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View Full Version : Time to talk horseraces - McCaskill v Talent


oldandslow
06-26-2006, 11:50 AM
Latest polls have McCaskill up 6%...49-43 3.5% MOE

If dems have a prayer to retake the Senate they must win this race.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/stlouiscitycounty/story/8CD39743858142E086257197005F0EAB?OpenDocument

Pitt Gorilla
06-26-2006, 12:25 PM
I'd probably take the "anybody but Talent" candidate.

oldandslow
06-26-2006, 12:32 PM
Pitt -

Why?

I admit I haven't lived in MO for a long time, but how is Talent different than Bond?

Nightwish
06-26-2006, 02:12 PM
I think the deciding factor is going to be the public's, particularly the swing voters response to the parties themselves, rather than anything intrinsic in the merits of the individual candidates. In the polls, they were pretty much neck-and-neck, even when Talent was still leading. If the GOP pulls a rabbit out of its hat, or pulls off a major ploy, in Iraq so that public sentiment swings back in their favor, Talent will win. If not, McCaskill will win. That's my prediction.

Cochise
06-26-2006, 02:18 PM
If the GOP pulls a rabbit out of its hat, or pulls off a major ploy, in Iraq so that public sentiment swings back in their favor, Talent will win.

If that logic holds water, then the 29 Senate Democrats and 126 House Democrats who also voted to authorize war would be in trouble as well. More so than Republicans with their bases- Talent's base was pro-war, whereas those authorizing Democrats' base was not.

I don't really see the voters of Missouri holding Senator Talent personally responsible for Iraq.

Pitt Gorilla
06-26-2006, 02:46 PM
Pitt -

Why?

I admit I haven't lived in MO for a long time, but how is Talent different than Bond?Eh, I don't know how many people will recall Talent's position on this issue, but I'm guessing some will.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/politics/14477202.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

Nightwish
06-26-2006, 03:14 PM
If that logic holds water, then the 29 Senate Democrats and 126 House Democrats who also voted to authorize war would be in trouble as well. More so than Republicans with their bases- Talent's base was pro-war, whereas those authorizing Democrats' base was not.

I don't really see the voters of Missouri holding Senator Talent personally responsible for Iraq.
I'm not saying they'll personally hold Talent responsible for Iraq. I'm saying that Iraq (and the other liabilities facing the GOP) may well be a sink or swim issue for both the GOP and Dem candidates, regardless who they are as individuals, because of their party affiliation. And you'll notice in my post I was talking mostly of swing voters, not the party base. Swing voters often decide elections, and if the GOP is still in trouble in November, then their candidates could be as well.

Bootlegged
06-26-2006, 03:32 PM
I give the edge to Murtha.