PDA

View Full Version : hey you real estate experts...


bogie
06-23-2006, 03:51 PM
What can we home owners expect to happen in the housing market in the next year or two or 3? It seems like housing is on a slight decline right now. I'm going to stay in my house at least another 3 years because of a great school system. I suspect I'll be ready to sell by then. I wonder where real estate value will be in 3 years here in sunny southern California?

StcChief
06-23-2006, 03:52 PM
California could go either way, but likely will go up some.

I don't know why anyone would live out there.

bogie
06-23-2006, 03:56 PM
California could go either way, but likely will go up some.

I don't know why anyone would live out there.

It's a pretty big state.

SBK
06-23-2006, 04:00 PM
We are in the midst of a market correction. If I were you I would plan on watching my house decline in value to where it actually should be, and in California that could be hard to watch.

On the plus side, if you are going to be looking for deals soon, there will be lots of em!

Brock
06-23-2006, 04:01 PM
You own the best of the best, as far as real estate goes. Unless the big one knocks it down, you aren't going to lose money.

chagrin
06-23-2006, 04:02 PM
What you are about to read, is about 90% specualtion based upon experience in the industry, where I had clients in New York City, California (Northern and Southern) and Florida, not to mention about 20 other states...

1 to 3 years

ROFL

Dude, depending on the area, you will see ebb and tide of value and asking price. For example, up in the Upper Penninsula of Michigan, the lots are going for anywhere from 85,000-175,000.

In North Carolina you can buy a lot for 40,000, of course it's on a mountainside in the middle of nowhere.

Florida, buyers are routinely buttraped by greedy, stuck up homeowners, and I can only speak for my region (Central Florida including Lake, Seminole, Orange, Volusia) but the prices steadily increase and the word is, about 12-16 months things will "stabilize", but I don't believe it.

In New York, I recently did a purchase for a family in Manhattan, a 841 Square Foot townhome, for 660,000, and up in Rochester, New York - I did a purchase for 151,000 for a 1700 Square Foot, 2 level home. Rochester, was voted in the top 3 towns for single men in their 30s to live for its economy, housing and ratio of women to men. It's gold up there, Gold!!

Anyway, my assessment is that "experts" will say whatever they can right now to get their "points" across, but it can do anything at any time, with small trends here and there.

bogie
06-23-2006, 04:03 PM
You own the best of the best, as far as real estate goes. Unless the big one knocks it down, you aren't going to lose money.

I know I'm in a good area, it sure is nice to hear someone confirm that though.

bogie
06-23-2006, 04:09 PM
What you are about to read, is about 90% specualtion based upon experience in the industry, where I had clients in New York City, California (Northern and Southern) and Florida, not to mention about 20 other states...

1 to 3 years

ROFL

Dude, depending on the area, you will see ebb and tide of value and asking price. For example, up in the Upper Penninsula of Michigan, the lots are going for anywhere from 85,000-175,000.

In North Carolina you can buy a lot for 40,000, of course it's on a mountainside in the middle of nowhere.

Florida, buyers are routinely buttraped by greedy, stuck up homeowners, and I can only speak for my region (Central Florida including Lake, Seminole, Orange, Volusia) but the prices steadily increase and the word is, about 12-16 months things will "stabilize", but I don't believe it.

In New York, I recently did a purchase for a family in Manhattan, a 841 Square Foot townhome, for 660,000, and up in Rochester, New York - I did a purchase for 151,000 for a 1700 Square Foot, 2 level home. Rochester, was voted in the top 3 towns for single men in their 30s to live for its economy, housing and ratio of women to men. It's gold up there, Gold!!

Anyway, my assessment is that "experts" will say whatever they can right now to get their "points" across, but it can do anything at any time, with small trends here and there.

Sounds like Rochester is the place to invest. If only I were in my 30's or single.

SLAG
06-23-2006, 04:11 PM
I plan to be buying a house in Lawrence within the few Months.. any tips?

I plan on using the Lawrence Land Trust Program as well

StcChief
06-23-2006, 04:14 PM
buddy move to Rochester in 1980 (Kodak)....
Loves it up there, family is near by which helps.

Winter though...can you say lake effect snow and Norester....

Plus you get the Buffalo Bills

chagrin
06-23-2006, 04:17 PM
buddy move to Rochester in 1980 (Kodak)....
Loves it up there, family is near by which helps.

Winter though...can you say lake effect snow and Norester....

Plus you get the Buffalo Bills

I agree, I have never been as cold as there, but St. Paul was close.

It is a very cool place, the people enjoy living there, they are friendly and good food everywhere.

DaneMcCloud
06-23-2006, 04:23 PM
What can we home owners expect to happen in the housing market in the next year or two or 3? It seems like housing is on a slight decline right now. I'm going to stay in my house at least another 3 years because of a great school system. I suspect I'll be ready to sell by then. I wonder where real estate value will be in 3 years here in sunny southern California?

In Hollywood, Santa Monica, Beverly Hill and Silverlake, the average yearly increase has been around 25% per year for the past three years. I follow this market closely and have a few interests around town as well. The main question is this - is your house artificially inflated by the rising home prices i.e. a 400k house in 2002 that's now estimated at 1 million, or a 1.2 million dollar home now worth 2.5 and up? The larger homes in those areas (4 bedroom 3 bathroom and up) aren't going to lose much value, even if there is another Northridge type earthquake because of the desirable location (throw Manhattan Beach in there as well as Pac Palisides and Malibu). But if your home doesn't fall into category two, I'd say there's a chance that you "might" not be able to get as much as right now if something catastrophic were to occur.

For example, there was a house on my street last year that sold for $800k and the new owner put in another 150k in upgrades and repairs. His home is 950 square foot and has no garage. Now, if something were to happen, he'd lose his ass. My home is 3,300 square foot, 4 beds/5 baths and is four stories tall with balconies on every floor and every room. I might lose some equity in a big quake, but mine would build back up very quickly.

Also with the revitalaztion of Hollywood, my home has increased a little more than than average. Having 700 square foot condos going for $1.2 million just down the street in several locations (and they're all sold out and not even close to being finished) along with a new W Hotel going up at the corner of Hollywood & Vine (and other high end hotels starting to pop up), I'll probably continue to see significant yearly increase.

But for the most part, as long as your not in a completely undesirable place, you'll probably be okay.

PM if you have any questions. I have some very close friends that do residential and corporate real estate here SoCal and could probably answer any questions that I might not be able to answer.

But you probably don't have anything to worry about.

redbrian
06-23-2006, 04:26 PM
With global warming and the melting ice caps, your screwed, sell now before the property is under water.

bogie
06-23-2006, 05:00 PM
In Hollywood, Santa Monica, Beverly Hill and Silverlake, the average yearly increase has been around 25% per year for the past three years. I follow this market closely and have a few interests around town as well. The main question is this - is your house artificially inflated by the rising home prices i.e. a 400k house in 2002 that's now estimated at 1 million, or a 1.2 million dollar home now worth 2.5 and up? The larger homes in those areas (4 bedroom 3 bathroom and up) aren't going to lose much value, even if there is another Northridge type earthquake because of the desirable location (throw Manhattan Beach in there as well as Pac Palisides and Malibu). But if your home doesn't fall into category two, I'd say there's a chance that you "might" not be able to get as much as right now if something catastrophic were to occur.

For example, there was a house on my street last year that sold for $800k and the new owner put in another 150k in upgrades and repairs. His home is 950 square foot and has no garage. Now, if something were to happen, he'd lose his ass. My home is 3,300 square foot, 4 beds/5 baths and is four stories tall with balconies on every floor and every room. I might lose some equity in a big quake, but mine would build back up very quickly.

Also with the revitalaztion of Hollywood, my home has increased a little more than than average. Having 700 square foot condos going for $1.2 million just down the street in several locations (and they're all sold out and not even close to being finished) along with a new W Hotel going up at the corner of Hollywood & Vine (and other high end hotels starting to pop up), I'll probably continue to see significant yearly increase.

But for the most part, as long as your not in a completely undesirable place, you'll probably be okay.

PM if you have any questions. I have some very close friends that do residential and corporate real estate here SoCal and could probably answer any questions that I might not be able to answer.

But you probably don't have anything to worry about.

I'm in the valley, specifically Studio City. This area has gone crazy over the past several years. I bought my house almost 8 years ago. I'm confident I'll do okay when I sell, but I doubt it will worth as much in 3 years. When I see comparable houses in the neighborhood selling in the mid $900's it makes me re-think my priorities.

bogie
06-23-2006, 05:02 PM
With global warming and the melting ice caps, your screwed, sell now before the property is under water.

I've been thinking about moving to New Orleans.

DaneMcCloud
06-23-2006, 05:26 PM
I'm in the valley, specifically Studio City. This area has gone crazy over the past several years. I bought my house almost 8 years ago. I'm confident I'll do okay when I sell, but I doubt it will worth as much in 3 years. When I see comparable houses in the neighborhood selling in the mid $900's it makes me re-think my priorities.

That's a pretty desirable area because of studio access, so I doubt you'll see any decrease, whatsoever. Are you north of the boulevard or south?

If you aren't aware, there are some serious developing going on in North Hollywood. That's become the "it" spot to buy, renovate and flip because of new condos and an outdoor "Grove" type area going up. That's the next big boom area, so I think that as long as your house has been "updated" recently (nice kitchen/granite/stainless steel), the bathrooms have been updated and the general area is nice, you'll probably see an even greater increase in your home value. And if your neighbors are doing or have done the same, your "comp" value will rise.

Zillow.com is a good website to estimate your home's value. For instance though, my home's current value doesn't take into account that Cuttino just bought a new 4 million dollar home, 4 doors down or that 8 new "view" homes are going up behind me, all starting at $3 million plus. You can also go to Zimas.org to check on the closing prices of homes that have been sold in your area.

I think you're probably fine, Dude. Unless you WANT to cash out and leave SoCal.

bogie
06-23-2006, 06:15 PM
That's a pretty desirable area because of studio access, so I doubt you'll see any decrease, whatsoever. Are you north of the boulevard or south?

If you aren't aware, there are some serious developing going on in North Hollywood. That's become the "it" spot to buy, renovate and flip because of new condos and an outdoor "Grove" type area going up. That's the next big boom area, so I think that as long as your house has been "updated" recently (nice kitchen/granite/stainless steel), the bathrooms have been updated and the general area is nice, you'll probably see an even greater increase in your home value. And if your neighbors are doing or have done the same, your "comp" value will rise.

Zillow.com is a good website to estimate your home's value. For instance though, my home's current value doesn't take into account that Cuttino just bought a new 4 million dollar home, 4 doors down or that 8 new "view" homes are going up behind me, all starting at $3 million plus. You can also go to Zimas.org to check on the closing prices of homes that have been sold in your area.

I think you're probably fine, Dude. Unless you WANT to cash out and leave SoCal.

I'm on the north side of the boulevard. No latter where I live, I seem to end up on the wrong side of the tracks!
I knew N. Hollywod was improving but didn't know it was the "it" place now.
I don't want to cash out and leave SoCal. I love this place. My daughters is in a great school, I walk to Whitsett Golf course (9 hole, par 3), Ventura Blvd, etc. But knowing that I can get a great return on my investment right now and not doing it is kinda hard for me to swallow. What area do you live in?

Rain Man
06-23-2006, 06:39 PM
I've been thinking about moving to New Orleans.

Sell high, buy low. Good strategy.

DaneMcCloud
06-23-2006, 09:56 PM
I'm on the north side of the boulevard. No latter where I live, I seem to end up on the wrong side of the tracks!
I knew N. Hollywod was improving but didn't know it was the "it" place now.
I don't want to cash out and leave SoCal. I love this place. My daughters is in a great school, I walk to Whitsett Golf course (9 hole, par 3), Ventura Blvd, etc. But knowing that I can get a great return on my investment right now and not doing it is kinda hard for me to swallow. What area do you live in?

Yeah, Adam Corolla even had it as a topic a few weeks back, and several people called in to talk about buying and flipping properties in NoHo. There's nothing left to flip over here, unless you want to spend over a million on some dump that has a view and take it down to the studs (that's if the termites haven't gotten to it).

It's kinda confusing but I live in an area called the Hollywood Dell. The Lake Hollywood dam is right behind me, but I don't live in Lake Hollywood Estates. The nearest major cross streets are Franklin and Cahuenga, but we're up in the hills.

Anyway, it sounds like you're in good shape but it's probably wise to keep up on the trends and periodically check Zillow and Zimas.

Good luck.