americans really believe in the same things as Republicans, but voters were blocked by the left-wing media gestapo?"

Logical
06-24-2006, 03:55 PM
Other,

Dems will gain seats in both Senate and House but not control.

banyon
09-18-2006, 01:25 PM
Pre-election 1 1/2 month bump.

banyon
09-18-2006, 01:26 PM
Anyone wish to change their mind?

I think I should switch from Dem Senate to Dem House, probably.

Radar Chief
09-18-2006, 01:29 PM
Anyone wish to change their mind?

I think I should switch from Dem Senate to Dem House, probably.

Naw, I値l stick with this one. ;)

I値l begin a mild regiment of fast地 in preparation for turkey day.

Oh, you mean politically. Pfft, got me. ;)

Mr. Kotter
09-18-2006, 01:35 PM
It's early, and things could change of course, but... with "safe" districts and seats it's gonna be tough for the Dems to take both the Senate and the House.

I agree with you, for the most part, Hercules.....but the Republican numbers could decrease slightly. They will likely keep the Senate and I suspect they will retain control of the House too, but probably lose some seats.
Republican numbers will decrease in the House; by 10-11 it appears....the question is, can they pick up the other 4-5 seats they need for control. Maybe. Right now, I'd say they are not quite there. They've got 6 weeks to find win 5 more seats than I think they presently "have"....

Republican numbers will decrease by 2 or 3 in the Senate. If the Democrats can HOLD NJ though, they may have an outside shot.....but getting six seats will be tough.

jiveturkey
09-18-2006, 01:38 PM
Republican numbers will decrease in the House; by 10-11 it appears....the question is, can they pick up the other 4-5 seats they need for control. Maybe. Right now, I'd say they are not quite there. They've got 6 weeks to find win 5 more seats than I think they presently "have"....

Republican numbers will decrease by 2 or 3 in the Senate. If the Democrats can HOLD NJ though, they may have an outside shot.....but getting six seats will be tough.Yep

oldandslow
09-18-2006, 01:44 PM
I think Steele and Kennedy have pretty good shots at picking up the MD and MN seats.

And a big Thank You goes out to Liddy Dole for the shit job she did in recruiting candidates for the Senate races. Nelson and Byrd were beatable if the Reps had put up decent candidates.

And you would be wrong...esp about Kennedy. Byrd brings home the bacon and will always win and Nelson is Nelson - a real blue dog democrat that always tend to do well in the upper midwest.

StcChief
09-18-2006, 02:25 PM
Missouri Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak GOP Hold

How about this race? I think McCaskill's got a real shot of taking Talent down.

The MO dumb asses that elected the dead guy....Carnahan,
Wifey was a one term, no hit wonder...... :rolleyes:

I still think Talent stays in.

Clair better go audit something.

patteeu
09-18-2006, 03:04 PM
I've stated my position many times. It will be a monumental failure if the dems don't take control. I'm expecting them to be up to the task so I'll stick with continuing Republican majorities with slimmer margins.

Cochise
09-18-2006, 03:08 PM
KMOV 4 last night revealed the results of the most recent St. Louis Post Dispatch poll, conducted in St. Louis County, and it showed McCaskill with a commanding lead over Talent, at least in this county (and an even more commanding lead in the city). She leads him by about 50 points in the city of St. Louis, and by 12 points in the county. Of course, St. Louis tends to lean left, so I don't know how indicative that is of the overall Missouri political climate.

McCaskill is leading in St. Louis County.

In other news, a majority of people in Arrowhead Stadium would vote for the Chiefs to win the super bowl.

Cochise
09-18-2006, 03:16 PM
I've stated my position many times. It will be a monumental failure if the dems don't take control. I'm expecting them to be up to the task so I'll stick with continuing Republican majorities with slimmer margins.

As vulnerable as Bush was in 2004, the fact that they still couldn't get it done makes me not so sure they'll get it done this time either.

I mean, what's really changed since 2004? The issue is still going to be Iraq. They didn't win on that one last time. Why would it work this time? I haven't seen any different talking points than there were back then.

Are people like Pelosi running around squawking that they are going to clog congress up for the next 2 years with a bunch of face-contorting investigations of the Bush administration that won't amount to anything but wasting bazillions of dollars and all the government's energy - are those things supposed to make voters excited? Because I don't think anybody wants to see that.

They didn't have an issue last time besides "Bush sucks and we suck less". Why would it work this time?

I have a hard time believing it. Maybe they will be incontrol of both houses and liberal utopia will ensue. I don't buy into the idea that it's so automatic.

Logical
09-18-2006, 04:47 PM
As vulnerable as Bush was in 2004, the fact that they still couldn't get it done makes me not so sure they'll get it done this time either.

I mean, what's really changed since 2004? The issue is still going to be Iraq. They didn't win on that one last time. Why would it work this time? I haven't seen any different talking points than there were back then.

Are people like Pelosi running around squawking that they are going to clog congress up for the next 2 years with a bunch of face-contorting investigations of the Bush administration that won't amount to anything but wasting bazillions of dollars and all the government's energy - are those things supposed to make voters excited? Because I don't think anybody wants to see that.

They didn't have an issue last time besides "Bush sucks and we suck less". Why would it work this time?

I have a hard time believing it. Maybe they will be incontrol of both houses and liberal utopia will ensue. I don't buy into the idea that it's so automatic.

If the right seats in the Senate were up for election the Senate could be easily overturned on that issue. However, timing is bad and 90 to 95% of all the Senate seats up are safe for both the Republican and Democratic incumbents. A two vote swing is about the most we can expect.

dirk digler
09-18-2006, 06:30 PM
Repubs hold both houses but with a slimmer margin.

Yep I agree

banyon
10-27-2006, 09:10 AM
11 days to go-Bump.

NewChief
10-27-2006, 09:17 AM
I'm with the others that think Dems will gain seats, but not control. Color me pessimistic.

banyon
10-27-2006, 09:23 AM
Now I think I had it backwards on which House was gonna flip, but that's what most pollsters are saying anyway.

Mr. Kotter
10-27-2006, 09:35 AM
Now I think I had it backwards on which House was gonna flip, but that's what most pollsters are saying anyway.
So, are you saying House or Senate flips....?

The way I'm hearing it, the House sounds the more likely of the two. For the Dems to take 2 outta 3 from MO, TN, and VA....that will be pretty tough.

Speaker Pelosi? Wow. That will be entertaining. :)

banyon
10-27-2006, 09:50 AM
So, are you saying House or Senate flips....?

The way I'm hearing it, the House sounds the more likely of the two. For the Dems to take 2 outta 3 from MO, TN, and VA....that will be pretty tough.

Speaker Pelosi? Wow. That will be entertaining. :)


Yeah, I'm agreeing with you, except that I think they'll pick someone new as speaker.

Adept Havelock
10-27-2006, 04:08 PM
Yeah, I'm agreeing with you, except that I think they'll pick someone new as speaker.


I'm not so sure. She's actually got the Dems in the house organized and voting as a block around 90% of the time, for better or worse. :shrug:

banyon
11-09-2006, 08:42 AM
Here is what DC thought in June.

Taco John
11-09-2006, 08:46 AM
Holy cow. I can't believe there was anyone stupid enough to think that the Repubs would pick up larger majorities in both houses. Talk about not being out of touch with reality.

Radar Chief
11-09-2006, 08:47 AM
Talk about not being out of touch with reality.

:LOL: Aw, never mind. I knew what'cha meant. ROFL